“We all started mainlining fame when we hit it big. I didn’t want to say goodbye to the lights, the drugs, or most importantly, the groupies. Sure, Slater and Screech told me I was out of control popping at least 4 or 5 caffeine pills a night and then hitting the slums of whatever city Zack Attack was in that night to find some anonymous woman to sleep with. But when you’re the biggest backyard birthday party band in the world, how could I not? I could afford any legal over the counter pill I wanted. But all I really wanted, was approval from Mr. Belding.”
– Zack Morris, lead singer, Zack Attack
Much like his fair haired brother in Los Angeles arms, Zack Morris, Zack Greinke has been on the attack all season, sporting a ridiculously low 1.61 ERA. But, just as danger waited around the corner for Morris as he chased the fruits of his fame, so too might Greinke have a crashing to earth experience himself.
Greinke has been carrying a FIP of 2.77, an XFIP of 3.22 and a SIERA of 3.31, meaning that, good as he is and has been, he probably shouldn’t have been that good. Still here he is pitching well and posting solid, if unspectacular DraftKings points. Over his last 15 games, Greinke has put up 26.38 DK points. It’s really good, but at his price of over $13,200, it needs to offer more than that. We’ve been paying up for aces and haven’t been disappointed lately, like Arrieta last night. Greinke is neither pitching as well as Arrieta lately nor does he have as good a matchup, but he is an overwhelming favorite and the Diamondbacks have the lowest team total at 2.5 runs. And being not as good as Arrieta is hardly a conviction of poor play. Greinke has been more than just solid and he is going at home, which has been a bottom ten ballpark for hitting this season. For cash games, he’s a solid play.
You might think that the fact that Greinke just pitched against the Diamondbacks 10 days ago might mean trouble, since often when a team sees a pitcher so close together, the hitters are more locked into that SP since they just saw him recently. However, Greinke had a similar situation in August against the Reds. On 8/16, Greinke held the Reds to one run over seven innings in Los Angeles. Then, eleven days later he faced them again. This time, Zack attacked (oh yeah!) and this time held the Reds completely scoreless over seven innings. He struck out eight and nine in those two outings.
I’m rostering Zack in cash games but looking at lower cost alternatives to get the Coors bats (which I don’t preview in this piece because you don’t need to be told to roster those guys, I’m sure.) in the lineup as well as some other high cost, high yield bats I’ll discuss down below.
You may think it’s time for the Zack Attack to crumble, but I think there’s one more hit song for sure.
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Kyle Hendricks, SP: $8,000 – Hendricks has to take the baton from Arrieta as he faces the Brewers and while he’s not dominant like Jake, he’s been solid over his last six starts, posting a 3.42 SIERA, 8.5 K/9 and a 10% swinging strike rate. He’s also a solid -210 favorite at home against Milwaukee and if the wind isn’t blowing out, is a solid SP2 tonight.
Kyle Schwarber, C/OF: $4,600 – The Schwarb keeps on plugging. Still among the leaders in hard hit and expected power, Schwarber is still a tremendous play at catcher here on DraftKings. His .483 wOBA against RHP is staggering, as are his ISO splits. Roster with love and care.
Francisco Cervelli, C: $3,700 – Ok, one Coors bat. This is a decent price point for a middle of the order play in Coors Field. Cervelli is among the leading Pirates in power metrics and the Pirates are enjoying a six run team total heading into the game.
Mike Napoli, 1B: $3,100 – Most of the industry has caught on that Napoli has been hitting again, especially against LHP. Napoli’s wOBA vs. lefties is nearly .400 and the Rangers have been getting high team totals even in slightly below-average offensive venues like Oakland.
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B: $5,100 – If you are going big at 1B, then sign up Encarnacion. He has great numbers even against RHP and he has maybe the biggest SP target of the night in Ivan Nova facing him in the Rogers Centre.
Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF: $3,900 – Zobrist has a .416 wOBA vs. LHP and that stellar split number gets him the nod at 2B. The Royals also have a surprising 4.6 team total in this game and with Zobrist batting second, he’s a reasonable play slightly under 4K.
Chris Coghlan, 2B/OF: $3,700 – Coghlan has had a nice season and is still solid in his power metrics, especially against RHP. He’s slugging nearly .500 against them and enjoys a .370 wOBA against them as well.
Derek Dietrich, 3B/OF: $2,800 – Dietrich is a raker and can rake bad RHP, which is what David Buchanan is. Dietrich is slugging .565 against righties and the Marlins are rocking a 4.8 run team total, even in Miami.
Miguel Sano, 3B: $4,300 – A bit of a gamble here considering the SP is Corey Kluber, but Sano is still hitting righties hard and Kluber has allowed 2.7 HR/9 in his last six starts. In other words, Kluber can be had and Sano has just the skill set to take advantage.
Andres Blanco, SS/3B: $2,400 – Blanco against lefties and me looking to pull some big bats into my 20K SP duo has been making all of the sense over the last 5-6 weeks. We’ve documented Blanco’s effectiveness against lefties before, but his updated wOBA is .428 with a .552 SLG against LHP.
Xander Bogaerts, SS/3B: $4,000 – But if you are scared of Phillies, then Bogaerts also provides good vs. LHP action. Drew Smyly has kept his SIERA fairly low over his last six starts (3.69), but is giving up 46% fly balls and a homer per nine innings. Xander has been hitting lefties at a .400 wOBA clip and the Red Sox and is smack dab in the middle of the Sox lineup that carries a 4.7 run total.
Bryce Harper, OF: $5,700 – The best. Harper’s numbers are phenomenal against righties, scoring a .491 wOBA and a .686 Slugging against those SPs. The game total is a little deflated but Harper’s cash game skills are solid, walking a ton and then smashing. Pray for Chris Tillman.
Curtis Granderson, OF: $4,300 – The Grandy Man can ’cause he mixes it with dongs and makes the world taste good. Granderson has been a staple in the top of the power metrics for a 1/2 season now and he gets Williams Perez who is so incredibly hittable, he might give Nova a run for SP target of the night.
Darin Ruf, OF/1B: $2,300 – Another Philly forgotten, Ruf is a power smashing LHP basher who will have Adam Conley facing him. Ruf enjoys a .468 wOBA against lefties and a massive .633 slugging percentage against them, too. 2.3K is a great price to roster if you are looking to get Harper or Encarnacion in tonight.
Michael Conforto, OF: $3,900 – Conforto is at a high price, relatively speaking to where he was just a month ago, but he has the same sweet matchup as Granderson and enjoys a robust .411 wOBA as well.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
It’s supposed to be a clear night in MLB with the exception of the Indians playing at the Twins, where a thunderstorm is forecasted for their game time. Check the weather before lock, especially if you are taking a chance on Sano tonight.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Well, it’s a Coors Field night, so that game is showing a game total of 11. The Yankees/Blue Jays and Rays/Red Sox are both nine run totals. The Pirates have the highest team total at six runs and the Diamondbacks are the lowest at 2.5. Greinke is a -240 favorite in that game and leads all SP there.
