What an amazing day for baseball. We get a healthy 12-game night slate with no threat of postponements. It’s also Ohtani day for all those who observe. There is plenty of current star power on the mound and a few in the making. We also get to take a second look at the Mariners’ top pitching prospect Logan Gilbert. He struggled mightily in his first start, but to me, he just looked more nervous than overmatched.
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Starting Pitcher
Trevor Rogers, SP: $9,700 – Rodgers has been the stand-out young player this year in my opinion. He currently owns a 32.6% k rate along with a 2.42 FIP. The Phillies have the 3rd worst k rate against LHP at 29.6% and 25th in walk rate. They are also pretty banged up, Bryce Harper is dealing with a bad shoulder, Didi Gregorius is on the IL, and J.T Realmuto sat again Tuesday with a sore wrist.
John Means, SP: $10,000 – The Rays have struck out 31.9% of the time against LHP so far this year. They can thank the Tigers for saving them from being the league’s worst.
Catcher/First Base
Jared Walsh, C/1B: $3,300 – Ahhhh free at last. Unless you live under a rock, the Angels finally released Pujols and committed everyday ABs to Walsh. To say he deserves it would be an understatement. After an impressive 2020, his encore has him slashing .343/.413/.577 through 38 games this season. He also owns a very healthy .952 career OPS against RHP.
Bobby Dalbec, C/1B: $2,400 – He’s started to heat back up after a brutal 0 for 29 stretch at the end of April/early May. The was some speculation that Dunedin, the current home for Blue Jays would be a hitters park. However, to this point, it has been the highest-scoring park in baseball this year. His opponent Ross Stripling, has been stung by the long ball the last two seasons, 2.37 HR/9 in 2020 and 1.69 thus far in the early campaign. Dalbec has a ton of power. This is a cheap play with a very high ceiling.
Second Base
Jazz Chisholm Jr., 2B: $3,200 – The trouble with Zach Eflin is that he can’t get LHH’s out. He has a .367 career wOBA against LHH vs .298 wOBA against RHH. Jazz fits that mold and he’s been on a tear when healthy, .297/.376/.541 with 4 homers and 8 steals.
Ozzie Albies, 2B: $3,000 – He is a much better hitting from the right side. He owns a career 146 wRC+ vs LHP and a 96 wRC+ vs RHP. He ended his 8-game hitting streak on Monday but I expect him to get back on the horse against an average LHP in David Peterson
Third Base
Austin Riley, 3B: $2,700 – Don’t look now but the young slugger with an “OBP problem” is currently getting on at just over a 40% clip. He definitely seems to be coming into his own and I like this spot for the 4/5/6 hitters for the Braves at home as an affordable stack with high upside.
Luis Urias, 3B: $2,400 – There’s a breakout in here somewhere for the youngster. He’s walking more, hitting the ball harder (41.5 HH%), fewer groundballs, and swinging at more strikes in the zone. He gets a favorable matchup in this one against a struggling Brad Keller.
Shortstop
Gavin Lux, SS: $2,800 – Lux has been good, hitting .381 over the last week. He will have a secure lineup spot with Corey Seager landing on the IL. This is his opportunity to leave a lasting impression with the big league club and he gets a good matchup against an average RHP in Merrill Kelly at home.
Marcus Semien, SS: $3,800 – Semien has been incredible since the calendar flipped to May slashing .361/.400/.672 and a 195 wRC+. He gets Garrett Richards in this one, who gave up 4 ERs in a start against Toronto last month in 4.2 IP.
Outfield
Kyle Lewis, OF: $2,500 – The reigning AL rookie of the year has had a pretty quiet season slashing .241/.337/.373. The good news is, he faces Tarik Skubal, who currently owns the worst FIP in baseball at 7.31 (30 IP min).
Mitch Haniger, OF: $3,900 – The early front runner for comeback player of the year is currently tied for 2nd in baseball with 12 homers and 3 runs scored behind the league leaders. Skubal has been overmatched in his young career. I will pick on him as much as possible in the short term.
Corey Dickerson, OF: $2,300 – One of the most underrated players in baseball. All he does is hit, he owns a career .284/.328/.493 line. He’s not a big HR guy but he gets a good matchup against a guy who struggles against lefties.
Kyle Tucker, OF: $2,900 – He has 5 multi-hit games in the last 9 outings that include 5 home runs. The forecast is also in his favor as it currently shows 15-20 mph winds blowing straight out to center. His opponent Frankie Montas, has been giving up plenty of homers over the last two seasons as his HR/9 at 1.7. Which is 4th highest among starters with at least 90 IP over that time.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Possible light rain is forecasted for Brewers at Royals game, it is unlikely to affect play though. No other poor weather situations to report.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Rays (Ryan Yarbrough) at Orioles (John Means) – Baltimore to win, +110. Tampa really struggles against LHP. They’ve struck the 2nd most against them at a 31.9% clip, en route to a meager 87 wRC+. Baltimore has been much better as they are just outside the top 10 with a respectable 107 wRC+ (100 league average).
