We should have a full slate of 10 games tonight as the weather shouldn’t play a factor. There’s a nice blend of up-and-coming aces in Freddy Peralta, Shohei Ohtani, and Jack Flaherty along with the old guard of Lance Lynn, Charlie Morton, and Zack Greinke. There is also plenty of mediocre pitching to attack as well. Sheerly from a fan of the game, this might be one of the best slates to watch of the year. Let’s build a winning lineup and sit back and soak it up. After all, we’re only 6 weeks away from the postseason.
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Charlie Morton, SP: $9,200 – Play the small sample sounder if you like but Miami since the trade deadline has the 3rd highest k-rate. They dealt Adam Duvall and Starling Marte and their offense was lacking to begin with. Morton has quietly put together a nice season 3.49 ERA with a 28% K-rate.
Marco Gonzales, SP: $8,200 – If you’re loading up on big bats and looking to save salary, look no further. Texas was a bottom feeder offensively before dealing away Joey Gallo. In his last 5 starts, Marco has 1.67 ERA with a .234 wOBA against him. He likely won’t get you double-digit K’s but format matters and you get points for quality starts on FanDuel.
Gary Sanchez, C/1B: $2,500 – Sanchez went hitless in his return for the IL yesterday. He’ll get another try tonight against the enigma that is Nick Pivetta. Pivetta can implode and give up 6 ER in 4.1 IP to the Royals, and then go 7 shutout innings with 10 Ks against Oakland. We all know Gary has big power and even bigger swing and miss, but at $2.5K I’m willing to take the gamble.
Ji-Man Choi, C/1B: $2,500 – You’re better served playing him as part of a stack but $2.5K for a clean-up hitter against the Orioles pitching is hard to pass up
Brandon Lowe, 2B: $3,600 – His numbers for the 2021 campaign look meager on the surface. However, since July 1st, he’s slashing .288/.383/.636 with 12 homers. Spenser Watkins has allowed at least 4 ERs in each of his last 4 starts.
Max Muncy, 2B: $3,900 – By the numbers, Muncy finds himself in an MVP chase. He likely won’t get it with all the star power around him on the defending World Series champs. Nonetheless, he leads the NL in WAR, tied with Bryce Harper for 1st in wRC+ and I as mentioned, has a ton of opportunities with the excellent lineup around him. JT Brubaker had a great start to the season but since then has let his ERA balloon to 5.13.
Kyle Seager, 3B: $3,300 – One of the more underrated players in the game, putting out 20+ homer season in every year he’s played more than 60 games. Mike Foltynewicz has the worst HR/9 over the last 3 seasons with at least 150 IP in the majors and if the roof is open in Texas, expect the ball to be flying out.
Justin Turner, 3B: $3,800 – Since July 1st, JT Brubaker has an 8.05 ERA with 12 homers allowed. I tend to fade the Dodgers as ownership will naturally be high but I’m in on them tonight.
Xander Bogaerts, SS: $3,900 – The Yankees adding Andrew Heaney was a head-scratcher to me. A fly ball pitcher with homer problems moving to a more home run-friendly ballpark should make DFS players happy though.
Corey Seager, SS: $3,200 – Seager has .967 OPS over the last two weeks despite only having one home run.
Justin Upton, OF: $2,600 – Tarik Skubal’s k-rate is down since July 1st, his HR/9 is up. He has 116.1 IP to this point, his career-high pro ball is 122.2 in 2019, which could be a fatigue factor. Regardless, his struggles are real and Upton still has big pop and upside for $2.6K
Hunter Renfroe, OF: $3,500 – His advanced stats aren’t going to jump of the page but he has been a valuable fantasy asset this season. 21 home runs along with 135 R+RBI and now he finds himself hitting 2nd in the lineup as of late. A good spot to be in against a mediocre LHP.
Nelson Cruz, OF: $3,600 – Cruz has struggled since joining the Rays. He hit two bombs last night and I’m betting on it being the start of a breakout for him. Easy to do when you get to pick on Orioles pitching.
Andrew McCutchen, OF: $3,000 – The former NL MVP has some pretty alarming splits. This season he a 186 wRC+ vs LHP but a lowly 71 vs RHP. Thankfully he’ll get a past-his-prime Madison Bumgarner tonight.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
No significant rain on the forecast for anyone tonight.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Brewers (Freddy Peralta) at Cardinals (Jack Flaherty) – O/U 9 runs scored, take the under. Peralta gets overshadowed by two of his teammates, but make no mistake, the only thing holding him back from a Cy Young is his relatively low inning count. He has 2.26 ERA along with an eye-popping 34.5% k-rate. Flaherty has spent a large portion of the season on the IL but he has a 2.65/3.55 ERA/FIP and can shut down just about anyone. The Brewers have turned things around offensively through trade acquisitions but still leave much to be desired. The Cardinals are 22nd in wRC+ this season. Busch Stadium is one of the best pitchers park in the game. This line is definitely a head-scratcher.
The over / under in Brewers Cardinals game is 7, not 9.