So here we are somewhere in Snape’s cauldron among our top hundred divining the future of the outfield position in fantasy baseball.
Wild things have happened already. I knew it might get weird when I saw the ghost of Shoeless Joe while I was watching Parasite.
Sorry, Sev: while we were watching Parasite.
The other day, I got asked about Luis Matos and wound up mentioning Ronald Acuna Jr.
Then dug deeper down into that rabbit hole and ate the mushrooms that made the idea grow.
That was after people got mad at me for some inadvertent Trout shade. I blame Christian Yelich for being better than him at roto.
Hmm, what else?
Oh yeah there was that day I saved cousin Dudley from two huge floaty randos at the playground.
Before we case the basement to see what’s behind the walls, let me say something I haven’t.
I think you should try to get Hedbert Perez in your dynasty leagues.
I’ve been thinking we should talk about this for a long time, but I get locked into projects and moods, you know? I don’t always make time for us to talk.
In this post, you’ll likely come away with the idea that I think Luis Matos is a must-own player at his likely cost across our game. That’s true. But I think Hedbert Perez is right there with him. We might still be a few months ahead of the wave on him. Same for Heriberto Hernandez. These are must-haves for me.
Where I don’t get them, I’m afraid I’m going to regret it.
Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon, and for the rest of my life.
Okay, that’s that, I think. I’ll paste the list here then more words at the bottom.
| Rank 4/26 | Rank 4/22 | Player | Age | Team |
| 1 | 1 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | 22 | ATL |
| 2 | 2 | Christian Yelich | 28 | MIL |
| 3 | 3 | Mike Trout | 28 | LAA |
| 4 | 4 | Cody Bellinger | 24 | LAD |
| 5 | 5 | Juan Soto | 21 | WAS |
| 6 | 6 | Mookie Betts | 27 | LAD |
| 7 | 7 | Yordan Alvarez | 22 | HOU |
| 8 | 8 | Austin Meadows | 24 | TB |
| 9 | 9 | Luis Robert | 22 | CHW |
| 10 | 10 | Bryce Harper | 27 | PHI |
| 11 | 11 | Victor Robles | 22 | WAS |
| 12 | 12 | Eloy Jimenez | 23 | CHW |
| 13 | 13 | Jorge Soler | 28 | KC |
| 14 | 14 | Aaron Judge | 27 | NYY |
| 15 | 15 | Jo Adell | 21 | LAA |
| 16 | 16 | Starling Marte | 31 | ARI |
| 17 | 17 | JD Martinez | 32 | BOS |
| 18 | 18 | Joey Gallo | 26 | TEX |
| 19 | 19 | George Springer | 30 | HOU |
| 20 | 20 | CJ Abrams | 19 | SD |
| 21 | 21 | Julio Rodriguez | 19 | SEA |
| 22 | 22 | Giancarlo Stanton | 30 | NYY |
| 23 | 23 | Dylan Carlson | 21 | STL |
| 24 | 24 | Ramon Laureano | 25 | OAK |
| 25 | 25 | Jasson Dominguez | 17 | NYY |
| 26 | 27 | Byron Buxton | 26 | MIN |
| 27 | 28 | Charlie Blackmon | 33 | COL |
| 28 | 29 | Kyle Schwarber | 27 | CHC |
| 29 | 26 | Michael Conforto | 27 | NYM |
| 30 | 31 | Jarred Kelenic | 20 | SEA |
| 31 | 30 | Oscar Mercado | 25 | CLE |
| 32 | 32 | Kyle Tucker | 23 | HOU |
| 33 | 35 | Franmil Reyes | 24 | CLE |
| 34 | 41 | Nick Castellanos | 28 | CIN |
| 35 | 33 | Oneil Cruz | 21 | PIT |
| 36 | 34 | Kristian Robinson | 19 | ARI |
| 37 | 36 | Bryan Reynolds | 25 | PIT |
| 38 | 38 | Andrew Benintendi | 25 | BOS |
| 39 | 39 | Lourdes Gurriel | 26 | TOR |
| 40 | 40 | Eddie Rosario | 28 | MIN |
| 41 | 44 | Willie Calhoun | 25 | TEX |
| 42 | 42 | Marcell Ozuna | 29 | ATL |
| 43 | 43 | David Dahl | 26 | COL |
| 44 | 46 | Corbin Carroll | 19 | ARI |
