This Joe Musgrove sleeper is admittedly a bit of a stretch where some things just have to go right. Or rather, some things that have gone right in the past need to go right again in succession and just go ahead and name Shiv, you know you want to, Logan Roy. That’s not a spoiler, because after a show ends, my brain wipes clean of everything that happened during a season like a specialized Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind if that’s what it was and I haven’t forgot that, as well. Just a cursory view of Joe Musgrove and you’ll see a less than impressive starter — 11-12/4.44/1.22/157 in 170 1/3 IP, and now that I spell it out like that, why again was I interested in Joe Musgrove? Now I’m having some Musgrovings about his ability to do the job. My first inclination was to write a Mitch Keller sleeper (and maybe I still will), but we’re 150 words in and I’ll be damned if I’m backtracking now. The Pirates got rid of Ray Searage and his special brand of coaching that managed to make every starter terrible. Don’t worry about Searage; he quickly was hired by the SETI Institute. He will teach a whole new group of people on the best way to elicit contact. So, what can we expect from Joe Musgrove for 2020 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Immediately felt like I was in the right direction when I thought about how Joe Musgrove was a popular sleeper candidate going into last year. Not by me, but by others. That means he had something that was of interest to people at some point. The real thing that stuck out to me as Musgrove struck out as a strikeout pitcher last year (8.3 K/9) was maybe he didn’t strike out as a strikeout pitcher. *Looks up for balloons to fall from ceiling for the most times ‘strikeout’ was used in one sentence* Damn, guess I struck out too. Musgrove’s pitch chart is crazy like Krazy Bone — RIP, Uncle Jo-Jo — because he throws so many pitches. The problem is he throws too many pitches. He has six pitches:  four-seamer (37.5%), slider (22.2%), sinker (11.9%), change (10.5%), curve (9.5%) and cutter (8.4%). Whew, I got carpal tunnel just typing that. So, the problem derives from his inability to not throw some of these junkie pitches. Musgrove needs to abandon a few of these. His slider? 14th best in the majors. His four-seamer? Goofy bad. How’sever, it wasn’t in September. In September, 14.4 whiff percentage on the four-seamer vs. 5.5 just the month before. Of course, it was only 16 IP, so can’t say he fixed everything. If he did fix his four-seamer, then great. If not, he needs to drop the percentage of times he throws that whack pitch. Of course, if it was just me saying this, it wouldn’t mean shizz. But Musgrove himself threw less four-seamers in August too. And, in the 2nd half, his K/9 was up to 9.4 (70 2/3 IP) from 7.5 in the 1st half (99 2/3 IP). To recap just in case Musgrove is reading this, he needs to either have an effective four-seamer or throw it a lot less and just use it to setup the slider. His command (2.1 BB/9) last year and the year before (1.8) shows he just needs to up his strikeout rate just a tad to be extremely effective. An outside chance for 9.4 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 is well worth the flyer on a sleeper for his current ADP, which is nearly free in some leagues. For 2020, I’ll give Joe Musgrove projections of 10-12/3.87/1.19/168 in 177 IP with a chance for more.

 
  1. Helen Keller says:
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    I need a Mitch Keller Sleeper Report, long form. Soon. I may even block ads for it.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Hmm…. maybe you block ads anyway!

  2. jeffjam says:
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    I wont let you start the rankings without Mitch Keller sleeper post. Act accordingly.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Hmm… you guys are killing me with the Keller love! Y’all bunch of Miracle Workers!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Anne Sullivans?

      • The Itch

        The Itch says:
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        Loved it

        • The Itch

          The Itch says:
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          5 Braille stars!

  3. Terrence Mann says:
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    SETI cracked me the F up. Good start to the new year, January Grey.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      January Grey rocks the house!

  4. Dave D says:
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    Joe-Must-Grow

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Joe’s ready to grow

  5. Malicious Phenoms says:
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    Hey just got what you meant in other post.

    I already added Goodrum to my bench, but I would cut him for Happ, who could have a bounce back year in The Bronx, he at least should be good for wins and K’s..Just a thought. I have this one xtra spot I am playing around with.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d try Goodrum over Happ

      • Malicious Phenoms says:
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        ok cool, thanks

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

      • Malicious Phenoms says:
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        Pineda and Rengifo were just dropped, you like either over Goodrum?

        10 team 6 x 6 roto dynasty, OBP and QS are xtra cats, we roster 60 players each..

