Sometimes you write a fantasy baseball overrated post and think, “Grey, you’re like Coolio but instead of Medusa braids, you got brains and such.”  Other times, you think, “You’re a Foolio who can’t even think of something to go with brains.  ‘And such?’  How about ‘dumb much?'”  With this Elvis Andrus overrated post, I legit don’t know if I’m being smart or stupid.  It feels smart, but maybe it’s a blindspot and I’m just being dumb.  It’s definitely not reassuring that I don’t know if I’m being smart or stupid by calling Elvis Andrus overrated.  Jerry Lee Lewis would definitely think it was smart, and might add in Elvis was also bloated.  “That Memphis porker grabbed my spotlight with his peanut butter-stained fingers and loosey-goosey hips.”  That was Jerry Lee Lewis at the Rock ‘n Roll Hall of Fame.  By the by, Jerry Lee Lewis is alive, and only 82 years old.  That is news to everyone.  Never the hoo, I’ve never seen a career year that I couldn’t squash and Andrus’s previous year is no different.  Anyway, why is Elvis Andrus overrated for 2018 fantasy baseball?

Confidence in baseball breeds confidence like a bunch of bunny rabbits on steroids.  Do something that works and you’re like, “Yo, I can do no wrong,” then you attempt to change a tire for a family of four in distress and the jack falls, smashing the minivan down on your foot, breaking it in sixteen places.  See, confidence applies to real life too, but real life/schmeal life, we’re talking fantasy.  I.e., not apples/not applying.  Andrus’s K-rate went up last year and his walk rate went down.  Know why?  Cause everything was working; he was changing that minivan tire.  The percentage he swung at outside the zone went from 27% to 34% and his overall swing rate went from 43% to 47%.  He wasn’t even trying to wait for his pitch last year, he was swinging and it was working.  The problem with that is if it doesn’t work this year, the bottom falls out.  He hit the 28th most ground balls last year between Markakis (woof!) and Kendrys.  Kendrys can hit grounders, because when he does hit fly balls they’re hard.  Andrus’s Hard Contact was 30.5%; same as DJ LeMahieu.  To put previous example in perspective, Kendrys had a 38% Hard Contact.  Distance on homers for Andrus was 92nd with 404 feet on average, which is neither here nor there, perhaps, but you can look at him and see he is not a home run hitter.  I know, with a name like Elvis, he should leave the building at a higher rate.  All of this is backed up by a career HR/FB% of 5.1%.  If he hit homers at his career rate last year, he would’ve had 8 homers.  That sounds silly awful, but guess how many homers he hit in 2016?  8 homers.  In 2015, he hit 7 homers, and I’m not going further back, but you get the drift.  If not, move a little to the right and breathe in.  I just ate sushi, and that’s my Tokyo drift!  Not only do I think there’s a chance here for Andrus to fall to a sub-10 homer guy, I think there’s a chance his batting average plummets too.  Steamer is projecting him for 12/22.  Um, cool, if you’re Jose Peraza with a sprained ankle and can’t steal bags for two months.  The more I go into this Andrus hate, the more I think I’m smart for calling him overrated, which means I’m prolly very stupid.  Damn, coin, you have two sides!

 
  1. Chud says:
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    I’m in need of some expert advice. I’m not a big fan of multi player deals but was offered this in my 10 team full keeper salary league (standard 5×5 scoring):

    I get Goldschmidt ($24), Paxton ($4), AWood ($2), Melencon ($14).

    I give Mookie ($18), Buxton ($20), Happ ($4), Giles ($11).

    Line up after deal (before draft):
    C-Contreras
    1B-Goldy
    1B/3B-Rizzo
    3B-Arenado
    2B-Altuve
    SS-Xander
    2B/SS-Dozier
    OF-Trout
    OF-Mazara
    OF-Souza
    EH-Smoak
    EH-Sano
    Bench-JBell
    Bench-Didi

    Sale
    Martinez
    Castillo
    McCullers
    Bundy
    Paxton
    Wood
    WDavis
    Miller
    Melencon

    Thanks for your expertise!

    • Cram It says:
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      @Chud: I would not make that trade.

    • Chris Coriell says:
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      @Chud:
      You don’t need any advice with that lineup. You have every top ten player on your team

      • Chud says:
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        @Chris Coriell: Thanks for your advice!

        I was able to draft most of these guys as MiLB players n they developed from there……now my league is thinking of starting over in a year or 2 n it’s mostly because of my team…haha.

        Anyways much appreciated.

    • Justin says:
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      @Chud:

      Agree with Cram It

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Chud: Agree with others, hold

      • Chud says:
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        @Grey: thanks! What about a smaller version for the full keeper salary trade:

        I send Happ ($4)

        I get Paxton ($4)

        Schmohawks 0-3 so far…..good work!

        • Chud says:
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          @Chud: BTW I mean 0-3 in ownership of schmohawks for my team….I hate owning guys u label as schmohawks. U r right more times then not with this column over the years…..

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Sounds fine

  2. Justin says:
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    There’s Markakis! Tokyo drift, well played.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Justin: The Greek God of 365-foot Outs

  3. Swfcdan says:
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    Finalising keeper contracts soon. Know most but torn over Conforto:
    1yrs ($3), 2yrs($6), 3yrs($8), renewable year ($6)

    All options seem possible, as I love his bat but just don’t know what to expect after that surgery. Only keep 8 total contracts each year so need to maximise value and avoid risk. That said upside is high, take the middle ground of 2yrs($6)?

