There are 14 games on the slate Friday night, and four of them are over an eight run number for the night. Also, there are no games less than seven runs tonight. This bodes well for DFS players who want a fat slice of those run totals for their teams. So many variables go into a big number and one is venue. The top ballparks for offense this season are: Coors Field (Rockies), Globe Life Park (Rangers), Fenway Park (Red Sox), Miller Park (Brewers), Chase Field (Diamondbacks), and the Rogers Centre (Blue Jays). Understanding what’s happening in these parks (wind, roof, etc.) is a needed piece of prep for the night’s slate. The other is level of pitching competition. Sure, a team can go off against any old gas can, but who are they up against tonight? Finally, though this is not an exhaustive list here, a key area is the proficiency of the team at the plate. If you have a lineup full of hitters who aren’t producing, the number will reflect that. When considering this line from these agencies, one must be very diligent, watching the lineups come in and making sure you’re getting someone from that lineup into your cash games (50/50s, HTH) and making sure they are higher in the lineup in order to get extra at-bats. At DraftKings, where you aren’t penalized with negative points for outs, the extra plate appearances are definitely worth seeking out..
So choose wisely, keep an eye on the lineup as they come in on Twitter, websites and the like. Be ready to pivot to a player if he’s suddenly sitting in the 1-spot after seeing a majority of the at-bats this season a lot further down the lineup. On a night when there should be soon high scores, it’s going to pay to be on the offensive…
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Dallas Keuchel, SP: $11,000 – It tears me up not to roster Max Scherzer, but at $14,600 and needing almost 45 FP to make it worth the while, I’ll pivot to Dallas, who has been very consistent in his starts this season relative to his price point on DK.
Jaime Garcia, SP: $9,800 – The same consistency song could be performed for Garcia, who has yet to earn less than half the expected performance based on price. In short, he has a lowish ceiling, but he’s solid and has established a floor that is as well.
Russell Martin, C: $3,600 – Exposure into Rogers Centre is never a bad thing, especially with Vidal Nuno rolling into town against the Blue Jays. Martin has been quietly hitting with above average expected power and getting some additional lift on those moments of contact.
Jonathan Lucroy, C: $3,300 – Lucroy doesn’t have the same batted ball profile as Martin, but he does have plenty of opportunity playing in Miller Park, ranked fourth for offenses. Expect him to have success against Philly’s LHP Adam Morgan in Milwaukee.
Eric Hosmer, 1B: $4,100 – Hosmer gets Jered Weaver Friday and Weaver has struggled against lefties the past couple of seasons. Weaver was a50 points higher in wOBA than against righties. Play your lefty Royals.
DJ LeMahieu, 2B /3B: $4,500 — Coors is a magical offensive place where the ball flies further and unicorn sing the national anthem. In a comparatively weak market without LeMahieu at 2B, facing the Padres’ Tyson Ross.
Cesar Hernandez, 2B/SS: $3,300 – Hernandez is about two more multi-hit, double digit scoring days from getting a season pass of no complaints when I roster him. Hernandez has been great and rides into Milwaukee to get in on Wily Peralta and that great ballpark.
Jean Segura, SS: $3,300 – Speaking of Miller Park, here’s the guy who has been a leadoff hitter there recently and has a tiny 3.3K salary. He’s not much on power, just good contact at a penthouse batting order spot.
Xander Bogaerts, SS: $3,900 – On the Boston side of that tilt against the Mariners, Bogaerts gets a lefty (Montgomery) and he has been mashing lefties this season, nearly doubling the RC+ as compared to him facing RHP this season.
Jose Uribe, 3B: $2,900 – Another lefty masher and he gets J.A. Happ to satisfy his LHP cravings. Uribe has added some pop lately and his fly ball rate over the last 30 days is nearly 50%.
Charlie Blackmon, OF: $4,800 – Easy plug/play into Coors Friday night, Blackmon gets Ross at the leadoff spot and being at the head of the order, as the favorite, with a 10.5 run number. That’s a good thing.
Ben Revere, OF: $3,500 – If Revere bats leadoff, lock him in at home against Nuno. If he’s batting last, he’s a tourney play at best.
Mookie Betts, OF: $4,500 – Here’s another Boston bat in that tasty matchup against Montgomery, as long as John Farrell leaves Betts in the lineup. Betts is just in between white-hot smoking Miguel Sano and Lorenzo Cain on the power metrics so he can take advantage of a matchup against an LHP.
Franklin Gutierrez, OF: $3,200 –
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The only chance of a shower as of this writing is in Chicago….which isn’t on our slate tonight, so batter up!
Doing Lines In Vegas
As discussed, the lines are high tonight….SD @ COL (10.5), SEA @ BOS (9.5), TB @ TEX (9) and NYY @ TOR (8.5) — Man, that’s a lot of hitting out there tonight. Of the lot, David Price, who hosts the Yankees likely with the roof closed in Toronto, is favored at -240.