If you haven’t noticed by now, I freaking love stats. In fact, one of the few things I love more than stats is fantasy baseball. And luckily the two go together like lamb and tuna fish. So I decided to dedicate my weekly release to something new. As many people spend hours upon hours analyzing batter vs pitcher and other split stats, I am going to focus on what is truly important to your roto success: categories.

Each week, I plan to give you an idea of which teams have the most favorable and least favorable match-ups by looking at their opposing scheduled starters for the week. I do this by taking each opposing pitchers’ stats and giving you an idea of which teams should expect to score the most (and least) Rs, HRs, RBIs, SBs, and highest/lowest OBP for the week. I will then give you some suggested spot starts for the week based on the categories (players owned in less than 50% of leagues).

For the first full month of April, I will strictly be using starting pitcher statistics from last season to project out the week. However, as we move forward throughout the season, I will transition to the starters’ 2016 statistics so that I can give you the most accurate and relative numbers to help you win your roto league!

So sit back, crack open a coldie, and let’s nerd out with our bird out. It’s time to play some damn baseball!

(Keep in mind, the categories analyzed are for a 5×5 OBP format.)

 

Runs/OBP: Stats Against

For the week of 4/4-4/10, here are the teams that have the best and worst match-ups as far as Runs and OBP are concerned:

Favorable
Team SP ERA Team SP OBPA
1. Washington 4.62 1. Washington 0.333
2. Cincinnati 4.26 2. San Francisco 0.324
3. Houston 4.15 3. St. Louis 0.324
4. Minnesota 4.08 4. Cincinnati 0.322
5. St. Louis 3.99 5. San Diego 0.318
Unfavorable
Team SP ERA Team SP OBPA
30. Atlanta 2.73 30. Chicago Sox 0.272
29. Boston 3.10 29. Boston 0.282
28. Colorado 3.16 28. Atlanta 0.288
27. Chicago Sox 3.23 27. Seattle 0.290
26. Philadelphia 3.34 26. Milwaukee 0.292

SP ERA= Average ERA for all starting pitchers that a team will face in the week.

SP OBPA= Average OBP allowed for all starting pitchers that a team will face in the week.

The Run/OBP Plays (Owned <50% of ESPN leagues):

  1. OF- Jayson Werth (Available in 83% of ESPN leagues): Jayson Werthless is far from worthless in OBP leagues, as the half man/half wolverine has put up a career .365 OBP. He has a tendency to start off seasons slow, but a match-up against the worst pitchers in the league should be favorable enough to start him in your league.
  2. 3B- Eugenio Suarez (Available in 87% of ESPN leagues): Suarez is coming into 2016 as hot as you can get for a youngster, as he has hit for a .444 OBP in spring to go along with 10 runs. And although he should bat at the end of the order for the Reds, Cincinnati’s weekly opposing pitchers seems to favor lots of scoring.
  3. SS- Danny Espinosa (Available in 98% of ESPN leagues): I know, I wish Trae Turner woulda won the job too! But look up Danny Espinosa’s picture on ESPN and try and not love this man. His mustache is spectacular. And his match-ups aren’t bad either!

 

HRs/RBIs: Stats Against

For the week of 4/4-4/10, here are the teams that have the best and worst match-ups as far as HRs and RBIs are concerned:

Favorable 
Team SP HR/9 Team SP RBI/9
1. Detroit 1.23 1. Washington 4.50
2. Washington 1.23 2. Cincinnati 4.06
3. Baltimore 1.12 3. NY Mets 3.98
4. St. Louis 1.12 4. St. Louis 3.97
5. Texas 1.11 5. San Diego 3.97
 Unfavorable
Team SP HR/9 Team SP RBI/9
30. Atlanta 0.51 30. Atlanta 2.70
29. Colorado 0.62 29. Boston 2.95
28. LA Angels 0.72 28. Chicago Sox 3.03
27. Cleveland 0.82 27. Colorado 3.08
26. Pittsburgh 0.83 26. Kansas City 3.23

SP HR/9= Average amount of HRs given up per nine innings for all starting pitchers that a team will face in the week.