    • Swfcdan says:
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      @Swfcdan: And I could keep Godley 1($6) or 2 ($9) years. You seem a Godley fan but rank him suprisingly low. Take the 1 year there? I do think Chase is going to be good to pitch in now on.

    • Cram It says:
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      @Swfcdan: 3 years. That’s cheap.

  4. Cram It says:
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    Man, I am SMH at all these SP’s going in NFBC. 11 taken through the 36 picks including 7 of the last 12. We were well into rd 4 last year before this many were taken.

    • The Great Knoche says:
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      @Cram It: 5 gone so far through 30 in ours. We had our guy on the turn make 1 of 2 picks last night, and then not make the 2nd one and go to bed.

        • The Great Knoche says:
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          @Cram It: Team name is Mandel. In my world he is now Mandlebaum, Mandelbaum, Mandelbaum. All aboard the Pain Train!

          • Gigorilla says:
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            Yes, that was painful — the first of many no doubt

    • Packers says:
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      @Cram It: Not quite the same as I did 3 $50.00 12 team NFBC drafts as glorified mocks before my big money leagues. The count after 36 picks was:
      8 SP and Jansen
      9 SP and Kimbrel
      9 SP.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Cram It: Yeah, ton in our league too, not sure yet how many, haven’t checked in (prolly my turn)…

      • Gigorilla says:
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        Yes

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Sorry, will be there in a few mins

    • Squat Cobblers says:
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      @Cram It: And I’m sure they’re not done. Our recent (on-going) draft had 12 thru 36, 23 thru 72, 37 thru 140 …although the 88 SPs thru 22 rounds was exactly the same as last year’s 15-team NFBC.

      I went thru using Rudy’s ‘cost per snake draft picks’ form from a few years ago. I calculated the allocation for the first 22 rounds of the current NFBC to be 61.1% on Hitting, 27.8% on SP and 11.0% on RP. Not exactly the 66/25/9 that I was suspecting.

      • Squat Cobblers says:
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        @Squat Cobblers: And there were 41! RPs thru 22 rounds as well. I was stunned. I mean, it would be nice to backup my closers…but not at the cost of…..you know what..Nevermind. I just saw the names taken in rounds 19-22, and they are awful (K Calhoun, Reddick, J Reyes, Asdrubal, D Peralta, J Bradley, Gyorko, LoMo, Pillar.)

        I guess I should have taken a reliever. I took C Vasquez, Ryu, Minor and Senzel.

  5. Big Ballin says:
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    OBP keep forever, who do you like better?

    Rizzo and Happ or Betts?

  6. Member Berries says:
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    This a depth question in a deep league.

    Peraza as a 2B/SS bench option
    matt Harvey as an upside pick
    T Williams
    Y Alonso

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Member Berries: Not really a question, more of a list of names… Peraza

      • Member Berries says:
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        @Grey:

        to early to finish my thought but you answered the non question – thank you

        Is Matt Harvey someone you will not consider for 2018 at all? he dead to Grey?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I would not touch him

  7. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Yeah I’ll take Peraza 8,000 rounds later over Andrus if I want SB .270 and a little pop.

  8. Old School Brother says:
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    I think Elvis finishes 2018 hitting .300 with 23-26 stolen bases and 5-7 home runs

  9. Swick says:
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    hey man

    what side in a dynasty

    starling marte
    or
    odor and 1 of bauer or paxton (would be getting this side which pitcher you like more)

    • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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      @Swick: dynasty I’d want the 24 year old Odor (even without the other piece) . . . Odor + either of those guys would definitely work for me. Dynasty I’d rather have the guy with less injury history (Bauer).

  10. cmutimmah says:
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    I had Andrus last year, and was trying to trade him. Glad I didn’t find a taker, because he was great.

    If I have him again this year, I’ll be trying to trade him. Why? Because I don’t think all of a sudden he’s a home run hitter, and I trust him as much as a red headed old lady. Basically, Elvis’ carpet doesn’t match the curtains.

    • Justin says:
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      @cmutimmah:

      I see the analogy but I vehemently will defend red-headed old ladies. Very trustworthy.

      • cmutimmah says:
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        @Justin: Maybe I’ve just had bad luck then, haha

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        @Justin: You’re thinking of crossdressing clowns

        • Justin says:
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          @Grey:

          Shhhh…who told you?

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Rougned Odor

  11. Lincecuminmypants says:
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    12 team, 5×5 keeper league. Easiest way to describe our system is that each player retains his draft round (or minor leaguer/free agent value) and then it accelerates in subsequent years. Right now, my keepers are as follows:

    Goldy (1st), Rendon (6th), Darvish (9th), J. Ramirez (15th), Thor (15th), Severino (15th), Nola (16th)

    If I can get Benintendi (15th) for Darvish, I’ve gotta do it, right?

  12. Kyle Cameron Eberth says:
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    Been offered Goldy for my Giancarlo. I already have Trout as my first keeper. Two outfielders in the first two rounds?! I just can’t imagine parting with Stanton after the year he just had…

    Talk about first world problems. Ay caramba!

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      @Kyle Cameron Eberth:

      Keep Giancarlo, Grey wud never let you trade his guy.

