Sometimes you write a fantasy baseball overrated post and think, “Grey, you’re like Coolio but instead of Medusa braids, you got brains and such.” Other times, you think, “You’re a Foolio who can’t even think of something to go with brains. ‘And such?’ How about ‘dumb much?'” With this Elvis Andrus overrated post, I legit don’t know if I’m being smart or stupid. It feels smart, but maybe it’s a blindspot and I’m just being dumb. It’s definitely not reassuring that I don’t know if I’m being smart or stupid by calling Elvis Andrus overrated. Jerry Lee Lewis would definitely think it was smart, and might add in Elvis was also bloated. “That Memphis porker grabbed my spotlight with his peanut butter-stained fingers and loosey-goosey hips.” That was Jerry Lee Lewis at the Rock ‘n Roll Hall of Fame. By the by, Jerry Lee Lewis is alive, and only 82 years old. That is news to everyone. Never the hoo, I’ve never seen a career year that I couldn’t squash and Andrus’s previous year is no different. Anyway, why is Elvis Andrus overrated for 2018 fantasy baseball?
Confidence in baseball breeds confidence like a bunch of bunny rabbits on steroids. Do something that works and you’re like, “Yo, I can do no wrong,” then you attempt to change a tire for a family of four in distress and the jack falls, smashing the minivan down on your foot, breaking it in sixteen places. See, confidence applies to real life too, but real life/schmeal life, we’re talking fantasy. I.e., not apples/not applying. Andrus’s K-rate went up last year and his walk rate went down. Know why? Cause everything was working; he was changing that minivan tire. The percentage he swung at outside the zone went from 27% to 34% and his overall swing rate went from 43% to 47%. He wasn’t even trying to wait for his pitch last year, he was swinging and it was working. The problem with that is if it doesn’t work this year, the bottom falls out. He hit the 28th most ground balls last year between Markakis (woof!) and Kendrys. Kendrys can hit grounders, because when he does hit fly balls they’re hard. Andrus’s Hard Contact was 30.5%; same as DJ LeMahieu. To put previous example in perspective, Kendrys had a 38% Hard Contact. Distance on homers for Andrus was 92nd with 404 feet on average, which is neither here nor there, perhaps, but you can look at him and see he is not a home run hitter. I know, with a name like Elvis, he should leave the building at a higher rate. All of this is backed up by a career HR/FB% of 5.1%. If he hit homers at his career rate last year, he would’ve had 8 homers. That sounds silly awful, but guess how many homers he hit in 2016? 8 homers. In 2015, he hit 7 homers, and I’m not going further back, but you get the drift. If not, move a little to the right and breathe in. I just ate sushi, and that’s my Tokyo drift! Not only do I think there’s a chance here for Andrus to fall to a sub-10 homer guy, I think there’s a chance his batting average plummets too. Steamer is projecting him for 12/22. Um, cool, if you’re Jose Peraza with a sprained ankle and can’t steal bags for two months. The more I go into this Andrus hate, the more I think I’m smart for calling him overrated, which means I’m prolly very stupid. Damn, coin, you have two sides!
I’m in need of some expert advice. I’m not a big fan of multi player deals but was offered this in my 10 team full keeper salary league (standard 5×5 scoring):
I get Goldschmidt ($24), Paxton ($4), AWood ($2), Melencon ($14).
I give Mookie ($18), Buxton ($20), Happ ($4), Giles ($11).
Line up after deal (before draft):
C-Contreras
1B-Goldy
1B/3B-Rizzo
3B-Arenado
2B-Altuve
SS-Xander
2B/SS-Dozier
OF-Trout
OF-Mazara
OF-Souza
EH-Smoak
EH-Sano
Bench-JBell
Bench-Didi
Sale
Martinez
Castillo
McCullers
Bundy
Paxton
Wood
WDavis
Miller
Melencon
Thanks for your expertise!
@Chud: I would not make that trade.
@Chud:
You don’t need any advice with that lineup. You have every top ten player on your team
@Chris Coriell: Thanks for your advice!
I was able to draft most of these guys as MiLB players n they developed from there……now my league is thinking of starting over in a year or 2 n it’s mostly because of my team…haha.
Anyways much appreciated.
@Chud:
Agree with Cram It
@Chud: Agree with others, hold
@Grey: thanks! What about a smaller version for the full keeper salary trade:
I send Happ ($4)
I get Paxton ($4)
Schmohawks 0-3 so far…..good work!
@Chud: BTW I mean 0-3 in ownership of schmohawks for my team….I hate owning guys u label as schmohawks. U r right more times then not with this column over the years…..
Sounds fine
There’s Markakis! Tokyo drift, well played.
@Justin: The Greek God of 365-foot Outs
Finalising keeper contracts soon. Know most but torn over Conforto:
1yrs ($3), 2yrs($6), 3yrs($8), renewable year ($6)
All options seem possible, as I love his bat but just don’t know what to expect after that surgery. Only keep 8 total contracts each year so need to maximise value and avoid risk. That said upside is high, take the middle ground of 2yrs($6)?
@Swfcdan: And I could keep Godley 1($6) or 2 ($9) years. You seem a Godley fan but rank him suprisingly low. Take the 1 year there? I do think Chase is going to be good to pitch in now on.
@Swfcdan: 3 years. That’s cheap.
@Swfcdan: Prolly go 2 years
“Andujar camly pulled a line drive to left field for a single. The ball sizzled off his bat at 112.1 mph, according to Statcast™, with a 12-degree launch angle.
That is top-tier contact. Major League batters combined to hit a line drive or fly ball at 112 mph or harder only 333 times all of last season, and those rockets produced a .922 batting average and 237 extra-base hits.”
Saw this article from last night talking up andujar. 2 things… first I feel like andujar is Ozuna light. If you look back at Ozona’s minor league stats they look really similar to andujar, just that miguel has slightly less power.
Second lets talk Aaron Judge! You see that stat? On batted balls with at least a hundred twelve mile per hour exit velo the batting average (line drives or fly balls) batters hit .922!
Thats why judge can strike out 30% and still hit .280. Becasue his average exit velo is like 105 mph and he holds the record with 121 mph off the bat.
Heres more from a fangraphs article by Jeff Sullivan.
