So here we are somewhere in Snape’s cauldron among our top hundred divining the future of the outfield position in fantasy baseball.
Wild things have happened already. I knew it might get weird when I saw the ghost of Shoeless Joe while I was watching Parasite.
Sorry, Sev: while we were watching Parasite.
The other day, I got asked about Luis Matos and wound up mentioning Ronald Acuna Jr.
Then dug deeper down into that rabbit hole and ate the mushrooms that made the idea grow.
That was after people got mad at me for some inadvertent Trout shade. I blame Christian Yelich for being better than him at roto.
Hmm, what else?
Oh yeah there was that day I saved cousin Dudley from two huge floaty randos at the playground.
Before we case the basement to see what’s behind the walls, let me say something I haven’t.
I think you should try to get Hedbert Perez in your dynasty leagues.
I’ve been thinking we should talk about this for a long time, but I get locked into projects and moods, you know? I don’t always make time for us to talk.
In this post, you’ll likely come away with the idea that I think Luis Matos is a must-own player at his likely cost across our game. That’s true. But I think Hedbert Perez is right there with him. We might still be a few months ahead of the wave on him. Same for Heriberto Hernandez. These are must-haves for me.
Where I don’t get them, I’m afraid I’m going to regret it.
Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon, and for the rest of my life.
Okay, that’s that, I think. I’ll paste the list here then more words at the bottom.
|Rank 4/26||Rank 4/22||Player||Age||Team|
|1||1||Ronald Acuña Jr.||22||ATL|
Thoughts from the reddit thread:
Luis over Eloy. How confident are you on that holding up?
I dealt Eloy for LuBob last summer in a 20 team dynasty. Got back a 2nd round FYPD pick kicker in the deal but was ready to do it straight up then (June 2019).
Benny Jetss asks:
I’d put him just after Mookie but would be wondering how long that will hold if Yordan is his 2019 self for the foreseeable future . . . how long Mookie will run and where he’ll land in FA.
*As you can see this is part of the past now, but the possibility of universal DH has me thinking about other non-outfielders who might pick up some eligibility. It goes without saying that Kevin Crons gain value on a DH-everywhere planet, but he and others like him (Edwin Rios, to pull another name from Dan Richards’ exit velocity sleeper piece “Best Cups of Coffee”) might gain some surprise eligibility in these lower-bar leagues.
This is by far the highest I’ve seen Heriberto Hernandez ranked. Any reasoning behind that? The numbers are crazy but not many people seem to be putting stock into him.
How can they justify Yelich ahead of Trout?
Same age, and Trout has a consistent track record of outperforming Yelich.
For starters, I looked to the immediate past.
Trout wasn’t real close to Yelich in 5×5 roto value last season.
They were closer the year before, but Yelich had 228 R+RBI and Trout had 180. That’s an enormous gap.
Yelich also beat him in batting average .326 to .312.
Last year’s BA split was .329 to .291—another monstrous advantage to Yelich’s teams.
Trout caught and passed him in R+RBI 214 to 197
but stole just 11 bags to Yelich’s 30.
Across two full seasons with similar PA totals, Yelich has been the better roto player, and it’s not super close. I mention in the intro it felt weird to rank Trout 3rd, but ours is game of numbers not names, and unless you’re in an OBP league and perhaps even if you are, Yelich has earned the edge. Certainly helps that his park is elite for lefty bats, but that ain’t changing anytime soon. Also might hurt Trout a little that Joe Maddon’s in town. He’s not big into the stolen base, and it seems Trout has soured some on running anyway. Plus Yelich was 30 for 32 in stolen base attempts and has been incredibly efficient there for three straight seasons.
Dude knows when to take his bases.
(edited to clarify my original “no room for Puig?” troll-esque comment)
Anyway, perhaps I should clarify somewhere in the lede that it’s a 5×5 roto list.
I lean toward the math that suggests 1 stolen base = 3 home runs in approximate roto value in the current paradigm.
Which is just not how points leagues operate.
In dynasty it’s scary for me to see a guy get ignored completely in free agency. Suggests he could be nearing his last life on the job market, mostly bc so few teams prioritize winning in the near term vs. building long-term, controllable assets.
anyway. back to your list. good stuff. Roto is a foreign language to me, but your top 50 definitely passes the sniff test
I’m dynasty I’m taking the young top prospects over Puig everytime
like yeah, I’d trade him for Adell/Robert/Julio/Kelenic… but some of these marginal Top 100 prospects???
Not sure which prospects you’re referencing, but if you have Puig and can get Corbin Carroll for him, I think you’ll be happy you did.
Not loving my tone here. Should’ve edited. But I mean it insofar as Puig is heading one direction and Carroll the other. Plus you can get something along with Carroll in most leagues, I think, and then pick up a FA outfielder who’s not all that net-net different than Puig. Maybe not today, but when the games start, roster spots have incredible value for speculation and streaming buys. (Cough cough Aquino cough). In traditional dynasty, MLB free agents are available at most positions most of the time, and new players are coming into opportunities most of the time. MLB spots get tight when you’re contending, so something like Puig for Carroll and a pick can be a great play. Especially if you’re paying close enough attention to stream hot hitters (with the help of the Stream-O-Nator, perhaps?).
Our final thoughts come courtesy of readrainbow:
Lots of faith in Soler
Got better as pitchers adjusted to him and circled him as the out they needed in that lineup.
Got better as they tried to get him to chase in various ways high low in and out.
If this version of Soler has a weakness, pitchers are struggling to exploit it.
Thanks for reading! Stay safe out there. Next 50 outfielders coming in hot!
I’m @theprospectitch on Twitter and reddit.
Oh and PS: I’m going to try and add some recommendations from time to time.
The End of the F***ing World on Netflix
Spy on Hulu (the one with Darren Boyd)
ZeroZeroZero on Prime
Spy is hilarious and fast.
ZZZ is just 70-grade stuff across the board.
The End of the F***ing World is an impressive blend of momentum, exigency, character, deflection and fun. Not in real time of course. The end of the world is bad. But the show. The show is excellent.