Ian Happ doesn’t even have a starting job, but I’m crazy excited about him.  I think he’s the first player I’ve ever written a sleeper post about without a guaranteed starting job.  He’s going to lack runs and RBIs, because Joe Maddon is so smart he needs to outwit himself to stay one step of himself.  Make sense?  It’s not supposed to.  Last year, he had 24 HRs, 8 SBs and .253 in only 364 ABs.  *fighting urge to prorate*  Ugh!  I’m not mentally strong enough to avoid the Prorating Monster.  Last year, he had 65% of an everyday player’s at-bats, so with a full-time job he would’ve had 32 homers, 11 steals in his rookie year.  *eyes roll up in top of head, faints, Giancarlo catches me in his arms, wiping my brow with his handkerchief*  “Thank you, Giancarlo.  Wait, that’s not your arm you caught me with?”  You might be thinking, as a rational person would, that Ian Happ was platooned because of his huge platoon splits.  Haha, yeah, no.  He’s a switch hitter with no real splits.  Also, you might be thinking he is stuck behind someone who absolutely has to play every day.  Yeah, nope.  He played 145 games last year across five positions.  The Cubs are just kinda stacked and Happ played everywhere.  Last year, he played the most games at center field.  Right now, he’s still projected to see the most time in center.  Guess who’s in front of him.  Go ahead, I won’t laugh if you say the wrong name.  Did you just say Crash Bandicoot?  That’s the worst guess I’ve ever heard.  In front of Happ is Albert Almora Jr.  I’m sorry, Maddon does bonkers shizz, but there’s no way Almora moves Happ to the bench more than a few times a week, and those times Happ can just play another position.  So, what can we expect from Ian Happ for 2018 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Member how I said he was a 32/11 guy prorated over the full season?  C’mon, of course, you remember, I just said it 19 sentences ago.  Well, if you were combine his 26 games in Triple-A last year with his major league line, he would’ve had a 33/10 season.  Wow, you’re quick on the uptake, he did hit 9 homers and stole two bases in only 26 Triple-A games.  He also hit .298.  In the majors, he hit .253 with a 31.2% strikeout rate.  That could be a problem, but if I had a dollar for every time a hitter had a decent strikeout rate in the minors, then a poor K-rate in his rookie year only to have a decent strikeout rate his sophomore year, I’d have some dollars.  I don’t know exactly how many dollars since Cougs doesn’t let me look at my bank account.  Ah, marriage.  Steamer is expecting Happ’s K-rate to come down to 27.4% this year, but if you look at his minor league numbers, he has plate discipline.  He had a 10.5% walk rate in the 2nd half last year, that would’ve been the 53rd best walk rate in the majors last year.  He’s a lot more a .360 OBP guy than the .328 one he was last year.  He was only 22 years old when he came up; patience in the majors will come.  When you were 23, you couldn’t even control where you peed.  I’m reminded of Anthony Rizzo’s 1st season when he had a 30.1% strikeout rate and people wrote him off as a .220 hitter.  Yeah, Rizzo now is a .275 hitter with a 13% K-rate.  I think Happ can be this good in a few years, and easily better than he was last year, and ‘better than last year’ is huge value for a guy regularly being drafted around 125 overall.  For 2018, I’ll give Ian Happ projections of 69/29/77/.261/11 in 466 ABs with a chance for much more.  Oh, and yes on Monday, the 2018 fantasy baseball rankings start.

   
  1. Racehorse says:
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    “Oh, and yes on Monday, the 2018 fantasy baseball rankings start”

    Me, my liver, and my dynasty team’s depth chart, all thank you !!!

    • Dodger Rabbit says:
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      @Racehorse: Second Christmas starts Monday! Woohoo!

      • Old School Brother says:
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        @Grey: Odor still in the top 20?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Oh cmon, OSB!

          • Curious George Springer says:
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            @Grey: are we still owning Deshizz everytwhere?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Why do you hurt me, CGS?

  2. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Cracking up at Giancarlo! Looking forward to the rankings!

    Happ reminds me of other guys we’ve all steered away from simply because they lack a starting job . . . but as Jeff Goldblum says, “life (and baseball talent) finds a way!).

  3. Rudy says:
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    Rankings monday! Yes! Double Christmas present!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Rudy: Double rainbow!

  4. sport says:
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    Really liked all your Sleeper posts and looking forward to the top ten on Monday. I even am considering giving Gausman another try this year. Never thought I would say that.