| 45 | 47 | Trent Grisham | 23 | SD |
| 46 | 45 | Trey Mancini | 28 | BAL |
| 47 | 48 | Brennen Davis | 20 | CHC |
| 48 | 37 | Tommy Pham | 32 | SD |
| 49 | 49 | Michael Brantley | 32 | HOU |
| 50 | 50 | Max Kepler | 27 | MIN |
| 51 | 51 | Nick Senzel | 24 | CIN |
| 52 | 52 | Alex Verdugo | 23 | BOS |
| 53 | 53 | Luis Matos | 18 | SF |
| 54 | 54 | Nick Solak | 25 | TEX |
| 55 | 55 | Trevor Larnach | 23 | MIN |
| 56 | 56 | Zac Veen | 18 | ?? |
| 57 | 62 | Heriberto Hernandez | 20 | TEX |
| 58 | 58 | Teoscar Hernandez | 27 | TOR |
| 59 | 60 | Avisail Garcia | 28 | MIL |
| 60 | 61 | Mark Canha | 31 | OAK |
| 61 | 63 | Sam Hilliard | 26 | COL |
| 62 | 57 | Garrett Mitchell | 21 | ?? |
| 63 | 64 | Aaron Hicks | 30 | NYY |
| 64 | 59 | Yasiel Puig | 29 | ?? |
| 65 | 66 | Erick Pena | 17 | KC |
| 66 | 69 | Nomar Mazara | 24 | CHW |
| 67 | 65 | Austin Hays | 24 | BAL |
| 68 | 67 | Andrew McCutchen | 33 | PHI |
| 69 | 68 | Wil Myers | 29 | SD |
| 70 | 71 | Riley Greene | 19 | DET |
| 71 | 70 | Yoshi Tsutsugo | 28 | TB |
| 72 | 72 | Drew Waters | 21 | ATL |
| 73 | 73 | Cristian Pache | 21 | ATL |
| 74 | 74 | Mallex Smith | 26 | SEA |
| 75 | 75 | Alek Thomas | 19 | ARI |
| 76 | 76 | Hedbert Perez | 17 | MIL |
| 77 | 77 | Mitch Haniger | 29 | SEA |
| 78 | 79 | Gregory Polanco | 28 | PIT |
| 79 | 80 | Adam Eaton | 31 | WAS |
| 80 | 81 | Ian Happ | 25 | CHC |
| 81 | 78 | Randy Arozarena | 25 | TB |
| 82 | 82 | AJ Pollock | 32 | LAD |
| 83 | 83 | David Peralta | 32 | ARI |
| 84 | 84 | Mike Yastrzemski | 29 | SF |
| 85 | 85 | Kyle Lewis | 24 | SEA |
| 86 | 86 | Monte Harrison | 24 | MIA |
| 87 | 88 | Aristides Aquino | 26 | CIN |
| 88 | 91 | Lorenzo Cain | 34 | MIL |
| 89 | 92 | Gilberto Jimenez | 19 | BOS |
| 90 | 93 | Jaylin Davis | 25 | SF |
| 91 | 87 | Jesse Winker | 26 | CIN |
| 92 | 94 | Randall Grichuck | 28 | TOR |
| 93 | 89 | Justin Upton | 32 | LAA |
| 94 | 90 | Shogo Akiyama | 32 | CIN |
| 95 | 95 | Franchy Cordero | 25 | SD |
| 96 | 96 | Jesus Sanchez | 22 | TB |
| 97 | 97 | Taylor Trammell | 22 | SD |
| 98 | 99 | JJ Bleday | 22 | MIA |
| 99 | 101 | Heston Kjerstad | 21 | ?? |
| 100 | 108 | Seth Brown | 27 | OAK |
Thoughts from the reddit thread:
Jacob_Bob asks:
Luis over Eloy. How confident are you on that holding up?
I dealt Eloy for LuBob last summer in a 20 team dynasty. Got back a 2nd round FYPD pick kicker in the deal but was ready to do it straight up then (June 2019).
Benny Jetss asks:
I’d put him just after Mookie but would be wondering how long that will hold if Yordan is his 2019 self for the foreseeable future . . . how long Mookie will run and where he’ll land in FA.
*As you can see this is part of the past now, but the possibility of universal DH has me thinking about other non-outfielders who might pick up some eligibility. It goes without saying that Kevin Crons gain value on a DH-everywhere planet, but he and others like him (Edwin Rios, to pull another name from Dan Richards’ exit velocity sleeper piece “Best Cups of Coffee”) might gain some surprise eligibility in these lower-bar leagues.
hum_babe asks:
This is by far the highest I’ve seen Heriberto Hernandez ranked. Any reasoning behind that? The numbers are crazy but not many people seem to be putting stock into him.
alwaysmyfault wonders:
How can they justify Yelich ahead of Trout?
Same age, and Trout has a consistent track record of outperforming Yelich.
