Greetings and salutation friends! Welcome to week 3 of my baseball DFS Sunday musings. If you have followed my advice in the first 2 weeks you have won money. Logan Allen far exceeded value last week, the Yankees scored 8 runs. I also have hit on all 3 of my sportsbook plays since starting here at Razzball. I must be swimming in money too huh? Well no, I moved from Jersey to Georgia 3 years ago right as NJ legalized sports betting. Georgia is still debating whether or not to allow…. Nevermind no politics!
Today I have a pitcher that I LOVE combined with a stack that will help you win both GPP and cash games. So far I have given you cheap pitching options so that we could load up on bats. That’s my sure fire cash game strategy which can also help in low entry GPPs. Today we are going to move up and tier and target Freddy Peralta ($8,500). With Bieber and Cole on the slate today Peralta is a great way to pivot while saving money and getting almost the same upside.
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In my 30 team dynasty league which I joined this year I made a huge trade with Peralta as the centerpiece. As per usual people thought I made a bad deal because they lack imagination in that league. Yet I knew that given an opportunity to start Freddy had the stuff to be a number 1/2 starter. I also traded for Burnes in that league, but I digress.
Peralta is facing an anemic Pirates lineup at home. He has almost 2Ks per 9 in 3 appearances this year (2 as a SP 1 in relief) striking out almost 50% of all the batters he has face. With a Hard Hit rate of 22%, hitters are lucky to get the ball out of the infield. With Beiber and Cole coming in at or over $11,000 Peralta’s $8,500 is a huge discount. He will be priced up soon too so get ’em while you can. I am going 100% Freddy in my cash game lineups and out of 3 GPP lineups today on Fanduel where you only roster 1 starter he will be my SP in 2 of them.
Now to the bats. Stacking is still the best way to maximize upside in roster construction. In the fantasy space many theories and strategies change over time as more data becomes available. Stacking in baseball is as much of a sure thing as not rostering Anthony Davis in NBA DFS without player swap.
The lineup that I like today is the Nationals vs Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner has struggled mightily so far this year. He has given up 7, 8 and 7 hits while walking 2, 3, and 2. That is a ton of baserunners for a pitcher without great strikeout stuff anymore. Meaning he is not going to be able to strikeout the side to get out of tough jams, or K a batter with less then 2 outs and a runner on 3rd. The Nats have struggled offensively this season but like the Yankees last week good teams can still hit bad pitching during a slump. The Yanks haven’t done much else on offense beside score 8 runs in the matchup we targeted last week. I’m betting that this will be a similar situation for the Nats. Since we do not know where Robles will bat or what order other players will be in I am just going to give you the guys, pick the ones at the top of the order.
Josh Bell, 1B/C: $3,100 – Bell like many other players has been struggling to start the year. Its pretty bad, but nothing gets a guy going like facing an old timer that you’ve seen before who is losing his stuff. He will also be low owned. If you are squeamish about it pivot to 1 of the Phillies facing Gant. Either Hoskins or Realmuto for your cash game lineups.
Starlin Castro, 2B: $2,500 – Castro will hit towards the bottom of the order but I love the price and matchup. Plus he has been hitting so far this year. Castro has some pop and just might hit us a home run today.
Trea Turner, SS: $3,800 – Turner is playable almost every night in DFS, more so today though. The fact that he isn’t priced up as an elite player boggles the mind. He can hit you a home run, steal a base, score 3 runs and date your daughter. Turner is for real so fire him up in every lineup (unless you play a high number then be overweight on him).
Juan Soto, OF: $4,200 – People crowned Soto as the goat in the offseason. Not saying the kid doesn’t have the talent to be but lets give Trout time to fall off before we pick his replacement. Luckily for us we do not care about what happens during the season we care about 1 slate at a time, and in this slate I will have Soto rostered at close to 100%
Finally for the Nats (I think they are all in play check the updated lineups as we get closer to lock) I also like Victor Robles. I know he is struggling to start the season but he has so much stolen base and runs scored upside. Even if he just goes 1-3 with a single and a walk he can still score us 20+ fantasy points with stolen bases and runs scored.
That concludes our article for this week. Fire up Peralta and those Nats and thank me in the comments. Speaking of comments please say something, lol. No one has said anything and I cant be sure anyone has read anything I’ve written. Cheers!
I’m Only Happy When it Rains
Looks pretty clear for most of the games today. The only one I’d really keep an eye on is in Chicago. There is a chance for a postponement but Id be surprised if they canceled the game.
Doing Lines in Vegas
In the first 2 weeks of this article I have given you straight winners. I am 3 – 0. I should just keep the streak alive but instead I’ll give you a dog to wager on. The Reds have been absolutely crushing on offense. Now they face one of the better pitchers in the game today but if any team can score runs vs Bieber it is this red hot Reds team. At +135 I’d roll the dice and bet the Reds. If you like this bet then they will have to score runs. The O/U is only at 7 runs. Go ham and parley the over. Good luck!