Welcome back, friends. We are on a serious hot streak with our Lines in Vegas and have been doing pretty well with our FanDuel plays also. Let’s buckle down and get ready to win some money on this fine Sunday (depending on where you live).
I usually like to give you 3 starting pitchers to consider. There are actually a bunch of interesting options on today’s slate so that be pretty easy. Instead, I will do a write-up of 1 pitcher then give you a few more to think about. There really is a lot of good choices today. From top to bottom of the salary scale. All things considered, though I think the best point per dollar starting pitcher is…
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Aaron Nola: $8,100, SP – This really was a tough call. I will tell you the other guys I struggled with in a bit but Nola has shutdown stuff and gets his Ks regardless even in so so starts. I can’t believe I am going to say this next part but he gets a bump over someone like Pablo Lopez because he is facing the Yankees, whereas Lopez is up against Braves. While the Yankees haven’t struck out much as a team overall, they are prone to K against pitchers with elite stuff. They are also 24th in the league in runs scored with less than 4 runs per game. That is almost hard to believe. They score less than the Marlins and only .12 runs above the hapless Mariners.
I like this play for 2 more reasons as well. People still show the Yankees deference and he will be avoided more so than other pitchers. Which will help you get an edge and feeds into my next point. Since there are around 5 guys that can easily put up 30-40 points today if Nola is one of them you get that edge. He is less expensive than the top-tier guys by a lot and he will be lowered owned. Think about it like this. If your projections have Nola scoring 36 points compared to say Framber Valdez who you project to get over 40, Nola is $2,000 cheaper. That is either a huge upgrade at one offensive position or a bunch of upgrades. Besides Beiber (even there I’m not huge on his price point upside) there is a lot of parity in the top 2 tiers of SPs. Why not get a guy that’s cheaper and has almost as many shots (this is the concept that if you could simulate every pitcher’s start X amount of times how many 45+ games which each guy has, or how many 29 or less. To me Nola’s range of outcomes is just as good as the guys above him price-wise) at a big day than more expensive players.
The Best of the Rest
Okay so you saw me mention Valdez: $10,600, Lopez: $8,700 and Bieber: $12,000. All 3 are obviously in play. I also like Bruce Zimmermann: $7,900 if you want someone at a lower price point. Tampa is in the top 10 with the most strikeouts vs lefties and is the bottom 3rd of OPS against southpaws.
I am also fading Robbie Ray: $9,900 today friends. He is still at a decent price considering his recent performance. I don’t love the matchup, ballpark, and ownership projection. I don’t love the short porch or the green monster. I like Ray has a range of outcomes similar to other guys, though with a higher chance he gets hammered. If he puts up 50 though and Nola or Lopez gives us 30 I’ll call myself names next week, believe that. I just don’t think that is super likely.
Stacks to Target
Michael Wacha is on the slate again. When I told you to stack against him last week I was correct, the only problem is that Tampa didn’t give him a long enough leash for us to score a lot of fantasy points off of him. We are going to go back to the well though because at worst we get to tee off vs the worst parts of the Rays pen. While they usually have a good bullpen the guys that come in in the 2nd inning are not the cream of the crop.
I really like the Baltimore 1-3, Cedric Mullins: $3, 300, OF – Trey Mancini: $3,100, 1B/OF, and Anthony Santander: $2,900, OF stack.
I’m also going to have exposure to the Nationals. I like getting tricky with them going for a 7-2 (actually Soto bats 3rd but that’s fine) stack. That’s usually Starlin Castro, Victor Robles then Trea Turner, and Juan Soto.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The only game that looks like it could be delayed is in Cincinnati. Fortunately for you guys, I didn’t tell you to roster anyone from that game so it’s meaningless. ;) In case you want to see it for yourself. Here you go.
Doing Lines In Vegas
We hit both of our bets last week. Two underdogs to boot. I seriously have been hitting at a 75% clip in these articles. It won’t sustain all year these things almost always even out but why not ride the wave while I’m on a hot streak. Just be careful not to bet money you can’t afford to lose.
I am going to give you two more dogs. So you have to have an intense sweat today, how about just throwing $20-50 bucks on a two-team parlay. Go with Washington +118 and Baltimore +158. I actually really like the Orioles with odds like that. If you don’t love the Nats go with a straight money line bet on Baltimore.
I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t tell you that Lucceshi never looks good for the Mets. Even when his results are decent it’s always not pretty. The Padres should be able to score some runs off of him. Something to keep in mind as you put in your bets. The only two I fully vouch for are the two above. Good luck everyone!