      • Kyle C Eberth says:
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        @Grey: Washingtonian actually, by way of Germany/Poland. But who really knows, I haven’t ponied up for ancestry.com

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Haha, nice

  13. deanobobeano says:
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    @ Willy Mo

    The article reinforces and does a good job of quantifying what most of the hardcore statheads / fantasy fans know. However, taking the advanced stats from a player’s single season, which currently appears to be an outlier based on everything which has occurred historically and projecting it forward to predict performance, is a tenuous construct.

    It’s unlikely that everything breaks perfectly for Judge again in 2018. In the history of low contact rate hitters, there are literally dozens of precedents to suggest regression. Judge’s exit velocity certainly gives him a chance to avoid as substantial a regression but it’s still highly probable.

    The ‘schmohawk’ article suggested to me that the challenge re: Judge is that he has more downside than your average top player and that there are comparable options ranked / drafted much lower or at a fraction of the price (i.e., the risk is fully priced in). A standard regression ranks Judge right round 20th best fantasy player but that is probably lower than most fantasy players will rank him. Objectively, that is a pretty strong outcome for a guy with virtually no track record and a single unique season under his belt.

    If one believes that last year is rationally repeatable (I for one do not) then Judge is easily a top-10 player. If one believes that he regresses normally then he is a borderline top-20 player mainly due to relatively low average and decreased counting stats; if one believes that he regresses significantly (which is a historical norm for low contact guys – hence high year to year variability in performance) then he is more like a top-125 guy due to the power.

    The real question is what are willing to pay up for? Peak performance based on a limited sample set, standard regression or significant regression. Most of the statistically inclined fantasy players I think would pay for standard regression if Judge can be acquired for this price but the challenge is that he is being drafted / acquired based on somewhere between peak value / standard regression which suggests that he carries an asymmetric risk profile (i.e., more downside than upside) based on his draft position / cost.

    While I really like the kid and have a soft spot for baseball giants I doubt he ends up on any of my fantasy teams mainly because I won’t be paying for last year’s performance and believe that he includes a performance volatility factor (though one admittedly mitigated by his exit velocity) that is well in excess of most top players and I want predictability from my top picks combined with upside from my later / cheaper picks.

    • Willy Mo says:
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      @deanobobeano: if you were paying for last years performance you would have to take him like 5th overall, but you dont have to do that. I think i made myself clear above about how his adp makes him appealing to me and why but ill repeat it…

      EVEN IF JUDGE STRIKES OUT 25% MORE THIS YEAR HES STILL AS VALAUBLE A HITTER AS EDWIN ENCARNACION, AND JUDGE ALSO GETS A HANDFUL OF STEALS!

      See ya.

      • Willy Mo says:
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        @Willy Mo: when i say 25% more strikeouts its roughly a 25% increase, 9 percentage points higher. (last year he struck out 31% and the article referenced even if he struck out 40% here is the outcome would be).

    • Willy Mo says:
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      @deanobobeano: when you say judges exit velocity gives him a chance to avoid regression that’s pretty much my whole argument is that nobody is giving enough clout to what exit velocity can do for you. look at the stat I posted above that says batted balls over 112 mph resulted in a huge batting avg. Hes the exit velo king by a good margin. Like 8 of the 10 hardest hit balls ever recorded are judges hits

      • Willy Mo says:
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        @Grey: this really is a hate on judge dick sucking fest. So nobody is intrigued by the fangraphs article that says even if judges k’s last season were 40% instead of 31% he still woulda been about as valuable a hitter as edwin?

      • Willy Mo says:
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        @Grey: great comment lolol laughing crying faces

        He rambled and didnt address anything i said about risk reward adp and judged potential upside and downside. Jeez this is lame.

      • Willy Mo says:
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        @Grey: great comment he said potential 125 overall hahaha so ignore the fact he coulda stuck out 40% of the time and been top 40. Cool

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          He can have 125 overall potential…

          • Willy Mo says:
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            @Grey: i feel like im in a therapists chair right now… just lots of vague stuff being said without focusing on the issues im bringing up…

            40% ks for judge last year instead of 31% and hes still a top 40 player (edwin + 7 steals)

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              You’re really focused on this 40% and he’s still Edwin, huh? “I calculated where Judge would’ve wound up, keeping everything the same…” What’s the same? What if at a 40% rate things are not the same? “Judge is Edwin.” Okay, Edwin’s not drafted as a top 40 player. “Judge is Giancarlo!” Okay, Giancarlo hit 34 HRs his sophomore year.

              • Willy Mo says:
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                @Grey: judge aint no schmohawk at 20 overall where hes being drafted. hes already proven how his power surges can carry him. Sure there will be down moments but yes i think its intriguing that he could stike out that often and still be that valuable. I get its a hypothetical

                • The Great Knoche says:
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                  @Willy Mo: Let’s assume he strikes out at 40%, If his BABIP goes back to .317 he loses 22 base hits. That makes him a .240 hitter. If he does strike out more that number goes south, say maybe .225 The home runs are intriguing and yes he could be top 5 player, but the risk isn’t worth it for me in round 2.

