We have a full 15 game slate this evening, with the last game of the night featuring the Phillies taking on Peavy and the Giants at AT&T Park. I’m not a fan of late night talk shows, but I am fan of late night baseball. If you are out this evening, a cool party trick you can do is to open your DraftKings app and show your friends how many points Jake Peavy has. Over his last 5 starts, Peavy has average 19.1 fantasy points. But are those stats boosted by wins? No, he only had 2 wins during that time. Tonight, however, he should have high chance for the win against the pitiful Phillies, who have a 73 wRC+ and 22.1 K%. The odds makers in Vegas agree with me, putting Peavy and Giants at a -220 favorite. The Phillies and the Giants are on opposite paths right now. In the past 10 the Giants are 9-1, while the Phillies are 1-9. Peavy’s main pitches are a fastball, cutter, and a sinker. Against those pitch types, Philly has a league low average of .236 and slugging of .375 (2nd lowest). He has also rediscovered his ability to make batters swing and miss. His swinging strike rate sits at 10.8%, which is the highest its been in 2007. He has also been getting hitters to chase his pitches out of the zone. Hitters are swinging on 31.8% his pitch thrown out of the strike zone, putting him at 17th highest among qualified starting pitchers. Because of his low price and recent performance, other players should be all over Peavy tonight, but so should you! Peavy owners are going to be fired up about having him in their lineups. And with that, here are the rest of my picks for this Friday slate…
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Max Scherzer, SP: $13,900 – He may give up a homer, but will most likely rack up 10+ K because the Brewers strikeout 25.9% of the time against RHP. Beside his K potential, my next favorite thing about him is that he owns the highest swing % at 52.4% and 4th lowest contact % at 71.5% among qualified starting pitchers. Hitters can’t handle his stuff.
Masahiro Tanaka, SP: $8,800 – One of my favorite stats to look at for pitchers is o-swing%. It’s the percentage of swings at pitchers thrown outside of the strike zone. This stat shows the ability of the pitcher to trick the batter into swinging at pitch that would have otherwise been a ball. Swings at pitches out of the zone often lead to strikeouts and ground balls. Tanaka is the pitcher with the highest o-swing% for tonight’s slate at 35.0%, which is also good for 4th highest in the league in qualified starters. He’s facing off against the Twins who have a K rate of 22.7% and a 89 wRC+ vs RHP. He should also be in line to win as the Yankees are a -220 favorite.
Colin Rea, SP: $5,300 – If there is one thing the Padres do slightly well, it’s hit LHP. I like Reed, but Great American Ball Park is tough place to pitch. Rea’s groundball rate of 45.9% should give him the advantage over Reed, and less of chance for a blow up. He has struggled with walks this season, but the Reds only manage to walk 6.7% of the time against RHP. In his last start, Rea managed to hold the Nationals to 4 hits, 2 runs (1 earned), and 6 K. The Reds are only have a 81 wRC+ and a 22.8% K rate. Because of his low K rate of 17.1% and swing strike rate of 6.3%, Rea is tournament play only.
Russell Martin, C: $3,900 – Martin was cold as ice to start the season, and I was not willing to pay the price to have him in my lineup. Boy times have changed. Russell has been heating up, batting .310 with a 1.042 in his last 10 games. In Rodon’s first 2 seasons he has gave up 22 homers, only one has been to a lefty. In 156.1 innings to RHB, hitters have a .354 wOBA off of Rodon.
Trevor Brown, C: $2,700 – Brown had preformed pretty average against both lefties and righties, but has shown more power vs RHP. In his first major league start Eflin struggled and gave up 9 runs (8 earned) and 3 homers. He next start was better, but only lasted 5.2 innings. Brown can do damage to either Eflin or the Phillies, who have allowed 40 bombs and a .771 OPS.
Mark Trumbo, 1B: $4,400 – Matt Moore has surrendered 15 bombs this season, 12 to RHB. It just so happens that Trumbo bats right handed and loves to hit bombs. He crushes baseballs, with an average exit velocity of 94.5 mph and ISO of .276.