SP RBI/9= Average amount of RBIs given up per nine innings for all starting pitchers that a team will face in the week.

The HR/RBI Plays (Owned <50% of ESPN leagues):

  1. 2B- Jonathan Schoop (Available in 63% of ESPN leagues): Jonathan Schoop is a name that you probably have heard a lot this offseason. And so far, so good, as Schoop is coming off of a spring where he has shown some real promise. In 62 Spring ABs, Schoop has knocked in four dingers with only SEVEN strikeouts. I expect a big week from Schoop to kickoff a big year for him in 2016.
  2. 1B- Mitch Moreland (Available in 70% of ESPN leagues): Moreland is slated to hit 5th in a lineup that should fill up the stats sheet in HRs this week. It doesn’t hurt that Moreland has 25 homer power and is likely available in your league.
  3. 1B- Matt Adams (Available in 96% of ESPN leagues): There is not much to like about Fat Adams other than the fact that he just “won” the full time first base job (for now) in St. Louis. But with the Cards facing pitchers who gave up the top-5 most HRs and RBIs last year, it is hard to not use your add on a red-bird. And Adams is one of the few who is available in your league that has any sort of power potential.

 

Stolen Bases: Stats Against

For the week of 4/4-4/10, here are the teams that have the best and worst match-ups as far as Stolen Bases is concerned:

Favorable 
Team SP SB/9
1. LA Angels 0.82
2. Colorado 0.75
3. LA Dodgers 0.74
4. Cincinnati 0.66
5. Oakland 0.63
Unfavorable 
Team SP SB/9
30. Detroit 0.18
29. Miami 0.22
28. Cleveland 0.24
27. Atlanta 0.26
26. Washington 0.35

SP SB/9= Average amount of SBs given up per nine innings for all starting pitchers that a team will face in the week.

The SB Plays (Owned <50% of ESPN leagues):

  1. SS- Trevor Story (Available in 55% of ESPN leagues): Trevor Story is destroying the ball this spring, and I am getting all sorts of awful puns thrown my way from the owner of him in my league. And although Story has yet to showcase his speed, it definitely is there. He has 15 SB potential and should be able to snag a base or two against SPs that hate holding runners on.
  2. 2B- Jose Peraza (Available in 90% of ESPN leagues): Jose Peraza would be number one on the list here but playing time concerns have me a little shy. Peraza is a legit threat to steal 40 bags one day, but for now, just keep him on your radar. With a favorable match-up and 6 SBs in spring, expect him to run like the wind if he plays.
  3. OF- Carl Crawford  (Available in 98% of ESPN leagues): With Andre Ethier down for the count, Carl Crawford is an interesting play for those in need of some speed. Even at the age of 33, Crawford ripped 10 bags in only 181 ABs in 2015, showing that he still has a bit of gas left in the tank. Oddly enough Crawford is projected to hit at the top of the order and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some fireworks from him on the base-paths this week.
 
  1. AL KOHOLIC says:
    (link)

    ill give crawford a few starts,i need some steals

    • Hodysseus

      Hodysseus says:
      (link)

      @AL KOHOLIC: Also tough to tell what you need at this point, but if you are desperate worth the go.

  2. Johnc says:
    (link)

    Werth and Moreland both available in 12 teamer, H2H league. Need for one week only most likely. You like both but love for you to pick one. Pre-season rankings would suggest all hitting categories will be close except for Triples, Walks, Ks.

    • Hodysseus

      Hodysseus says:
      (link)

      @Johnc: Is it OBP league? If so, go Werth just because he has great vale long term. If not, I like Moreland.

  3. Glenn Halpern says:
    (link)

    Hey whaddya think about this trade?

    Trade Cain and Cueto to get back Kluber and Ozuna.

    • Hodysseus

      Hodysseus says:
      (link)

      @Glenn Halpern: I like the Cain side unless you really need pitching. Osuna will be great but Cain is in the same tier as Marte imo.

      • Glenn Halpern says:
        (link)

        @Hodysseus: Thanks very much for the response. my issue is more that i’m just loaded in outfield, and have pretty good pitching. looking to balance out my team.

