My first foray into dynasty baseball gifted me that infinite wild west feeling that really gets my geek out of bed in the morning.
“Wait, we get to keep everybody!?”
That’s me thinking 50 keepers = party time.
While the hitting side of this new infinity was coming into the focus, the pitching side was ducking away from the camera. If you’ve seen DEVS (or read a ton of quantum theory like the rest of us), there’s reference potential in here about how observing a particle makes is singular, while they remain multiple in their unobserved state.
Any revelation about how to forever handle fantasy pitching seems to fit this description.
It’s too simplistic to fade all the old guys in general but especially on the mound. Similarly fraught to dismiss all pitching prospects. These blanket strategies can work to some extent, but they can also lead to inflation for youngish middle tier arms like Jose Berrios and Noah Syndergaard. Arms like these seem to have long runs of usefulness ahead of them, so they’re certainly nice to have, but they’re unlikely to put you over the top in a given year, while older arms can do just that.
This winter I saw Wander Franco traded for Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer.
Typical 15-team, 50-keeper league. Both players know their stuff.
Which side you’d want might depend on your spot in a competitive cycle or just a general feeling about how you’d like to play dynasty baseball.
You could squint and see a world in which you replicate via streaming the impact of a Syndergaard or Berrios, but it feels impossible to replicate a Scherzer or Kershaw off the free agent wire. You might pick up a Montas or a Max Fried, but the hyper-elite WHIP guys are the rarest of birds, which is why it feels wrong to see Ryan Yarbrough down here in the hundreds. Part of that is pitching being weird and deep. Part of it is me fearing what’s coming to pitch in Tampa and Yarbrough’s fate should they trade him. Part is me maybe needing to move Yarbrough up a little.
Let’s get to the list. Drop me a line if you’re seeing an angle I’m not. This project remains under construction.
Thanks for reading! I’m @theprospectitch on Twitter, Reddit and Words with Friends.
I love the George Kirby ranking! Dude has control but I understand his secondaries are average. Drafted in 2019, hopefully the tutelage of an MLB organization will help him improve his stuff. If this guy can improve his secondaries even a little bit, he could be insane. I feel like a lot of pundits are under-estimating the impact of a major league team on a plus plus control guy like Kirby… hence why I like your ranking so much. The following season will tell a lot about Kirby.
Charlie Morton at #35 for 2021? I was under the impression he was retiring after the 2020 season, has he changed his mind on this now?
I read something that indicated he wasn’t certain about retirement.
https://www.tampabay.com/sports/rays/2020/02/11/is-rays-charlie-morton-retiring-after-2020/
From this Marc Topkin piece from Feb 11 2020:
“I don’t know,” Morton said Tuesday after a pre-spring workout. “If I throw really well and I feel really good, it’s going to be a tough decision. But if either one of those things happen, where I’m not pitching really well, or I’m not healthy, then, yeah, I’m not going to play.”
Sounds like if he’s healthy and good, he’ll give it another go.
Itch!!!!
Wow, so you ranked Alex Reyes at #103. Man, I’ve had this guy on my roster for 5 years now and my patience is running out. I’ve almost dumped him twice already. I haven’t thrown in the towel yet but only because I’ve invested so much time and frustration in him that I feel like I need to at least give him a chance to pitch again and show what he’s got.
And that brings me to your ranking. What do you see in Mr. Reyes that makes you believe he’s a bubble top 100 starter? I can only hope whatever you say, whatever you are seeing, is right. Sometimes I wish I had never bought into him. I need something good to remind me why I did. What says you?
Totally feel you there. Kind of a last hurrah ranking on Reyes.
If he doesn’t show something by early 2021, he just goes on being something of a tragedy.
I say that because I think the weed suspension kinda blew up his career. If he’d been in the majors at that time, he wouldn’t have been tested for a drug that’s legal in much of the union.
I can’t really think of another player who was similarly wrecked by the MiLB marijuana rules. I’m sure there are others, but the timing of Reyes’s was just devastating. His arm won’t stop short-circuiting.
Anyway I really want to see him pitch. At one point he had the best stuff in the minors. Kind of impossible to know if that’s still in there somewhere, but I’d be happy to pay the price of admission to find out.
Yeah, that’s kind of where I’m at.
I paid that price of admission years ago, and I’ve been paying for it ever since. This is his final chance with me. It’s put up or shut up time. He either shows the arm he once had or he’s off to Waiver Waiver Land.
Interesting perspective on the wacky weed angle. I’ve never thought of it that way. But it really does make a lot of sense and is kind of unfair in a ridiculous way.
I can make one comparison I think, sorta.
Remember Brien Taylor and his tragic fall from top Yankees prospect to beer truck delivery driver after getting his shoulder hurt in a bar room fight? Later he had a drug arrest among other things. Reyes, too was a #1 prospect and he has done drugs, broken his hand in a fight with a dugout wall and subsequently injured his pectoral muscles weeks later. He seems like Taylor 2.0. And we all know how that turned out.
Hey Itch, at this point, the quality pitching started thinning out incredibly fast at this point.
Good quote to keep in mind for trade purposes, “…but the hyper-elite WHIP guys are the rarest of birds…”. These are things that may seem second-nature to veteran fantasy owners, but not so much to the newer-ish baptized.