“Overall, last season, Judge posted a .430 wOBA. He did that while striking out almost 31% of the time. There’s concern that Judge might strike out more often. I calculated where Judge would’ve wound up, keeping everything the same but bumping his strikeout rate up to 40%. At 40% strikeouts, 2017 Aaron Judge would’ve still finished with a wOBA of .374, essentially matching the season put up by Edwin Encarnacion.”
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-make-one-thing-absolutely-clear-about-aaron-judge/
-Heres the full Judge article link if you want.
So yeah. Even in a bad season Judge will be what edwin encarnacian was last year. GL with judge being a schmohawk at the 20th overall pick.
@Willy Mo: And on the 8th episode of “Judge and the Willy Mo”, the research team will exhume transcripts from the casket of George Steinbrenner. Will there be evidence that Judge was bio-engineered in the labs beneath Yankee Stadium? Stay tuned tomorrow. Dun dun dunnnnn
@Cram It: haha. You dont think thats compelling? That even if he strikes out 40% of the time he’s about as valuable as last seasons Edwin?
@Willy Mo: He’s intriguing. It’s a small sample size. One season, where he had incredible highs and the lowest of lows. He’s intriguing and I don’t hate him. I’m just not drafting him in the second round is all.
@Cram It: There are far better and safer guys to take in the 2nd round
@Old School Brother: far better… so a guy like springer is “far better” or that much more safe? Im not saying take judge over trout. But around pick 20 hes a value if anything. Not as risky as he seems.
Agree. I took him at 25th.
Young guys can regress and improve at the same time. I think his surroundings will help with more improvement than there is regression.
@Cram It: heres the thing. Ranking judge 20th or so overall is already baking in a good amount of regression as he was a top three hitter last year. If you’re to call him a schmohawk as the 20th ranked player well now you’re basically saying you think he’s going to fall what outside the top 40? What does it take for the 20th ranked player to be a schmohawk? Finish outside the top 35 overall? 50?
So the fangraphs article is saying that even in a scenario where judge struck out 40% of the time, way worse than last year like a 25% increase in k’s he’s still about as valuable a hitter as Edwin Encarnacion. Everyone is not putting enough emphasis on what made him a top 3 player last year, 115 mph baseballs off his bat. Thats what will stem his regression.
@Willy Mo: No, I know the thing! You covered this yesterday.
@Willy Mo: you should just copy/paste this every day if you aren’t already since it’s the same thing
“heres the thing. Ranking judge 20th or so overall is already baking in a good amount of regression as he was a top three hitter last year. If you’re to call him a schmohawk as the 20th ranked player well now you’re basically saying you think he’s going to fall what outside the top 40?”
@Cram It: Haha
@Willy Mo: And Edwin was 40th on the player rater last year….So how does that not make him a schmohawk at the 20th pick?
@The Great Knoche: thats calculating with 40% strikeouts!!! 9% higher than last year.
Hes 25, he also can improve, just like he showed when he was player of the month in speptember last year after his slump.
Haters gone hate…
@Willy Mo: Edwin was only at 20% if that’s what you want to compare it to.
Yes, and also look at the pitching staffs he faced in September. Baltimore 7 games, TB 7 games, Tex 3 Games, KC 1 game, Bos 3 games, Min 3 games. Pitching gold from that group.
And yes haters gonna hate. Homer.
@The Great Knoche:
I think he’s saying his season production would be comparable then to Edwin, not comparing the strikeouts between the two.
@The Great Knoche: huh you lost knoch, can you read?
We’re not comparing strikeout rates… what the stat was saying was that even if Aaron judge struck out way more than he did last year 25% more in fact he still would have been about as valuable a hitter as Edwin was last year. Yes clearly that would be a disappointing season for judge but my point is it’s unlikely he regresses that much and even if he does he’s still Edwin Encarnacion so how risky is he really?
Please dont reply to this knoche, you are hurting my head
@Willy Mo:
Good post Willy Mo. Good to see people matching opinions with facts. Downside is 40 overall, upside is 1 overall. So 20 seems about right methinks.
@Justin: thanks justin. Yeah that seems fair. I’m only arguing judge is not a schmohawk at 20 overall. If anything hes a value and not as risky as grey makes him seem.
@Justin: Chances are he’s a lot closer to 40 than 1
@Old School Brother: but paying a 20th overall price tag for a downside of 40 overall tyoe player and huge potential upside isnt worth it at age 25?? I mean is anyone thinking rationally here or they just want to hate on Judge and agree with grey?
@Old School Brother:
Based on…? Your intuition? You read Willy’s article he posted, right?
@Justin: yeah i mean the article can almost translate to a worst case scenario for judge and hes about the 40th best player… but why are we assuming the absolute worst case?
Like I said many times we’re ignoring his raw power illuminated by statcast which will stem his regression.
@Willy Mo: …and give him the upside to be what he was last year. Elite.
@Justin: I glanced at it
@Willy Mo:
Good post. Also read the Zimmerman article. I’m neutral on Judge. The two things I’d put in the concern column are the shoulder surgery and the adjustments. I know it’s being down played as minor but it’s delaying his spring and the are instances of lingering effects on hitters who’ve had shoulder work done.
The other thing is that pitcher adjustments don’t only lead to increased strike outs, they also can lead to decreased quality of contact as pitchers try a different approach in location and pitch mix.
My thing on Judge is that there’s a higher variance in the range of outcomes than I’d want in the early part of the draft. I like a little more track record. But no doubt you could crush it with him in the second round.
Even if he’s healthy right now, what happens if in May his shoulder starts barking? He can’t shut it down for two weeks and have everything be okay again….
@Willy Mo: He hits everything hard or misses a lot, it’s not intriguing unless 121 MPH off the bat counts twice, he’s still missing a lot
@Grey: in essence it does count twice. Maybe more than twice. Look at the stats of how often balls that hard in play are outs.
He still has to hit them
@Grey: yeah he will prolly go 0-500 this year good call.
You ever see the movie whiplash?
Yup
@Grey: razzball is the fantasy baseball version
I don’t follow
@Grey: the movie whiplash where the teacher demands excellence from the music students. Lol i just saw it last night. Wonder what happens after the movie ends.
