This may be my only chance to lead with a Bieber pun, so I’m shooting my shot. Here’s hoping it’s Neil Diamond level, not Smash Mouth cover bad. If you’re going to fade the top pitchers on Draft.com tonight, the Biebs is a great gamble. To quote The Jewish Elvis, “Then I saw this Ace, now I’m a Bieleber.”
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Zack Greinke, SP: Early. Greinke’s been on point lately, allowing only 3 ERs in his last 19.1 innings. He’s run hot and cold this season. Let’s hope we catch him still in that surge. It helps that the Diamondback offense has broken out of an early season funk to give some run support.
Shane Bieber, SP: Middle. The Biebs has had some interesting results in limited work this season. As a command specialist (3 BBs in his last 3 starts), there have been more Ks than you’d expect lately. KC strikes out less than any team in the league, but also scores less than any team. I like the floor here with a shot at some upside if the Royals have an uncharacteristic strikeout night.
Ivan Nova, SP: Late. Nova’s in that same vein of floor with a small slice of upside. It’s ugly on the pitching side tonight. Playing it safe isn’t the worst bet. Nova typically limits runs and his pitch-to-contact approach plays fine at Dodger Stadium.
Giancarlo Stanton, IF: Early. A significant amount of Stanton’s damage this season has came off lefties, with a .774 SLG vs LHP. It’s also face-meltingly hot in NYC. Good home run weather.
Jose Ramirez, IF: Middle. The other two infielders I’m recommending have laughably low projection by Draft. J-Ram has been the Indians’ most productive hitter, with 14 HR+SBs in the last 30 days. Getting on base 41.7% of the time is a good way to set the table.
Freddie Freeman, IF: Late. Much is made of Suntrust Park being a perfect place for Freeman’s lefty power. He’s on the road this week, but don’t shy away from Braves. Freeman has actually hit two more road homers (9/7), and his stops at Yankee Stadium and Miller Park are equally LHB paradises.
Charlie Blackmon, OF: Early. Charlie has been less Blackmonesque lately. Don’t overestimate that; most humans just can’t keep up the level of production he set early. He’s in a prime spot at home against rookie Chris Stratton. Most pitchers’ first trip to Coors Field is a memorable one, and not for the happy memories.
Rhys Hoskins, OF: Middle. Opposing pitcher Alex Cobb is one of our favorite DFS pitchers to target. It says something about the Orioles’ pitching situation that they have to stick with a pitcher who has a 6.75 ERA. Citizens Bank Park on a hot night is not likely to help that ratio.
Mitch Haniger, OF: Late. Haniger can get overlooked at times. Maybe it’s playing in Seattle, with game starts in Pacific Standard Time. He’s having a breakout year, though. Haniger has better splits vs RHP, but Andrew Heaney’s coming off a rough outing. I’d like to see Mighty Mitch up those power splits vs LHP tonight.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There’s a chance of thunderstorms in Philly and New York today. In addition, the East Coast has apparently crashed into the surface of the sun. Game time temps in the nineties combined with crazy humidity could lead to some cheap fly ball homers.
Doing Lines in Vegas
I’ll take the over on Braves-Yankees at 9 runs. It’s too good an offensive environment tonight between the humidity and park factors.