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Pineda seems interesting if a keeper

          • Malicious Phenoms says:
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            Ok Ill put a claim.in for him. Thanks again January Grey! Your the best!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Ha, No problem

          • Malicious Phenoms says:
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            One last one. Tyler Beede..You like him going forward, not just for 2020.

            Thanks

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Meh, he’s okay as a last round flyer

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I’m not sure Tyler Beede likes Tyler Beede

              • Malicious Phenoms says:
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                Good one!

  6. Seddon Death says:
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    Which side
    Clevinger, bogaerts
    Harper, s marte

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
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      Harper side for me but it’s very fair and I could be swayed the other way depending on league format.

      • Seddon Death says:
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        With position eligibility changes I have 3 shortstop only players baez,mondesi and bogaerts

        5×5 basic CBS format

        Outfield sucks
        Solar, k. Davis, haniger

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I’d go Harper

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Harper

  7. Allen Markstrom says:
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    Rankings this Monday?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Following

  8. Chris Myers says:
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    Baez or JD Standard scoring + OBP

    Also: Fav Steve Martin sketch on SNL

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Hmm…JD

      two…WILD…and CRAZY…GUYS!

  9. bigbear says:
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    When I saw you were did a Joe Musgrove sleeper I yawned. But well played Mr. Grey. Well played. I’ll keep an eye on him for later rounds.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ha, thanks!

  10. Ronald says:
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    What is your outlook for Jon Gray in 2020? Would you go Joe Musgrove over Jon Gray?

    • Ronald says:
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      Also, what is a reasonable Griffin Canning outlook?

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        I’ll go over Canning too

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’ll go over everyone in my rankings

  11. Dong Show says:
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    I have a straight up offer of Ketel for Gleyber in my dynasty. Who do you like more?

    I feel like Gleyber is better but Ketel is the safer bat?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Marte

      • Dong Show says:
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        Thanks Grey! I pulled the trigger. I wasn’t sure if you EoS 2b ranks meant anything. It’s partially why I said yes. Agreed he’s likely a safer bat, but I love the lineup around Torres

        • Dong Show says:
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          I got Ketel by the way if that wasn’t clear lol

          Looking forward to the 2020 rankings!

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Yup! Me too!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, I hear ya

  12. toolshed says:
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    Now that luis robert signed an extension amd wont be jerked around with service time bs, what does that do for his draft day price. How soon would you take him in a 10 team league? Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      My rankings come out soon… I think prolly around Eloy’s price last year so 70ish maybe

  13. Mike says:
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    I had him last year. He had a roller coaster season. Terrific April on velocity down 2 mph, gave it all back in May, only to go “meh” the rest of the way.

    Any idea why he throws 92 in April/May but 95/96 in Sept (same thing happened in ’17)?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Not sure, but it could be a a pitch mix thing

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Maybe he needs to start spring training in January so he thinks May is September

    • Beat the Bots says:
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      It might be that his arm takes a while to get warmed up. Kluber at his peak always had rough Aprils and got better during the season

  14. Malicious Phenoms says:
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    Rockies sign Chris Owings..What a messed up org. They have more than enough young specs to give chances to on the dirt..

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      They’re making sure Hampson only gets 250 ABs

  15. NYC says:
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    Sleeper post on Tyler Beede? Seems like a guy who could be sneaky good next year.

    • goodfold2 says:
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      was at worst a decent NL only streamer last year.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Tyler Beede could be a solid home stream… Maybe more, but not willing to go there yet

  16. goodfold2 says:
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    only worry about this if you see it in the next 4ish hours, after that i’m just going with somebody i’m about to either go SP prospect or hitter with the 1.22 in this 30 team 40 max prospects stashed spot; mine already:
    C: okey (CIN)
    CI (we start 2 CI, 2 MI, 3 OF, 1 C, 1 util for hitters): vientos, w.craig, e.rios (LAD), d.ellis (ARI), denton (STL), lavalley (CIN), padlo (TB), kubitza (ATL)
    MI: paredes, w.perez (DET), a.tejada (TEX), k.smith (TOR), a.rondon (TB)
    OF: adell, kirilloff, trammell, victor to the 2nd mesa, t.ornelas, p.gonzalez (TEX), v.garcia (STL), g.whitley (TB), c.brannen (BOS), v.reyes (DET, probably promote him soon as he is getting steals and likely starts), cozens, dj davis (TOR), tocci (ex PHI/TEX)
    SP: w.crowe, c.rodriguez (LAA), c.hernandez (KC), m.sauer (NYY), kilome, diplan (BAL, ex MIL), a.smith (SD, probably bullpen as i can’t even find him in lists anymore)
    RP: j.guzman (probably bullpen), staumont

    might have a deal moving like staumont + 2.22 + another prospect possibly (victor to the 2nd mesa, but man since i used a late 1st rounder last year on him i’d be bailing fast) for barreto