Credits roll
@Willy Mo: A video of Aaron Judge striking out rolls.
Man, I am SMH at all these SP’s going in NFBC. 11 taken through the 36 picks including 7 of the last 12. We were well into rd 4 last year before this many were taken.
@Cram It: 5 gone so far through 30 in ours. We had our guy on the turn make 1 of 2 picks last night, and then not make the 2nd one and go to bed.
@The Great Knoche: Haha. What a douche.
@Cram It: Team name is Mandel. In my world he is now Mandlebaum, Mandelbaum, Mandelbaum. All aboard the Pain Train!
Yes, that was painful — the first of many no doubt
@Cram It: Not quite the same as I did 3 $50.00 12 team NFBC drafts as glorified mocks before my big money leagues. The count after 36 picks was:
8 SP and Jansen
9 SP and Kimbrel
9 SP.
@Cram It: Yeah, ton in our league too, not sure yet how many, haven’t checked in (prolly my turn)…
Yes
Sorry, will be there in a few mins
@Cram It: And I’m sure they’re not done. Our recent (on-going) draft had 12 thru 36, 23 thru 72, 37 thru 140 …although the 88 SPs thru 22 rounds was exactly the same as last year’s 15-team NFBC.
I went thru using Rudy’s ‘cost per snake draft picks’ form from a few years ago. I calculated the allocation for the first 22 rounds of the current NFBC to be 61.1% on Hitting, 27.8% on SP and 11.0% on RP. Not exactly the 66/25/9 that I was suspecting.
@Squat Cobblers: And there were 41! RPs thru 22 rounds as well. I was stunned. I mean, it would be nice to backup my closers…but not at the cost of…..you know what..Nevermind. I just saw the names taken in rounds 19-22, and they are awful (K Calhoun, Reddick, J Reyes, Asdrubal, D Peralta, J Bradley, Gyorko, LoMo, Pillar.)
I guess I should have taken a reliever. I took C Vasquez, Ryu, Minor and Senzel.
OBP keep forever, who do you like better?
Rizzo and Happ or Betts?
@Big Ballin: Betts
This a depth question in a deep league.
Peraza as a 2B/SS bench option
matt Harvey as an upside pick
T Williams
Y Alonso
@Member Berries: Not really a question, more of a list of names… Peraza
@Grey:
to early to finish my thought but you answered the non question – thank you
Is Matt Harvey someone you will not consider for 2018 at all? he dead to Grey?
I would not touch him
He’s ranked in my top 100 SPs https://razzball.com/top-100-starters-for-2018-fantasy-baseball/
Yeah I’ll take Peraza 8,000 rounds later over Andrus if I want SB .270 and a little pop.
@Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: Amen, brother!
I think Elvis finishes 2018 hitting .300 with 23-26 stolen bases and 5-7 home runs
@Old School Brother: Ouch, and that’s from OSB
hey man
what side in a dynasty
starling marte
or
odor and 1 of bauer or paxton (would be getting this side which pitcher you like more)
@Swick: dynasty I’d want the 24 year old Odor (even without the other piece) . . . Odor + either of those guys would definitely work for me. Dynasty I’d rather have the guy with less injury history (Bauer).
@Duda Want to Build a Snowman?:
agree with Duda
@Swick: Odor, Bauer
I had Andrus last year, and was trying to trade him. Glad I didn’t find a taker, because he was great.
If I have him again this year, I’ll be trying to trade him. Why? Because I don’t think all of a sudden he’s a home run hitter, and I trust him as much as a red headed old lady. Basically, Elvis’ carpet doesn’t match the curtains.
@cmutimmah:
I see the analogy but I vehemently will defend red-headed old ladies. Very trustworthy.
@Justin: Maybe I’ve just had bad luck then, haha
@Justin: You’re thinking of crossdressing clowns
@Grey:
Shhhh…who told you?
Rougned Odor
@cmutimmah: Haha
12 team, 5×5 keeper league. Easiest way to describe our system is that each player retains his draft round (or minor leaguer/free agent value) and then it accelerates in subsequent years. Right now, my keepers are as follows:
Goldy (1st), Rendon (6th), Darvish (9th), J. Ramirez (15th), Thor (15th), Severino (15th), Nola (16th)
If I can get Benintendi (15th) for Darvish, I’ve gotta do it, right?
@Lincecuminmypants: Yeah
@Grey: Thx!
No problem
Been offered Goldy for my Giancarlo. I already have Trout as my first keeper. Two outfielders in the first two rounds?! I just can’t imagine parting with Stanton after the year he just had…
Talk about first world problems. Ay caramba!
@Kyle Cameron Eberth:
Keep Giancarlo, Grey wud never let you trade his guy.
@Kyle Cameron Eberth: I’d want Giancarlo, interesting name, nordic?
@Grey: Washingtonian actually, by way of Germany/Poland. But who really knows, I haven’t ponied up for ancestry.com
Haha, nice
@ Willy Mo
The article reinforces and does a good job of quantifying what most of the hardcore statheads / fantasy fans know. However, taking the advanced stats from a player’s single season, which currently appears to be an outlier based on everything which has occurred historically and projecting it forward to predict performance, is a tenuous construct.
It’s unlikely that everything breaks perfectly for Judge again in 2018. In the history of low contact rate hitters, there are literally dozens of precedents to suggest regression. Judge’s exit velocity certainly gives him a chance to avoid as substantial a regression but it’s still highly probable.
The ‘schmohawk’ article suggested to me that the challenge re: Judge is that he has more downside than your average top player and that there are comparable options ranked / drafted much lower or at a fraction of the price (i.e., the risk is fully priced in). A standard regression ranks Judge right round 20th best fantasy player but that is probably lower than most fantasy players will rank him. Objectively, that is a pretty strong outcome for a guy with virtually no track record and a single unique season under his belt.
If one believes that last year is rationally repeatable (I for one do not) then Judge is easily a top-10 player. If one believes that he regresses normally then he is a borderline top-20 player mainly due to relatively low average and decreased counting stats; if one believes that he regresses significantly (which is a historical norm for low contact guys – hence high year to year variability in performance) then he is more like a top-125 guy due to the power.