    What source do you use for early ADP’s?

  5. The Red Onion says:
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    Grey,
    I’m looking for keeper advice (we can keep up to 8 players each year + 1 MLR)
    12 Team Weekly H2H Points Keeper League (Auction – $300 Budget).

    Scoring for Batting: 1B/BB/HP = 1 pt., R/RBI = 1.25 pts., 2B/SB = 2 pts., 3B = 3 pts., HR = 4 pts.
    Scoring for Pitching: W/SV = 10 pts., INN = 2 pts., BBI/HA/HB = -0.5 pt., ER = -1 pt., K = 1 pt.

    C – J. Realmuto $1/2yrs
    1B – J. Smoak $10/1yr
    2B – J. Schoop $1/2yrs
    3B – N. Arenado $19/1yr
    SS – T. Story $15/1yr
    OF – M. Betts $33/1yr
    OF – G. Stanton $51/2yrs
    OF – T. Pham $10/1yr
    UTIL – D. Gregorius $10/1yr

    P – C. Carrasco $51/2yrs
    P – M. Clevinger $10/1yr
    P – J. Gray $21/2yrs
    P – P. Rivero $10/1yr
    P – C. Sale $28/1yr
    P – A. Wood $10/1yr
    P – J. Faria $10/1yr
    MLR – V. Robles

    *Years indicate time left at the current contract. (those at 1 yr will go up $5/yr starting next year).

    Which 8 should I go with? As always, I appreciate the help!

    • The Great Knoche says:
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      @The Red Onion: I’d do Smoak through Pham + Sale

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @The Red Onion: 2B – J. Schoop $1/2yrs
      3B – N. Arenado $19/1yr P – C. Sale $28/1yr
      P – A. Wood $10/1yr OF – G. Stanton $51/2yrs
      OF – T. Pham $10/1yr
      UTIL – D. Gregorius $10/1yr Realmuto

      I didn’t love a ton of these…

      • LenFuego says:
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        @Grey: I like Grey’s picks, but I might try to figure out a way to keep Betts, It would be hard to let Stanton go but if you think he will go for less than $60 in the auction you might do that. If you think Stanton will go well above that, then you should see which of these guys might fetch you something in a trade.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Stanton will likely go for around that

          • The Red Onion says:
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            @Grey:

            Thanks for the advice, gentlemen. I agree with LenFuego on Betts, as he’ll go for a lot more than $33 if I don’t keep him.
            I don’t know who everyone is keeping yet, but based on past auctions, if Stanton is the best player available I could easily see him going in the high $50’s and even low $60s being possible.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yeah, agreed

  6. Q says:
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    Without going into “proprietary” details, what do you use to come up with the auction values in your top 500 @ the end of the rankings? Is it super mathematical based on your exact projections (like Pre Season Player Rater) or do you kinda just go with your gut based on how you rank guys?

    Reason I ask is that you’re my favorite, but I play in leagues with different categories. So I’d like to take your rankings but switch in OBP for AVG, etc

    Thanks–can’t wait for next week!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Q: Rudy’s are mathematical, mine are more gut based

      • Old School Brother says:
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        @Grey: Grey is secretly George Bush

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Aw, geez!

  7. Tweak says:
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    Nice! Happ looks to be a great addition to the Cubs’ solid core.

    He feels to me a lot like Schoop going into the last two seasons (with a little more speed). The numbers are really not all that different. Heck, in a dynasty league (or after the draft this year), you could probably cash in on Schoop’s name value for Happ plus plus.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Tweak: I could see him out-producing Schoop with an everyday job…

  8. Fungazi says:
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    Grey’s top 10 leaked!

    Trout, Altuve, Goldschmidt, Harper, Arenado, Turner, Betts, Blackmon, Machado, Stanton

      • Huffin Gas says:
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        @Grey: And you thought the Russian government had no interest in you or fantasy baseball…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          It’s when you let down your guard…

        • Fungazi says:
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          @Huffin Gas: Just wait til we leak his nudie selfies next week

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Hey cmon!

