Welcome back everybody! I hope your week was awesome and you were able to cash a few bucks and maybe even take down a tournament or two this week. How about those lesser-owned players right? Vogelbach was huge on Sunday and was in the winning lineups on quite a few tournaments I saw, I hope you had him yesterday if you played. It’s a six-game main slate today so stacking is going to be the play. The trick is going to be getting to that lesser owned stack than everybody else is going to be on so I’ll go give my insight on that a little later.
Based on my title above you probably figured out who my target pitcher is and that’s indeed the Duffster. Danny Duffy ($8,300) will face the Rays on Monday who although their record is 8-8 and coming off a sweep against the Yankees didn’t look that special and a lot of that seemed to be on the Yankees not playing well defensively and shooting themselves in the foot rather than the Rays playing great. I think there will be a letdown in the Rays going on the road to Kansas City and having to face a hard-throwing lefty such as Duffy. Duffy is 2-0 and has only allowed 1 ER in both of his starts against the Angels and Indians respectively. Duffy is limiting hard contact as his hard hit% and barrel % look good so far and he has faced some good right-handed lineups in the Angels and Indians batting order and has shut them both down. Duffy has a four-pitch mix and commands the ball well similar to Carlos Rodon’s profile who I mentioned here last Monday (Start moved to Wed due to illness) and we saw what Rodon was able to do against the Indians. I don’t think Duffy will quite live up to Rodon’s start obviously but I do think he will be successful in limiting the Rays to weak contact hits and won’t hurt you in the BB department. I think Duffy’s floor is 6 IP 3 Hits 2 BB 7 K 1 ER which is what you need on a limited slate today.
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SP Brandon Woodruff ($9,600) If you are playing multiple lineups and want to diversify your lineup look at Woodruff today against the Padres. The Padres are a dang good team this year as they went toe to toe against the Dodgers this weekend and all three games could have gone either way. I think a letdown is in order from all that excitement this past weekend and Woodruff is no joke I’m telling you. Woodruff features four pitches commands them all well and blows his 97 mph fastball by hitters with ease. Woodruff is going through his fourth turn in the order and has looked great against the Twins and Cubs twice. Woodruff does not rattle easily and I don’t see the Padres hitters getting to him even if they do manage to get runners on base. Woodruff has been able to go at least 6 INN his last two starts and I see him going at least 7 INN today with upwards of 8 K and limiting baserunners. Woodruff’s xwOBA and xERA are both at the top of the leaderboard so far which indicates batters have not been able to do much with Woodruff’s offerings even if they do get a bat on the ball. I expect that trend to continue against the Padres. Feel confident clicking his name today.
I mentioned above you need to focus on stacks today. I’m targeting the Royals hitters and Angels hitters today with a mini stack of Giants. Here is who I like:
C/1B- Carlos Santana ($2,600) Carlos Santana has had a roughly quiet start to the season but he is doing so far what he has been known to do in years past. Walk a lot. A deeper dive into Santana’s start to the season is that he has more hits and RBI’s against left-handed pitching so far than right-handed pitching but with way fewer at-bats against lefties. He faces a lefty today in Josh Fleming who pitches to contact which is right up Santana’s alley and I think he barrels one up today. He won’t be heavily owned so you can get pretty good value here today.
2B- Whit Merrifield ($3,900 ) Whit is having a tremendous start to the season and a big reason for the Royals’ success so far and I don’t think the Royals start is a fluke. This is a much-improved squad from last year and I like their makeup. Whit is a bit pricey but if you roster Santana as well you are saving some $ so you can afford Merrifield and he is worth it here. He provides a high floor, his contact rate and whiff% are insanely good, and he will steal you some bags as he has 5 already on the season. He has not gone without a hit in 2 straight games so far and did not get a hit yesterday so the odds are in your favor here. Prepare for a 2 hit game at least today and hopefully a steal or two.
3B- Evan Longoria ($3,100) I’m going back to one of my picks from my first week and sticking with Longoria against the Phillies. The Phillies are going with Chase Anderson who doesn’t bring anything special to the table and Longoria is off to a great start. Longoria’s hard hit% and avg exit velocity are the best he has ever had so far and I think he looks locked in at the plate. Longoria had a routine maintenance day off yesterday although he did get in at the end of the game but I think the rest will serve him well today. I picked him to hit a HR in my 1st installment this year against the Padres which he did and I’m back for more and picking him again for a big day at the plate. Don’t let me down Longo!
SS- David Fletcher ($3,100) My 1st target against the Rangers today and Kohei Arihara is David Fletcher. Fletcher will most likely bat first in the order so I’m penciling him in for at least 5 at-bats tonight which should lead to some quality hits against a pitcher which frankly shouldn’t be in the major leagues. I think Arihara has a razor-thin margin and is getting by on the hitters not being too familiar with him still but that will not last too much longer. Fletcher’s K% and whiff % are very good so far so he is putting the ball in play with quality at-bats and although the hits haven’t been there consistently it is a matter of time before he puts together a string of 2-3 hit games. I think this game he starts a nice streak. The Angels had two days off due to the COVID issues with the Twins which postponed the games so they will be rearing to go tonight.
OF- Mike Trout ($4,600) No surprise here. Trout is having another great start to the season. His statcast page bleeds red and you need to pay up to get him in your lineup. The Rangers do not have anybody capable of shutting him down and if they give him anything to hit here he is going to have a ridiculous game tonight.
OF- Kyle Isbel ($2,200) If Isbel is in the lineup today, I think he has a good shot of rewarding you with a productive day at the plate. Isbel has 3 hits already against left-handed pitches in limited at-bats so the Royals trust him enough to send him out there against lefties and even started yesterday for Benintendi and got a couple of hits. Isbel’s max exit velocity so far is good and he has some speed and has a stolen base so far as well in limited appearances. Nice low buy here with limited exposure.
OF-Mike Yastrzemski ($3,000) I know his overall numbers aren’t great so far but a closer look finds that Yaz has limited his K’s in the last 6 games and has had 2 multi-hit games during that period with a HR and several hard-hit balls resulting in extra bases. I think he is on the verge of a breakout and he can get it done today against Chase Anderson and the Phillies.
UTIL- Justin Upton ($3,000) Going to target Arihara again and the Rangers with Upton. Upton has shown he is still capable of hitting bombs as he had a grand slam on Friday. Upton has tremendous strength and Arihara as mentioned before just doesn’t have a deception pitch that is going to keep Upton off-balance enough to prevent him from sitting on a fastball and driving out to left field tonight.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Got the all clear here. Just one postponement already announced between the Minnesota Twins and Oakland Athletics.
Doing Lines in Vegas
1-1 so far in this section.
Today I like the Chicago White Sox -125 ML against the Boston Red Sox in a matinee game in Boston.
I’ll give you a bonus one today in case you don’t read this in time before the Chi/Bos game starts.
I’m taking the First 5 Innings under 4.5 runs in the Cards/Nats Game.
Good luck today all!