Miguel Cabrera, 1B: $3,600 – Batting average can often be driven by BABIP and luck, but over 4193 PA it is a solid evaluation of ones hitting ability. Since 2010, thats how many PA Miggy has tallied and he leads the league with .331 batting average over that time. He alos leads the league in runs with 640, RBI with 736, and wOBA at .420. He’s one of the best hitter on the planet and only prices at $3,600. Salazar is no slouch on the mound, but its Miggy! He has yet to be priced over $4,900 in the past 10 games, but has average 12.6 points in that span. Keep pricing Miggy low, and I am going to keep paying for him.
Dustin Pedroia, 2B: $4,100 – Nick Martinez pitched 62 innings to both lefties and righties last season. The righties managed a .388 wBOA and 11 dongers. Since 2015, Pedroia has a .358 wOBA and only a 11.3% K rate vs RHP. This game has the second highest total at 9.5, so Laser Show should have plenty of opportunity to runs in the 2 hole.
Yangervis Solarte, 2B/3B: $3,200 – As I mentioned earlier, the only thing that the Padres do well is hit LHP. Well Solarte has been the best at doing just that this season. Against LHP, he has walked more than he has struck out and owns a .460 wOBA. Since joining the Padres in 2014, Solarte has a 129 wRC+ and is batting .293 vs LHP.
Josh Donaldson, 3B: $5,500 – The reigning AL MVP has continued to do his thing this season, especially vs LHP. Against LHP he is batting .318 and a 167 wRC+. Since 2015 he has the 3rd highest wRC+ of 172 vs LHP. JD has been crushing the ball this season. He has a hard hit % 42.5 and an average exit velocity of 94.2 mph.
Danny Valencia, 3B: $4,000 – Are the Athletics really going to get shut out by Weaver twice in a row? Please no! I don’t want to live in world where this happens. So please Danny, line up one of Weaver’s 83 mph fastballs and take it for a deep ride.
Brad Miller, SS: $4,200 – Because of his low average and walk rate I avoid him in cash games, but I can’t seem to stay away from Bad Miller in tournaments. There must be something wrong with me. LHB have seen slightly more success vs Gallardo in his career, and Miller been better vs RHP. Miller has 35 of his 38 homers off RHP.
Asdrubal Cabrera, SS: $3,800 – Droobs will be facing off against Aaron Blair, who has allowed 22 earned runs in 28.2 in Turner Field. This will already be the third time this season the two have seen each other. I think there is a higher chance the 30 year old venizuelan veteran has figured out Blair, than the other way around.
Matt Kemp, OF: $4,600 – Kemp may have a swinging strike rate of 15.3% (very bad) and a o-swing% of 42.7% (pathetic), but he is still managing to hit the ball. Since 2015, Kemp is batting .307 and a 150 wRC+ vs LHP. He’s been hot in his last 10 games, batting .447 with a 1.132 OPS and averaging 10.2 fantasy points per game.
Seth Smith, OF: $3,000 – Carlos Martinez has gave up one extra base hit to a RHB this season. Good news … Seth Smith bats left and has a career .831 OPS vs RHP. He has been batting 2nd with a .313 average over his last 10 games.
Kirk Nieuwenhuis, $2,700 -If you looking to fade Scherzer, captain Kirk is the answer. Scherzer has struggled vs LHB this season. Lefties have .351 wOBA and 9 homers. Out of Kirk’s 20 career homers, 19 have been from RHP.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The only troubled skies appear to be in Baltimore. There is a chance for a delay as there’s a 40% chance of thunderstorms to start the game, but looks like it will die off. Heavy 12 mph winds blowing in from right field in Texas may help limit the damage that is most likely to ensue. 10 mph winds are blowing in from right in Colorado, but shouldn’t have an affect because it’s Coors.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Tanaka and Peavy come in at -220 as the biggest favorites of the day, and a have good values in the DraftKings prices. Price and the Red Sox are next at -160, followed by Hendricks and the Cubs at -155. The winds blowing in from right field in Coors may have had an effect on the ARI/COL total, as it has dropped to 11 from its 12 opening. There is baseball in Coors, so the highest total is there at 11. Three games share a total of 9.5, which are SDP/CIN, TB/BAL, and BOS/TEX. The CHC/MIA and WAS/MIL games have the lowest totals of 7.5.
