Before watching the video on Lucas Giolito, I looked at his vitals.  This is something I don’t usually do.  Doesn’t really matter to me if a guy is six-foot-one or five-ten.  But, dizzamn, Giolito is a strapping young man, huh?  He’s listed at six-six and 230.  He’s only 21 years old, but I think he’s done growing.  Hopefully, cause his mom tells CBS Sports that his “feet already hang off the bed.”  With a six-six frame, as you can imagine, he throws fast.  (Christall Young is the exception that proves the rule, which never made any sense to me.  If it’s an exception, how does it prove anything?  It proves that there’s exceptions, but that’s about it, right?  I’m gonna move on before my brain hurts in my thought-nodes.)  Giolito hits 97 MPH on his fastball, which is actually up a tick from the previous year.  If he keeps steadily increasing his fastball every year, by the time he’s 40 years old, he’s going to be throwing 117 MPH.  He throws from nearly right over the top, so the ball fires downhill and hitters have about no chance of hitting it.  A 9+ K/9 seems to be a given once he gets settled in the majors.  With speed comes no control, to sound like a drunk Yoda.  Or does it?!  Snap, reversed on that.  No, Giolito has control too.  97 MPH with command?  I’ll say it for you, hummna-hummna.  Oh, and his strikeout pitch is his hard breaking curve.  In 20 years, Al Pacino could be playing the role of a Hall of Fame pitcher in the film, Giolito’s Way.  Assuming Pacino has eighteen-inch stilettos.  Anyway, what can we expect from Lucas Giolito for 2016 fantasy baseball?

It kinda comes down to when the Nats plan on promoting him.  I am not alone when I say Giolito is about as can’t miss as they come.  Likely a future All-Star with Cy Young awards for him to place on a very high shelf that only he can reach.  He will be the best arm to be promoted this year.  I’m working a bit without a safety net on when will he be promoted.  Comes down to what the Nats do at the Winter Meetings, and how committed they are to Tanner Roark as a starter.  I’d say they should be committed if Roark isn’t in the rotation to start the year, but rarely do five-man rotations make it the whole way without at least one injury to someone.  Double that sentiment when considering Dusty Baker is the new Nats manager.  Gio Gonzalez might be asked to throw 140 pitches on any given day, or a given day right after he just threw 120 pitches.  That’s Dusty doing Dusty.  Everywhere I look it has Giolito arriving by mid-2016.  I’ll say the same since going out on a limb by one’s self gets lonely.  For 2016, I’ll give him the line of 4-6/3.62/1.21/82 in 80 IP.  That could go anywhere from a 2.75 ERA in 140 IP to 1.50 ERA in 25 IP, so there’s a huge variance here to what will happen and what might happen (as with most rookies).  If he even sniffs the rotation in the spring, I’ll be adding him immediately in all leagues.  He could be special, and TMZ spotted Pacino shopping for eighteen-inch stilettos, so that could be a good sign.

  1. Running Frog says:
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    Dropping Star Wars references on a player named Lucas G? Subtle… very subtle…

    In a 30-team 5×5 league using SVHD instead of SV and starting 1 at each fielding position plus a DH and starting 5 SP and 4 RP… where would you see the position scarcity or category scarcity sweet spots?

    I feel like C and MI are both more important and OF less so compared to a typical 10-teamer. Running 30 C instead of 10 but only running 90 OF instead of 50. In 10-teamers you can go CAGNOF because the 4th best catcher and the 14th best really aren’t that different, but what about when 30 are used? The 90th best OF guys are still guys like Alex Gordon and Joc Pederson and Jorge Soler, but the 30th best C last year was Hank Conger… MI you’re starting 60 instead of 30 which puts you into “Jedd Gyorko Is A Must Own” town.

    For categories I feel like SB has serious scarcity issues. There will be teams where 19 is enough to be their leading SB guy. Maybe Runs Scored also?

    Any thoughts, Grey? Scratch that. Any thoughts related to my question?