Fair points.
For starters, I looked to the immediate past.
Trout wasn’t real close to Yelich in 5×5 roto value last season.
They were closer the year before, but Yelich had 228 R+RBI and Trout had 180. That’s an enormous gap.
Yelich also beat him in batting average .326 to .312.
Last year’s BA split was .329 to .291—another monstrous advantage to Yelich’s teams.
Trout caught and passed him in R+RBI 214 to 197
but stole just 11 bags to Yelich’s 30.
Across two full seasons with similar PA totals, Yelich has been the better roto player, and it’s not super close. I mention in the intro it felt weird to rank Trout 3rd, but ours is game of numbers not names, and unless you’re in an OBP league and perhaps even if you are, Yelich has earned the edge. Certainly helps that his park is elite for lefty bats, but that ain’t changing anytime soon. Also might hurt Trout a little that Joe Maddon’s in town. He’s not big into the stolen base, and it seems Trout has soured some on running anyway. Plus Yelich was 30 for 32 in stolen base attempts and has been incredibly efficient there for three straight seasons.
Dude knows when to take his bases.
redditnym123456789:
(edited to clarify my original “no room for Puig?” troll-esque comment)
Anyway, perhaps I should clarify somewhere in the lede that it’s a 5×5 roto list.
I lean toward the math that suggests 1 stolen base = 3 home runs in approximate roto value in the current paradigm.
Which is just not how points leagues operate.
In dynasty it’s scary for me to see a guy get ignored completely in free agency. Suggests he could be nearing his last life on the job market, mostly bc so few teams prioritize winning in the near term vs. building long-term, controllable assets.
redditnym123456789:
anyway. back to your list. good stuff. Roto is a foreign language to me, but your top 50 definitely passes the sniff test
Yankees777:
I’m dynasty I’m taking the young top prospects over Puig everytime
redditnym123456789:
like yeah, I’d trade him for Adell/Robert/Julio/Kelenic… but some of these marginal Top 100 prospects???
Not sure which prospects you’re referencing, but if you have Puig and can get Corbin Carroll for him, I think you’ll be happy you did.
Not loving my tone here. Should’ve edited. But I mean it insofar as Puig is heading one direction and Carroll the other. Plus you can get something along with Carroll in most leagues, I think, and then pick up a FA outfielder who’s not all that net-net different than Puig. Maybe not today, but when the games start, roster spots have incredible value for speculation and streaming buys. (Cough cough Aquino cough). In traditional dynasty, MLB free agents are available at most positions most of the time, and new players are coming into opportunities most of the time. MLB spots get tight when you’re contending, so something like Puig for Carroll and a pick can be a great play. Especially if you’re paying close enough attention to stream hot hitters (with the help of the Stream-O-Nator, perhaps?).
Our final thoughts come courtesy of readrainbow:
Lots of faith in Soler
Got better as pitchers adjusted to him and circled him as the out they needed in that lineup.
Got better as they tried to get him to chase in various ways high low in and out.
If this version of Soler has a weakness, pitchers are struggling to exploit it.
Thanks for reading! Stay safe out there. Next 50 outfielders coming in hot!
I’m @theprospectitch on Twitter and reddit.
Oh and PS: I’m going to try and add some recommendations from time to time.
The End of the F***ing World on Netflix
Spy on Hulu (the one with Darren Boyd)
ZeroZeroZero on Prime
Spy is hilarious and fast.
ZZZ is just 70-grade stuff across the board.
The End of the F***ing World is an impressive blend of momentum, exigency, character, deflection and fun. Not in real time of course. The end of the world is bad. But the show. The show is excellent.
Love the honesty and self-reflection, which are always welcome in the fantasy world. In a points league, which OF would you for Heriberto? Brandon Marsh, Hunter Bishop, or Jared Oliva?
*drop* for Heriberto
Thanks JPHanson!
I’m cool with dropping any of them for Heriberto, but I’d probably try to shop em some first. They’ve all got some trade value in most, I’d think. I’d Just take whatever I can get, to some extent, preferably future picks to extend the roster.
Leaning Marsh if I’ve gotta make the call quicker than that.
wow itch great stuff here,ill be studying it deeper later
Heriberto(s)? You sure it’s not just another …bertos taco shop in SoCal ?
Harry Berto’s Special Sauce
Okay, but didn’t you love Parasite?
Yeah I think it’s safe to say I loved Parasite.
Can’t think of anything quite like it.
Pretty sure I’m gonna watch it again.
When rich dude holds his nose grabbing the keys . . . just incredible stuff.
