Here we are on the penultimate day of the regular season. It actually happened, we’re almost to the finish line. With so many teams making the playoffs, and so much at stake for some and not as much at stake for others, we have to tread carefully if we want to finish in the money. The White Sox are 2-8 in their last 10 and looking to turn things around as they go into the playoffs. The Cubs are slugging under .600 in September and no matter what happens this weekend cannot loose their 4th seed in the NL playoffs. They’re more likely to sit their bats to rest them rather than get them going these last two days. All of this adds up to grabbing Dane Dunning ($7,700) as your starter today. Over his last three starts he’s averaged 29.8 FanDuel points, and he’s grabbed the win and quality start bonus in two of those three. Many will be on Civale and the Indians against the Pirates, but Joe Musgrove is cooking again and the Pirates are showing a bit of life at the plate. Dance with Dunning and open up some payroll for a surprising stack.
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Oh those slugging Royals. The Royals have nothing to play for, but also nothing to lose. They’re not in the race for the top pick in the 2021 draft so why not play hard? And that’s just what they’ve been doing, at least at bat. The wind is forecast to whip out to left at 16 MPH, that’s one of the highest readings we’ve seen. Left hander Matthew Boyd, who’s struggled lately, is going for the Tigers. This puts right handed Royal bats at a massive advantage today. It helps that the Royals have seen a lot of Boyd and have some success against him. (As an aside, if you want to grab some cheap dart throws right handed Tigers bats are good bets, even though they are facing a right hander.)
Salvador Perez, C: $4,000 – Yes, it costs $4,000 for Perez, but it’s worth it. The guy is killing it in his last 15: .418 with seven homers. In 34 at bats against Boyd he’s hit .294 with a double and two homers.
Adalberto Mondesi, SS: $3,000 – This may be the best value on the FanDuel main slate today. He’s hit .360 with two homers, three doubles, two triples and 11 steals in his last 15. He’s a switch hitter so he’ll be hitting right handed.
Whit Merrifield, OF: $3,600 – He has owned Boyd. In 45 at bats he’s hit .511 with nine doubles and six steals. With the wind blowing the way it is that doubles power could turn into home runs very easily.
Now the rest.
Jared Walsh, 1B: $3,100 – Maybe the second best value on FanDuel today, Walsh has smashed six homers in his last 15 and hit .339.
Jose Abreu, 1B: $4,000 – If you’d rather switch things up and find value elsewhere, the possible AL MVP has a lot of motivation to continue his hot hitting. He’s bombed six in his last 15 as well, and hit .346 to boot.
Ozzie Albies, 2B: $4,100 – This high priced 2B is one of the hottest hitters in the game. In the last 15 he’s hit .382 with four homers and two steals. He’s also scoring runs in bunches.
Alec Bohm, 3B: $2,900 – He doesn’t have as much power as others, but he has managed to hit .387 over the past 15 games with two homers and a steal.
Kole Calhoun, OF: $3,400 – He’s jacked six bombs in his last 15, thrown in a steal and batted .342. Sometimes Covid life agrees with players, sometimes it doesn’t. It’s obviously working for Kole.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
All wind all the time today. It’s rare to see so many windy places. The granddaddy of them all is a 16 MPH wind blowing out to left in Kansas City for the Royals and Tigers. It’s 11 MPH out to left in Arlington for the Astros at the Rangers, and 12 MPH out to left in St. Louis for the Brewers and Cardinals. It’s absolutely howling straight left in Chicago for the Cubs at the White Sox at 17 MPH, but it’s so straight left bombs that way are much more likely to go foul than out of the ballpark. But jigger your lineups with right handed hitters from the Astros, Rangers, Cardinals and Brewers if you want something different. The KC vs Boyd matchup is highlighted because it is the best of all worlds, but you can probably mine some value out of the others as well.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The best and the brightest: The biggest favorites today are the Dodgers (-193) vs the Angels. This is a strange line because the Dodgers have clinched the best record and have nothing to play for. The other biggest favorites are the Indians (-191) vs the Pirates and the Astros (-190) at the Rangers.
Stack ’em, pack ’em and rack ’em: The highest projected runs for today are the Indians (6.32) vs the Pirates, the White Sox (6.14) vs the Cubs and the Braves (5.77) vs the Red Sox. Tanner Houk goes for the Sox and hasn’t allowed an earned run in two starts. It is smoke and mirrors? He’s tough on right handed batters like Acuna and Ozuna. Color me skeptical of this projected runs scored number.