  9. Packers says:
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    Hey Grey,

    I’m glad I have Happ in a couple of dynasty leagues. I have a trade question.
    I offered my McCullers and M. Taylor for his Benintendi. He said he wants a better SP. I would only only offer Gausman, Faria, or K. Hendricks. What order would you rate those 3 in a 12 team dynasty and do you think I should make this trade?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Packers: Don’t see those other three getting it done… McCullers is the best one

      • cmutimmah says:
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        @Grey: Hendricks might carry some name cache after being so good two years ago…

        McCullers is the best of the bunch though.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, agreed

      • Packers says:
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        @Grey: That’s my take too. I’ll give him his choice and let him pick, or no deal.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yup

  10. Jake says:
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    How would you rank Happ, Ozuna, Upton in keeper OBP?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Jake: Ozuna, Upton

  11. Chuck Norris says:
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    10-TM Mixed Keeper League

    Currently have this pitching roster:
    STARTERS
    P Max Scherzer
    P Jon Lester
    P Brad Peacock
    P Luke Weaver
    P Jimmy Nelson
    P Danny Duffy
    P Lance Lynn
    RELIEVERS
    P Aroldis Chapman
    P Brad Hand
    P AJ Ramos
    P Jeurys Familia
    P Brandon Kintzler
    P Shane Greene
    P Blake Treinen

    Thinking of this list for keepers:
    Scherzer, Lester, Peacock, Weaver, Nelson…..Chapman, Hand, Familia

    Do you agree? Or should I also keep Duffy/Lynn for solid, if unspectacular, production….
    Any of the other garbage relievers you high on that you see worth keeping?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Chuck Norris: Hmm, tough call, what’s Familia’s health like?

    • LenFuego says:
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      @Chuck Norris: It is not clear to me whether Familia will be the go-to saves guy over Ramos with the Mets, and they might just end up splitting closer duties. I would be tempted to keep Duffy or Lynn over either of them unless and until the Mets announce one of them as having the upper hand.

  12. Dubs23 says:
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    Would you trade Luke Weaver for Happ? Keeper league.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I would

  13. Simps says:
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    Stoked about rankings eve!

    Grey, and really any of you guys, what are your thoughts on the slow email draft? It’s getting harder and harder for our group to get together for a live draft ( year 13 of a keeper league). I hate online drafts. So, thoughts… tips, etc.?

    Thanks in advance

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Why not do an email draft? See no down side unless people forget to make picks and you have to keep hounding them…

    • TroutWars says:
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      @Simps: Agree with Grey. You could also set a precedent for rules. Like make there be a clock and once the team ahead of them picks then they are “on the clock.” If they don’t pick in a certain time limit it goes to the next person.

  14. TroutWars says:
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    Would you trade my Schoop for his Rendon?

    6X6 OPS roto keeper league. Keep forever no costs.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Nah

      • TroutWars says:
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        @Grey: I was feeling the same way. Worth it if I can get him to add Francisco Mejia? We get a 5 man minors roster.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I suppose, doesn’t excite me that much tho

  15. Ben says:
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    Battle of 30-something toolsy outfielders with big question marks — Pollock or Marte? Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Marte, but they’re close

  16. Chris says:
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    Edwin Diaz/Paxton. For eloy Jimenez-puk-houck-haniger and 2 minor league picks. Dynasty
    Which side

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Eloy

  17. Darek says:
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    What do you do with Grandal in a keep forever league? Hold to see what his role is? Waivers has the typical bleh catcher fare, although I could drop him for Barnes, assuming the playoff PT is indicative of the direction the Dodgers are going to go. I also could roster both until the season starts, as we have some middle relief slots that I also use for in season roster flexibility, but I hate carrying 2 catchers, even in offseason.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I think Barnes is the Dodgers starter right now

      • cmutimmah says:
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        @Grey: I’m not sure how the Dodgers didn’t move Grandal yet… they are going to be paying 8 million for a backup catcher? That can’t happen.

        • cmutimmah says:
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          @cmutimmah: “Hey season ticket holders, I know we increased season tickets by 20-30% this year, but just know it’s allowing us to have an 8 million dollar backup catcher, so it’s totally worth it.”

          Not really a smart business decision…

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Not sure they or most fans really care…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, surprised they haven’t moved him, but they do have $

  18. I really hope Happ can find his way to 550 PA, I really think he’s going to be a stud but he needs starting spot. Hopefully it gets figured out this year.

    Based on a lot of his number he seems like a similar player to Story. Plate discipline & K rate is a little lower but if you had your choice for 2018 only, who are taking between the two?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I think he’s got better discipline than Story, but Story over him this year due to starting job…

      • @Grey: That’s fair I think so too. Plus Coors

  19. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Looking to snag Bellinger ($5) in a 12 team, keep 5 forever OBP OPS league.