Love your stuff Itch. Always informative and entertaining. I wouldn’t dare trade Julio Rodriguez for Puig. It’s clear the word is out across the league on him: “He’s a cancer. Stay away.”
It’s almost as if Puig has become the pariah to MLB that Colin Kaepernick is to the NFL.
Ok, maybe not quite that far. But you get the sentiment: A bad attitude is not conducive for employment.
Any thoughts on Ozark? Everyone tells me to watch it. But I’m holding out for a couple more seasons so I can stream it all at once. What full series would you recommend I watch in the meantime?
Thanks Harley!
I agree on the Puig read–a combination of factors, I’m sure, but one has to be some GMs and managers would probably just rather go another route if they see one that’s a little similar. Especially when the $ gets involved.
I do have some Ozark thoughts. The quick point I need to make is that season 3 is transcendent. Truly high-wire, 80-grade entertainment at times and a solid 70 pretty much throughout.
When I dropped in to resume and watch season 3, I discovered I hadn’t finished season 2. Just a couple episodes left. It’s not common for me to bounce 12+ hours into a story, but I think it was just a little bleak for my day-to-day life at the time.
Not so when season 3 hit.
Season 1 was good, quick and different enough to keep you engaged. Ruth is a revelation, and I suspect Julia Garner (who plays Ruth) is a big reason Netflix pulled Waco out of the hopper. Smart synergy on their part. Andrea Risebroough, too, who’s on fire in ZeroZeroZero, is in Waco, come to think of it.
Anyway, season 2 kinda lost me a little on first watch, or so the evidence would suggest, but I don’t remember it as bad. Just a lot of dark contrasted against the tone of spending most days with a baby girl. And the end of that season was propulsive and lead well into season three, which, as I say, makes the whole thing worth admission.
Just awesome acting. Tight writing and editing. Every shot matters to the story they’re telling. Loved it.
Yeah, I’m going to have to see what this is all about.
I got into Breaking Bad during season 3. It was so good, I stopped it. And went and got the first two seasons on DVD just to catch up, then resumed where I had left off. I’m going to start Ozark probably next. Might go with Better Call Saul first though. It’s a tough call.
Appreciate the input! Will definitely watch soon!
Any of these guys you’d drop for Heriberto or Hedbert?
Mario Feliciano
Korey Lee
Ronnier Quintero
Bryce Ball
Kevin Cron
Ji Hwan Bae
Alexander Mojica
Ryan Vilade
Eduarqui Fernandez
Monte Harrison
Niko Hulsizer
Barron Lora
Luis Matos
Ismael Mena
Yohendrick Pinango
Canaan Smith
I’d like to keep Hulsizer, see anything you like there?
I’d drop Eduarqui and Korey Lee.
Maybe they get scooped. Maybe they fall through faab and land on the track-em list.
Hi The Itch, Jacob_Bob here.
Similar to the Eloy/Luis Q. What’s the word on S. Marte over JDM? There is only a year difference between them, and JD is the vastly superior hitter. I actually don’t really rate Marte that much. As soon as his wheels come off he will become a poor man’s 2-hit Whit, but with 1 hit. A 1-hit Marte.
Hi, Jacob_Bob!
Funny you should mention him because I keep eyeing him against the players below, specifically JD and Gallo.
Arizona should fight the effects of aging on the bat . . . might even be looking at a career year in 2021 . . . but he’s not getting faster, I’d think.
Although, are they testing for PED’s at the moment? . . . asking for a friend . .
I’ll keep thinking it over. As is he’s a five-category asset. Lo Cain was still a third rounder at 33, but he brought buyers a loss at the price. Safe speed tends to hold value, and Cain’s not the player Marte is.
Would be a good poll. JD or Marte in dynasty. Same for Gallo or Marte. Maybe just a three-way poll?
If I’m contending, I think I want Marte. Unless I have enough speed, in which case I want JD.
If I’m not in contention yet, I think I want Gallo in case he takes off this year.
I feel that JD represents such a nice floor—be it a 4 cat floor, but high level in those cats (maybe not runs). I also feel like JD is someone who can be a cornerstone of a contending team for the next 3-5 years.
Yes, Starling gets you 5 cats, but I don’t appreciate Marte enough, maybe, as I think his floor is that of a mid rounder. You gave me something good to consider, nonetheless, as I will take an extra interest in his performances in AZ for the season and behind—AND maybe you are right in regards to looking at things about being competitive this season or down the road.
Being honest, I would prefer to have someone like Bryce that is a high level 4 cat guy with speed. Gallo could be that too with maybe 8-11 steals.
Glad you brought up Joey G. Love the guy. I own him nowhere, but not for a lack of trying. He’s someone I would kill for in a dynasty or keeper.
