Fire And Ice Summer Outfield Edition

Hope everyone had a wonderful Memorial Day weekend. We already have about a third of a season in the books… where does the time go? What do you say we play a game of Who’s Hot and Who’s Not, wRC+ edition? Here’s a batch of guys who are sizzling over the last 30 days, and then a batch who are as cold as the weather here in NJ this weekend. Stats are for the 30 days ending on Sunday. I’m skipping the Byron Buxtons and Jordan Walkers of the world, because there’s obviously no action to take. Without further ado…

Hot as Blazes

Gavin Sheets 171 wRC+, .282, 6 HR

Carlos Cortes 167 wRC+, .358, 0% K-BB%

Michael Conforto 162 wRC+, 3 HR, .273

Blake Dunn 161 wRC+, .351

Harrison Bader 160 wRC+, 4 HR in 44 PA

JJ Bleday 158 wRC+ 6 HR, .271

The Padres have a loaded lineup on paper, but as of this writing, you and I still have as many MLB homers this year as Fernando Tatis Jr., and none of Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, or anyone else is doing much. Sheets is their best hitter and has pretty much shaken off his strong side platoon tag as he hasn’t missed a start since May 7th. He’s slashing .253/.331/.507 with 9 homers and 3 steals and should be rostered in all formats.

I mentioned Cortes last week as part of the A’s OF rundown, and so far it looks like he’s keeping his strong side platoon gig, and Lawrence Butler is the odd man out. Cortes popped a homer yesterday, but that’s his first one in a month, and he only has 5 runs and 6 RBI’s, so he’s not a real fantasy stud here. But he’s got terrific plate skills and bats leadoff in an excellent lineup in a hitters’ paradise, so if nothing else, he’s a huge Avg plus, and the runs should pick up too.

Conforto….um, well, he’s pretty much getting strong-side run in Chicago, but I’m not sure I’m really buying into this. He dropped his bat speed from 74 to 72.9 and his Fast Swing% from 42.6% to 33.6%, and he’s somehow making less contact while his EV has exploded from 89.9 to 94.8. I’m no physics major, but that all seems kind of the opposite of what we’d expect. It’s 80 PA’s total on the year, it just strikes me as small sample size noise for a 33 year old in a really crowded situation. Maybe try to ride in deep formats while he’s hot, but don’t get caught holding too long.

I’ll batch Dunn and Bleday since they’re both now starting regularly in the Reds outfield, and Great America Ballpark is a nice place to call home. Bleday’s been up since 4/26, and I’m absolutely buying into this one as it’s kind of the exact opposite of Conforto. He’s raised his bat speed from 71.7 to 74.6, and his Fast Swing% from 14.7% to 47.9% (!), and the results are glorious. His K% is down from 26.5% last year to 16.8% this year, and he’s lifted his EV from 88.7 to 91.6 and his Barrel% from 7.8% to 13%. He’s done it before, as he had 20 homers and a 120 wRC+ in Oakland in 2024. I’m buying in here in all formats.

As for Dunn, it’s really just a deep league flyer at this point. He’s gotten the last 5 starts, and he’s batting .351 on the year, but it’s just 40 PA’s. It’s encouraging to see that K% at just 22.5%, as he had a 33.3% K% in 75 PA’s last year. But he’s got a .444 BABIP so far, and there’s nothing in there to suggest it’s anything, but he’s found some holes early on. His HardHit% is just 32.1%, and his xWOBA is a weak .292. I did have him on some FAAB bid waterfalls in deep leagues, but I really don’t see much here other than he’s a regular for now.

Speaking of regulars, Bader plays every day for the Giants, and he’s generally a guy that’s good to roster when healthy. His season-long stats are terrible at ..181/.212/.394, but he’s hot lately and will presumably steal a base again at some point (he has 0 this year).

Cold as Ice

Kyle Stowers 57 wRC+, .175, 3 HR

Ramon Laureano 56 wRC+, .151, 2 HR

Sal Frelick 64 wRC+ .229, 2 HR, 11 Runs, 13 RBI, 3 steals

Chandler Simpson 70 wRC+ .255, 13 Runs, 7 steals

Stowers burst on the scene last season with a .288 Avg and 28 homers in just 457 PA’s, but missed the last quarter of the year and then the first month this year. His plate skills have stayed pretty bad, while the power surge has vanished

There’s really not a lot you can do here. I’d probably sell in a trading league if it wasn’t a big discount, but I’d just hold in redraft in hope he can find it again. 

Laureano, I really believed in his resurgence last year. He’s always been an interesting power-speed guy with health and whiff issues. Well, he’s stayed on the field so far, but the K’s are back up from a career low 24.4% to 31.7% and hitting just .211 on the year. The 6 homers and 5 steals aren’t awful, and his 14% Barrel% is identical to last year when he popped 24 homers, so there’s some hope he picks it up. 

Frelick’s 12 homers last season were a gift, as you really were rostering him for his average and runs and maybe some steals. Well, he’s batting just .217 on the year, so ugh. Yeah, it’s a .227 BABIP vs. .298 in his career, so perhaps there’s some bad luck involved. But he has just a 24.3% HardHit% and his xBA is only .238. I cut him in deep format last week, that’s my opinion here. All you’re getting is playing time on a good team.

With Simpson, you know you’re getting zero power and lots of steals, the only real variable is his Avg. He needs to hit near .300 to really help us, otherwise he’s an empty speed profile that’s pretty available in all formats. He’s still at .285 on the year, but it’s trending the wrong way. That’s especially true since his 14 total steals are good, but that only paces out to 42 on the year, and you’re kind of hoping for a monster total here since he’s tanking us in homers and RBI’s.