Help, Miranda! Help Help, Miranda!
Elite hitting prospects tend to carry the weight of their franchise’s future on their shoulders, sometimes deep into their careers. Byron Buxton held the Twins’ ultimate fate in his hands for almost a decade. Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Jose Miranda hope to lighten the load. Not to mention Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler are under contract through 2023 with club options beyond then. They might have done better to give that money to Jose Berrios, but time will tell. The baseball sphere was happy with the return, and I was surprised they pulled Joe Ryan from Tampa for Nelson Cruz. Ryan may never become Berrios, but he papers over at least a portion of that loss, and with another wave of help in the on-deck circle, things are looking up in Minnesota despite a down year in 2021.
Format: Position Player | Age on 4/1/2022 | Highest level played | ETA
1. 3B Jose Miranda | 23 | AAA | 2022
MLB Pipeline’s ninth ranked Minnesota prospect, Miranda is an elite right handed bat with all-fields power who checks in at a healthy 6’3” 210 lbs. He’s not a great defender, but Jimmy crack corn, and I don’t care. The hell does that song mean, anyway? Nevermind. I don’t care. And Miranda is such a good hitter that it doesn’t really matter what kind of defender he ultimately becomes. He’s not a second baseman, but he’s eligible there already in Fantrax leagues, and who knows he might keep the designation for a few seasons as Minnesota seeks places to put him in the lineup. In 127 games across two levels this year, Miranda slashed .340/.401/.572 with 32 home runs, 4 stolen bases, and just 74 strikeouts. Some approximation of that could probably help the Twins in 2022.
Here’s a link to Grey’s Jose Miranda, 2022 Fantasy Outlook.
2. RHP Joe Ryan | 25 | MLB | 2021
He’s been around a while and I’ve been aboard the bus (express) for so long I don’t have much left to say about Joe Ryan, a 6’2” 205 lb rotation piece the club took from Tampa for half a season of Nelson Cruz, who posted a .283 OBP and 96 wRC+ in 55 regular season games for the Rays, who could’ve just signed the slugger as a free agent after being linked to him in trade rumors for years.
To my eyes, he’s got three plus pitches with plus command and a rotation spot on lockdown. The list of arms I want more than Ryan in terms of cost-versus-value is vanishingly short. Here’s a link to Grey’s Joe Ryan, 2022 Fantasy Outlook.
3. SS Royce Lewis | 22 | AA | 2022
Still in step with the age-to-level curve after two missed seasons, Lewis could improve his dynasty stock more than anyone in 2022. I’m not betting on it, but I think it’s worth noting that few players offer comparable topside if viewed through the lens of present v. possible value. Victor Robles comes to mind. Trouble is these guys tend to cost quite a bit more than the average pure-upside-despite-results play. Or maybe it’s that these types of plays are kind of unique. There’s always one or two in the player pool. I’m curious about the year-over-year hit rate of the five-star prospect at his nadir. Would people even consider Buxton a hit at this point? I’d think so, but beauty is in the eye, or maybe the IL in this case, and in Buxton’s. Another problem I’m having here is that I don’t like Lewis in the batter’s box anywhere near as much as I liked/like Buxton. He’s all over the place. By which I just mean to say (again) that Buxton and Robles aren’t player comps for Lewis but situation comps.
I like to decide at some point in these blurbs whether I’d be buying or selling or whatever in dynasty leagues. The question is always nuanced. I’m not likely to trade for Lewis if I’m contending. I’ve got other issues to manage. Real on-field numbers matter more than anything. But if I’m taking over an abandoned team or starting a new dynasty, that makes Lewis more interesting. I’m most likely to acquire Lews in the second scenario, if the team who has him in whatever league I’m joining is open to offers. In a start-up draft, I’ll bet someone else snags the name before I’m through the major league player pool or more intriguing minor league players if the drafts are separate.
4. OF Austin Martin | 23 | AA | 2023
The Ferrari was more like an Oldsmobile in his first pro season, or as we referred to it in our family, The Grocery Go-Getter. The GG-G slugged .382 in 93 AA games, so while it’s cool that he had a .414 On-Base Percentage and stole 14 bases, it’s less cool that he hit five home runs. I think Toronto made a smart trade, sending Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson out for Jose Berrios, who signed a new contract with the Blue jays this winter. They’ve got plenty of field players and needed someone to help them push for the playoffs. Some pundits expressed shock at the team’s willingness to move their top pick from 2020 so quickly into his career, but they’d had a pretty good look at him by then, given the nature of complex work during the pandemic. If you’d asked if they wanted to draft Luis Arraez 5th overall in 2020, they may have said no, so it’s fitting that Martin lands in the same place as the player who comes most easily to mind when thinking about the skill set he’s shown so far. He’s a better athlete and runner than Arraez, but I couldn’t shake the comparison so figured I’d share as I rarely think in those terms.
