There’s no top rookie for 2024 fantasy baseball, if I’m reading the tea leaves correctly, and, let’s hope I did, because I’ve already drank the tea so I can’t re-read them. Asked a few people their general take on who the top rookie would be in redraft leagues for 2024 fantasy baseball, and I got a bunch of names. A bunch of names that I will go over in the upcoming weeks. That’s right! Welcome to our 2024 fantasy baseball rookie outlook series where I will cover all the 2024 rookies who will be worthwhile for 2024 fantasy baseball redraft leagues. I am not the dynasty guy. That is Itch. I am not the keeper guy, that’s Jakkers. I’m just your redraft guy. The top rookie for 2024 fantasy baseball is only important, because that’s how I usually kick off this series. Starting ten or so years ago with Mike Trout, I would start with the top rookie each year. If you want to make money in Vegas, I’d bet the field or a long shot this year, because there’s no clearcut guy. I asked a bunch of people who this year’s Corbin Carroll would be and the one name that returned the most votes (two of ten) was Evan Carter. Well, technically, the odds-on favorite was Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but I won’t go over him until he signs somewhere. This is the most divided that people have been on who the top rookie will be for an upcoming year. Last year, there were two possible top prospects with Carroll and Gunnar, and this year there’s, like, a ten-way tie for the top rookie. There is a chance in the spring we see a Jordan Walker-like bump that we saw last year when he started hitting so well in Spring Training, and someone else will emerge, traveling up the draft boards, but there doesn’t seem like there will be a top 75 rookie drafted this year in redraft leagues as of right now, like Gunnar or Corbin last year (barring, again, Yamamoto). This leaves us, brings us really, to Evan Carter, our top rookie because he received 20% of the vote for top rookie! Evan Carter spent time in the three-hole in the stacked Rangers’ lineup in the lineup, so we know what they think of him. So, what can we expect from Evan Carter for 2024 fantasy baseball?
That Evan Carter was already called up also takes the heat off the projections for this post in the “Will he break camp?” or “Won’t he break camp?” nonsense. He absolutely will. This year he was called up for the final month and went 5/3/.306 in 62 ABs. (Since he kept rookie eligibility, he was eligible for a rookie outlook post — lucky him!) Last preseason, Itch said, “A left-handed hitter with smooth actions at 6’4”190 lbs, Evan Carter is a unique player with incredible plate skills. Brandon Nimmo comes to mind, but Carter is on course to be a better athlete with a better hit tool. He slashed .287/.388/.476 with 11 home runs and 26 stolen bases in 100 games at High-A and finished up with a white-hot week in Double-A (.429/.536/.714). I suspect he’ll look like a big leaguer this spring and open in Double-A on a fast track to the majors, while I’m on the fast track to beating up Grey.” What? Itch nailed Carter, and this year before being called up, he went 12/22/.295-ish in 105 MiLB games. Think Itch would agree that steals are about desire and Carter obviosuly desires stealing more than Nimmo. Otherwise, that comp tracks. A 24/.280 hitter plays, then throw in 20+ steals, then eyeballs go wide and I start drooling. But first, a clip:
Evan Carter continues to be a difference maker for the @Rangers this Postseason!#MLBNow | #BaseballyPlays pic.twitter.com/kQ0lU0iAde
— MLB Now (@MLBNow) October 17, 2023
Shows you the kind of speed he has, and how he can lace a ball, if you missed watching him in the playoffs. Then, going further back, his first homer:
Tha Carter VI just dropped!
Evan Carter has reached base in his first six #postseason plate appearances — and this was a homer! pic.twitter.com/u5jeNBn3FB
— MLB (@MLB) October 4, 2023
From one rapper to another, here’s what I said when he was called up, “Evan Carter looks about as well-rounded as they come — think 20+ HRs, 20+ SBs, .280+ average. He’s like Kyle Tucker 2: Without Reasonable Doubt.” And that’s me quoting me! Nothing’s changed in my mind for Evan Carter. He started his major league career with a 32% strikeout rate, which worries me a little bit, but, if being real, not much. He walked so much for a rookie (16%), and he might settle in as the Rangers’ number two hitter, if not their three-hole hitter as he was at times in the postseason. He just turned 21 and he looked like he has a solid case to be made for the top rookie for 2024 fantasy. Him and everyone else, as we’re learning. For 2024 fantasy baseball, I’ll give Evan Carter projections of 81/16/72/.264/24 in 541 ABs with a chance for more.