    C: okey (CIN)
    CI (we start 2 CI, 2 MI, 3 OF, 1 C, 1 util for hitters): vientos, w.craig, e.rios (LAD), d.ellis (ARI), denton (STL), lavalley (CIN), padlo (TB), kubitza (ATL)
    MI: paredes, w.perez (DET), a.tejada (TEX), k.smith (TOR), a.rondon (TB)
    OF: adell, kirilloff, trammell, victor to the 2nd mesa, t.ornelas, p.gonzalez (TEX), v.garcia (STL), g.whitley (TB), c.brannen (BOS), v.reyes (DET, probably promote him soon as he is getting steals and likely starts), cozens, dj davis (TOR), tocci (ex PHI/TEX)
    SP: w.crowe, c.rodriguez (LAA), c.hernandez (KC), m.sauer (NYY), kilome, diplan (BAL, ex MIL), a.smith (SD, probably bullpen as i can’t even find him in lists anymore)
    RP: j.guzman (probably bullpen), staumont

    might have a deal moving like staumont + 2.22 + another prospect possibly (victor to the 2nd mesa, but man since i used a late 1st rounder last year on him i’d be bailing fast) for barreto

    draft options:
    pena (but i’m super strong relatively in OF vs other spots)/matos/jimenez (the latter 2 of these seem ranked a good bit later, esp matos)
    bracho (yep you guessed that right)/g.jones/cavaco
    ed cab (MIA SP, best of your SP and other lists left)

    • goodfold2 says:
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      itch guessed bracho as who i might’ve gotten already, not you

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Sorry, just seeing it

      • goodfold2 says:
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        i went bracho, ed cab (pretty much consensus highest SP left) and these highish 1st year SP went right after: m.allan, z.thompson, kirby. i now actually have offers of moving my 2.22 + one of staumont (guy who had helium about 3 years ago at KC, but never got any control and is now pretty much wild thing from major league), victor to the 2nd mesa (who showed nothing last year and now all the prospectors are projecting him for like a 4th OF type role with no power (and even his hit tool last year sucked)), or j.guzman (MIA SP biggest piece of the stanton trade, ralph had liked him a year or 2 ago, but he’s not done well and now seems to be only a RP long term).

        which of these would you move first here for barreto (.4 league min contract till end of 2023). either way i’m going to see who’s still around at pick 2.22.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Any of them? Staumont, Mesa, that order

  17. Rich says:
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    Lookin 4 advice…which 5 to keep: Y. Alvarez, Bichette, Merrifield, Hoskins, Hiura, Lindor, Snell, Scherzer, Soroka & Strass? Crazy Roto 8X8. Tanks, Tanksalot

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Might be helpful to know what the 8 cats are…. Without knowing…Lindor, Snell, Scherzer, Hiura, Yordan

  18. Silent Heat says:
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    SETI …hahahaahhahahaha

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Hehe

  19. dontbichetteme says:
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    Happy New Year Grey,
    Was looking for a little help in choosing my 10 keepers in my 12 team H2H 5×5(standard yahoo scoring)keeper league. The first 7 are no brainers to me. But the last 3 are a little tricky. I have built up a pretty stacked squad over the years.
    Locks-ACUNA, TROUT, BREGMAN, SOTO, ARENADO, BIEBER, SNELL
    That leaves 3 left to pick out of
    O.ALBIES
    K.TUCKER
    C.SEAGER
    P.CORBIN
    J.GALLO
    M.KEPLER
    L.HENDRICKS
    Curious to hear what you think?

    • dontbichetteme says:
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      forgot C.Kluber

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Happy New Year!

      Albies, Corbin

      Only question is Gallo or Kluber

      • dontbichetteme says:
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        Yeah I was leaning those 2 for sure. It is the last one I am really struggling with. Ive kept C.Seager since he came into the league and really think he is going to break out one of these years. Such a sweet swing. I think he has a .300 25 95 coming in the near future. Thats pretty valuable production from a young SS.

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