What’s up, everybody? I’ve got a big list of players because Fanduel has a big all-day (15 games) and main (14 games) slate. As always, check lineups with Rudy’s tools or your favorite lineup site (not including MLB The Show). It looks like a great hitter slate today, so you mega-event players should let your optimizers run wild and you single-event players will likely want to focus on Athletics, Rays, Marlins, and Angels lineups.

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Starting Pitchers

Charlie Morton and Corbin Burnes

Go get yourself some CM, punk! That’s Charlie Morton, not the wrestler who just re-appeared. Morton and Burnes really shouldn’t be a surprise to anybody. But my personal rankings show only 2 true aces today, and they’re ranked #1 and #3 on Rudy’s DFS rankings. Unless you’re the type that wants to do a German Marquez/Andrew Heaney lineup, you might want to pony up the cash to get your elite starters today. Jack Flaherty is an option, but he’s also likely to be inning limited. If you really want to white knuckle, take Dylan Cease against the Blue Jays. Cease is poised for a big game soon…but will it happen against the best offense in the league? We’ll find out this evening!

Hitters

My “Crushonator” looks at projected matchups and highlights players who have optimal splits for Home/Away, wOBA, ISO, and upside DFS points as provided by Rudy’s DFS Rankings. Here are my favorite “Crushers” today:

Crushers
Rafael Devers
Shohei Ohtani
Mitch Garver
Pete Alonso
Bryce Harper
Mike Zunino
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr.

My “Hobbitotron” looks for batters who have less reliable power but are cheap plays:

Hobbits
Jorge Soler
Kyle Schwarber
Patrick Wisdom
Miguel Sano
Mitch Garver
Pete Alonso
Joey Gallo
Brandon Belt
Mike Zunino

Lastly, I calculate the cheapest batters who have favorable handedness splits on line drive %. These guys are your roster fillers:

 

Stacks for Today: 

As always, please double-check lineups before making your DFS submissions. This especially applies to the Unexpected Hitters bracket — those guys have a greater than 50% chance to play, but many of their jobs are volatile.

I’m Only Happy When It Rains: 

20% chance of rain in MIL/CIN. So, keep an eye on that Corbin Burnes start and be ready to flex to Flaherty, Berrios, or Cease if needed.

Doing Lines in Vegas: 

Why not hedge against Corbin Burnes? CIN is +170 at the time of writing, yet they’re putting Tyler Mahle out against the Brew Crew. Imagine each starter going 6-7 IP and the score is 2-1 in the Brewers’ favor when the bullpen comes in and Jonathan India and Joey Votto make it a 3-2 game in favor of the Reds. Great DFS game for DFS pitchers AND a Reds win AND it’s the under (7.5). Could be an interesting play there (albeit, a low chance outcome).

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Martin Rostoker
Martin Rostoker
11 months ago

Hi Blair,

Your philosophical answers always educate me and give me perspective. Of course, I sat Flexan and he scheduled to win with 21 points. That’s the magic of fantasy baseball. All the predictions said to sit him.

A few questions on my streamers:

1. I have the Yankees Taillon on the road against Oakland and the Angles. Do you agree to start both times?

2. Austin Gomber also on the Road against Cubs and Texas. Would you start him both times?

3. I just picked up The Nats Corbin who is pitching on the road against Miami and then home against the Phil’s. Thoughts?

Thanks for your help! I really appreciate your insight!

Martin!

Martin Rostoker
Martin Rostoker
Reply to  everywhereblair
11 months ago

Very helpful Blair!

Thanks!

Martin Rostoker
Martin Rostoker
Reply to  everywhereblair
11 months ago

Very helpful Blair!

Thanks!

Aconstipatedmonkey
Aconstipatedmonkey
11 months ago

One small quibble: retractable roof in MIL, no need to worry about rain there.

Otherwise very elegant take on this slate. Love it. You guys are always one step ahead of the game.

Aconstipatedmonkey
Aconstipatedmonkey
Reply to  everywhereblair
11 months ago

Oh I gotcha, although with winds like that anything could happen. Glad to see no harm was done by the storms.

Dude
Dude
11 months ago

What’s up Blair! I have been extremely impressed with your pitching insight. I don’t always agree with it, but I like your take on things. Numbers are numbers! Hard to argue that. Talk to me about Eli Morgan. Looking pretty consistent. I believe we’ve done this before with Quantrill…..And I would love to hear your outlook on Edward Cabrera.

Dude
Dude
Reply to  Dude
11 months ago

Btw, I mean no disrespect when I said I don’t always agree but I do trust your perspective!!!! So thank you!