Sorry about those meatballs dissing your Yelich stance, btw. That place epitomizes groupthink, and you are damned if you don’t. I prolly delete my app every other month, haha. But for real, I thought you gave a truly compelling argument(and this is coming from a Trout guy), but the weird mentality there 9 times out of 10 defeats sound reasoning.
That totally tracks—the regular deleting of that app. Seems a bit like Twitter in that there’s just not much room for nuance . . . and a lot of room for groupthink as you said.
Thanks for the kind words about the Yelich case!
I don’t own a Joey G share either. Why has he forsaken us!!??
Check out I’m Not OK With This, if you liked End of The F**ing Word.
The episodes are super short and still deliver a lot of info. Moves fast, no fluff, it’s refreshing.
Sorry I didn’t get to ya with this question before you put this out. Belli still qualifies for OF, doesn’t he?
Wow. Never mind. I don’t know how I missed him.
Still Check the show out though.
Thanks! I’ll check that out!
I remember when it came out I meant to see it but never did.
No time like the present!
Love the work Itch. Been following your rankings for my dynasty league and I scoop Matos and Heriberto.
I have seen nothing on Hedbert, nobody has him on its top 30 and I cannot find a report on him. Nothing. What kind of player is he and what makes you think he is going to be special ? I have the choice between Hedbert, Ethan Hankins and Thanaj Thomas and leaning towards Thomas.
Thanks !
Thanks, dill!
I was looking for Hedbert video, but it must’ve been Twitter or insta or something bc I can’t find it.
And yeah not many words out there about him, but he’s a tooled up, physically mature son of a big leaguer. Never know how he’ll react as he sees advanced velo and spin, but the topside is elite. I’d trade either of those arms for him.
hitter tron on the hitters. stream-nator is the pitching only bot.
stream-o-nator
I’m super excited to see where Kristian Robinson lands. I had both him and Julio at one point but I was offered Wander Franco and Mike Trout for Juan Soto and Julio Rodriguez…hint I accepted that trade offer. I am digging on a 30 homer 15 steal guy from Kristian if everything goes according to plan.
K-Rob is one of my faves.
Went back and forth a bit on whether I’d trade him for the guys in his range here. Moved Castellanos above him last week but would be stuck on that trade for a while.
This slightly trimmed down version of Robinson we saw at the Bahamian HR derby could be quite the base thief to go along with his plus plus power.
NL only with OBP over AVG, net steals over steals, total bases added, QS over wins, holds added. slow draft coming to an end shortly, 2 more RP to grab.
C: suzuki
1B: freeman
2B: lux
SS: a.rosario
3B: mcneil (2B/OF)
MI: wong (2B)
CI: votto (1B)
OF (4): harper, pham, mcclutchin’, brocktune
util (1) grisham (OF)
BN: camargo (SS/3B/OF)
NA (1) bohm
SP (will stream the 8th slot after draft when bohm gets slotted): stressbird, urias, musgrove, gausman, cueto, pab lop, lindblom
RP (4): raise the church, watson
options: here i got decent saves amount (was planning to go treinen/lorenzen but they just went, lorenzen esp seemed smart to backup church, but made sure i didn’t have to gamble i got like w.miley instead of lindblom):
– crick (might be kela’s backup or rico rod or upside of al burdi),
– helsley/brebbia (gotta think helsley has the upside here, and a.miller had some sort of nerve thing he didn’t even know what to make of, doubt that just goes away from time off alone),
– gott/t.rogers (my own SF backup plan)
– stammen (for some reason the rater thinks he’ll have a lot of holds, but he’s behind both of pom/pagan)
– j.guerra/rondon (ginkel is gone, but these 2 both listed ahead of him anyway, and new signings)
– stanek/y.garcia (everybody round here presumes this is stanek uber alles)
– wick (seems to be just str up 2nd in line at CUBS, albeit rater doesn’t love him),
– morgan/t.hunter/j.alvarez (rater really doesn’t like these guys, nobody else does either, but somebody is 2nd in line on a good team here, and why is rater still showing sera anthony as if he’s actually playing still anyway)
i know grey has got tons of SF guy shares, but those are i think in saves only leagues. here the handcuffing ain’t bad idea, but i almost certainly don’t want 3/4 of my bullpen to be from one crappy team. 10 teamer here.
you might be too new to know WTF a “brocktune” is. it’s g.polanco. maybe 4ish years ago somebody awesome around here had the idea to make us up a nickname for us super nerds that were spazzing out on g.polanco. the idea came from this awesome SNL skit from it’s heyday:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olZrycBSiyk