The real question is what are willing to pay up for? Peak performance based on a limited sample set, standard regression or significant regression. Most of the statistically inclined fantasy players I think would pay for standard regression if Judge can be acquired for this price but the challenge is that he is being drafted / acquired based on somewhere between peak value / standard regression which suggests that he carries an asymmetric risk profile (i.e., more downside than upside) based on his draft position / cost.
While I really like the kid and have a soft spot for baseball giants I doubt he ends up on any of my fantasy teams mainly because I won’t be paying for last year’s performance and believe that he includes a performance volatility factor (though one admittedly mitigated by his exit velocity) that is well in excess of most top players and I want predictability from my top picks combined with upside from my later / cheaper picks.
@deanobobeano: if you were paying for last years performance you would have to take him like 5th overall, but you dont have to do that. I think i made myself clear above about how his adp makes him appealing to me and why but ill repeat it…
EVEN IF JUDGE STRIKES OUT 25% MORE THIS YEAR HES STILL AS VALAUBLE A HITTER AS EDWIN ENCARNACION, AND JUDGE ALSO GETS A HANDFUL OF STEALS!
See ya.
@Willy Mo: when i say 25% more strikeouts its roughly a 25% increase, 9 percentage points higher. (last year he struck out 31% and the article referenced even if he struck out 40% here is the outcome would be).
@deanobobeano: when you say judges exit velocity gives him a chance to avoid regression that’s pretty much my whole argument is that nobody is giving enough clout to what exit velocity can do for you. look at the stat I posted above that says batted balls over 112 mph resulted in a huge batting avg. Hes the exit velo king by a good margin. Like 8 of the 10 hardest hit balls ever recorded are judges hits
@deanobobeano: Great comment!
@Grey: this really is a hate on judge dick sucking fest. So nobody is intrigued by the fangraphs article that says even if judges k’s last season were 40% instead of 31% he still woulda been about as valuable a hitter as edwin?
@Grey: great comment lolol laughing crying faces
He rambled and didnt address anything i said about risk reward adp and judged potential upside and downside. Jeez this is lame.
@Grey: great comment he said potential 125 overall hahaha so ignore the fact he coulda stuck out 40% of the time and been top 40. Cool
He can have 125 overall potential…
@Grey: i feel like im in a therapists chair right now… just lots of vague stuff being said without focusing on the issues im bringing up…
40% ks for judge last year instead of 31% and hes still a top 40 player (edwin + 7 steals)
You’re really focused on this 40% and he’s still Edwin, huh? “I calculated where Judge would’ve wound up, keeping everything the same…” What’s the same? What if at a 40% rate things are not the same? “Judge is Edwin.” Okay, Edwin’s not drafted as a top 40 player. “Judge is Giancarlo!” Okay, Giancarlo hit 34 HRs his sophomore year.
@Grey: judge aint no schmohawk at 20 overall where hes being drafted. hes already proven how his power surges can carry him. Sure there will be down moments but yes i think its intriguing that he could stike out that often and still be that valuable. I get its a hypothetical
@Willy Mo: Let’s assume he strikes out at 40%, If his BABIP goes back to .317 he loses 22 base hits. That makes him a .240 hitter. If he does strike out more that number goes south, say maybe .225 The home runs are intriguing and yes he could be top 5 player, but the risk isn’t worth it for me in round 2.
@Willy Mo: He hit like .178 his first stretch in the majors and flirted with the mendoza line in the second half last year, if he hits there he isn’t going to be a top 40 player regardless of his exit velocity, thus the inherent risk
Anyone else interested in restarting a “razz” league? = points for futility, worst team wins.
According to Vin, here are the last rules used (in 2013):
Hitters (AB = +2, H = -3, R = -4, HR = -6, RBI = -4, K = +2)
Pitchers (IP = -1, HR = +4, L = +8, K = -1, ER = +1.5, H+BB = +1).
So the goal is to find guys who are going to play a lot, but suck. FUN!!!
Original post here:
https://razzball.com/the-birth-of-razzball/
Last post I could find (without looking very hard) here:
https://razzball.com/2012-fantasy-razzball-leagues-oh-boy-tears-of-joy/
If interested, email thebigyabu [at] gmail [dot] com
@The Big Yabu: lol… now I need to focus on guys that are off my radar for other leagues?
Why do I find this intriguing?!?
But, alas, with a child on the way, selling the current and buying a new house during the season, and 2 other pay leagues, I am probably not going to be able to do it this year :(
@The Big Yabu: Ha, nice! Bring it back!
@Grey: I’m trying! But so far it’s just me and Vin. Hopefully some responses will come in from this, and I’ll also advertise it in Truss’s next RCL update.
So who would be 1.1 in that league? Alcides? Adeiny? J-Hey? the entire Marlins lineup?
I’d be tempted to try to find the lightest-hitting 1B, but they all seem “risky” in that they *might* not suck…
Alcides is a sexy name, or JT Riddle if he can win the SS job in Miami, but pitchers always rack up the worst points… Someone like Homer Bailey is usually awfully good!
@Grey: Ah, thanks for the tip — Rockies SPs suddenly have 1st-round value!
You interested in joining the league, by any chance? Weekly lineups, so pretty low effort. We could put a few $$ on the line, or just do it for esses and gees…
Maybe… I’m kinda interested in its revitalization
@Grey: Jose Iglesias, Joe Panik, Alex Gordon
All great picks!
@Grey: Billy Hamilton would have been the top scorer last season.
I could see that, negative categories are king…
@Grey: Also, very low on HR/RBI.
Yup!
@The Big Yabu: i tried to get one of these going a couple of years back, only got like 3 people.
Grey, time to get back aboard the Delino Deshields train. You were just a year early. I’m willing to bet Deshields produces minimum 80% of Andrus and is 10 rounds cheaper.
@Beeker: I’m on board! Let’s do this!
Hey Albie, when did you decide to punt batting average? It’s a strategy I’ve always wanted to try.
@OaktownSteve: Haha. This ^^^^^
@OaktownSteve: You busting my chops? Haha… You mean my NFBC team so far?
@Grey:
I do and I am.
Yeah, hence the Yelich pick
Standard 5×5 Roto 12 team yahoo redraft. Which side do you like?
