I get jazz handsy when I’m writing overrated posts. It’s Razzball, after all. Razz is in the name, so it’s only natural I want to mock players. That’s what this whole shebang is built on, mocking. By the by, in retrospect, was Ricky Martin’s hit song, She Bangs, really written to be Shebang, as in the whole shebang, and the record label changed it to make it sound more hetero? “Um, Ricky, I like that song, it’s catchy, but maybe you could pause after ‘she.'” Or maybe Martin was commenting on a hairstyle of a female acquaintance who had bangs. This was a 20-year riff in the making, huh? Any hoo! I enjoy mocking players; it’s fun! With that said (time for Grey to turn this ship around), I’m getting no pleasure from mocking Joey Gallo. I like guys who hit 700-foot moonshots! Who doesn’t? Sometimes I’ll take a bottle of peach schnapps outside at night just so I can do my own moonshots. Sometimes I’ll take my Derringer out there and just shoot at the moon. I love that shizz! The more moonshottie the better! Ricky Martin should do a song, Moons Hottie, putting in a hetero space between words! I’d download that shizz and hit the avenue with the top down, pumping up the jams! I love it! How’sever…Well…So, what can we expect from Joey Gallo for 2020 fantasy baseball and what makes him overrated?
First, let’s get others, namely Steamer, out of the way first. Gallo is ranked 118th overall on our 12-team ESPN rankings; his projections are 82/41/101/.223/7 in 510 ABs. This assumes health. After he missed 80 games last year with wrist surgery, which is absolutely brutal on hitters. I wouldn’t assume 100% health, but, for the purposes of this exercise, I’m going to assume health, because none of us are gods, and who knows. I once thought Giancarlo was a god and now we’re married (in my mind) and he hasn’t said, “I love you,” in months. Like I’m a piece of trash! Maybe Alex Bregman should bang on me! Huh?! Would you like that?! So, Gallo is healthy, but .223 is a huge dip in average in those projections. Here’s where I dug in and discussed this with Rudy. The Rangers are moving to a new park this year, a dome. For the last three years, Arlington was a top five park for walks. Now, you might think, as I did, that walks were a hitters’ thing. Walks are, aren’t they? That’s where you’d be wrong. Arlington was muggier than the 1 Line by 191st Street. Pitchers are controlling walks, not hitters. Think about the Rangers lineup, does that strike as particularly good for walks? In the extreme heat, pitchers wear down faster and get wild. A dome will cause pitchers to be better, in general. (This is good news for my high ranking of Lance Lynn too.) A dome will at worst be neutral. If pitchers are better, walks will come down, strikeouts go up, and Gallo’s gonna get dunked on. For unstints, look at Arizona pre- and post-humidor. It was a great park for walks — pitchers were afraid (top 10 for walks), then it became terrible for walks (22nd last year) — even with Robbie Ray! Look at walks in Tampa (23rd in league) last year. I just randomly looked at 2009 walk rates in parks, and Arlington is 6th and Tropicana is 23rd. I honestly don’t even remember who was on those teams. It’s irrelevant, because it includes visitor data too, so it’s not like who was pitching for the Rays or Rangers matters there. Gallo’s last year saw a 17.5% walk rate, but he’s being projected for a 14.6% walk rate this year. If that holds, he might hit .205 with his 38.4% strikeout rate (his last year’s mark). I know this all sucks, because we’re all a bunch of Moons Hotties, but Gallo is currently being drafted too high and his current ESPN ranking of 45th overall is hideously off.