    Til then may all your trains be Money Trains…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Running Frog: Ha… SS, 2B, C are scarce positions, SBs were very low last year… May all of your money trains be Armenian money trains

  2. Bad News Bums says:
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    So just a comment not really on the pitcher featured (who has been owned for years in my lig)…

    I love this site between prospect mike and your nonsensical yet oddly informative articles I’ve been able to dominate many a lig….

    also I realize you may be addressing this soon but Josh Bell? Is he going to be more a james lonely or more a joey votto I could easily see him going either way…thoughts? comments? concerns?

    Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Bad News Bums: Thanks! I’ll go over Josh Bell at some point soon

    • Mike Hunt's Honorable Discharge says:
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      @Bad News Bums: “lig” short for league eh, why not “leg”, if you’re doing it for the phonetics i like it!

      • Bad News Bums says:
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        @Mike Hunt’s Honorable Discharge: ya it just sounds like it also its a kinda tribute to the guy who got me into fantasy baseball

  3. Ante GALIC says:
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    Grey!

    Have known about Giolito being an avid follower on razzball. In fact, I sing your intro to the podcast to sleep as kind of a hypnotic induction. Starts off quietly, almost humming and then moves into full-blown mode by the end….’RAZZ-BALL, RAZZ-BALL, RAZZ-BALL!!!

    That said, you managed to pique even more interest in me on Giolito. Well done! I think I’ll take him in the later rounds and hope for the best in the second half?

    Cheers,
    Ante

  4. JPP Fingerbang says:
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    I am trying to decide between Giolito and Andrew Miller for the last keeper spot on a team. I traded away my 1st rd pick in the draft (which would be equivalent to around the 135th pick in a re-draft league), so I’m trying to decide between Miller’s 100K from the RP slot vs. Giolito’s career (there’s no limit to how long you can keep a player). If I don’t keep Miller, there will only be mediocre closers left by the time I draft my #1 closer in round 2, and I definitely have a better shot at winning in 2016 with Miller than without him. But it’s hard to pass up adding Giolito to Matt Harvey, Gerrit Cole & King Felix.

    • JPP Fingerbang says:
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      Looking at Posey, A-Gon, Correa, Bryant, Dickerson, Pollock, Braun, Harvey, Cole, King Felix and then Giolito or Miller as my final keeper.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @JPP Fingerbang: Wow, nice keepers… Since your keepers are already stacked, I think I’d roll the dice with Giolito, but how many teams in your league matters

      • JPP Fingerbang says:
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        12 teams. Last year’s winner (I finished 3rd) has a scary offense, but their only pitching keepers will be Price, Keuchel & Kimbrel.

        My starting pitching is really good, but another top top 5 team has Kershaw, Sale, Bumgarner, Syndergaard, Wade Davis, and probably also keep Ken Giles.

        Another team has Arrieta, Scherzer, Kluber & Archer, and they finishsed about 100K in front of the next team’s pitching. Luckily, their offense isn’t so good.

        I think I might have the best balance of offense/starting pitching, at least among keepers.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          In 12 teams, I’d keep Miller

          • JPP Fingerbang says:
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            What do you think about this maybe try to get a big haul for Felixm before his arm falls off from the 123,000 IP he’s pitched over his career?

            I wish he were coming off a better year, but he’s still a pretty flashy brand name…

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I’d trade F-Her if I could, I think the best is behind him

  5. CMUTimmah says:
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    I’m going to hold off and pick him up when he’s in his thirties throwing that 110-117 MPH cheese. haha

    Do we see a star out of the gate, or do we get the Rodon waiting game? Time shall tell. I’m thinking drafting him this year is premature if you’re thinking of making him a keeper for next year. If you have a minor leaguer slot, I think you’ll be happy to secure him this year and pull him up to the major leaguer fantasy roster in 2017.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @CMUTimmah: Ha, yeah, this year will likely be premature, but he could be aces

  6. nick the dick says:
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    I meant that to razz Foh for loving Ron Swanson but not watching Fargo, which he is in…Last nights was the tits though

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @nick the dick: At some point, JFoH will watch Fargo and be like, “Wow,” and we’ll be like, “Yeah, we told you months ago.”