Hoskins, Nunez, Carrasco for Trea Turner, McMahon
@ca: Turner
@Grey: hmm, so by the same token which side do you like now: Carrasco, Hoskins, Nunez for Trea Turner.
Turner
@Grey: Even in a redraft? I guess that is why I ask your opinion:)
Yeah
Classic ESPN . . .
Trea Turner Redraft Ranking: 7
Trea Turner Keeper Ranking: 9
@Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: HA! Seriously, I’d love to know logic there
@Grey: Surely, they must be factoring in his inevitable #metoo scandal.
Honestly, what other reason would they have to down grade him? Injury risk due to stealing all the time?! IDK…
I assume this was compiled by someone other than whoever did Top 300 redraft, but still! That would be like you listing Turner as the #1 SS in SS rankings but Correa ahead of Turner in the Top 100.
Hahahahaha, totally… Downgraded for future scandal! Hilarious
@Grey: @<a href="#[email protected]Grey: Haha thanks. He’ll be out at a party and mistake someone giving him the signs to steal second (or third!) base, but by “base” I mean the way teenagers use it because he’s 14 years old.
Which is what ESPN is predicting him for in 2020! Incredible insight!
@Grey: Puig though, I could see being downgraded for future scandal. I wonder if he’s also ranked lower in keepers.
Ha, yeah… By our estimations, Puig will be embroiled in a scandal in 2024. Downgrade!
Grey-
Thanks for all the help. Daiquiri on me today.
15 Team NFBC- 30 rounds in
C- Alfaro
C-Barnes
1b- Au Shizz (10th pick!)
2b- Schoop
SS- Anderson
3b- Rendon
MI- Wong
CI- Rizzo
OF- Benintendi
OF- Puig
OF- Mazara
OF- Mi. Taylor
OF- Dickerson
Util- Hanley
P- Lu. Castillo
P- Wood
P- Gray
P- Corbin
P-Al. Reyes
P- Tr. Williams
P- An. Miller
P- Melancon
P- Colome
Res (so far)- Ryu, Senzel, AJ Ramos, Rodon, Swanson
I think the offense is sexy as all get out (Benintendi is my 4th best offensive player in a 15 teamer!) and the pitching is a bit wonky. Bought Andrew Miller to solidify the ratios.If I can get two of Reyes, Tr. Williams, Ryu, and Rodon to work out I could be really good I think.
Thoughts? Thanks again!
@NatsFan: No problem, I agree with your assessment, I love the hitting, maybe light on speed, depends how much Taylor is actually in your lineup (though I do like him)…. Pitching is risky, agreed, though I like the guys you have…
What’s most frustrating about Shmohawks, is watching them propel a team, that more than likely auto drafted said player, into contention for an entire year. Like, come on “career year” man, you’re killing me.
Worked through another WAR Room draft last night. Drafted from the 4th slot and took the man with the ingown toenail, Bryce Harper. Drafted against Fantrax ADP and was much more lenient about taking players even if the draft slot was the exact same as their ADP.
C McCann -275- (Actually went to take d’Arnaud but his position is N#A and wont draft)
1B Hosmer (52)
2B Gordon (28)
3B Shaw (76)
SS Lindor (21)
MI Peraza (172)
CI Franco (220)
OF Harper (4)
OF Ozuna (45)
OF Puig (117)
OF Desmond (124)
OF Polanco (148)
UTIL M. A. Taylor (227)
P Quintana (69)
P Castillo (93)
P Giles (100)
P Pomeranz (141)
P Morton (165)
P Taillon (179)
P Morrow (196)
P Snell (203)
P Corbin (244)
Bench Reed (251)
Bench Boxberger (258)
Bench Robertson (282)
R: 99%, HR: 110%, RBI: 99%, SB: 102%, AVG: 103%
W: 98%, K: 105%, ERA: 98%, WHIP: 102%, SV: 71%
The saves look terrible, but if I take a Rodney or Bedrosian as a Bench player( ADP 250+) they look a good bit better, but I think I like Reed more than Rodney? Is that crazy? Hoping Robertson gets traded before the deadline, is that a bad hold with his counting stats?
I don’t mind Reed as a cheap late flyer, but you are missing saves, which is a concern… Rest of the team looks solid, love the hitting, hopefully Desmond and Polanco bounce back… Pitching is solid (aside from closers)
I just got sniped on Yelich. Damn. Serves me right for touting him in here.
He helps with my AVG, and you did stoke some flames on him… I can’t believe how much I’m liking Yelich this year vs. previous…
@Grey:
You rat bastard! I misread the picks and thought you took Dozier…hence my batting average comment. Great pick for you. Could be a top 20 player.
I took Big Papi. As as modicum of revenge for your sniping I’m going to talk about Charlie Blackmon some more. Last year he hit 24 of his 37 home runs with the bases empty. Lest you say “ok he can’t hit with men on” his RISP numbers were .700 SLG and 1.162 OPS. Here’s a bold prediction for you: Blackmon leads the NL in RBIs this season.
Oh! Was wondering why so down on only two picks about AVG… I saw your pick, totally fine, rather unassuming pick, that only fails if something unforeseen happens which you can’t, uh, foresee so you can’t be held responsible… Blackmon went from a top runs year of the last 25 years to now leading the league in RBIs, that would be a hell of a two-year spread…
@Grey:
One of the first times you and I ever went back and forth on a player it was Jose Bautista. It was the year after he went bananas and you were schmohawking him left and right. I said the skills were real. You can throw out everything that happened before because we’re looking at a different player. That’s Charlie Blackmon. He’s a legit middle of the order bat who has changed his approach to add more power. Nothing you can point to says the 33 homers a year he’s averaged the last two years are flukey. He’s in the greatest park, he’ll have OBP machine Lemahieu ahead of him and Nolan behind him. If you just subtracted the name Blackmon and called him player X, would it be so hard to believe?
Here’s the one thing that worries me a bit. If he doesn’t take to the middle of the order psychologically. But I’m not going to play that game with him. You could say the same thing about Stanton maybe freaking out playing on the big stage in NYC. A suckers game. But is Blackmon is just basically the guy he’s been the last two years, even with reasonable regression, he’s going to drive in a shit ton of runs.