                • Raider says:
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                  @Willy Mo: He hit like .178 his first stretch in the majors and flirted with the mendoza line in the second half last year, if he hits there he isn’t going to be a top 40 player regardless of his exit velocity, thus the inherent risk

  14. Beeker says:
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    Grey, time to get back aboard the Delino Deshields train. You were just a year early. I’m willing to bet Deshields produces minimum 80% of Andrus and is 10 rounds cheaper.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Beeker: I’m on board! Let’s do this!

  15. OaktownSteve says:
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    Hey Albie, when did you decide to punt batting average? It’s a strategy I’ve always wanted to try.

    • The Great Knoche says:
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      @OaktownSteve: Haha. This ^^^^^

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @OaktownSteve: You busting my chops? Haha… You mean my NFBC team so far?

      • OaktownSteve says:
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        @Grey:

        I do and I am.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, hence the Yelich pick

  16. ca says:
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    Standard 5×5 Roto 12 team yahoo redraft. Which side do you like?

    Hoskins, Nunez, Carrasco for Trea Turner, McMahon

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @ca: Turner

      • ca says:
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        @Grey: hmm, so by the same token which side do you like now: Carrasco, Hoskins, Nunez for Trea Turner.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Turner

          • ca says:
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            @Grey: Even in a redraft? I guess that is why I ask your opinion:)

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yeah

  17. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Classic ESPN . . .

    Trea Turner Redraft Ranking: 7
    Trea Turner Keeper Ranking: 9

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        @Grey: Surely, they must be factoring in his inevitable #metoo scandal.

        Honestly, what other reason would they have to down grade him? Injury risk due to stealing all the time?! IDK…

        I assume this was compiled by someone other than whoever did Top 300 redraft, but still! That would be like you listing Turner as the #1 SS in SS rankings but Correa ahead of Turner in the Top 100.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Hahahahaha, totally… Downgraded for future scandal! Hilarious

          • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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            @Grey: @<a href="#[email protected]Grey: Haha thanks. He’ll be out at a party and mistake someone giving him the signs to steal second (or third!) base, but by “base” I mean the way teenagers use it because he’s 14 years old.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Which is what ESPN is predicting him for in 2020! Incredible insight!

          • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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            @Grey: Puig though, I could see being downgraded for future scandal. I wonder if he’s also ranked lower in keepers.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Ha, yeah… By our estimations, Puig will be embroiled in a scandal in 2024. Downgrade!

  18. NatsFan says:
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    Grey-

    Thanks for all the help. Daiquiri on me today.

    15 Team NFBC- 30 rounds in

    C- Alfaro
    C-Barnes
    1b- Au Shizz (10th pick!)
    2b- Schoop
    SS- Anderson
    3b- Rendon
    MI- Wong
    CI- Rizzo
    OF- Benintendi
    OF- Puig
    OF- Mazara
    OF- Mi. Taylor
    OF- Dickerson
    Util- Hanley
    P- Lu. Castillo
    P- Wood
    P- Gray
    P- Corbin
    P-Al. Reyes
    P- Tr. Williams
    P- An. Miller
    P- Melancon
    P- Colome
    Res (so far)- Ryu, Senzel, AJ Ramos, Rodon, Swanson

    I think the offense is sexy as all get out (Benintendi is my 4th best offensive player in a 15 teamer!) and the pitching is a bit wonky. Bought Andrew Miller to solidify the ratios.If I can get two of Reyes, Tr. Williams, Ryu, and Rodon to work out I could be really good I think.

    Thoughts? Thanks again!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @NatsFan: No problem, I agree with your assessment, I love the hitting, maybe light on speed, depends how much Taylor is actually in your lineup (though I do like him)…. Pitching is risky, agreed, though I like the guys you have…

  19. Jose says:
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    What’s most frustrating about Shmohawks, is watching them propel a team, that more than likely auto drafted said player, into contention for an entire year. Like, come on “career year” man, you’re killing me.

    Worked through another WAR Room draft last night. Drafted from the 4th slot and took the man with the ingown toenail, Bryce Harper. Drafted against Fantrax ADP and was much more lenient about taking players even if the draft slot was the exact same as their ADP.

    C McCann -275- (Actually went to take d’Arnaud but his position is N#A and wont draft)
    1B Hosmer (52)
    2B Gordon (28)
    3B Shaw (76)
    SS Lindor (21)
    MI Peraza (172)
    CI Franco (220)
    OF Harper (4)
    OF Ozuna (45)
    OF Puig (117)
    OF Desmond (124)
    OF Polanco (148)
    UTIL M. A. Taylor (227)
    P Quintana (69)
    P Castillo (93)
    P Giles (100)
    P Pomeranz (141)
    P Morton (165)
    P Taillon (179)
    P Morrow (196)
    P Snell (203)
    P Corbin (244)
    Bench Reed (251)
    Bench Boxberger (258)
    Bench Robertson (282)

    R: 99%, HR: 110%, RBI: 99%, SB: 102%, AVG: 103%
    W: 98%, K: 105%, ERA: 98%, WHIP: 102%, SV: 71%

    The saves look terrible, but if I take a Rodney or Bedrosian as a Bench player( ADP 250+) they look a good bit better, but I think I like Reed more than Rodney? Is that crazy? Hoping Robertson gets traded before the deadline, is that a bad hold with his counting stats?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I don’t mind Reed as a cheap late flyer, but you are missing saves, which is a concern… Rest of the team looks solid, love the hitting, hopefully Desmond and Polanco bounce back… Pitching is solid (aside from closers)

  20. OaktownSteve says:
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    I just got sniped on Yelich. Damn. Serves me right for touting him in here.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      He helps with my AVG, and you did stoke some flames on him… I can’t believe how much I’m liking Yelich this year vs. previous…

      • OaktownSteve says:
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        @Grey:

        You rat bastard! I misread the picks and thought you took Dozier…hence my batting average comment. Great pick for you. Could be a top 20 player.

