All right, your boi EWB took first place in the DFS Wars Friday Night contest last night, and I’m hoping a strong finish will propel me into the NFL season. Yesterday, I pursued Eric Lauer and Dylan Cease as my top SPs, forgoing players like Gerrit Cole and Sonny Gray. Son, Rudy, and I had a long conversation about the merits of contrarian vs optimal play, and we all agreed that contrarian was the better path. The problem, of course, is that contrarian play isn’t about choosing awful players and hoping they have a good day by means of variance. Contrarian is all about picking good players that the crowd isn’t using. So, when Gerrit Cole has just an average game, you’re running with Dylan Cease’s awesome game, and you’re ahead of 80% of the pack. Let’s see who we can highlight today for you.
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Starting Pitchers
Chalk: Corbin Burnes, Robbie Ray, Lance Lynn
Lesser-Rostered Aces: Shane McClanahan, Sandy Alcantara
Volatile: Zac Gallen, Clayton Kershaw, Ranger Suarez
At this point, we’re in a realm where data doesn’t matter much. The Brewers clinched the division, right? Corbin Burnes can have a 20 K/9 but that doesn’t matter if Craig Counsell pitches his for 4 innings and then rests him for the playoffs. The Blue Jays haven’t clinched yet, so I’d go with famous clincher of hams, Robbie Ray, as your chalk SP. If there’s one elite pitcher that teams need a big performance from today, it’s Ray.
Meanwhile, Sandy Alcantara has 4/5 quality starts over the past month, and he’s been cranking the IP. The Marlins know that they’re in training mode for 2022, so they’re taking advantage of the last week of the season to get experience. Alcantara’s my choice for cheap SP2.
Hitters
Paul Goldschmidt / Tyler O’Neill: 8 combined dongs in the past 7 days. That’s more than a dong per day! What a rate! The Cardinals are trying their best to expand their Wild Card lead, so build a few lineups around these hitters.
Frank Schwindel / Patrick Wisdom: Let’s face it, the Cardinals will be highly utilized today. What if the Cardinals collapse behind famed flamethrower [checks notes] Jon Lester? The Cubs have very little to play for, but Schwindel has a .560 SLG over the past week and Wisdom is a StatCast darling. Here’s your contrarian mini-stack: Jon Lester has managed to limit damage recently, so I wouldn’t get too excited about the Cubs blowing out the Cardinals.
New York Mets: OK fans of the contrarian plays — who won’t be rostered anywhere today? The Mets! Corbin Burnes is a wonderful pitcher. The Brewers also have zero reason to play him or any of their good relievers today. WWCounsellDo? Would he rest his stars in prep for the playoffs? Fingers crossed he does. Literally nobody will be playing the Mets today, so if variance has itself a day and the likes of Francisco Lindor, Jonathan Villar, and Pete Alonso get you excited, then go for the Mets.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains:
Weather report says no rain today.
Doing Lines in Vegas:
The Mets are anywhere from +160 to +210 today. As noted above, there’s really no reason for the Brewers to force Burnes to pitch a regular game — he’s well above his IP expectations and the playoffs are looming and they’ve locked their spot. That betting line is predicated on a Burnes 6IP+ start, so, maybe take advantage of that inefficiency.
