Masyn Winn hit 2 homers and stole two bags in 122 ABs in the majors, while hitting .172. Welp, what are we doing here? Are we now covering stinkers? The Diabolical Voice In My Head, “Hey, if we’re going to cover stinkers, we should cover you, Grey!” That’s not cool. “May not be cool, but at least it doesn’t stink, like you!” Damn, way harsh. So, there’s a case to be made Masyn Winn is a stinker like that Diabolical Voice In My Head said. “It’s you, man, you’re the diabolical voice!” Oh, man, like every horror film, it’s coming from inside the house. Masyn Winn hit .172, but it was with a .196 BABIP. That is hilariously unlucky, yes. He was so unlucky, Pete Alonso threw his first career hit into the stands. How’sever, his Hard Contact% being 24.8% does give me some pause. That would’ve been the 6th worst Hard Contact% in the majors. He had a 13.3% line drive rate. Who are you, Martin Maldonado? Be less awful, is what I would say to someone with those numbers. Still that was in barely a month of at-bats, and I have hope. Though, 13.3% would’ve been the lowest line drive rate last year, which I do find slightly hilarious. So, what can we expect from Masyn Winn for 2024 fantasy baseball?
There’s a big “Before we go on any further, there’s one giant positive here” we need to address before we go any further, he was the the starting shortstop to end the year, has great defense and should be the starting shortstop to start the year. That’s huge when you’re looking at a fantasy baseball rookies. Jackson Holliday might be great when he’s called up. While we’re waiting for that, Masyn Winn will already have 150 at-bats, at least. Where are the positive clips of Winn to show you highlights? Well, there’s not a ton, but here ya go:
? 1ST CAREER HOME RUN ?
Masyn Winn smashed his first big-league dinger!#STLCards pic.twitter.com/oYgKqyaTAA
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) September 7, 2023
I’m sure he can hit less janky home runs, but that surely is not one and don’t call me Shirley. That is one of those homers you see from a middle infielder that has no pop. David Eckstein called, he wants his home run stroke back. Okay, one home run highlight does not make a guy. He does have pop. You could argue that he was jammed there and still hit it out. He did hit 18 homers in only 445 ABs in Triple-A. You are not hitting 10 homers though with a 24.8% Hard Contact rate. You might not hit five with that. He’s super young (21) so his power might still be developing. You don’t luck into 18 homers in Triple-A at 21 years of age. One aspect of his game that is here already:
Masyn Winn is FAST! pic.twitter.com/5qlhRaO4V3
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) March 26, 2023
Masyn Winn could steal 25+ bags. He might steal 35+. He needs to get on to take off for second, obviously. But back to the .172 average from last year, and his wildly low Hard Contact%. Steven Kwan, Nico Hoerner, Jeff McNeil, Benintendi, TJ Friedl and Whit Merrifield were other guys with a weak Hard Contact%. None of those guys struggle for batting averages. They don’t hit a ton of power, but not risks to hit .170. They didn’t have a goofy low line drive rates either, but if you take that with a grain of the “small sample” salt, you get the natural conclusion, Winn should hit at least seventy points higher, if not a hundred. In Triple-A, he hit .318 BABIP and a .288 average. That doesn’t sound completely absurd. He has great plate discipline. Even hitting .172, he had a 19% strikeout rate. That’s from a 21-year-old? That’s nuts. He might struggle to hit below .260 in a full season, even with a low Hard Contact%. Kinda like a Steven Kwan.
Most important takeaways from this post: He has speed, makes contact and burgeoning power. The final big one: The playing time. I don’t know. My guess is he’s the starting shortstop from the jump, but the Cards would need to move on from someone, likely Edman. People will overlook Winn because of a bad month of hitting his rookie year, but you shouldn’t. For 2024 fantasy, I’ll give Masyn Winn projections of 41/8/45/.258/18 in 388 ABs with a chance for more.