        I took Big Papi. As as modicum of revenge for your sniping I’m going to talk about Charlie Blackmon some more. Last year he hit 24 of his 37 home runs with the bases empty. Lest you say “ok he can’t hit with men on” his RISP numbers were .700 SLG and 1.162 OPS. Here’s a bold prediction for you: Blackmon leads the NL in RBIs this season.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Oh! Was wondering why so down on only two picks about AVG… I saw your pick, totally fine, rather unassuming pick, that only fails if something unforeseen happens which you can’t, uh, foresee so you can’t be held responsible… Blackmon went from a top runs year of the last 25 years to now leading the league in RBIs, that would be a hell of a two-year spread…

          • OaktownSteve says:
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            @Grey:

            One of the first times you and I ever went back and forth on a player it was Jose Bautista. It was the year after he went bananas and you were schmohawking him left and right. I said the skills were real. You can throw out everything that happened before because we’re looking at a different player. That’s Charlie Blackmon. He’s a legit middle of the order bat who has changed his approach to add more power. Nothing you can point to says the 33 homers a year he’s averaged the last two years are flukey. He’s in the greatest park, he’ll have OBP machine Lemahieu ahead of him and Nolan behind him. If you just subtracted the name Blackmon and called him player X, would it be so hard to believe?

            Here’s the one thing that worries me a bit. If he doesn’t take to the middle of the order psychologically. But I’m not going to play that game with him. You could say the same thing about Stanton maybe freaking out playing on the big stage in NYC. A suckers game. But is Blackmon is just basically the guy he’s been the last two years, even with reasonable regression, he’s going to drive in a shit ton of runs.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I hear ya, I didn’t write a schmohawk post about him bc I don’t feel that strongly he won’t put up power numbers again, but if I’m being real, I’m not drafting him for it…I’m drafting him for 25/15 vs. 30+/15… Not really huge difference there which another reason I didn’t schmohawk him…I don’t see the huge downside… His upside I’m seeing is below yours is all…

              • OaktownSteve says:
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                @Grey:

                I won’t surprised he doesn’t steal double digit bags this year and I still like him.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  25/7? Blech!

    • Cram It says:
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      @Grey: @OaktownSteve: What pick was Yelich? Rudy took him, I went Benintendi after him. I am way higher on him than Yelich.

      • OaktownSteve says:
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        @Cram It:

        Benintendi went 31 I think. Yelich 37.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        My 3rd round pick, so like 38, I think…. Benintendi went 6 picks before Yelich here…

        • Cram It says:
          (link)

          @Grey: Wow. Yelich went 43 which is on par, I got Benny at 49. All these SP’s are dropping bats I guess.

  21. crock says:
    (link)

    I got a 12 team espn draft sunday. I drew the 2nd pick and it’s a 5×5 league with obp rather than avg. Looking at Rudy’s rankings I should take Stanton. Is that the play or would you go with somebody with a traditionally higher obp like Harper or someone else?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I could see Stanton #2

      • crock says:
        (link)

        @Grey:
        Would you take Harper, Altuve, Goldy, Turner or Betts instead?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Can’t go wrong with any, I’d follow Rudy’s rankings for OBP

          • crock says:
            (link)

            @Grey:
            Thank you sir!!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              No problem

    • knucks says:
      (link)

      @crock: Keep in mind that Carlos Santana and Joey Gallo get a big bump here, as I’m sure you know already.

      In Rudy’s Ranks it looks like Stanton is a fantastic #2 pick. I’d do it if I were you. From your list there, Altuve is the only one in this format that loses enough value for me to not consider him. At least he does in mine, which is using OBP and SLG in place of AVG. Maybe not having a SLG category he loses less value, I didn’t check that for you. In fact maybe that’s why Giancarlo’s value that I’m looking at right now is causing my head to cave in.

      But yea… my wife says nice things about me too (I think?). So I thought you wouldn’t hate a second opinion here from someone other than Giancarlo’s hubby himself.

      • crock says:
        (link)

        @knucks:
        Thanks for the second opinion. I find myself wanting to take someone other than Stanton but I think that’s because I own him in a dynasty and keeping him in another league. But I think he’s the right pick. If not him Harper.

