No one is drafting Joc Pederson.  I got an email from the barber that used to trim Fidel Castro’s beard before emigrating from Cuba and he said, “No tengo Joc Pederson en fantasy beisbol.”  Granted, he also asked for me to wire him $1000000000 to help pay for a dead aunt I hadn’t heard of previously, so the legitimacy of the email could be debated, but Pederson as non-entity is legit.  This is likely due to his known quality, as in ‘it is known he is not quality.’  If I had to guess why, I’d say it’s because people assume what they’re going to get from him — low average, some pop, prolly platoon.  Okay, that’s enough to be unenthused, I can understand that.  I think that’s selling him short like Christian Bale moving tranches as he waits for a bubble to burst.  Just to be clear, you’ve moved your enthusiasm away from a 24-year-old who had 25 HRs and 6 SBs last year and has hit that many homers for two straight seasons and has 30+ steals in two separate minor league seasons.  Yeah, no hitter has ever been better in his third full major league season.  That was sarcasm.  Lots of data has shown the third-year breakout season doesn’t exist, but there was some data there to begin with to even investigate it.  In other words, that third-year breakout theory isn’t a bastard child because there’s data there.  So, what can we expect from Joc Pederson for 2017 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
Last year, Pederson cut his strikeouts from 29.1% to 27.3%.  It’s something.  Sure, he didn’t go from Chris Davis to Pie Traynor.  By the by, Pie had a sister, Hairpie.  Weird family.  So, Pederson got better, even if smally (hey, if bigly can be a word, smally can too).  To say he got a little better isn’t the whole picture.  He went from 1.3 Fastball runs Above Average to 14.5.  Um, come home to papa!  That’s about the same as Carlos Gonzalez, Correa and Kemp.  His Hard Contact rate was 38.7%, which is 28th in the majors with Votto, V-Mart and Kyle Seager around him.  Then his ability to drive the ball up the middle was 30th in the majors around Nelson Cruz and Starling Marte.  (Some good names in all of these lists, huh?  Yeah, well, I’m cherrypicking so much I should be working on a cherry orchard.)  He hits a decent amount of fly balls and not many ground balls.  His line drives are a bit the dog’s breakfast, but he feels like he’s due for a much better BABIP than his career .277 mark.  If he can get his strikeout percentage down to 22%, he could hit .270+, and that’s his one drawback, right?  I mean, the power is there.  A 24-year-old going into his third season after hitting 25 homers and 26 homers in his first two seasons is begging for a 35+ homer season.  35 HRs and .245 isn’t that exciting, but there’s speed here too.  Maybe it’s not 30+ steal speed as it was in the minors, but if the brakes come off, he easily takes 15 bases.  His one big Pitfall Harry that I can’t get around, he can’t hit lefties.  Big whoop!  You grab a bat off waivers on the days Pederson’s sitting vs. a tough lefty.  Guys and five girl readers, I’m so jazzed I could be A Tribe Called Quest beat.  For 2017, I’m going to give Joc Pederson the projections of 72/31/79/.252/10 in 440 ABs which is an easy number three outfielder for the price of a fifth.
Ya know Grey, I got that same email, except mine was for a great aunt. Been a rough Christmas season for the aunts. Oh well, back to real lifel, is Joc a top 60 keeper in OBP format?
Ha…top 60 overall? Feels a bit rich
Like a dead aunt
Grey!
Great write-up. Hope all went well for the extended weekend.
a. I was working night and day – Christmas Eve, Christmas day and Boxing Day. So, yeah I had a great weekend. Basically, we needed to comment on our partners’ project proposals, reduce their budgets by 50% and then send our comments plus the reasons why for the reduction by today – no big deal. Nothing better than eggnog and a line-by-line budget analysis of a project plus the narrative which is discombobulated.
b. Have to repeat that you should be a real estate agent. At the very least a Professor of logic at UC Berkeley. So, yeah I’m gonna love Joc. Hopefully as you say the training wheels come off and he comes into his own as a 24-year old, so yeah a big chance to grow this season for Joc.
Cheers,
Ante
A. That sounds awesome! Aside from the egg nog, yuck B. Nice!
Grey, so you gave the stats for a number 3 outfielder. Assuming the number 1 and 2 outfielders need to be 4 and 5 category fillers what are your thoughts on the number 4 and 5 outfielder? In general what is your line of thinking when redrafting a 5 outfielder roster?
What are some of the documentaries coming up that look interesting?
Someone I trust told me to watch Finders Keepers on Netflix, though I haven’t yet… you watch Black Mirror?
@Grey:
Black Mirror is great – watch from the beginning of Season 1 (available on Netflix I think). All episodes are solid, and are separate and distinct (different stores, characters, etc) but things start off really well…Season 3 is exclusively Netflix (no longer BBC) and remains outstanding.
