Yu Darvish likes to throw strikeouts, and I like to put him in my lineups. Darvish also likes pitching at the Rangers ballpark. When pitching at home in his career, Darvish has held hitters to a .279 wOBA in 310 innings. Batters have not been able get a hold of the pitches he has been throwing. Hitters have a swinging strike rate of 13.2% (career high), an out of zone swing rate of 31.3% (career high), and a zone contact rate of 80% (career low). Darvish is feeling it! He has gone over 6 innings in his last 4 starts, and has thrown 34 K with only 2 walks. In that four game span he has averaged 24 fantasy points. With the Tigers in town, Darvish should continue to pile on the strikeouts, as the Tigers have a strikeout rate of 21.6% vs RHP. Tigers are throwing out Anibal Sanchez, which should help Darvish earn the win. And with that I give you the rest of my DFS picks…
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Homer Bailey, SP: $8,600 – Both the Red and the Brewers have been brutal this season. I lean toward Bailey in DFS because of the Brewers 25.7 K% vs RHP. The Brew Crew loves to swing away. Jimmy Nelson will be starting for the Brewers and has been awful in his last few appearances.
Sean Manaea, SP: $6,800 – He started off the season as someone to stack against, but in his last 7 starts he owns an ERA of 3.53. He has a tough competitor in the Mariners, but gets to pitch in his pitcher friendly home park. Lucky for him, the Mariners have hit better against RHP and strike out more against LHP. Manaea has above average swinging strike rate of 11.5% and should get some Mariners batters to chase.
Travis s’Arnaud, C: $2,900 – Paul Clemens major league resume does not look pretty. In 63 innings, RHB have a .398 wOBA and 2.57 HR/9.
Joey Votto, 1B: $5,000 – As mentioned in the Bailey post, Jimmy Nelson has not been good. In 177 career innings, lefties have a .358 wOBA off him. Votto has 4 straight games with 10 points.
Jonathan Schoop, 2B, $3,300 – Matt Cain has thrown shutouts in his last two starts against the Nationals, but I’m not buying it. Schoop is always a favourite of mine in tournaments, with his multi-homer potential.
Danny Valencia, 3B: $4,100 – Over the last few seasons Valencia has discovered how to hit RHP, but throughout his career he has always hit LHP. Today he gets a rookie LHP in Ariel Miranda, which should be no issue.
Carlos Correa, SS: $3,900 – Lirano has a nasty slider that can strike out a lot of batters, but he also gives up walks and home runs. When I can get Correa for under 4K, I have a hard time passing that up.
Carlos Beltran, OF: $4,300 – With Anibal as the opposing pitcher and Fielder retiring, Beltran will pay his respects buy going deep.
Nomar Mazara, OF: $3,800 – I like him more if he gets to bat in the 2 spot, but still a solid option if he is down at 7, because the Rangers get to tee off against Anibal.
Taylor Motter, OF/SS: $3,400 – He has been inconsistent in his major league appearances, but has seen success against LHP. Things haven’t been good for CC, as he owns a 6.10 ERA in his last 10 starts.
I’m Only Happy When it Rains
Keep an eye on the weather reports today, as several games may be affected. There is a 40-50% chance of thunder storms in Boston and Cleveland. Both New York games are around 40%, and in Milwaukee it is nearly 60%.
Doing Lines in Vegas
No games crack a total of 10 today, but DET/TEX and ARI/BOS are in at 9.5. There are two low games of 7.5 in the ATL/WAS and BAL/SF games, and the rest of the games fall in between. There are a couple aces pitching and earning heavy favorites. Strasburg and the Nationals lead the way at -265, followed by Price and the Red Sox at -250. The last big favorite of the day is Darvish and the Rangers at -195.