Happy fathers day fellow degens! If you are reading this article with an eye to building lineups as your wife and kids make you breakfast then you are in fact sir, a degen. Celebrate it though don’t shun it. Men overwhelmingly play DFS and men also make up most fathers, not all mind you; we live in interesting times. That’s not what you are here to read about I just wanted to point out the fact that today can be a day to celebrate the fact that we (us men) love to gamble, even while being honored as fathers. Even if you don’t have kids consider yourself celebrated, in this article at least. Regarding the aforementioned day of fathers I regret to inform you that my article will be a bit shorter this week as I do have a fun filled day (too much food and the fam). So basically average size when you consider the word salad my past articles have been. Lets not waste on more time on pleasantries and get right to it.
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As we analyze this 9 game slate the first thing that stands out is there aren’t any super chalk aces pitching today. There are a lot of guys bunched up in that 8 to $9,000 price range. There shouldn’t be any one guy over 15 or 20% so that allows us to differentiate ourselves. Choosing a pitcher today will have more weight then on your typical slate in this guys opinion, presumably that is why you are here.
As a rule of thumb I do not like to roster a starting pitcher on the road at Yankee stadium. That park is a band box and balls just fly there. Besides, I think Manaea is a bit overpriced. Next up is my homeboy Taijuan Walker ($9,400) He is coming off of two amazing starts, putting up FD scores of 55 and 61. If you follow along here you know I am a long suffering Mets fan. I can tell you that when Walker looks good he looks good, but when he doesn’t have it its bad. That seems obvious but a top of the line pitcher without his best stuff can still be effective or limit the damage, Walker is more of an imploder. Putting all stats and metrics aside sometimes its as simple as can Walker have 3 dominate starts in a row? Against a weak hitting Nats team, they only have one player with a wOBA over .360 (not hard to guess who, what’s more surprising is Turner hasn’t been the world beater we expect him to be), and are 20th vs righties this season in OPS.
I say yes! *insert laughing emoji* That was a long winded way of saying so. I just do not like the other options on the slate. Nathan Eovaldi ($8,900) is definitely a solid option and he has had bad luck this year. His BABIP is .326 and left on base percentage 69%, Both of those worse than league average. Both of those stats should regress to the mean which would help Eovaldi, we just can’t know if that will happen today. His matchup isn’t great but if he can avoid letting Perez or Santana hurt him he things could go his way. Of course if it was that easy I would be pitching today.
For the top tier I will go Walker over Eovaldi. I think Walker beats him in almost all categories. This seems like the potential for a big day. But if you want security for a cash game lineup Eovaldi is probably a better bet.
I don’t love too much at the bottom of the salary list. If you need to go with someone cheap you could do worse then Eric Lauer. I have him on my 30 team dynasty so I have followed him closer then most spot starter types. He has pretty good stuff and if he can command it things go pretty well for him.
Batter Up
Looks down pitching list….. Sees Matt Harvey vs the Blue Jays. Stack Jays, good bye.
One day I am really going to do that, but not this day. Seriously though roster Jays today, they are all in play. If you can afford the top guys go for it, Vlad is a beast and Bo is awesome. Sprinkle in some lower level guys like Rowdy Tellez ($2,500) and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($2,800) Harvey gives to both sides of the plate when hes struggling so I wouldn’t pay much mind to matchups. Something happen to Matt when He came back to Citi Field (formally Shea Stadium) and he hasn’t been right since. This is a bad lineup to try and get right against.
For this next lineup to target I am pretty excited about. The Astros are the best hitting team in baseball vs lefties, based on many metrics. For example they are first in batting average and OPS. They have 30 points over the second place team in average. They are top 1/3 in most power stats but today should be different. Keuchel is the kind of soft pitch to contact type that the Stros thrive on. They are in the top 5 in average vs offspeed pitches and many other similar stats. Pile in as many Houston righties, which lucky for us is most of their lineup excluding Yordan Alvarez.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Even with rain pouring on most of the south east sources I trust don’t think we will have many problems at all except for one game. The Marlins in Chicago. To quote them “Storms likely to move in during the game, an extended delay or unfinished game is possible”. I wouldn’t risk rostering any players from that game. Otherwise don’t pay much mind to the weather, hopefully we can gain an edge as our opponents do.
Doing Lines In Vegas
We continue to do well in this area. I was looking at bets this morning and didn’t love much. The over in the Toronto at Baltimore game looks pretty good. If you really want skin in the game do a 3 way parlay with the Jays and Astro overs combined with the Yanks at only -125. Or just rest today and enjoy the games on fathers day. Get back to the grind tomorrow.
Good luck and Happy Fathers day Guys!!!