Excellent article, Grey. Now I’m in spring training mode, and we still have the WS.
Haha
Carter’s trajectory to me looks a lot like Corbin Caroll actually. Struck out a little more than you’d like in his cup of coffee, but plate skills and 97th percentile sprint speed…Unfortunately I think that he’s going to be nowhere near a ‘sleeper’ anymore given his prominent role on a world series team.
Yeah, I don’t think he’s a sleeper
For your bet’s sake, I hope Philly wins and you get to reap the benefits.
For the sake of fun baseball, I hope Arizona wins.
Jolt
Haha, still a long way to go even if Philly wins, so it’s all good either way…Might make it slightly more interesting for me but I will recover if it’s the DBacks
Carter is a major keeper decision for me looking ahead to next year, in a 10-team OBP league. I’m already keeping a bunch of starters (likely Kirby, Valdez, Eflin, Skubal, all for well under price), plus Christian Walker for $1. After that, I’ve got two more slots to fill. I’ve got Altuve for $9, Berrios for $1, Peralta for $9, Evan Phillips for $5, and Evan Carter for $2.
My gut says Altuve and Peralta, but it’s really hard to toss Carter back. Maybe another starter is overkill, even in a 10-P league. I’m also deeply unsure about Framber after a tough EOY stretch. Any reactions?
Gotta go Altuve — Framber’s price?
Framber is $11, but also only keeps for 1 more year (the others have 2 years remaining). For context, Kirby is $15, aces typically go in the $30-50 range in this league.
Ah, okay, Framber seems fine there — Altuve and Freddy then
Grey,
I need your help. My league is having an expansion draft, I need to expose 16 players at the bare minimum and not sure who to expose for it. The two salaries at the end of each name are what the sakary was in 2023 and what it would be in 2024. This is my roster:
1 C Henry Davis PIT $5.00 $6.00
2 C Jonah Heim TEX $5.00 $6.00
3 C J.T. Realmuto PHI $27.00 $30.00
4 1B / 3B Alec Bohm PHI $8.00 $10.00
5 1B Freddie Freeman LAD $36.00 $38.00
6 1B Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. TOR $11.00 $13.00
7 1B / 2B / 3B / SS Jared Triolo PIT $5.00 $6.00
8 2B / 3B / SS / OF Jon Berti MIA $5.00 $6.00
9 2B / SS / OF Mookie Betts LAD $51.00 $52.00
10 2B / 3B / SS / OF Tommy Edman STL $20.00 $23.00
11 2B / 3B Nolan Gorman STL $6.00 $8.00
12 2B Ketel Marte ARI $9.00 $11.00
13 2B / 3B / OF Weston Wilson PHI $5.00 $6.00
14 3B / SS Royce Lewis MIN $6.00 $8.00
15 3B Jose Ramirez CLE $40.00 $42.00
16 3B / SS Bobby Witt KC $6.00 $8.00
17 SS Bo Bichette TOR $13.00 $15.00
18 OF Yordan Alvarez HOU $11.00 $13.00
19 OF Kerry Carpenter DET $5.00 $6.00
20 OF Jasson Dominguez NYY $5.00 $6.00
21 OF Steven Kwan CLE $6.00 $8.00
22 OF Chas McCormick HOU $5.00 $6.00
23 OF Luis Robert, Jr. CWS $18.00 $21.00
24 OF Julio Rodriguez SEA $6.00 $8.00
25 OF Mike Trout LAA $44.00 $45.00
26 OF Kyle Tucker HOU $13.00 $15.00
27 OF Taylor Ward LAA $5.00 $6.00
28 UT / SP Shohei Ohtani LAA $16.00 $18.00
29 SP Ian Anderson ATL $5.00 $6.00
30 SP / RP Sam Bachman LAA $5.00 $6.00