  22. MattTruss

    MattTruss says:
    (link)

    Just started the Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational drafts, I have pick 11 in my league. I’ve decided since the draft started that pick 11 is the worst pick in this year’s draft, especially in a 15 teamer. I’m fine with any of my top 10 in the first round, but after that, shizz gets dicey. I just can’t get behind Kris Bryant in the first round, ditto for Machado and Correa and it’s too early for Lindor/Freeman. Ended up holding my nose and drafting Scherzer. Don’t love it, but really don’t like this spot. Stanton went right before me and Turner lasted til pick 8. Such a tease.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Turner went 8? That’s insane… I would’ve went Bryant, solid floor, think upside is still unexplored fully

      • MattTruss

        MattTruss says:
        (link)

        I know! I cried a little as he kept falling…ugh. Yea, Bryant was the only debatable choice for me vs. Scherzer or Sale. I had issues with Bryant last year too and ended up with him nowhere, which wasn’t awful. That was also when he was going top 5 though, maybe at 11 isn’t so bad. Targeting Freeman in the 2nd, which is kinda the same player, with an even higher floor I think. At least I don’t need to worry about pitching until like round 8 though.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Why the hate on Bryant? Such a solid floor

          • MattTruss

            MattTruss says:
            (link)

            Could be leftover hate from last year, which was contact% related and K% related. Looking at his numbers deeper from last year though, he did seem to straighten that out some. Also not in love with his craptastic SB%. At least last year I felt like if his Ks caught up to him he’d hit like .250. Maybe I should reconsider him in that position this year. First draft of the year, so still getting the draft feelers out there. Don’t think Scherzer will kill me, I have a plan and that helps.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Nah, Scherzer faces the Mets, Marlins and Braves how many times this year? He might win 30 games…

    • Cram It says:
      (link)

      @MattTruss: I had pick 12 in the NFBC and there was no way I was taking Freeman or Lindor or Correa. I was going to take JD Martinez if Bryant didn’t fall to me.

      • MattTruss

        MattTruss says:
        (link)

        Yea, JD would be decent too, maybe I’ll hope he falls back to me in the second, but I’m targeting Freeman there.

    • OaktownSteve says:
      (link)

      @MattTruss:

      That’s a tough slot. It’s a different draft when you go pitching early. Should be fun to navigate.

      I really like Machado and would have considered JDM for you there over Scherzer. One of the things though with Machado is the SS eligible thing is a little tricky in handling the first month light one MI and long one CI. And there’s a slight risk he shifts back to 3rd for some reason.

      • MattTruss

        MattTruss says:
        (link)

        You trust the Machado bounce back? The SS eligibility is definitely a perk, but right, tricky at first for sure.

  23. Harris says:
    (link)

    15 team keeper. My 10 as of now would be Arrenado. Conforto. Polanco. Berrios. Alex Wood. Stroman. Smoak. K.Davis. Addy Russell , Arcia. Was offered Yu, Haap, Dozier. Miguel Andujar and swap 1st and 2nd for my 3rd and 4th. What say you?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Sounds solid for you

  24. Harris says:
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    Sorry. For Arrenado. Lol.

  25. knucks says:
    (link)

    Did you already listen to all of Tanis? I’m like halfway through and diggin’ it.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Nope, not at all… Haven’t even started it yet… Bit behind in pods this week… You ever download West Cork?

      • knucks says:
        (link)

        @Grey: You mean the new episode that just came out? Or haven’t listened to Tanis in general. Because I am nowhere close to the new episode yet. Its great though.

        Forgot about West Cork. Downloading Audible now.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Haven’t started Tanis yet

          • knucks says:
            (link)

            @Grey: I like it.

            I could see me downloading this Audible app opening a whole new world for me. Dr Katz’s audio tapes… haha wtf

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Haha, I know, right?

  26. Cram It says:
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    I totally passed on my first SP in round 4. I’m screwing myself and I’m loving it!

    • OaktownSteve says:
      (link)

      @Cram It:

      I legit might not take a pitcher to round 10. Haven’t committed to it yet. We’ll see how things unfold.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ha, me too! I don’t even care, think there’s something to after the top 5 or so, they’re all varying levels of solid, but iffy

      • Cram It says:
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        @OaktownSteve: @Grey: Haha. This is great to hear! Let’s see who folds first.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          DeGrom’s still sitting on our draft board at 43rd…

          • Cram It says:
            (link)

            @Grey: I wouldn’t touch him. He went 32 to this Salfino guy, who for talking a bit of ‘pert smack, has Altuve, Carrasco, Degrom. Thanks for playing!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Salfino is known for his bad takes, I’ve heard

        • knucks says:
          (link)

          @Cram It: You guys know if your league will speed up after 30 rounds? Was just reading about that on the NFBC message boards (which aren’t very helpful for info if you ask me really). Wish they did that late round speed up for the NFBC I did this year though. I def was not planning to ever do another one of those. But might consider joining one for 2019 if the late rounds are going to have the shorter time frame.

          • Cram It says:
            (link)

            @knucks: No idea. I figure the reduction from 8 hours to 4 hours is significant enough.

          • Squat Cobblers says:
            (link)

            @knucks: No such luck. We’re in Round 38 and the nitz picking currently has 35 minutes left on his clock. What I just don’t understand is that if you know you’ll be out for the next 4 hours or more, why don’t you simply do “Auto, one pick”…. If there are 10 drafters picking before your turn, put your 11 best names in order that you like ’em…and you’ll get your top guy available. Not rocket science.

          • The Great Knoche says:
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            @knucks: No that is only happening in drafts that started March 1st or later. We are on Feb 28.