I hear ya, I didn’t write a schmohawk post about him bc I don’t feel that strongly he won’t put up power numbers again, but if I’m being real, I’m not drafting him for it…I’m drafting him for 25/15 vs. 30+/15… Not really huge difference there which another reason I didn’t schmohawk him…I don’t see the huge downside… His upside I’m seeing is below yours is all…
@Grey:
I won’t surprised he doesn’t steal double digit bags this year and I still like him.
25/7? Blech!
@Grey: @OaktownSteve: What pick was Yelich? Rudy took him, I went Benintendi after him. I am way higher on him than Yelich.
@Cram It:
Benintendi went 31 I think. Yelich 37.
My 3rd round pick, so like 38, I think…. Benintendi went 6 picks before Yelich here…
@Grey: Wow. Yelich went 43 which is on par, I got Benny at 49. All these SP’s are dropping bats I guess.
Yeah, we have less SPs off the board, so bats going earlier… HA:
@Grey: I don’t love Yelich, not that I know what was available. But he’s a 5 cat contributor for balance there. Seems a solid choice considering the first two.
Yeah, I just wanted a bit more AVG/SBs and balance
I got a 12 team espn draft sunday. I drew the 2nd pick and it’s a 5×5 league with obp rather than avg. Looking at Rudy’s rankings I should take Stanton. Is that the play or would you go with somebody with a traditionally higher obp like Harper or someone else?
I could see Stanton #2
@Grey:
Would you take Harper, Altuve, Goldy, Turner or Betts instead?
Can’t go wrong with any, I’d follow Rudy’s rankings for OBP
@Grey:
Thank you sir!!
No problem
@crock: Keep in mind that Carlos Santana and Joey Gallo get a big bump here, as I’m sure you know already.
In Rudy’s Ranks it looks like Stanton is a fantastic #2 pick. I’d do it if I were you. From your list there, Altuve is the only one in this format that loses enough value for me to not consider him. At least he does in mine, which is using OBP and SLG in place of AVG. Maybe not having a SLG category he loses less value, I didn’t check that for you. In fact maybe that’s why Giancarlo’s value that I’m looking at right now is causing my head to cave in.
But yea… my wife says nice things about me too (I think?). So I thought you wouldn’t hate a second opinion here from someone other than Giancarlo’s hubby himself.
@knucks:
Thanks for the second opinion. I find myself wanting to take someone other than Stanton but I think that’s because I own him in a dynasty and keeping him in another league. But I think he’s the right pick. If not him Harper.
Just started the Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational drafts, I have pick 11 in my league. I’ve decided since the draft started that pick 11 is the worst pick in this year’s draft, especially in a 15 teamer. I’m fine with any of my top 10 in the first round, but after that, shizz gets dicey. I just can’t get behind Kris Bryant in the first round, ditto for Machado and Correa and it’s too early for Lindor/Freeman. Ended up holding my nose and drafting Scherzer. Don’t love it, but really don’t like this spot. Stanton went right before me and Turner lasted til pick 8. Such a tease.
Turner went 8? That’s insane… I would’ve went Bryant, solid floor, think upside is still unexplored fully
I know! I cried a little as he kept falling…ugh. Yea, Bryant was the only debatable choice for me vs. Scherzer or Sale. I had issues with Bryant last year too and ended up with him nowhere, which wasn’t awful. That was also when he was going top 5 though, maybe at 11 isn’t so bad. Targeting Freeman in the 2nd, which is kinda the same player, with an even higher floor I think. At least I don’t need to worry about pitching until like round 8 though.
Why the hate on Bryant? Such a solid floor
Could be leftover hate from last year, which was contact% related and K% related. Looking at his numbers deeper from last year though, he did seem to straighten that out some. Also not in love with his craptastic SB%. At least last year I felt like if his Ks caught up to him he’d hit like .250. Maybe I should reconsider him in that position this year. First draft of the year, so still getting the draft feelers out there. Don’t think Scherzer will kill me, I have a plan and that helps.
Nah, Scherzer faces the Mets, Marlins and Braves how many times this year? He might win 30 games…
@MattTruss: I had pick 12 in the NFBC and there was no way I was taking Freeman or Lindor or Correa. I was going to take JD Martinez if Bryant didn’t fall to me.
Yea, JD would be decent too, maybe I’ll hope he falls back to me in the second, but I’m targeting Freeman there.
@MattTruss:
That’s a tough slot. It’s a different draft when you go pitching early. Should be fun to navigate.
I really like Machado and would have considered JDM for you there over Scherzer. One of the things though with Machado is the SS eligible thing is a little tricky in handling the first month light one MI and long one CI. And there’s a slight risk he shifts back to 3rd for some reason.
You trust the Machado bounce back? The SS eligibility is definitely a perk, but right, tricky at first for sure.
15 team keeper. My 10 as of now would be Arrenado. Conforto. Polanco. Berrios. Alex Wood. Stroman. Smoak. K.Davis. Addy Russell , Arcia. Was offered Yu, Haap, Dozier. Miguel Andujar and swap 1st and 2nd for my 3rd and 4th. What say you?
Sounds solid for you
Sorry. For Arrenado. Lol.
Did you already listen to all of Tanis? I’m like halfway through and diggin’ it.
Nope, not at all… Haven’t even started it yet… Bit behind in pods this week… You ever download West Cork?
@Grey: You mean the new episode that just came out? Or haven’t listened to Tanis in general. Because I am nowhere close to the new episode yet. Its great though.
Forgot about West Cork. Downloading Audible now.
Haven’t started Tanis yet
@Grey: I like it.
I could see me downloading this Audible app opening a whole new world for me. Dr Katz’s audio tapes… haha wtf
Haha, I know, right?
I totally passed on my first SP in round 4. I’m screwing myself and I’m loving it!
@Cram It:
I legit might not take a pitcher to round 10. Haven’t committed to it yet. We’ll see how things unfold.
Ha, me too! I don’t even care, think there’s something to after the top 5 or so, they’re all varying levels of solid, but iffy
@OaktownSteve: @Grey: Haha. This is great to hear! Let’s see who folds first.
DeGrom’s still sitting on our draft board at 43rd…
@Grey: I wouldn’t touch him. He went 32 to this Salfino guy, who for talking a bit of ‘pert smack, has Altuve, Carrasco, Degrom. Thanks for playing!