Yeah, Black Mirror’s the bomb, was going to suggest it
Grey!!
Missed you yesterday! Was super swamped.
a. Too funny on the viagra joke! That is the funniest naturally-told believable joke on viagra I’ve ever heard.
b. Going into a meeting as we speak.
Cheers,
Ante
Good luck!
Why so low his ABs? Do you think he takes a hit with an injury or does the silly OF logjam in LA not get resolved by the end of spring? Is it really platooning him that often against lefties? The guy is 24; he still has a chance to improve if he gets the opportunity. Then again, I don’t see him live that often.
Joc seems to be a solid defensive CF, with only 6 fielding errors in his two MLB seasons. No reason not to put him out there, I think.
I think he does sit vs tougher pitchers and get pulled early in certain situations… he should play enough though where it’s not a worry… he walks a decent amount which also lowers ABs and hits low in order
Buxton or Joc over the next 3 years?
Buxton
Have you ever seen Black Mass? I watched it on HBO this weekend. It was boring beyond belief.
Was that the ‘Depp puts on crazy disguise movie?’ Yeah, I saw it… Wasn’t good… Departed dusted the floor with that story already
@Grey: Yeah, it as terrible. The Departed wasn’t really that story. It was Internal Affairs rebooted as the Bulger story. If they wanted to they could have at least made Black Mass interesting. Instead it was boring.
Have you ever seen Layer Cake with Daniel Craig?
Nah, haven’t seen Layer Cake, was it good? Ex Machina was solid from last year, and Sicario and Spotlight… This year has been better for movies
@Grey: I didn’t hate black mass. I thought Depp was really good in it. Of course I thought the departed was way over rated
I know you, you liked Transylvania 6500 and didn’t like The Godfather, loved Ernest Scared Stupid, but never saw Citizen Kane…
@Grey: Bahahaha
@Grey: wow, you know a lot about bad movies….putting the Godfather and Citizen Kane in the same breath as the Departed is liking saying that the Yankees contributions to baseball are the same as the Padres because they both play baseball.
Yeah they’re not in the same league, never said they were
@Grey: your example says otherwise
My example never said anything like that, I can’t even
sorry, the chain you created did
Fupcha
@Grey: It’s old probably 05′. It’s classic, I love gangster movies, and Layer Cake is one of the best. It’s English, but is excellent. Find it and watch it. Matthew Vaughn directed it.
Cougs said she liked it, saw it at Sundance… I think she might’ve just been location-dropping…It’s what I deal with….
@Grey: Hahaha! My wife’s location-drops are the supermarket or Target.
My wife location drops to remind me all the cool places she used to go before me
@Ralph Lifshitz: I liked Layer Cake, good flick
Your not contrarian to be contrarian viewpoint is see thru
@Grey: no it really was a solid movie, now the Departed on the other hand was not great…it was barely good
The departed was a solid movie, not greatest, not just passable
@Grey: you’ll have to excuse me while I go watch Pee Wee’s Big Adventure
That’s a solid movie, you gonna say you don’t like it now?
@Grey: oh hells no, that movie was great. Wasnt that the introduction of Tim Burton?
Maybe LeVar Burton, no Tim Burton that I remember
@Grey: I just looked it up and Pee Wee was Tim Burtons first feature length flick.
And I saw you Fuptcha me, that is patent pending! My patent
Haha… oh yeah that was Burton… I thought you meant Midnight Madness, my bad
@Grey: I just remember they went to the Pabst Blue Ribbon brewery
It was the best worst movie, hard to beat, but you can try
@Grey: Im going to put Over the Edge out there as one of my best worst movies ever
Don’t know that one
@Grey: Layer Cake is great for 2 main reasons: Sienna. Miller.
You’ve. Sold. Me. Rawr.
With the regression you expect from Jonathan Villar would you deal him for Danny Duffy?
I’d want more
So was Busta Rhymes…
All music, really… A simpler time
Here’s to hoping your Chrismukkah was Mary and full of virgins!
Your Festivus Miracles were a plenty…and your bagels were shut up tight and full of locks…
I got my bagel on lox! Bummed about Leia…
Hope you had a great holiday!
@Grey: I hope I did too!
She’s never gonna dance again…
If Michael J Fox dies, I might not recover
@Grey: Let’s just hope that it will not be parking-related…
Or parasailing
Wake me up before you Han Solo…
I want your slimy piece of worm ridden filth!
These guilty droids have got no rhythm…
Lando ’90
I’m your Han!
Sooooo…….Transylvania 6-5000 isn’t a good movie???
Haha… its soundtrack has the first Tupac track ever
@Grey: For real?!?! That AND Nothing But Trouble!?!? Pac killing those monster comedies.
