What’s up, everybody? I’ve got a big list of players because Fanduel has a big all-day (15 games) and main (14 games) slate. As always, check lineups with Rudy’s tools or your favorite lineup site (not including MLB The Show). It looks like a great hitter slate today, so you mega-event players should let your optimizers run wild and you single-event players will likely want to focus on Athletics, Rays, Marlins, and Angels lineups.
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Starting Pitchers
Charlie Morton and Corbin Burnes
Go get yourself some CM, punk! That’s Charlie Morton, not the wrestler who just re-appeared. Morton and Burnes really shouldn’t be a surprise to anybody. But my personal rankings show only 2 true aces today, and they’re ranked #1 and #3 on Rudy’s DFS rankings. Unless you’re the type that wants to do a German Marquez/Andrew Heaney lineup, you might want to pony up the cash to get your elite starters today. Jack Flaherty is an option, but he’s also likely to be inning limited. If you really want to white knuckle, take Dylan Cease against the Blue Jays. Cease is poised for a big game soon…but will it happen against the best offense in the league? We’ll find out this evening!
Hitters
My “Crushonator” looks at projected matchups and highlights players who have optimal splits for Home/Away, wOBA, ISO, and upside DFS points as provided by Rudy’s DFS Rankings. Here are my favorite “Crushers” today:
| Crushers |
|---|
| Rafael Devers |
| Shohei Ohtani |
| Mitch Garver |
| Pete Alonso |
| Bryce Harper |
| Mike Zunino |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. |
My “Hobbitotron” looks for batters who have less reliable power but are cheap plays:
| Hobbits |
|---|
| Jorge Soler |
| Kyle Schwarber |
| Patrick Wisdom |
| Miguel Sano |
| Mitch Garver |
| Pete Alonso |
| Joey Gallo |
| Brandon Belt |
| Mike Zunino |
Lastly, I calculate the cheapest batters who have favorable handedness splits on line drive %. These guys are your roster fillers:
Stacks for Today:
As always, please double-check lineups before making your DFS submissions. This especially applies to the Unexpected Hitters bracket — those guys have a greater than 50% chance to play, but many of their jobs are volatile.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains:
20% chance of rain in MIL/CIN. So, keep an eye on that Corbin Burnes start and be ready to flex to Flaherty, Berrios, or Cease if needed.
Doing Lines in Vegas:
Why not hedge against Corbin Burnes? CIN is +170 at the time of writing, yet they’re putting Tyler Mahle out against the Brew Crew. Imagine each starter going 6-7 IP and the score is 2-1 in the Brewers’ favor when the bullpen comes in and Jonathan India and Joey Votto make it a 3-2 game in favor of the Reds. Great DFS game for DFS pitchers AND a Reds win AND it’s the under (7.5). Could be an interesting play there (albeit, a low chance outcome).
Hi Blair,
Your philosophical answers always educate me and give me perspective. Of course, I sat Flexan and he scheduled to win with 21 points. That’s the magic of fantasy baseball. All the predictions said to sit him.
A few questions on my streamers:
1. I have the Yankees Taillon on the road against Oakland and the Angles. Do you agree to start both times?
2. Austin Gomber also on the Road against Cubs and Texas. Would you start him both times?
3. I just picked up The Nats Corbin who is pitching on the road against Miami and then home against the Phil’s. Thoughts?
Thanks for your help! I really appreciate your insight!
Martin!
Hey Martin! Yeah, go full start on Gomber and Corbin. Cubs are racing for last place so start any pitcher you want against them.
Taillon vs the As isn’t my favorite matchup, but if you need points, I’d roll with it. If you don’t need points, sit him. Taillon vs the Angels is more acceptable — basically only Ohtani doing damage in that lineup right now (hides from Coolwhip). Hope that helps!
Very helpful Blair!
Thanks!
Very helpful Blair!
Thanks!
One small quibble: retractable roof in MIL, no need to worry about rain there.
Otherwise very elegant take on this slate. Love it. You guys are always one step ahead of the game.
Yeah good point. I live in western WI and was in the storm that “threatened” MIL, and it was 70MPH winds for a bit there, so it was definitely making me think twice. Looks like the storm broke up though, so could be no biggie. Thanks for the support!
Oh I gotcha, although with winds like that anything could happen. Glad to see no harm was done by the storms.
What’s up Blair! I have been extremely impressed with your pitching insight. I don’t always agree with it, but I like your take on things. Numbers are numbers! Hard to argue that. Talk to me about Eli Morgan. Looking pretty consistent. I believe we’ve done this before with Quantrill…..And I would love to hear your outlook on Edward Cabrera.
Btw, I mean no disrespect when I said I don’t always agree but I do trust your perspective!!!! So thank you!
I get where you’re coming from. Having worked with Rudy for the past year, I understand that no projections are perfect — and often they’re not even close lol — but it’s the people who you get *right* that matter. I nailed Robbie Ray this year and my system has basically landed the majority of the top 25% of healthy pitchers, which means I’m good enough for my standards. If I was perfect, I’d clearly be working for a MLB club because even those billionaires can’t get their staff right.
But for Morgan, I’m seeing pretty status quo numbers across the board. Great control, which is hard to do at age 25. Fangraphs ranks his changeup as plus if not plus/plus, so, there’s potential for dynasty leagues; being in the Cleveland system (which produced Bieber, Clevinger, McKenzie, Kluber etc) could be a boon. But otherwise, for 2021, Morgan will likely just be an innings eater while the Guardians get an idea of whether he’ll be on their rotation in 2022.
For Cabrera, I think we’ll probably see a McKenzie-style 2020 — he’s brand new, there’s almost no tape on him recently, and MLB batters are going to be completely fresh on him. The results will be stunning or laughable with very little in-between. The guy has raced up the ranks unbelievably fast and the Marlins probably want to get him a taste of MLB hitting in September so he knows how to prep in the off-season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see several 5+ IP games with 10 K/9, but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see him get jitters and get sent down quickly. No riding the fence with him! But if you need stats, grab Cabrera and white knuckle.