Now that America has celebrated its birthday, the temps will only get hotter. Along with the weather, we’re going to start to see the usual second-half hot streaks emerge. The poster boy for that the last few seasons has been Brian Dozier. Take advantage on Draft.com of those poor season-long numbers to pluck some mid-year turnaround values.
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Trevor Bauer, SP: Early. You should be on board with Bauer as an SP1 by now. It took him a while to put it all together, but the breakout is here. He was just named to his first All-Star game in his age-27 season. The under-the-hood numbers check out, with a 13.1 SwStr% and 2.17 FIP.
Miles Mikolas, SP: Middle. Mikolas has taken a couple DFS lumps lately. That can happen when a pitcher doesn’t have a strikeout floor built in. The Cardinals have a good shot at beating the White Sox and Dylan Covey, who recently remembered he was Dylan Covey. I’ll take the relative safety of Mikolas and his 2.81 ERA with above-average win odds at a middle pick.
Marcus Stroman, SP: Late. This one’s a bit of a gamble that you’ll get the pitcher we saw in two June starts. The away game being in Atlanta ups the risk factor some, but I feel like Stroman’s sinker plays anywhere if he’s on. If you’re going to wait on a pitcher, get one who offers upside.
Paul Goldschmidt, IF: Early. One of the hottest hitters at the moment gets to go to Coors. Almost doesn’t seem fair. What’s that? He also gets to face a lefty? Perhaps the Rockies should have to pitch to him underhand as well.
Brian Dozier, IF: Middle. We know by now to ignore Dozier’s first few months. Maybe Minnesota isn’t a great baseball place in the spring. The summer’s here and so is the start to Dozier’s annual hot streak. In the last two weeks, he’s hit three home runs and thrown in a stolen base. That streak should continue against Ian Kennedy and his 1.97 HR/9 to RHB.
Justin Smoak, IF: Late. Said in the voice of Ron Burgundy, “You know I love lefties in Suntrust.” Smoak is also turning a corner after a disappointing first half. His July split includes a .400 OBP and .561 SLG. That indicates he’s seeing the ball well. Oh, and it’s a Julio Teheran home start.
Mookie Betts, OF: Early. Right now Mookie is second only to Mike Trout from a power-and-speed combo standpoint. The Rangers are easy to run on, and they continue to trot Yovani Gallardo out on the mound. It could be a good night for Mookie to have a combo meal.
Eric Thames, OF: Middle. No one’s a better bet to hit a long ball on a night he’s facing a RHP. That shows through in his .333 ISO vs righties. Some people may fade him in Miami, but that kind of power plays anywhere.
Aaron Hicks, OF: Late. Hicks’ talent hasn’t really ever been an issue; it’s his ability to avoid the DL that has suppressed his value. We don’t have to worry about that in DFS very much. He’s hitting the ball hard at the moment, evidenced by a HH% of 45 the last 15 days (39% on the year). That should play nicely on a warm night in Camden Yards.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Storms could be moving into Pittsburgh, and Boston later in the evening. Check that forecast closer to lock to make sure they aren’t arriving early evening.
Doing Lines in Vegas
I’m not usually one to bet on an under, but the Athletics-Astros looks like a low-scoring affair. Houston’s lineup is a bit dinged up at the moment and they have Justin Verlander pitching. I’m good with the under at 8 runs.