So you want to be a DFS superstar… A tune that will be sung by Rich Hill owners today. Now you have to be careful pitching at the ripe old age of 36. Rich Hill pulled his groin and had to miss his last start. He’s back today and facing the Houston Astros. Minute Maid Park may be a juicy match up for homers, but that’s not something Rich Hill gives up easily. Since the start of 2013, Ol’ Rich has only given up 7 homers and hasn’t allowed more than 3 earned runs in a single game. Surprisingly, he has been better away from the pitching friendly confines of O.co Coliseum. He has been limiting hitters to a .511 OPS and owns a sub 1.00 WHIP. The Astros are slightly below average with 98 wRC+ vs LHP, but strike out at an absurd rate of 26.1% (3rd worst in the MLB). Rich Hill has one of the best spin rates in the league on his curveball, which plays well with his fastball that helps him generate above average swings and misses. He has the most curveballs thrown with a RPM greater than 2500, by nearly double that of the next closest pitcher. His curveball is only allowing a .252 SLG and his fastball a .227. Meanwhile, the Astros are only managing a .170 batting average and a .267 slugging against curveballs, both 4th worst in the league. Put Rich Hill in your lineup to become a DFS superstar… and live large… Here are the rest of my DFS picks for Saturday June 4.
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well reserve your spot in the 25 Team Razzball Exclusive League set to run Monday June 6th to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
Clayton Kershaw, SP: $14,100 – Kershaw vs the Braves. This is the Mona Lisa of matchups.
Bartolo Colon, SP: $7,000 – The Phillies and the Marlins have been eerily similar this season against RHP. Both teams have a league low .297 wOBA. The Phillies are generating more power, but striking out slightly more. In his two starts vs the Phillies this season, Colon pitched 12 innings, gave up 9 hits, 4 runs, 11 K and only 1 BB. The Marlins have only managed to score 97 runs in May (5th lowest). His last 4 starts have all been against LHP, 2 vs Gio Gonzalez and 2 vs Kershaw. So today he gets an easier opponent in Justin Nicolino. If his offence can give him runs, which they should, he will have a high chance of collecting the win. Pitching in Marlins Park, I expect the Big Sexy to put up similar numbers that he had against the Phillies.
Junior Guerra, SP: $6,800 – As I just mentioned, the Phillies are essentially hot garbage vs RHP, with their league worst .297 wOBA. This issue is that the Brewers are not much better, with a .307 wOBA. The opposing pitcher, Jeremy Hellickson, has been pitcher well, but the Phillies have lost the last 9 of 10. Junior Guerra has a better chance for the win, and can rack up the K’s against a team with a 21% K-Rate.
Matt Wieters, C: $3,900 – Nova and Wieters have a 41 plate appearance history, which includes 4 homers and a 1.210 OPS. For pitchers with a minimum 130 batted balls, Nova has the 4th highest exit velocity of 91.7 mph. Balls will be flying today in this hitter friendly ball park.
Chris Iannetta, C: $3,300 – He owns a .220 ISO and a 16.5 BB% in his career vs lefties. Today he faces off against Martin Perez, who’s struggled to find the zone and already issued 31 BB vs 40 K. Iannetta has shown a good eye at the plate so far. He’s only swinging at 17.5% of pitches out of the zone, compared to the league average of 28.5%. Gotta love a guy who can walk and has power potential.
Pedro Alvarez, 1B: $3,600 – 87% of his HRs have came from RHP in his career, to go along with a .226 ISO. Again, Nova has been getting hit hard! Pedro is a solid power option for you tournament plays, but avoid him and his inconsistency in cash games.
Eric Hosmer, 1B: $3,100 – I repeat $3,100!!! Hosmer has been crushing RHP with a .446 wOBA, good for 4th best in the MLB. Opposing RHP, Josh Tomlin, has give up homers in all but 1 of his 9 starts this season. If you’re looking for a player who has a good chance for a homer then Hosmer is your guy.
Joe Panik, 2B: $4,000 – Michael Wacha was in a 3 game slump of only lasting 4 innings, giving up 20 runs in that span. He snapped out if it in his last start by going 6 with 3 earned runs, 6 K, and 1 BB, but I’m not buying it. He has a career low 7.8% swinging strike rate, well below the league average of 10%. Panik is good at making contact, and I expect him to have a multiple hit game.
