Elly De La Cruz is basically a Grey guy. There’s been very few more Grey guys than this Grey guy. He’s basically Mr. Grey Guy. His sex appeal is oozing and I trip over myself when catching his highlights out of the corner of my eye. I hate that, because often I will run into the corner of a desk, so Elly hurts me often. My fear is he’s going to be hurting many of you. I worry about my boys and five girl readers. I don’t want you to be hurt. Long for me? Yes, but hurt? No, and you just read ‘but hurt’ hehe. Even if this sounds like Old Grey, this is not. This is a New Grey. Get a whiff of the New Grey smell! New Grey doesn’t go for a Mr. Grey Guy but goes for the safer early hitter pick. Mr. Grey Guys are, “Let’s try not to totally Mr. Bungle our early hitter picks.” Elly is the opposite of that. There’s nothing safe about him. So, what can we expect for Elly De La Cruz for 2024 fantasy baseball and what makes him overrated?
Elly De La Cruz’s Statcast chart from last year is so telling that I shouldn’t even need to be ‘telling’ you anything else, but I will, after I lay it on your peepers:
That shizz is wild. It’s like Joey Gallo with 50-steal speed. I went looking to past seasons (through 2000) for obvious comps and I came away with one guy. The one guy isn’t even really that analogous, but you know who I got? It’s kinda funny. Mini Donkey rises from the ashes! That’s right, Mark Reynolds in 2009. He went 44/24/.260. That year I wrote a sleeper post for him (I think, it was a while ago), and we all rode that Mini Donkey to victory.
There’s only two guys in the last twenty-three years that had a strikeout rate like Elly’s and had a .259 or better average. “Or better” is doing some lifting to make it sound good because it was just Reynolds hitting .260. The .259 guy was Willy Adames in 2020, which was in only 54 games, so not sure if we can even count that. It was with a .388 BABIP too. The average, uh, average with a strikeout rate like Elly’s? .210. We have a bunch of examples of guys hitting below-.200. Of the 18 players who had a strikeout rate like Elly since 2023, only one guy hit .230 or higher, and that was Trevor Story in Coors (.239). 15 guys hit for a terrible average. Why Elly De La Cruz doesn’t really have a straight comp though? His speed. He’s Fast Donkey.
Elly De La Cruz has 50-steal speed. His projections tell me people are expecting 40-ish. That’s fine. 20/40 plays. Speed is hard to project with the new rules. Saying a guy won’t steal as much because he just won’t be on base as much feels slightly dumb. Elly could be hit by ten pitches this year, steal 2nd, third and home, and steal 30 bags off of just those times on base, and have a line of 30/0/0/.000/30. If he does go 30/0/0/.000/30, I’ll tell ya what, that would be a guy with no obvious comp. The funny thing is next year, people would project him for slightly different variations of 30/0/0/.000/30. “Um, yes, this year I think Elly De La Cruz will go 35/1/1/.006/34.” That’s someone projecting Elly after he goes 30/0/0/.000/30.
So, if 20/40 has value, and maybe he hits .225, is that awful? Well, it’s not great, and he’s currently being drafted 23rd overall. WHAT?! I thought Elly was a Mr. Grey Guy, but apizzarently there’s at least one person in every league who is a Mr. More Grey Than Grey Guy. People are really thinking, “Hmm, Elly De La Cruz or Ozzie Albies?” That’s batshizz crazy. People are really taking Elly in front of Semien? Passing on Semien? Y’all snowballing? (Don’t google it if you don’t know what that means. It’s Grey working blue.) I will continue to be floored by how easy Elly hits bombs and steals home, but I will not be drafting him where he’s going this year. Stamp him schmohawk and don’t draft Fast Donkey.