        • Hodysseus

          Hodysseus says:
          (link)

          @Glenn Halpern: one of those good problems. I like the trade for you if that is the case.

  4. Snake Mountain says:
    (link)

    OBP league…Do I drop AJ Pollock for Socrates, or for Yasmany Tomas?

    • I don't want to brag but i have irritable bowel syndrome says:
      (link)

      @Snake Mountain: tomas was already LF before that injury. as of today owings played CF.

  5. Super D says:
    (link)

    I need a SP in a deep league: Stripling, Skaggs, Hill, Greene, or Wisler? Thanks!

    • Hodysseus

      Hodysseus says:
      (link)

      @Super D: Wisler

  6. BitchesBeShoppach says:
    (link)

    Should I drop Buxton for holiday? It’s an obp league but it’s for my fourth OF. I was hoping to have Buxton when he finally clicks but I dunno

    • Hodysseus

      Hodysseus says:
      (link)

      @BitchesBeShoppach: No other options? I like em both for very different reasons

  7. dom says:
    (link)

    start Story (@Greinke) over Wil Myers (Kershaw) Monday? avg/obp/slg league

    • dom says:
      (link)

      @dom: hold Joe Ross over Matt Moore? thx

      • Hodysseus

        Hodysseus says:
        (link)

        @dom: I have them ranked like next to each other. Let a few weeks play out and decide. I can see both breaking out.

    • Hodysseus

      Hodysseus says:
      (link)

      @dom: Pains me to start a SS at Util. I would start Story at home and Myers when Story is away.

      But in this scenario go with Story against Greinke.

  8. Hodysseus

    Hodysseus says:
    (link)

    Pains me to start a SS at Util. I would start Story at home and Myers when Story is away for now.

  9. OJ Simpson says:
    (link)

    Love the charts. Agree with you on Werth/Crawford if only they could morph into one player and stay healthy for a season. I just can’t get behind Moreland although he does have that pop. Great read as always will be drinking a cold one today my friend. Baseball is back!

    • Hodysseus

      Hodysseus says:
      (link)

      @OJ Simpson: I have a draft tonight (weird I know), so I will be booze hounding as well.

      I have Werth and Michael Taylor and it puts me in a situation where I almost am rooting for a Werth injury. I feel like he has a legit shot at 20-20 if he gets 600 PAs. I recommend you doing the same if you have some deeper benches.

  10. Steve Stevenson says:
    (link)

    6×6 OBP w/ K as the 6th cat. Is Ozuna’s power potential enough to outweigh the hits you’ll take in OBP, K and SB in this format? He’s just sitting there begging me to pick him up as a bench bat. Fowler is my 4th OF and Domingo Santana and Jaso are my 2nd Util/bench bat. My team should be good on power, but I can never have enough.

    • Hodysseus

      Hodysseus says:
      (link)

      @Steve Stevenson: In an OBP league, Jaso’s value increases as you probably already know. I would hold off on Ozuna for a bit and I think Santana is almost identical to him stat-wise.

      • Steve Stevenson says:
        (link)

        @Hodysseus: Thanks, was thinking along the same lines in the draft. Love Ozuna but this ain’t the best format for him.

  11. Tony says:
    (link)

    In a 5×5 12 team OBP league. I have a deep squad with the exception of SS. Brad Miller is my starter and I would like to pair him with another option. Ketel Marte was dropped in my league and is currently on waivers. I added Javier Baez immediately after the injury to Scwharber today. The injury, the struggles of Soler,and the Baez’s positional versatility has me thinking there is a huge opportunity for Baez to get AB’s and provide excellent power/speed numbers due to his production in the minors. Do you think the huge upside and 25/15 potential of Baez make him a better add than Marte who is a much safer but lower-ceiling alternative? Baez qualifies at 2B,SS,3B so his versatility is a nice bonus as well. I am a mess thinking abt my SS situation since I’ve seen plenty of projections where Marte is a superior option at SS to Miller. Not sure what to do so I’d love to hear your thoughts. Thanks.

Comments are closed.