Drafting Closers for 2015

So with the arrival of February comes the arrival, or “un-hibernation” of Smokey.  I was just getting comfy, curled up in my crochet loogy-blanket that my grandma made me, dreaming about what else? Bullpens, of course.  So this first post of the year is to bring you up to speed on my drafting advice for the upcoming year as it relates to the closers/holds and guys who will help you do everything but start the games.  I will be here every week, to update you on the chicanery that is the MLB bullpen picture.  So sit back, relax, and just think, it’s only 4o more weeks of me talking about bullpens and closers…Can you feel the excitement?  If you hate me now, you will probably wanna hold my hand by week 20 and maybe go see Jared by September 1st.  Here’s my thoughts on draft strategies for saves in the upcoming year of 2015…

So we all love the stats we can see.  The ones that win us the categories, these being saves and the peripheral stats of K’s, ERA and WHIP to some extent for relief pitchers.  I am here to tell you to look a little deeper when it comes to finding the fantasy studs that reside in the separate dugout only reserved for no starters.  The stats that you want to look at K/9, K/BB and BAA (Batting Average Against).  These are all good fantasy indicators for a solid contributor in the end game.  I usually look for guys above the line of 10 K/9, 4 K/BB and the average below .200.  These are all goal posts that you should shoot for when looking to draft closers, especially when drafting closers at a value.

Drafting closers, and where you draft them is easily the biggest question I encounter throughout my time here analyzing bullpens.  This is where it gets tricky because there is no set standard of where to draft a closer.  Each draft is different…imagine that.  I usually let the flow of the draft dictate where and when I draft my first closer, but I will tell you this: This year, my focus for drafting a closer is a fairly simple adage, don’t meddle.  You want to be the fourth guy drafting a closer.  This will guarantee you one of Chapman, Jansen, or Holland without completely nuking your rankings and getting value behind where Kimbrel is usually being drafted.  So far this year in the drafts and mocks that I have participated in, Kimbrel is going in the late 5th round with the remaining three guys going anywhere from 1-20 picks there after.  So if you can get a top closer in the 70’s pick wise, this will basically setup your lineup to have 4-5 hitters and 12 starters before drafting your first closer.  This will also eliminate you from drafting another closer for at least seven rounds, which you should have all your hitters filled and be looking for value in the starting pitching ranks.

Let’s take a look last year, for instance, because we all like history to give us some look at value and their returns. Last year, closers were drafted earlier than I had seen.  Craig Kimbrel was drafted on average in the 4th round, 40th overall on average.  Now the haters may say that is too early, and by all accounts, it is, but not if you look at the value return that he gives you. His value in RCL formats last year was 38th overall, not too bad for really only contributing in one category.  It gets better with more of the top-10 closers from last year and their ADP last year, and the net they returned in ESPN end of season value.

So, as you can see, every single closer that finished inside the top-10 last year gained value on their ADP, even Kimbrel.  Which brings up the question, is it better to be early to the race, or just be late, punt and seek value elsewhere?  That elsewhere is with starters who retain their value in an awful and fluctuating manner.  So be smart and let the draft and team needs be where you draft a closer, because as we know, the closer situation from year-in and year-out is a fluid one, with plenty of flux.  And remember be 4th!