31 SP Walker Buehler LAD $34.00 $36.00
32 SP Luis Castillo SEA $28.00 $31.00
33 SP Kutter Crawford BOS $5.00 $6.00
34 SP Max Fried ATL $21.00 $23.00
35 SP Kevin Gausman TOR $18.00 $21.00
36 SP Cristian Javier HOU $20.00 $23.00
37 SP / RP Ben Joyce LAA $5.00 $6.00
38 SP Mitch Keller PIT $6.00 $8.00
39 SP Clayton Kershaw LAD $26.00 $29.00
40 SP / RP Michael King NYY $8.00 $10.00
41 SP Sawyer Gibson – Long DET $5.00 $6.00
42 SP Robbie Ray SEA $15.00 $17.00
43 SP Max Scherzer NYM / TEX $35.00 $37.00
44 SP Kodai Senga NYM $5.00 $6.00
45 SP Luis Severino NYY $13.00 $15.00
46 SP / RP Jeffrey Springs TB $8.00 $10.00
47 SP Justin Verlander NYM / HOU $15.00 $17.00
48 SP Brandon Woodruff MIL $21.00 $23.00
49 RP Jason Adam TB $6.00 $8.00
50 RP Felix Bautista BAL $6.00 $8.00
51 RP Alexis Diaz CIN $6.00 $8.00
52 RP Jason Foley DET $5.00 $6.00
53 RP Ryan Helsley STL $6.00 $8.00
54 RP Liam Hendricks CWS $23.00 $25.00
55 RP Jeff Hoffman PHI $5.00 $6.00
56 RP Raisel Iglesias ATL $15.00 $17.00
57 RP Chris Martin BOS $5.00 $6.00
58 RP Hoby Milner MIL $5.00 $6.00
59 RP Evan Phillips LAD $6.00 $8.00
60 RP Ryan Pressley HOU $16.00 $18.00
I am considering these 9 so far:
1) Berti
2) Edman
3) T. Ward
4) K. Crawford
5) Sawyer Gibson – Long
6) R. Ray
7) Severino
8) Hoffman
9) Milner
DO you agree with these 9 so far? And who do you think should be the other 7?
those 9 and:
Ben Joyce, Hendricks, Scherzer, Foley, Chris Martin, Bachman, Weston Wilson….Buehler is pretty expensive too
our budget is not the a -typical $260, it is $1000. So with that being said who should be the other 7?
The 7 I said
ok thanks
No problem
Grey,
Would you keep B. Woodruff and S. Kwan or expose them to the expansion draft?
I’d keep
these were the 4 names i was thinking of the 7 to expose:
Jason Adam $8
Woodruff (will be out all next year) $25
Ian Anderson $6
Wilson $6 or Kwan $8
Those 4 work for me
ok good. Now i need at least 1 or two more. Here is who I am thinking and you tell me your thoughts:
Nolan Gorman ($8):
I have Betts, Triolo, and Marte at 2B, while I have J-Ram, Witt and R. Lewis at 3rd.
Kerry Carpenter ($6):
I have in my OF:
Alvarez, Jasson Dominguez (The Martian), Kwan, L. Robert, McCormick, J- Rod, Trout, Tucker
What are your thoughts which one or both?
I’d lose Carpenter first of those two
swung a trade. I give up Nolan Gorman ($8) and the #8 pick in the first year draft, for the #1 pick in the first year player draft. thoughts?
Sounds solid!
trying to get the #2 pick as well. Would you trade Kerry Carpenter and #8 pick in the first round player draft for the #2 pick
Works for me
ok thanks
No problem
Is this a 4 team league?
Sorry to throw a curveball, but isn’t Tha Carter a Lil Wayne reference :)
Oh snap…haha…I was thinking Sean Carter vs. Lil Wayne — my bad, will fix
With a chance for more! Love it. Truly gifted kid drafted out of high school, he is filled with enthusiasm. Loved his postgame interview, “just havin fun!” One huge intangible is his makeup, ya think Bochy likes him? Nice lede Grey
Yeah, absolutely! Thanks!