Salfino is known for his bad takes, I’ve heard
@Cram It: You guys know if your league will speed up after 30 rounds? Was just reading about that on the NFBC message boards (which aren’t very helpful for info if you ask me really). Wish they did that late round speed up for the NFBC I did this year though. I def was not planning to ever do another one of those. But might consider joining one for 2019 if the late rounds are going to have the shorter time frame.
@knucks: No idea. I figure the reduction from 8 hours to 4 hours is significant enough.
@knucks: No such luck. We’re in Round 38 and the nitz picking currently has 35 minutes left on his clock. What I just don’t understand is that if you know you’ll be out for the next 4 hours or more, why don’t you simply do “Auto, one pick”…. If there are 10 drafters picking before your turn, put your 11 best names in order that you like ’em…and you’ll get your top guy available. Not rocket science.
@knucks: No that is only happening in drafts that started March 1st or later. We are on Feb 28.
@Grey: liar!
Haha
@Grey: first time owning Kenley, they say start the run don’t end it.
Was that you who took Kenley? Meh, I won’t be in that run
@Grey: first time owning Kenley, they say start the run don’t end it.
Was that you who took Kenley? Meh, I won’t be in that run
If you had a choice of votto, rendon, bregman, degrom, who would you take in a keeper draft? Can keep player for minimum 2 years. I already own 1b, ss, 3b but need an IF and a dh. Votto is getting older but he is still productive. Thanks
Bregman
Hey Grey, pulled of a trade this morning in our keeper league (Freeman, 2nd, 3rd, 10th round picks for Corey Seager and Verlander, 1st, 11th, 13th round picks). Verlander was basically a dump because We only keep 8 and I couldn’t get a better offer. Our pool discounts old guys and puts a major emphasis on the younger players.
I was wondering if you think I should attack pitching with these keepers once the draft starts or just take the best talent available? thanks!
Keepers : Trea, Goldy, Rizzo, Freeman, Upton, Bregman, Hoskins, Bumgarner
@Oppo Taco: It’s 5×5 roto with 2 util slots, 1 C, and No MI or CI
How many teams?
@Grey: 12 teamer
I’d follow my pitchers pairings https://razzball.com/2018-fantasy-baseball-draft-prep-pitchers-pairings/
@Grey: Awesome, Thanks! My league thinks I gave up way too much in that deal. I’ve usually ended up on the right side of things in most trades. Think I gave up too much? Verlander wasn’t being kept and was a dump. I know you’re big on Freeman and he seems to have just as much long term value anyway (despite 4 yr age difference)
Nah, sounds fair
2 catcher league, keeping zunino. G sanzhez may be available for me end of 2nd round. was gonna go abreu. what do you think? in 3 I am keeping Dee and 4 would be my first SP pick.
Go Abreu
@Grey: weekly roto with a two keeper max league. im keeping benintendi and either story or moncada. i drew the 6 pick last night. who do you like best to compliment them? giancarlo, betts or goldschmidt? guessing i will be able to get rizzo or bellinger in round 2.
thanks.
Giancarlo
@Grey: was hoping you would say that…..
16 team 7×7 dynasty. OPS and hits extra cats. I’m in playoff contention finishing 4th last year. My starters are gary sanchez, bour, dan murphy, kyle seager, trea, bryce, betts, marte, khris, merrifield, michael taylor. i have brantley, franco, healy, nick williams on the bench.
My prospects are tatis, touki, carter kieboom, mitch white, pache, kaprielian, yusniel.
I’ve been offered barretto, alford, and yuli gurriel for my merrifield and healy. I’ve been trying to get rid of healy anyway so i don’t care about him. I like merrifield for speed but i’m not expecting him to put up the same numbers he did last year. that being said it’s a downgrade from him to any of franco/nick williams/brantley (cause he’s never healthy). But the prospect value i’m getting is making me consider the deal . What do you think?
Thanks grey!
Don’t love it
So…. there is a woman sucking the teet of a cow in the ads for me today. This is the first time I’ve noticed that and feel like it needs to be mentioned.
HA, hey, it’s your demographic, is what they’re sayin’
@Grey: Life in the rolling green hills of Central PA…
Haha
Lindor, Freeman or JD to pair w/Scherzer? Leaning Freeman but OTS and Cram have me 2nd guessing for JD
JD’s great for 130 games, depends on waivers, ya know?
15 team league, feel like waivers will be pretty sparse
Those dongs though…
Sticking to the plan, nabbed Freeman, will look for an OF next round (Hope Yelich falls)
@MattTruss: Prob the right move. Didn’t know you had waivers, so OF is easier to find.
Yea, this isn’t NFBC, this is just a 15 teamer on FanTrax with a ton of industry folks. I’m in a league with Steve Gardner which is pretty dope. Wouldn’t have a chance to play with someone like that (excluding Grey and Rudy of course) otherwise. A little bit of a bigger stage, which is cool. The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational it’s called. Hopefully they keep doing it, the only req is you have some fantasy writing experience. Cram, we could always use a good DFS writer :)
@MattTruss: Nice, get after it man! I don’t know who Steve Gardner is. Haha. I don’t really follow specific industry people. I’m rooting for ya!
Ha. The prospect of that intrigues me.
I thought it might…Steve Gardner is the USA Today fantasy guy, been in the fantasy game for a long time, always in TOUT and LABR, etc.
@MattTruss: does past fantasy drivel count?
Probably, Mason put them on, you’ll have to see if you can get in next year’s if they do them.
@MattTruss: I know I can run circles around Son
BSOHL!!
Yeah, I have Freeman before JD
Yea, Rudy has JD up pretty high. I’m using a blend of Grey/Rudy/Me…GRUSS! Freaking Gardner who got Giancarlo right in front of me @10 goes Stanton/Lindor…drooool
@MattTruss: Damn, that’s a hell of a combo. That’s like the perfect storm of two guys falling as far as they possibly could in the same draft.
Gruss FTW!
Giancarlo should never last until 10, btw… Who was drafting 1st nine? Should be embarrassed
@Grey: There are 6 of those GFBI drafts going on right now. Stanton lasted to 10 in one where Son picked 11th; he lasted to 10 in another where Lance picked him; and he lasted to 11 in another.