    Is Goldy ($51) + Severino ($4) too pricey, or about right? Goldy’s price would take him out of keeper territory in 2019.

    If I did the trade, keepers would be:

    1. Rhys ($5)
    2. Bellinger ($5)
    3. Harper ($58)
    plus 2 of: Domingo/Devers/Olson (all $5 each), Upton ($13), Nola ($7), or Darvish ($23).

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Doesn’t sound too pricey

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        @Grey: thanks sir!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  20. Curt C says:
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    Happ or Moncada?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Close…Hmm…

  21. Christian herman says:
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    My beautiful dark grey twisted fantasy begins Monday.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha, yes!

  22. Sweatpants Nation says:
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    Quick trade question. Which side?
    Segura and Cobb or Moncado and Berrios

    Kinda see it as predictability vs upside. Is it close?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, agreed…It’s close…. I’d lean Moncada/Berrios

      • Sweatpants Nation says:
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        @Grey: thanks, as always. Looking forward to Monday! Have a good weekend

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          You too!

  23. Chucky says:
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    12 Team, 12 player keeper, no contracts. 6×6 OBP. Happ or Vlad Jr? Have no 2B keeper, was going into draft looking at the #8/9/10 2B available. Including my throwback Happ. Should I keep Happ and let Vlady go? I can pick up a Happ/Albies types

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d go Happ

  24. swaggerjackers says:
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    Here’s my guess for your top 10:

    Trout
    Altuve
    Turner
    Goldy
    Harper
    Arenado
    Mookie
    Blackmon
    Bryant
    Machado

    • Curious George Springer says:
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      @swaggerjackers: Stanton has to be in there. I’m guessing Stanton over Blackmon. rest looks about right to me.

      • swaggerjackers says:
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        @Curious George Springer: Yeah, I could see Stanton and Judge lingering right around the 8-12 range.

    • J-FOH says:
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      @swaggerjackers: Trea Turner will be in there

      • swaggerjackers says:
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        @J-FOH: I can’t tell if you’re trolling or legitimately didn’t notice he’s 3rd overall.

        • Cj says:
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          @swaggerjackers: he’s way to in love w Stanton to not have him top 8

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Nope

      • LenFuego says:
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        @Grey: I’ll take a crack at predicting Grey’s top 10:

        Trout
        Altuve
        Goldy
        Blackmon
        Turner
        Harper
        Stanton
        Arenado
        Correa
        Machado

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Nope!

    • Crime dog says:
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      @swaggerjackers: trout, altuve, goldy, turner, nado, betts, blackmon, harper, Stanton, Correa

  25. Tyler says:
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    Quick trade question:

    12 team, 18 keeper league, 9×9 – R, H, SB, BB, K, HR, RBI, AVG, OPS

    Keepers:

    Lucroy, Belt, D Gordon, Bryant, B Crawford, Trout, Betts, Springer, J upton, Eaton, R Zimmerman, David Peralta, Price, Darvish, Aaron Sanchez, Garrett RIchards, Quintana, Kimbrel

    I was offered Jean Segura and Freddie Freeman for Springer. I think it’s definitely a solid offer. I love Freddie, but I also love Springer so I thought I’d shop for some outside input/advice haha.

    Also, thoughts on Matt Olson, Keeper?

    Thanks in advance Grey!

    • Chucky says:
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      Freeman for Springer alone is a steal. Adding Segura makes it a felony.

      • Curious George Springer says:
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        @Chucky: Hey Now!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d want Freeman side… Thoughts on Olson in what way? I like him, I’ll go over him in my rankings next week…

      • Tyler says:
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        @Grey: Thanks! And I like Olson too. I was just curious as to whether you think he’s keeper worthy right now. I picked him up late last season and he obviously went on a tear when he was up. We all know that he has some pop, I’ve just been debating on whether I’m going to keep him or try to get him back in the draft.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          In some leagues he’s a keeper, hard to say without knowing any specifics about your league…

  26. Brett says:
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    I don’t think I saw you write anything on urias? Thoughts on him does he start the year in la rotation?

