I have a few sleeper posts in the hopper that are “write themselves” sleepers. Luis Garcia Jr. is a write itself sleeper. Okay, ChatGPT, give me your best Luis Garcia Jr. sleeper post: “Luis Garcia Jr. is the Nationals’ 2nd baseman who added Jr. to his name after MLB added a rule that said there could be only seven Luis Garcias. That the best Luis Garcia added Jr. leaves six Luis Garcias battling out to see which Luis Garcia will reign supreme, which is a Luis Garcia with sour cream. Is there anything else I can help you with?” Hmm, maybe I’ll wait until ChatGPT Jr. Last year Luis Garcia Jr. was 83rd overall on the Player Rater and is currently being drafted around 140th overall. That’s about as easy as it gets for sleepers. He went 18/22/.282 in 500 ABs and he’s 24 years old. I honestly don’t know how on earth he’s being drafted as late as he is. I research these sleeper posts and try to come up with strong reasons to draft a guy. I already feel like I’m going to spend most of my time trying to figure out reasons why Luis Garcia Jr. is not getting drafted higher. What am I missing on Luis Garcia Jr. vs. So, what can we expect from Luis Garcia Jr. for 2025 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
So, Davey Martinez is not the dumbest manager there is, but he did audit a class at The Learning Annex called Lefty vs. Lefty Is A Dumb Matchup taught by Kevin Cash, and Luis Garcia Jr. doesn’t face all lefties. He did hit .259 last year in 108 lefty-on-lefty at-bats, so I’m a bit confused why he would ever be platooned out. At 24 years of age, you have to assume, or at least I have to, that Davey will get a little more comfortable with Garcia as he sees more MLB at-bats, but adding Junior to your name does kinda counter the appearance of wisdom from experience. Alas, he saw 500 ABs and saw 108 lefty ABs, that’s fine. Repeat that season of at-bats, and I’m okay on his runs and RBIs.
Luis Garcia Jr. is a .280 hitter. At least. Last year he hit .282 with a .310 BABIP with a 16.3 K% and a 35.7 O-Swing% and 67.9 Z-Swing%, which is fascinating. For clarification purposes, that O-Swing, amount of times a guy swings outside zone, and Z-Swing, amount of times inside zone, are high and low, respectively. Here it is visually:
See that Chase% at 9 and K% at 82? Those are fascinating. Those numbers tell me that he swings at everything and can hit it. This profile might not age well, but there’s a ton of guys who are solid with terrible Chase rates. Luis Arraez, who wins a batting title every year, makes contact with 90.7% of balls outside the zone (and barrels pretty much nothing). Arraez is a .320 xBA guy and Luis Garcia Jr. is “only” .280. In case the quotes around “only” weren’t clear, .280 is still excellent. Oh, and Arraez is a six-homer and six-steal guy. Guess what? Luis Garcia Jr. is not at all.
Three of the months last year, Luis Garcia Jr. hit four homers in a month. For 2nd basemen, Ketel Marte was the best contact guy, easily. 2nd place is a bit muddled, but it sure looks like Luis Garcia Jr.
And Frank Voila:
Those leave out some guys who only saw 300 and less batted ball events, but 2nd base ain’t great and the names don’t get a ton better. Basically, Nolan Gorman and Brandon Lowe sneak in. Luis Garcia Jr. is a no-brainer sleeper and only hoping the market doesn’t correct itself too much before I get to draft him everywhere. For 2025, I’ll give Luis Garcia Jr. projections of 69/20/74/.279/26 in 505 ABs with a chance for more.