A couple of guys that feel a bit too low, to me, on the totem pole:
108. Yarbrough – you already mentioned you’re a bit torn. I feel he’s just ahead of that 85-87 group.
110. Stroman – just ahead of the 65-70 group.
118. Plesac – infront of 92-97 group.
137. Archer – I feel he has something left and a short season does him good (physically – but moreso, mentally). I’d also stick him infront of the 92-97 grouping. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if he pushes even further to the top.
All non-technical reasoning, just what my feel is around these guys. So take it with a giant grain of salt.
Thanks for putting this together, Itch.
Thanks, Jolt in Flow!
Those are all guys that kept catching my eye too. Moved em around a bit, but you’re right I should keep digging and tinkering.
Archer especially has been all over the place.
I want to believe in the new Pittsburgh group, but I have never thought Archer was a buy at cost. Might be over penalizing him for awfulness due to confirmation bias.
Plesac seemed to hit a wall last year, but I’m probably over penalizing that too. 4.95 ERA w 7.01 K/9 from August 12 through the end. Just 8 starts—could be overreacting—but I’m a little worried he just doesn’t have good enough stuff to hold off the contenders coming soon in Cleveland. Some of the issue there is I think Aaron Civale and Scott Moss are better, and I think they’d like to give Logan Allen a chance.
And long term, they’re a factory. Espino, Hankins, Lenny Torres, Luis Oviedo, even string bean Tristan McKenzie and 5’10 Eli Morgan.
Still, he’s definitely got his chance to lock in a long-term gig, and he’s a good gamble especially in a shortened 2020 where they’re unlikely to ask more than twice through the order.
Just curious why do you prefer george kirby or edward cabrera over sixto sanchez?
Jolt in Flow grabbed the key piece for his comment just below this one.
Elite command is necessary to become a hyper-elite WHIP guy, and Kirby might have the best command in the minors. And he doesn’t trade stuff to get it. I mean he’s no soft tosser despite never walking anyone.
yeah from this year (well 2019’s) draft class he sounds closest to having that bieber upside.
In my 14 team h2h dynasty league I was offered Salvador Perez and Jon Grey for Luke Voit and Sean Murphy? Not really a huge blockbuster, but am I getting a good return?
Also I might be able to trade Murphy and Patino for Luis Castillo. Is this a better deal or stick with what I have?
c sean murphy
1b max muncy
2b ozzie albies
3b rafael devers
ss bo bichette
lf juan soto
cf ronald acuna
rf austin meadows
util yuli gurriel
bn cj cron
bn luke voit
bn omar narvaez
na andrew vaughn
na robert puason
na luis matos
na jeter downs
na julio rodriguez
na erick pena
sp brandon woodruff
sp julio urias
sp max scherzer
rp scott oberg
rp ryan pressly
rp brandon kintzler
p patrick corbin
p alex wood
bn kevin gausman
bn carlos rodon
bn deivi garcia
bn sixto sanchez
bn edward cabrera
bn nathan eovaldi
bn matt shoemaker
na luis patino
I would definitely trade Murphy and Patino for Castillo. Do it while it’s on the table.
I agree w Harley here.
I’d snap that Castillo offer up.
Btw George Kirby is available in this league. Who do you recommend I drop to pick him up?
20 team keep 6-9 with QS/holds/XBH/OPS added roto. short starting rosters, 1400 innings max (that was set to 162, it’ll be commensurately down of course)
C kraken (K)
1B E5
2B wong
SS treat urner (K)
3B vlad (K)
OF (3) alvarez (K), gallo (K), h.dozier (1B/3B)
util (1) puig
BN: profar (2B/OF)
NA (2):puig (here till signed), vaughn (will be a keeper next year)
SP (probably want 7 of these in season): glasnow (K), luzardo (K), lynn, cueto, gibson
RP (max 5): giles, pressly, hudson, duffey
so i got 1 more RP to go, 2 more SP to go. the level of SP out there has weakened such to think i might want to go a prospect SP with this year value. biggest names left are: d.garcia, patino, i.anderson, k.wright (pearson/howard/mize/manning/skubal/gore/whitley/mckay either drafted or kept already). can stash one of these in NA slot, either BN puig till he’s signed, worst case scenario stick puig in NA slot, drop this prospect pitcher. will still likely get at least one of pab lop/gausman and the like with other pick and off WW’ers. which of those’ll you think will have the most this year value. i doubt i end up keeping of those, but i guess if kraken completely sucks i could keep one over him.
see near bottom of last post’s comments you thought deivi likely for bullpen this year, does this make k.wright the most likely left of this group for this year useful innings?
ed cab also out there, and he’s probably less likely to be drafted/obtained than the ones i listed.
Oh nice I’d take Ed Cab over Wright, too.
But do think Wright is more likely to get innings this year.
I do think Wright is most likely to get 2020 innings but would prefer Patino from the group.
He’ll be in the running for top prospect arm in the game over the off-season.
yeah i figured his upside is best here from what i’ve read from you/others and your overall list. if we kept more people guys like him and really all of these would’ve been gone many rounds ago. here keep 6-9, but obv trade value in them if they bump up. deivi went just now.
and liberatore