@VinWins: OK, found some more drafts. At least 13. Stanton went #13 in one.
That makes no sense
There are 13 total: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SnoZXZ_-COF2sl3a0Nl5dkYyEjzJS7x1EJbcclLkQq8/edit#gid=0
People letting Stanton get out of the top ten should be disinvited
I HAVE STANTON #2!!! Ugh….
I don’t know who these people are, but that’s very late
Here’s my draft board so far if you care to click a link: https://www.fantrax.com/newui/fantasy/draftResultsPopup.go?leagueId=s1wi2zcsjctmhe7d&type=LIVE_ONLINE
Kershaw and Blackmon went in the top 6, so there’s that
@MattTruss: Verlander ahead of Sale. Correa and Votto ahead of Machado. Lunacy
@Cram it: The Votto and Correa picks are at least defensible. Verlander is a head scratcher.
Agreed
Yea…I should be able to lap 75% of this field.
Altuve/Gordon puke
@Grey: Agreed. That team is behind the curve in power and pitching now. Odd choice.
Yeah, trying to get too cute
Totally, that blew me away, so gross.
@MattTruss: Scherzer/Freeman is a nice start. Benintendi, Marte, or Dozier would be solid if they make it to your next pick. Carrasco and Jansen are interesting options too if you don’t want to deal with the pitching run that’ll probably be coming up soon.
Oh it will too, but it stung so bad taking a pitcher round 1 I think I’ll wait. Hoping Yelich fell, but he just went. Benny would be sweet.
@MattTruss: Saw that Dozier went. Yeah, Beni or Marte would fit well. I just mentioned the pitching options since I think the hitting in the 50-120 pick range is much stronger than the pitching. Doubling up on aces or grabbing a four cat asset like Jansen (even in limited reliever innings) would set you up well on that side and let others reach for the remaining pitching in that area. Depends on your viewpoint though.
Yea, I’ll go there with you, a lot of my hitting targets are in that range, gonna hope to pull a Rudy and land Felipe I think. We’ll see how the next couple picks go, but I’m noodling on Carrasco.
@MattTruss: Do your thing, man. Hope you kill it. I’m living vicariously through others since I haven’t drafted yet. Getting an itchy trigger finger.
Yeah, I’d prolly drop him 5 spots from my rankings due to 15 teams, but I don’t mind him…
@MattTruss: I’d go JD…the possible 10 more dongs offset the BA.
@MattTruss: Freeman.
Would you consider sorting your rankings by position for download and make it part of your Streaminator paywall? I’d sure like to have that cheat sheet. Thx
What if it were free: https://razzball.com/projections-grey
Just put position in top space you want to sort by
Soler power!
You took a pitcher, you wuss.
Yeah, mid-50s is around where I draft pitchers… Now 2 of 4 leagues with Yu, hope he doesn’t shatter my dreams…
@Grey:
He was in the mix for me on my last.
According to the war room, he had a 0% chance of making it back to me
@Grey: Yu went mid 50s? I was set to take him and he went 2 picks before me at 40.
Yeah, I took him… Then took Segura at pick 67
@Grey: Yelich/Darvish/Segura were your last three? That’s a solid trio.
Yeah, thanks! Little boring, but solid floors to go with my crazy Cody/Giancarlo orgasmic picks
@Grey: Yelich is what you’d probably call a Magoo pick. High avg and floor to mitigate the Bellinger risk.
Yeah, that’s the idea
Magoo gets to everyone eventually. He’s so convincingly practical!
hey boss
in my dynasty a manager offered me luke weaver for my gallo? was gonna maybe counter for Myers, Chris Taylor or Guerrero Jr
thoughts?
I’d take Myers
What do ya think. 8 teamer keeper. Severino at $4 or Springer at $8. Thanks
Springer
I’m in an AL only roto keeper league (25 MLB players, up to 5 MILB players). Can keep promoted minor leaguers 3 years after on opening day MLB roster. Trying to decide between Bo Bichette (high floor, moderately high ceiling) and Luis Robert (risky floor, potentially very high ceiling). Who would you take?
Bichette
@grey Need your help. I’m in an empire league 12 team 30 player rosters and we can keep all 30…I have buxton and am being offered Luis Robert and gore and a top pick next year-would you take that or keep buxton? Also, the guy is proposing he gives devers, Robert, gore, and a top pick next year for Jose Ramirez and buxton…would you take either of those deals or leave them both? Thanks sir
Hold
Andrus also loses too much of his value if they move him down in the lineup. His runs increased in 2017 mainly because of moving up in the lineup, but the Rangers have enough good hitters that he’s not guaranteed to stay in one of the first three lineup positions.
Yeah
thanks for everything man 1 more dynasty question
nola or bogaerts?
Depends on rest of team, apples/oranges
@Grey:
pretty sure i need pitching, my main guys are
hoskins, Odor, Devers, Lindor, Betts, Benintendi, Buxton, Rendon, Bogaerts, W Calhoun, Gallo
Syndergard, Castillo, Reyes, Stroman, Ohtani
safe to pull the trigger for nola?
Yup
https://mediadownloads.mlb.com/mlbam/mp4/2018/03/01/1879107183/1519932103570/asset_2500K.mp4
Looks like Ruben Sierra
@Grey:
Totes.
@Grey:
I know it’s for the greater good
BUT I so dislike having to type name/email
EVERY time!
I’m sorry, Grimey!
@Grey (or Rudy): in the online war room, is there a way to draft players for other teams (or remove players from the available players but not draft them to your team) as a means of keeping track of the available player pool?
whats up
wil myers or gallo in a keeper with no cost
12-team 5×5 league with 9 hitters, 7 pitchers, 5 bench, and 3 DL.
Should I take 4 starters and 7 relievers/closers (plus 1 bench hitter)? If so, how does that change your advice in the pairing article?
Archer
Bauer
Tanaka
Wacha
Rivero
Iglesias
Hader
+4 high upside RPs?
Is that too much of an investment in mid round picks? Looks like it’d be Rounds 1-5 hitters and Rounds 6-12 mostly pitchers.
Thanks!
Traded away Bogaerts straight up for Yelich. I already have Trea Turner as my SS, so its a solid deal for me receiving Yelich right?