      • The Great Knoche says:
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        @Grey: liar!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Haha

          • The Great Knoche says:
            (link)

            @Grey: first time owning Kenley, they say start the run don’t end it.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Was that you who took Kenley? Meh, I won’t be in that run

          • The Great Knoche says:
            (link)

            @Grey: first time owning Kenley, they say start the run don’t end it.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Was that you who took Kenley? Meh, I won’t be in that run

  27. Scott says:
    (link)

    If you had a choice of votto, rendon, bregman, degrom, who would you take in a keeper draft? Can keep player for minimum 2 years. I already own 1b, ss, 3b but need an IF and a dh. Votto is getting older but he is still productive. Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Bregman

  28. Oppo Taco says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey, pulled of a trade this morning in our keeper league (Freeman, 2nd, 3rd, 10th round picks for Corey Seager and Verlander, 1st, 11th, 13th round picks). Verlander was basically a dump because We only keep 8 and I couldn’t get a better offer. Our pool discounts old guys and puts a major emphasis on the younger players.

    I was wondering if you think I should attack pitching with these keepers once the draft starts or just take the best talent available? thanks!

    Keepers : Trea, Goldy, Rizzo, Freeman, Upton, Bregman, Hoskins, Bumgarner

    • Oppo Taco says:
      (link)

      @Oppo Taco: It’s 5×5 roto with 2 util slots, 1 C, and No MI or CI

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      How many teams?

      • Oppo Taco says:
        (link)

        @Grey: 12 teamer

  29. Peacecoast says:
    (link)

    2 catcher league, keeping zunino. G sanzhez may be available for me end of 2nd round. was gonna go abreu. what do you think? in 3 I am keeping Dee and 4 would be my first SP pick.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Go Abreu

  30. herschel says:
    (link)

    @Grey: weekly roto with a two keeper max league. im keeping benintendi and either story or moncada. i drew the 6 pick last night. who do you like best to compliment them? giancarlo, betts or goldschmidt? guessing i will be able to get rizzo or bellinger in round 2.

    thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Giancarlo

      • herschel says:
        (link)

        @Grey: was hoping you would say that…..

  31. brian says:
    (link)

    16 team 7×7 dynasty. OPS and hits extra cats. I’m in playoff contention finishing 4th last year. My starters are gary sanchez, bour, dan murphy, kyle seager, trea, bryce, betts, marte, khris, merrifield, michael taylor. i have brantley, franco, healy, nick williams on the bench.

    My prospects are tatis, touki, carter kieboom, mitch white, pache, kaprielian, yusniel.

    I’ve been offered barretto, alford, and yuli gurriel for my merrifield and healy. I’ve been trying to get rid of healy anyway so i don’t care about him. I like merrifield for speed but i’m not expecting him to put up the same numbers he did last year. that being said it’s a downgrade from him to any of franco/nick williams/brantley (cause he’s never healthy). But the prospect value i’m getting is making me consider the deal . What do you think?

    Thanks grey!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Don’t love it

  32. knucks says:
    (link)

    So…. there is a woman sucking the teet of a cow in the ads for me today. This is the first time I’ve noticed that and feel like it needs to be mentioned.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      HA, hey, it’s your demographic, is what they’re sayin’

      • knucks says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Life in the rolling green hills of Central PA…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Haha

  33. MattTruss

    MattTruss says:
    (link)

    Lindor, Freeman or JD to pair w/Scherzer? Leaning Freeman but OTS and Cram have me 2nd guessing for JD

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      JD’s great for 130 games, depends on waivers, ya know?

      • MattTruss

        MattTruss says:
        (link)

        15 team league, feel like waivers will be pretty sparse

        • MattTruss

          MattTruss says:
          (link)

          Those dongs though…

        • MattTruss

          MattTruss says:
          (link)

          Sticking to the plan, nabbed Freeman, will look for an OF next round (Hope Yelich falls)

          • Cram It says:
            (link)

            @MattTruss: Prob the right move. Didn’t know you had waivers, so OF is easier to find.

            • MattTruss

              MattTruss says:
              (link)

              Yea, this isn’t NFBC, this is just a 15 teamer on FanTrax with a ton of industry folks. I’m in a league with Steve Gardner which is pretty dope. Wouldn’t have a chance to play with someone like that (excluding Grey and Rudy of course) otherwise. A little bit of a bigger stage, which is cool. The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational it’s called. Hopefully they keep doing it, the only req is you have some fantasy writing experience. Cram, we could always use a good DFS writer :)

              • Cram It says:
                (link)

                @MattTruss: Nice, get after it man! I don’t know who Steve Gardner is. Haha. I don’t really follow specific industry people. I’m rooting for ya!

                Ha. The prospect of that intrigues me.

                • MattTruss

                  MattTruss says:
                  (link)

                  I thought it might…Steve Gardner is the USA Today fantasy guy, been in the fantasy game for a long time, always in TOUT and LABR, etc.

              • BJFOHOHL says:
                (link)

                @MattTruss: does past fantasy drivel count?

                • MattTruss

                  MattTruss says:
                  (link)

                  Probably, Mason put them on, you’ll have to see if you can get in next year’s if they do them.

                  • BJFOHOHL says:
                    (link)

                    @MattTruss: I know I can run circles around Son

                    • MattTruss

                      MattTruss says:
                      (link)

                      BSOHL!!

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            Yeah, I have Freeman before JD

            • MattTruss

              MattTruss says:
              (link)

              Yea, Rudy has JD up pretty high. I’m using a blend of Grey/Rudy/Me…GRUSS! Freaking Gardner who got Giancarlo right in front of me @10 goes Stanton/Lindor…drooool

              • Cram It says:
                (link)

                @MattTruss: Damn, that’s a hell of a combo. That’s like the perfect storm of two guys falling as far as they possibly could in the same draft.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                Gruss FTW!

