Happy first week of July, Razzball Nation! It’s been a patriotic week for everyone, and I’m sure more than one of you baseball fans managed to fire up the BBQ and enjoy the long weekend. Not only is this the week for independence but it also marks the mid-way point to our MLB season! Now is the time to take a long, hard look at those full season leagues and decide if it’s time to cut bait or make a deal or two to push you over the top!
Whether you play in those full season leagues or not, MarmosDad has some good names and numbers for you to take a peek at today to help you in your DFS matchups! There’s the usual mix of bigger bats, decent mid-level plays, and a couple of rookie prices to take a chance on if that’s your thing.
It’s a 14 game list today at the 81(ish) game mark. We start the day in Motown as Shane Bieber looks to mow-down the Tigers at 1:10 PM ET, then push on through a few afternoon games to get to the evening schedule. Our last game of the night sees the Rockies at Dodger Stadium for a 10:10 PM ET start.
But as always, last and never least, just a reminder that a lot of the notes that I take and share here are influenced by Rudy’s Streamonator and Hittertron, as well as the DFS tools available right here on Razzball. The DraftKings/FanDuel lineup optimizer is a great way to build multiple lineups with these picks to see how to best enhance your selections and get more bang for your DFS buck! You can access all of this information by signing up for Rudy’s tools using the DFSBot link below.
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Cristian Javier, SP: (DK) $9,300 – One of Grey’s faves, Javier has been otherworldly over his last two starts. He no-hit and struck out 13 Yankees in NY for 7 innings, then followed up with another 7 inning gem (outside of an Ohtani HR) with 14 K’s at home vs the Angels on July 1st. With a season long home triple slash line (against) of .148/.228/.267, I’d say he’s a good bet against the underwhelming Royals in Houston today.
Max Fried, SP: (DK) $9,900 – Ok, so full disclosure that a big part of the Fried play here was to make the title work well. I can see moving to Shane Bieber at DET ($9,100), going with the chalk Corbin Burnes or Shohei Ohtani, or rolling the dice on Grey’s lede from yesterday, Brayan Bello, ($5,000). Psycho Kellers, (Mitch and Brad), quest for a high ERA? Ha Ha Ha Ha…runaway!
As for Fried, he is no lame duck or rubber chicken. He only gave up more than 2 ER in one June start (out of 6) and has a full season line of 2.66 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 96:16 K:BB. Yes, the Cardinals are a formidable opponent but with a K/9 rate of 9.45 in June, Fried should be able to handle himself at home this evening.
MJ Melendez, C: (DK) $4,000 – Well, it’s been a few weeks since I went down the MJ rabbit hole, so with 2 HR on Monday night and another last night, we’re back in today, baby! Oh, MJ. The Way You Make Me Feel about catchers is a heck of a lot better than it used to be. Melendez has had a few hitless games to end off June, but him launching 3 homers in his last 2 games could mean that he’s starting to heat up for July. If you caught the replays, you can see how much power this kid brings. He’s doubled his original price from when I first wrote about him back in May, but at $4,000, those other catcher picks can Beat It.
Pete Alonso, 1B: (DK) $5,800 – I wanted to go back to Vinnie Pasquantino for the second week in a row here, but he’s facing Javier at Houston and I can’t recommend another lefty power bat after going with MJ too. So, when in doubt, to the Hittertron we go! The second ranked 1B today (after Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) is Pete Alonso (35.6 Hittertron). AlBombso – aka the guy I should’ve taken in the Razzslam instead of Matt Olson – had a very good June (.627 SLG and 9 HR). Hitting .276 on the year with 22 HR and a .901 OPS is good for my 1B slot against the Reds’ Graham Ashcraft today.
Trevor Story, 2B: (DK) $4,700 – Inevitably each week I get out ahead on a Tuesday morning, then realize I’ve written up at least one guy that @TheGreatKnoche writes up for Tuesday’s games. There were a few good plays at the keystone today but like Knoche did yesterday, I settled on Trevor Story at home (against Corey Kluber). Of his 14 homers on the year, Story has hit 10 at Fenway Park. 9 of those 14 have come off of RHP. This season, Kluber’s 1.07 HR/9 has been his highest rate since 2012. Sounds like the Story arc could peak right around the top of the green monstah in this one.
Wander Franco, SS: (DK) $4,600 – We’ll stay at Fenway for the other half of our MI pairing, but flip the scorecard around and take Wander against the rookie Bello today. Buyer beware with players facing a rookie pitcher – Bello could throw a bunch of heavy fastballs past the Rays OR he may have… below … average results for this tilt. I’m gambling on Wander coming out on top here. Wander is ranked as the 21st hitter overall for today’s games and is riding an 8 game hitting streak, 1-for-1 with 3 runs and an SB through 7 innings last night? ’ll take a healthy dose of Fenway Franco tonight!
Rafael Devers, 3B: (DK) $5,700 – I didn’t come into this with plans for a Red Sox stack, but it seems like this might be the case. Devers is the top option (overall) on Hittertron today with a 40.8. There’s not much news to share here other than that this is one of the best hitters in the game at a position that is not exactly filled with other top options. He’s hit in 13 of his last 14 games and has crushed 14 of his 17 homers against RHP. Check, please.
Jarren Duran, OF: (DK) $4,600 – I really don’t want to curse this by saying the Red Sox may have finally figured out that Duran is a much better choice to have in Boston instead of Worcester, but Duran has been proving that this return to Beantown was no mistake. Since his most recent call-up on June 4th, Duran has recorded at least one hit in 12 of 16 games. He’s had 7 XBH over that span, including 1 HR, and has swiped 5 bags. This one is another Hittertron pick (4th overall) and a player with the possibility of providing production in power and sPeed.
Kyle Schwarber, OF: (DK) $5,100 – It’s another big bat to pair with the speed of the aforementioned Duran today in Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber’s power has continued to grow over the summer as he hit 12 of his 25 bombs in June, with a .680 SLG% and 187 wRC+. He didn’t waste any time last night, hitting 2 homers against Paolo Espino in his first two ABs. Like our pick last week in Jack Suwinski, Schwarber isn’t winning any batting titles or going 5-for-5 with a handful of slap singles. This is where the big boomer is and with Josiah Gray’s 1.78 HR/9, I think we may be in for a Schwar-bomb or two again tonight!
I’m Only Happy When It Rains…
Early July means sun and fun at the ballpark! The only rain as of last night was 15% chance at Baltimore for the Rangers and a 12% chance in Pittsburgh and Atlanta.
Doing Lines In Vegas…
I almost went with James Kaprielian against the Jays for an underdog play (+145) strictly because Jose Berrios has been lost for most of the year. But I’m not even sure that can help the A’s overcome some potent Toronto bats here.
As far as Over/Unders go, I’ll take the O8.5 in Texas at Baltimore and a U8.5 with Joe Ryan and the Twins visiting Lance Lynn and the White Sox.
Best of luck in the DFS plays today! If you have any questions, shoot me a note on Twitter @MarmosDad!