Oh crap, nope, you’re right, got my terrible horror comedies mixed up
@Grey: Oh man, I was truly excited about that.
I would watch either one of those movies right now.
Best terrible movie ever — Midnight Madness!
@Grey: is that the Michael J Fox one where they go on the scavenger hunt?
Yes! Oh my god, best ever… I think wendie jo sperber was in it too
@Grey: The sister from Back to the Future? Woof
So sexy!
@Grey: you so want a threesome with her and Mindy Cohn
Oh hells yeah! I need to rough ride in Jumbo Clown’s style!
Ugly girl crush!
I also know he did not contribute to the Love At First Bite soundtrack either
Ok MEG, the whole Tupac thing caught my attention. I looked for it, but 2-Pac would have been like 14-years old. Strangely enough, I could not find a list of the soundtrack for T-6-5000, can’t believe I just spent 20 minutes researching that.
Hope you had an awesome Holiday!
Ahhhh, NBT, turrable movie, just turrable….
“Now I clown around when I hang around with the underground…”
That’s what I’m sayin’!
I can’t believe you’re not excited about researching that! Hope you had a good one too!
How would you rank DeGrom, Price, Salazar?
My rankings will be out in January… prolly degrom, Salazar
@Grey:
Thanks Grey! I always appreciate your insight
No problem
Hey Grey! Struggling with my keeper selection. What are your thoughts? 12 team $260 budget with R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBP, & SLG, and K, K/9, QS, SV, HD, ERA, & WHIP. Keep 6.
Arenado $18
Encarnacion $16
Dahl $1
Colome $1
K. Davis $7
D. Travis $2
T. Anderson $1
B. Hamilton $12
Desclafani $1
Saunders $1
Thanks!
Andy
Arenado, Dahl, Travis, Davis, Edwin, then toss up… Prolly go Anderson
@Grey: great, thanks!
No problem
How much does Pederson’s value increase in OBP leagues?
A ton, he’s top 35 OBP in the majors
with this lineupk and assuming i match a 12 million bid on quintana (hopefully it’s only in that range not more) i’ll have 63.777 mil for 11 spots (5 of them are bench, urena is one of those, reynaldo lopez till he gets a job, both have too many innings to demote) so an average of 5.798 per.
C d’arnaud
CI (2) beltre
MI (2) segura
OF (3) altherr/rosario
util (1) drury (could fit into any CI/MI/OF spot)
and this ranking
stanton/son of donald/votto/freeman/villar/braun/cano
cargo 1/E5/cespedes/pujols/upton/zobrist’/cain/jones
i’m attempting to tier them such that i’ll only attempt to win one of each tier at most (and bid smaller amounts as the tiers go downward, so if my bid on stanton is the most but the owner matches it would go on down to donald or votto only not both). we can bid 1-6 years on any bid, and if we cut anybody over 1 million we have to eat half of it (i got f’d 2 years ago having matched a 12 million j.werth bid 3 DAYS before it was announced he needed wrist surgery, which sapped the shit out of his power since, ended up eating 6 mil twice. if our damn process wasn’t so freakin early this wouldn’t have been matched of course)
tiers probably looking like (assumed years of bid in () )
T1. stanton (4), donald (2), votto (2), freeman (4) (this tier probably the 19-25 million tier)
T2. villar (3), braun (1) cano (2) cargo 1 (2) (16-22 million tier)
T3. E5 (1), cespedes (2) pujols (1), upton (2) 14-18 tier)
T4. zobrist (2) cain (2) jones (2) (10-14 tier)
1. do those years look about right?
2. does the bid amounts per tier look about right? i’m saying on a value scale, leaguewise in past years we’ve seen contracts 22-26 in some instances to get what’s perceived as top guys. right now trout costs 29.75, miggy 22.25. some cheaper that should be more. we now have higher budgets but it’s also much more a wild wild west out here as in past years we could’ve just extended guys by adding 6 million to their contracts, not anymore. more skill in team building from this point forward.
1. Votto for 1 2. Pujols prolly in T4, but these are all very close and look about right
Actually, on Votto, it’s not OBP is it?
Meh, on second thought, keep Votto as you have him
@Grey: ok, move pujols down, it’s OPS/holds added 6X6. those contract year amounts and tier bids look bout right. due to possible injuries i’m really loath to give ANYBODY more than 4 years. guys who could fall completely off a cliff at any time no more than 1 (pujols/E5)
Grey,
I give up Adam Duvall
I get Gary Sanchez
Make the deal?
@Scott Kimmel: keep forever at no prices keeper/dynasty? give me the kraken (and some rum too)
yes keep forever in a dynasty/keeper league
Sanchez
ok grey i am making the deal if I am reading you correctly
@Scott Kimmel: this means you don’t end up with duvall at the end of it.