      • nick the dick says:
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        @Grey: We will be on to newer and bigger things when he comes around saying how much he likes Roger on Mad Men

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ha! I’m not sure how you can watch it, but if you have a way, I highly recommend The Shield

        • J-FOH says:
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          @nick the dick: which goes to prove you are the snobby cool kids…how is my boy Jeffrey Donovan doing on the show

          • nick the dick says:
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            @J-FOH: Hey, what are you doing at our lunch table?!….Everyone on the show is good. Your boy Ron Swanson has a small part too, he’s good

          • Mike Hunt's Honorable Discharge says:
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            @J-FOH: you’d like mike weston’s character on here.

    • Fred Garvin MP says:
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      @nick the dick: I’ve been digging the Mike Milligan avi since I first saw it NTD. Propers.
      For me, the best episode of the current season thus far. Who knew the subterranean labyrinth of old periodicals at the Blumquist ranch would prove to be so useful?

      • nick the dick says:
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        @Fred Garvin MP: Ha yeah the last two episodes have really ramped it up, just phenomonal. You knew Peggy’s hoarding would become useful sometime!…Grey hasn’t watched this week yet so keep in hush hush.

  7. Scott Kimmel says:
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    Grey I am interested in three guys to sign as free agents. We are adding a minor league system to my league. Should I sign these players with the following picks that I would have to give up or hope they fall to me in the minor league draft??? Also if I do sign them, I would have to keep them on my roster all year long

    Julio Urias (LHP) – 1st round/ 2nd overall
    Michael Conforto – 1st round/7th overall
    Tyler Glasnow -(RHP) – 3rd round/23rd

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Conforto is solid there

      • Scott Kimmel says:
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        What about the other two

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Seem like high price for them

          • Scott Kimmel says:
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            so if someone bids 1st rd pick, 6th overall let them grab him?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              This is a ten team league, right?

              • Scott Kimmel says:
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                No 8 team league

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Then don’t grab those pitchers

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    @Grey: In an 8 team dynasty I want Urias!

    • JPP Fingerbang says:
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      Glasnow seems like decent value there, to me. I think he’ll be really good. Great team, just about MLB-ready, there should be a spot for him. He’s a much better value than Urias, certainly. I think you could be make a case that Glasnow is the next best “can’t miss” guy after Giolito.

  8. J-FOH says:
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    I don’t know if I’m the only one, but damn, I’m craving some gelato

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Huh?

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Grey: giolito gelato sounds similar

        • nick the dick says:
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          @J-FOH: same way cilantro sounds like cutslityou

            • nick the dick says:
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              @J-FOH: You’re terrible like corriander and i’m bored of your banter

              • J-FOH says:
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                @nick the dick: you slander my banter with your fear of a herbacious enhancer?

                • nick the dick says:
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                  @J-FOH: you use stupid male penis enhancers while my dick is always on like Comet, Cupid and Prancer, your shit is tiny like an Elton John dancer, mine’s the boss like Tony Danza, don’t spit a stanza, cuz i’ll answer, with a massacre like up in France bruh

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    @nick the dick: too soon on the France thing….too soon

                    • nick the dick says:
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                      @J-FOH: I knew you would say that

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    @nick the dick: always on like Cupid, Comet, Prancer? They come once a year….like you because your lady refuses to touch your little lance….er?

