I’ve mentioned this about sixteen dozen times previously, but here goes sixteen-dozen and one times. There’s sleepers ever year who fall into this category: These guys have already broken out, why don’t you believe them? Then I have to go about proving what they’ve already done was solid, and they can do it again. This is James Outman. He already had a great year. Maybe there’s just too many outfielders to draft, but I see him being drafted after 180 overall, and I think to myself, “Self, what’s going on here?” Besides there just being too many outfielders, the only other reason I can think is people don’t trust James Outman. Too easy to get Outman is what you say, incorrectly, and I say, correctly, about his draft price. See what I did there? I’m not sure myself so don’t ask me to repeat it. It’s gone forever now! Last year, James Outman put up the line of 86/23/70/.248/16 in 483 ABs. Geez, his line already looks like what I’m praying/hoping/please daddy’ing from number two outfielder, forget about where he’s going around 3rd to 4th outfielders. Is 86/23/70/.248/16 in 483 ABs really only, roughly, the 45th best outfielder off the board as I’ve seen? It’s a glorious time, but is it that glorious, Gloria, G-L-O-R-I-A? Maybe it is. That’s the only excuse for him falling in drafts. I will hear no other! So, what can we expect from James Outman for 2024 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
PSYCHE! I’ve begun to roll out my 2024 fantasy baseball rankings on the Patreon. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out next month. Anyway II, the James Outman sleeper:
Since the numbers are so on their face glorious, let’s look at drawbacks. The biggest drawback from James Outman that I see is he hasn’t hit lefties yet. I modify with “yet” because he was a rookie. Yes, he didn’t hit lefties last year, but he got to face them, and maybe with more looks he can get better. If that’s the biggest drawback, then you best find better drawbacks! Fine, fine, another drawback is his 31.9% K%, and he hit a .343 BABIP. So, the assumption might be he was going to hit .230 or lower in 2024. Hold your flaps, jack. His last Triple-A year, he had a .343 BABIP too. His Double-A year: a .386 BABIP. He’s not a speed demon, but he’s no slowpoke. Slowpoke is also what tunas call their brothers and sisters who were caught for poke. Slowpoke is also the worst fast casual dining restaurant. “Dude, I’m trying to get out of here, where’s my food?” That’s someone at Slowpoke.
James Outman could steal 25+ bags with an uptick in average, or a downtick in strikeouts. So, any hope? Yes! That’s why I’m here! The thing I didn’t mention above about his Triple-A BABIP, he hit .292 that year with only a 25% strikeout rate. Also, look at his splits from last year: In the 1st half, he struck out 34.4% of the time and hit .236. In the 2nd half, he hit .264 with a 29.1% K%. Oh, and his walk rate in the 2nd half? 15.8%! That was almost double the first half. Do you see a trend? Gosh, I hope so. These trends were prevalent in the minors too. In Oklahoma, guys and dolls, he hit .213 when he was first called up, and .447 and .287 the next two months. Same checks out for Double-A. Never before has he just sat and been able to get better at a level for longer than a year until now.
James Outman was truly hideous against breaking balls, but that’s expected from a rookie, no? If he can turn his .201 vs. breaking balls into something even as “just meh” as .230, he’s going to hit .270. I’m spending so much time on his average, because he already hit for power and he has speed. He’s a .270 average away from being a top 20 outfielder. The one drawback that remains that I can’t get rid of his marks vs. lefties. But remember that’s a drawback until it’s not. For 2024 fantasy baseball, I’ll give James Outman projections of 78/27/86/.256/19 in 504 ABs with a chance for much more.
