DFS is a fertile ground for biases to emerge, especially early in the season. Perhaps you drafted a player because you thought they were going to have a breakout year. Your bias may lead you to want to roster that player in DFS, but the matchup, the weather, and the ballpark factors also need to be heavily weighted in your decision among other things.
Even the data is not very reliable this early in the season. Stats take a lot of time to normalize and reflect the true value (ability) of a player. Strikeout rate (both for pitchers and hitters) only needs 100 ABs to start reflecting the true ability of a player, but most batters haven’t even reached half that at this point in the season. Everyone playing early season DFS is still operating mainly off of projections, and the actual result will have individual players finishing well above and well below expectations.
So what can you rely on early in the season to make picks? I look mainly at actual and projected K/BB rates because they are quicker to normalize and I can isolate a group of teams that should be in good spots pretty quickly.
TB, for example, is leaving their temporary ballpark and traveling to TEX where they get to face Tyler Mahle who struggled mightily with command in his first start. He is still making his way back from TJS and command is rarely on point early in a TJS person’s return to action. TB has shown good walk rates and a low K rate, the kind of patience that could really test Mahle again.
Jake Irvin is certainly nothing special, so ARI should have a really good opportunity to put up solid offensive numbers. When Irvin is out of the game, the WAS bullpen (worst in the league) will be allowing hits and runs. ARI is in a nice spot.
Finally, Tyler Alexander is a flyball pitcher who struggled with command early on and will likely give way early on to a bullpen that has been taxed early this season, pitching more innings than any other team besides MIA.
I will likely look to stack players from one of those teams, but you can look to other individual players who have been producing good max EV (a sticky stat) and who traditionally show good plate discipline. Also, check out the Hittertron to see whose topping the Razzball rankings.
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Spencer Schwellenbach, SP: $9,800 – Schwelly is one of the better pitchers on the slate tonight, but what makes him most attractive is the solid home matchup vs. the worst offensive team in the majors. Schwelly is going to put up close to 30 points today with potential for more.
Brandon Pfaadt, SP: $7,200 – Pfaadt is a good, solid pitcher who struggles to put away lefties via the K. WAS can start with 6 LHBs atop their lineup, which is a concern, but they also have 4 players sporting a K% of 45 or greater so far this season and the bottom of their lineup is going to struggle here. Pfaadt is well priced for this matchup and projects for a nice floor with upside for more.
Gabriel Moreno, C: $3,200 – The Diamondbacks are one of the better lineups in baseball and their low K rate and high walk rate as a team help turn that lineup over assuring a C like Moreno has a good shot at 5 ABs. Moreno himself has been hitting the ball hard and faces a weak WAS pitching staff. If he can start elevating the ball, we may even get a HR today.
Pavin Smith, 1B: $3,500 – Like many DBacks, Smith hits the ball very hard and handles RHPs very well. The WAS pitching staff is below average at striking people out and if ARI is playing with a lead (build lineups accordingly) then he should play the whole game. The price is right and he fits well with the stack.
Ketel Marte, 2B: $5,700 – Marte has had a slow start to the season power wise, but his underlying metrics are solid and despite the high cost, hitting a ceiling score at 2B is a good strategic way to play for first.
Eugenio Suarez, 3B: $4,300 – Suarez has a .077 babip, but 5 HRs out of his 6 hits. He is a power hitter, but he also walks a ton and those other hard hits will start falling as well. Suarez is a main part of the ARI stack today.
Elly De La Cruz, SS: $6,200 – Elly is a great one off play. He can really disappoint at this price, but you are not playing just to cash are you? CIN has a good matchup and Elly has the most fantasy friendly tools outside of Aaron Judge maybe. I like spending up at SS because there are plenty of high priced SSs that can post a high score, but I like Elly tonight.
Jake Mangum, OF: $3,800 and Kameron Misner, OF: $2,800 – I was not familiar with these two before the ‘25 season began, but they have earned the trust of the TB brass and we generally know that is a good thing. It’s an organization that many trust to develop good fantasy players. On top of that, they are both hitting the ball hard over 45% of the time with good contact skills and the Rays have one of the better matchups on the day.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
BAL at KC is going to be touch and go as to whether it plays and if it does play, they will all be wet. Usually, this is good for the pitchers, but it’s hard to take any action because of their low K upside playing in a park that suppresses Ks. I’ll probably just play this as a 6 game slate and forget about this game altogether.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Vegas does not expect much offense today…anywhere. I wouldn’t be excited to take advantage of any lines, but I do think that taking ARI, CIN and TB to win would be a nice little parlay. TB is an underdog so it should up the ROI on that parlay.