Rougned Odor, 2B: $3,700 – He’s eligible to return today and should be in the lineup. While everyone else is enamored with the Trea Turner call up, let’s go with a guy who’s had plenty of rest and time to ice his fist.
Darwin Barney, 2B/SS: $2,300 – His price has only hit $3,100 once, yet he still continues to hit the ball. With Tulo on the DL, he has been seen every day playing time at SS. Although not likely to to hit a homer, he’s been seeing the ball well, hitting .344 this season. The Jays and their offence seems to be turning things around, and the last time these clubs met there was 39 runs in 3 games.
Eduardo Nunez, 3B/OF: $4,500 – Matt Andriese dazzled owners with a 2.36 ERA in May, however his 4.28 xFIP was less impressive. When Andriese leaves pitches in the zone, hitters are making contact 91.7% of the time on their swings. Nunez has been better when facing RHP. If Andriese throws pitches over the plate, Nunez should contribute to his .329 batting average. It also doesn’t hurt when he has potential to hit a homer and swipe a bag.
Javier Baez, 3B/SS: $3,700 – He may only have 88 PA vs LHP in his career, but holds a .817 OPS. Limit that sample size to just this season, in 20 AB, and he has a 1.172 OPS. Pitching to him today will be LHP Edwin Escobar, who’s debut did not go so hot. He gave up 7 runs in 3.1 IP. He wasn’t doing much better in AAA either, with a 4.68 ERA in 5 starts. Swinging away like Gary Sheffield, Baez should be in for a productive day at the plate.
Brad Miller, SS: $4,000 – Batting nearly .300 since the start of May, and most often finding himself 2nd in the order. Ervin Santana’s best pitch has been his slider, as he is throwing it almost 40% of the time. But, Miller has handled the sliders he has seen, batting .318 and slugging .545.
Mookie Betts, OF: $5,200 – It’s easy to pick a guy who hit 5 homer in 7 plate appearances, however this is a match-up where he could have another multiple homer game. I’ve been a supporter of Marcus Stroman, but right now he is struggling. Two of his last three starts he has gave up seven runs, one of which was against Boston. Earlier I mention Nova having the 4th highest exit velocity, well coming in at 2nd is Stroman with 91.9 mph. In his career, Mookie’s best numbers come at home with an opposing RHP on the mound.
Franklin Gutierrez, OF: $3,400 – Hey it’s Franklin! The 33 year old may move like a turtle, but has an .840 OPS vs LHP in his career. I can’t confirm whether he can count by two’s or tie his shoes, however, I can confirm that he can still hit the ball out of the park. Playing in Globe Life Park with an O/U of 9, Franklin could take on for a ride.
Michael Bourn, OF: $2,500 – Another 33 year old, but not one that’s a power threat. He is, however, still a threat on the base paths, and Hammel has gave up 40 SB since 2013. Cubs have only thrown out 19.57% of runners this season. Bourn is batting .333 with an .429 OBP. More good news, Hammel has struggled with lefties in his career, surrendering a .340 wOBA to them.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Not a perfect day for ball. First game of the day at Wrigley is likely to see thunderstorms in the second half. And there is a 50/50 shot of thunderstorms in Philly. TB/MIN may see a delay, but should be able to play. If that game does play, there are strong winds blowing out to center. Stay away from WSH/CIN, as there is a high chance of thunderstorms and possibility of cancellation. Eleven mph winds are blowing straight in from center in Comerica Park, so Sale may be worth a look vs a Tigers team who has a 88 wRC+ and 23.7% K-rate vs LHP.
Doing Lines In Vegas
No surprise here, Kershaw and the Dodgers a -400 favorite and total of 6. TOR/BOS have the top line of the day at 9.5. NYY/BAL and SEA/TEX expected to produce runs with totals of 9. TB/MIN and LAA/PIT are next highest at 8.5. Vegas has Hammel and Cubs at -260. Hammel has a reasonable price of $8,600, but is coming back from hamstring cramps. Strasburg and the Nationals are sitting at -200, while Sale and the White Sox are just behind at -180. Vegas disagrees with my pick of Rich Hill, as they put Oakland as a +105 dog, but I still feel good about that choice and he may be a solid tournament play.