                    • nick the dick says:
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                      @J-FOH: On Comet, on Cupid, on Prancer, like the way it’s said by my homeboy Santa, Saint Nick you prick, your fuckin wit, is like a slow burn wick, you don’t know? Learn quick, my wife yearns for my dick, the username is no bull-shit

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      did you just call saint Nick a prick? Not cool man. I thought you were a dick in the personality not the pants, at least that’s what Scott Kimmel called you when you poked at him. She don’t love the dick, she just used you to make the babies

                    • nick the dick says:
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                      @J-FOH: what was that, some spoken word? You joking, you turd?! The big mean bear JFoh, i’m poking ya fur, I hoping that you’re floatin in the ocean while i’m strokin her fallopian, you focusin, on cock-roachin again, encroaching on my space, you at home opening lotion again, i’m just loc-ing my friend

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      @J-FOH: lotion? that’s for ladies, I have a beard, lets be clear, there is only raw friction, that aint fiction. what is coch-roachin? Is that like catfishin’ sounds like you be dissin’ and trippin’ must be some kind of envy are you still mad they never put you on glee?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ah yeah

  9. Scott Kimmel says:
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    Grey

    Do you have a list of minor league prospects I should look to draft in my minor league draft?

  10. GhostTownSteve says:
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    Who doesn’t love a cute kid story? My boy was playing with his Lego set and there was a little plastic guy and I hear him calling the guy Lagares. So I say, “Hey Ben…what’s that little guy’s name?” He says, “Lagares.” And I say, “what does Lagares do?” And he says, “Lagares plays center field.”

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Are you sure he wasn’t saying Legos in Spanish?

    • Ante GALIC says:
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      @GhostTownSteve: Steve-0000!!! That is an awesome story! My 11-year old still loves his legos, he’s more Euro-centric so goes cuckoo for all soccer teams players, bench included. If he knew baseball as well as he knew soccer, he’d be just as into Lagares as your son!!

      Cheers,
      Ante

  11. Scott Kimmel says:
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    Grey and J-Foh. Someone put a bid in on Julio Urias with a third round pick (#22 overall). The only draft pick I have left for free agency is my #2 overall. Is Urias worth signing him with that pick or let him go and sign with the guy for a third round pick? Any free agent rookies have to stay on your active roster all season long. What should I do?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Sure

      • Scott Kimmel says:
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        Sure to what grey

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Urias is worth signing, I guess…You’re giving me no options

          • Scott Kimmel says:
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            Well I was going to try and draft him in the minor league draft at 2 but somebody put a bid on him as a free agent. What other options do you need to know? Will be happy to tell you. You mean what other free agent pitchers are available?

          • Scott Kimmel says:
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            This is the list of free agent SP that teams dropped

            Bailey
            Haren
            Hughes
            Lewis
            Lynn
            McCarthy
            Newcomb
            Owens
            Peavy
            Porcello
            Ramirez
            Roark
            Rodriguez
            Santiago

            Who is available on yahoo waiver wire:

            Eovaldi
            Buehrle
            Estrada
            Leake
            Hill

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I’d take Porcello

            • J-FOH says:
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              @Scott Kimmel: Is that Eduardo Rodrigues because if it is I want him in a dynasty

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Is it?

                • Scott Kimmel says:
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                  Yes it is him

                • J-FOH says:
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                  @Grey: I think it is

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
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                    Hmm… How do we know?

                    • Scott Kimmel says:
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                      The Boston pitcher?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Porcello is on the Red Sox, yeah

                    • Scott Kimmel says:
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                      I think j foh is talking about the red sawks pitcher rodriguez

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Ah, gotcha

  12. J-FOH says:
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    I cant stop thinking about ramen. Last night all I wanted for dinner is ramen. This is killing me

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      You won’t be disappointed either

  13. J-FOH says:
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    I know you will call me a homer but the NL Cy Young should of been a lot closer than it was

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      A homer to who? Don’t you like the Mets?

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Grey: Jeebus you, you know Im a casual Mets and Dodgers fan with a weird thing for Houston

      • FrankGrimes says:
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        @Grey:
        Hahaha!

  14. Scott Kimmel says:
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    Grey and J-FOH

    Should I use the number 2 overall and sign Julio Urias or let him sign with the guy who offered a third round (#22 overall)? If I do sign him he has to stay on my active roster all year long. Is he even worth the second overall pick?

  15. Reese says:
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    For my last keeper slot conforto or giolito? 12 team mixed

Comments are closed.