5. RHP Matt Canterino | 24 | A+ | 2023
This guy brings absolute filth. I ain’t got no crystal ball, but if I had a million dollars I might spend it all on Canterino shares. I’m kidding. I’ve been struggling to squeeze the Sublime reference in here because I can’t unhear it. Canterino will always be I don’t practice Canterino to me. “Santeria” opens well, at least, so it’s an ear worm I can handle better than hitters can handle Canterino’s four-pitch mix. His slider and changeup are easy pluses, and his fastball jumps barrels, particularly up in the zone. His curveball can steal strikes up or get swings down and out against minor leaguers, but it’s not a knockout pitch and could likely be relegated to fourth chair. If he’s getting hit at AA next year, that will be his first time as a pro. He struck out 43 batters in 21 innings at High-A in 2021. 55.1 percent strikeout rate. 5.1 percent walk rate. I want to put him over Austin Martin, but that’s probably overkill.
6. RHP Jordan Balazovic | 23 | AA | 2022
At 6’5” 215 lb with a deceptive delivery and functional control of four pitches, Balazovic can create some ugly at bats. He was also pretty hittable in AA this year, allowing 98 hits in 97 innings across 20 games started. That combined with 38 walks left him with a 1.40 WHIP, but his 0.84 HR/9 helped him keep the ERA looking fine at 3.62, but some of that is just environmental. He pounds the strike zone with decent-not-great stuff and has some room for growth across the board, especially in terms of pitch mix, but he’ll get hit hard when hitters are picking him up. Having four offerings (fastball, curveball, slider, changeup) gives him some topside beyond the outcomes, but he currently looks like he’ll have good days and bad. Who doesn’t though, right?
7. 1B Aaron Sabato | 22 | A+ | 2023
The narrative around Sabato seems to be something like “told you so” in regards to his not being as good as Spencer Torkelson. I don’t really get it. Nobody really said he was, but I realize he was a consolation prize for those first-year-player drafters who wanted some right-right corner power but couldn’t get into the top spot for Tork. When Sabato struggled early in the season, he sort of blipped off the radar. Thing is, Sabato came back strong, earning a promotion to High-A thanks to a .365 OBP and 11 HR in 85 Low-A games. He also posted a .189 batting average. Eep! Good call by the club’s development team to promote him anyway. His A+ slash line was .253/.402/.613 with 8 HR and 32 strikeouts in 22 games. The mixed-bag might be enough to let him open 2022 in Double-A, where he’d be younger than his average competitor and just a hot month or so from boosting his dynasty value.
8. RHP Josh Winder | 25 | AAA | 2022
A redraft sleeper for 2022, Winder checks in at 6’5” 210 lbs and features a 4-pitch mix that, like Balazovic’s, are closer to average than excellent, but like Balazovic, Winder can throw his whole arsenal for strikes, which led to a 0.944 WHIP in 72 innings across 14 starts at two levels. He surrendered four home runs in his four AAA starts and another two home runs in the Futures game, and that’s the main worry with Winder: what’s the tax on his misses in the strike zone?
9. OF Emmanuel Rodriguez | 19 | CPX | 2025
Part of the international class that lost its debut season, Rodriguez made a lot of noise when he finally appeared on the complex this season, smashing ten home runs and swiping nine bases in just 37 games. Sure, he hit just .214, but the rest of that slash line is .346/.524, and Rodriguez demonstrated what makes him enticing as a fantasy prospect despite a 36.6 percent strikeout rate. At 5’10” 165 lbs, he’s an explosive rotator with a pretty swing from the left side. Once he pops, the eye-test aesthetics will back up the hot takes.
10. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson | 21 | AA | 2023
He was an Olympian in 2021, so even though he was traded at the deadline and struggled through a difficult year, statistically speaking, the season wasn’t all doom and gloom for SWR. Plus his 5.91 ERA is a lot uglier than his 3.81 FIP, and his 32.1 percent strikeout rate is promising for a kid facing opponents 4.7 years his senior on average. One issue the 6’3” 210 lb righthander has is he presents a fairly standard look to opponents: fastball, curveball, changeup that all move basically how you’d expect them to. It’s a testament to his talent that he misses so many bats. If he can bring the control up a tick or two, his diminished star will regain some shine.
Thanks for reading!
I’m @theprospectitch on Twitter.