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Brett: I dont think he starts the year with the club. He will most likely go into the pen when he comes back.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      He has no starting job

  27. E says:
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    Betts and Brinson for Trout? Dynasty 6×6 roto (obp, slg)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Trout side, it’s fairish

  28. jack florida says:
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    st got back from a movie doubleheader

    jumanji–found it very amusing and very entertaining

    lady bird—-having grown up in the northeast [rhode island] being an irish catholic and going to catholic schools my whole life, i found this to be hilarious and on point for me. my father was a carbon copy of lady birds’ mother. i liked it a lot

    • jack florida says:
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      @jack florida: *****just got back******

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Nice! Yeah, I enjoyed Lady Bird, it was sweet, and I also grew up in the NE… Haven’t seen Jumanji…

  29. Dean White says:
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    Damn – I was actually hoping I wouldn’t see a sleeper article on Happ this early. Now that you’ve written one, the following plebes at the global leader are sure to copy, er, come up with one of their own due diligence soon enough.

    One question – who’ll have a better OBP this year – Happ or Hoskins? Some similarities there.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Hoskins

  30. Mom says:
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    In a dynasty do you want Donaldson or Pollock/Taillon

    Rank these guys too
    Beltre
    Taillon
    Godley

    Very much in it this year, not “tooling up for 3 years from now” or whatever

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Pollock…. Godley, Beltre

  31. Uncle Ernie says:
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    I have Trout and might keep him even at $64. It’s an 8 team league with 8 keepers. I think if I don’t keep him he would problebly go for that or more on auction day since the remaining talent would be lacking causing him to get bid up. I offered him and Carrasco for Freeman at only $15. A bargain. Thoughts anyone. Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d take Freeman for $15 if you had 7 other keepers, but Trout will go for at least $64 in your league…

  32. Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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    Grey! Sorry, this new job of not sitting behind a desk all day has me interneting much less.

    Yes, I got a new chick and met the parents at Xmas. Been with her since the beginning of October. She’s from around my hometown so we only see each other once or twice a week. What’s good with you?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Doode! You have to get another job sitting behind a desk all day! That’s awesome you already found a new chick… You know her from around the way prior to dating her?

      • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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        @Grey: Actually my ex from like 10 years ago hooked me up with her. Never knew her before. She’s cool, going good so far. Nice dating someone normal, forgot what it was like.

        How are things?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          That’s awesome! Things are cool with me, Cougs and I are in Palm Springs this weekend meeting up with Rudy…

          • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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            @Grey: Nice! Sounds better than the ice and snow I’m buried under now. Plus side, I’m getting paid to not work because of it today.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              We gotta figure out how to get paid to not work all the time…

              • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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                @Grey: You seem to have it down pat. Oh snap!

                • Uncle Ernie says:
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                  @Dr. Kenneth Noisewater: it’s better to work only some of the time than to not work all the time. Take it from me!

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Hehe, it’s my goal!

                  • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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                    @Grey: One of these days I’ll get you caught up on my sneaker purchases too.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Look forward to it!

  33. El Marco says:
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    Can’t wait for the rankings. Thought we might see a sleeper post on Zack Godley. Is he close to Castillo?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, I like Godley, he’s close to Castillo

  34. M says:
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    Which side for next year: Blackmon ($26) and Happ ($6) or D.Gordon ($22) and E.Rosario ($12)?

    • M says:
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      @M: *Rosario is ($7) if that changes anything

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Blackmon

  35. Schwab says:
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    Hey Grey,
    Looking forward for the rankings Monday. Trade Sano for Happ? It’s an 8 team, keep 15 every year. Thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Nah, I’d hold Sano

    • Uncle Ernie says:
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      @Schwab: according to TMZ Sano spotted hanging with Weinstein at local restaurant discussing legal strategies.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Haha

  36. Test Kitchen says:
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    Grey,

    In a dynasty format, 10 teams where 25 are kept on each team, who would you prefer: Gerrit Cole or Blake Snell?

    My team is built to compete now and for the foreseeable future. Think Snell can be better than Cole this year?

    Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Snell

  37. Nightpandas says:
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    Got offered Darvish or CMart for Hoskins in a 15 team keeper…enough ?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d want Hoskins

  38. Ian says:
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    Snell or McMahon in a dynasty startup?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Tough call, I’d risk it with McMahon

  39. Reese says:
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    12 team mixed keeper league, would you trade Myers for pham and Familia?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Nope

  40. LeftCoastYankee says:
    (link)

    Are the rankings out yet?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Tomorrow!

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