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                Giancarlo should never last until 10, btw… Who was drafting 1st nine? Should be embarrassed

                • VinWins

                  VinWins says:
                  (link)

                  @Grey: There are 6 of those GFBI drafts going on right now. Stanton lasted to 10 in one where Son picked 11th; he lasted to 10 in another where Lance picked him; and he lasted to 11 in another.

                  • VinWins

                    VinWins says:
                    (link)

                    @VinWins: OK, found some more drafts. At least 13. Stanton went #13 in one.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      That makes no sense

                    • MattTruss

                      MattTruss says:
                      (link)

                      I HAVE STANTON #2!!! Ugh….

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
                    (link)

                    I don’t know who these people are, but that’s very late

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, I’d prolly drop him 5 spots from my rankings due to 15 teams, but I don’t mind him…

    • Squat Cobblers says:
      (link)

      @MattTruss: I’d go JD…the possible 10 more dongs offset the BA.

    • The Great Knoche says:
      (link)

      @MattTruss: Freeman.

  34. SLurvy screw cutter fork pitch says:
    (link)

    Would you consider sorting your rankings by position for download and make it part of your Streaminator paywall? I’d sure like to have that cheat sheet. Thx

  35. OaktownSteve says:
    (link)

    Soler power!

    You took a pitcher, you wuss.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, mid-50s is around where I draft pitchers… Now 2 of 4 leagues with Yu, hope he doesn’t shatter my dreams…

      • OaktownSteve says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        He was in the mix for me on my last.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          According to the war room, he had a 0% chance of making it back to me

          • Cram it says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Yu went mid 50s? I was set to take him and he went 2 picks before me at 40.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Yeah, I took him… Then took Segura at pick 67

              • Big Magoo

                Big Magoo says:
                (link)

                @Grey: Yelich/Darvish/Segura were your last three? That’s a solid trio.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Yeah, thanks! Little boring, but solid floors to go with my crazy Cody/Giancarlo orgasmic picks

                  • Big Magoo

                    Big Magoo says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: Yelich is what you’d probably call a Magoo pick. High avg and floor to mitigate the Bellinger risk.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Yeah, that’s the idea

                    • BJFOHOHL says:
                      (link)

                      Magoo gets to everyone eventually. He’s so convincingly practical!

  36. Swick says:
    (link)

    hey boss

    in my dynasty a manager offered me luke weaver for my gallo? was gonna maybe counter for Myers, Chris Taylor or Guerrero Jr

    thoughts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d take Myers

  37. RIP says:
    (link)

    What do ya think. 8 teamer keeper. Severino at $4 or Springer at $8. Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Springer

  38. Monty says:
    (link)

    I’m in an AL only roto keeper league (25 MLB players, up to 5 MILB players). Can keep promoted minor leaguers 3 years after on opening day MLB roster. Trying to decide between Bo Bichette (high floor, moderately high ceiling) and Luis Robert (risky floor, potentially very high ceiling). Who would you take?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Bichette

  39. Brian says:
    (link)

    @grey Need your help. I’m in an empire league 12 team 30 player rosters and we can keep all 30…I have buxton and am being offered Luis Robert and gore and a top pick next year-would you take that or keep buxton? Also, the guy is proposing he gives devers, Robert, gore, and a top pick next year for Jose Ramirez and buxton…would you take either of those deals or leave them both? Thanks sir

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Hold

  40. Brian says:
    (link)

    Andrus also loses too much of his value if they move him down in the lineup. His runs increased in 2017 mainly because of moving up in the lineup, but the Rangers have enough good hitters that he’s not guaranteed to stay in one of the first three lineup positions.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah

  41. Swick says:
    (link)

    thanks for everything man 1 more dynasty question

    nola or bogaerts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Depends on rest of team, apples/oranges

      • Swick says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        pretty sure i need pitching, my main guys are

        hoskins, Odor, Devers, Lindor, Betts, Benintendi, Buxton, Rendon, Bogaerts, W Calhoun, Gallo

        Syndergard, Castillo, Reyes, Stroman, Ohtani

        safe to pull the trigger for nola?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yup

  42. herschel says:
    (link)

    @Grey (or Rudy): in the online war room, is there a way to draft players for other teams (or remove players from the available players but not draft them to your team) as a means of keeping track of the available player pool?

  43. slimbo says:
    (link)

    whats up

    wil myers or gallo in a keeper with no cost

  44. HAL says:
    (link)

    12-team 5×5 league with 9 hitters, 7 pitchers, 5 bench, and 3 DL.

    Should I take 4 starters and 7 relievers/closers (plus 1 bench hitter)? If so, how does that change your advice in the pairing article?

    Archer
    Bauer
    Tanaka
    Wacha

    Rivero
    Iglesias
    Hader
    +4 high upside RPs?

    Is that too much of an investment in mid round picks? Looks like it’d be Rounds 1-5 hitters and Rounds 6-12 mostly pitchers.

    Thanks!

  45. Padre says:
    (link)

    Traded away Bogaerts straight up for Yelich. I already have Trea Turner as my SS, so its a solid deal for me receiving Yelich right?

Comments are closed.