Love it. You think the lefty platooning is just playoff micromanagement? Orioles let Gunnar struggle through lefties — hoping Rangers do the same for Carter.
I think so, yup
Def pumped about him too. Too bad Adolis didn’t take any walks yesterday, what a bum who people should def not draft until after pick 60 (lol!)
HAHA, kinda gross to hit homers and not take walks…not very team-friendly
Keep 10 with no contracts. H2H 12T. EDLC and Royce Lewis for Riley?
Riley
2023 rookies In the Top 300 on the RAZZBALL PLAYER RATER:
RANK PLAYER (AB) HR/SB AVE
05 Corbin Carroll ( 565 ) 25 / 54 .285
55 Gunnar Henderson ( 560 ) 28 / 10 .255
69 Spencer Steer ( 582 ) 23 / 15 .271
101 James Outman ( 483 ) 23 / 16 .248
117 Esteury Ruiz ( 449 ) 5 / 67 .254
118 Nolan Jones ( 367 ) 20 / 20 .297
135 Masataka Yoshida ( 537 ) 15 / 8 .289
147 Josh Jung ( 478 ) 23 / 1 .266
156 Ezequiel Tovar ( 581 ) 15 / 11 .253
178 Matt McLain ( 365 ) 16 / 14 .290
179 Elly De La Cruz ( 388 ) 13 / 35 .235
189 Triston Casas ( 429 ) 24 / 0 .263
208 Anthony Volpe ( 541 ) 21 / 24 .209
224 Yainer Diaz ( 355 ) 23 / 0 .282
252 Maikel Garcia ( 464 ) 4 / 23 .272
268 Jordan Walker ( 420 ) 16 / 7 .276
299 Francisco Alvarez ( 382 ) 25 / 2 .209
Without any comparison to other seasons, this seems to be an exceptional crop of rookies.
Some others that provided value in limited ABs:
RANK PLAYER (AB) HR/SB AVE
321 Royce Lewis ( 217 ) 15 / 6 .309
390 Zack Gelof ( 270 ) 14 / 14 .267
470 Matt Wallner ( 213 ) 14 / 2 .249
556 C. Encarnacion-Strand ( 222 ) 13 / 2 .270
602 Bo Naylor ( 198 ) 11 / 5 .237
661 Dairon Blanco ( 124 ) 3 / 24 .258
667 Freddy Fermin ( 217 ) 9 / 0 .281
672 Johan Rojas ( 149 ) 2 / 14 .302
732 Logan O’Hoppe ( 182 ) 14 / 0 .236
933 Davis Schneider ( 116 ) 8 / 1 .276
1026 Enmanuel Valdez ( 139 ) 6 / 5 .266
1072 Noelvi Marte ( 114 ) 3 / 6 .316
1132 Evan Carter ( 62 ) 5 / 3 .306
This is great too! Thanks for this!
I know I say that a lot…But this is awesome, Vin! Woof on Walker! I thought Ruiz was higher and I just went over him so in theory I should know
Haha, well, Ruiz really only gave value in 1 category, and was still the 32nd best OF.
SAGNOF to the extreme
I guess I should have stated that this was just hitters. There probably were rookie pitchers, too.
The rookie Guards rang
hahaha
Hey Grey,
Hope you are enjoying the ‘off season.’ Although, luckily for the rest of us, you don’t seem to take much time off. Anyhoo, as the season was winding down, you were guessing that Adolis would continue to be underrated in fantasy drafts next spring, and I was hoping you were correct, since he has been an integral part of my team for the past two years. However, with the monster postseason he is having, I am thinking that his days of being underrated might be over. Thoughts?
Yeah, you might be right now…I think before he went in the postseason, he was a top 40 guy, now maybe top 25?
Yeah – and he could be more valuable than that. This year he was 16th overall, missed some time due to injury and stopped stealing bases. He’s in my top 20.
Yeah exactly
Carter has been fun to watch in the playoffs. His knowledge of the strike zone is pretty impressive.
Super impressive, right?
Agree. In a post game interview with him, he was asked if he was nervous going into the game 7 of the ALCS so early into his career. He calmly said, Nope, no nerves whatsoever.