Hey Razzballers! Mid-Week MarmosDad is checking back in to say happy Wednesday! We’re almost halfway through May, and the early season victory laps are in full swing…*sheds a single tear for every one of my Adalberto Mondesi shares in full season leagues*. Early season small sample sizes are slowly giving way to more data and games to analyze, so let’s take a peek at some good plays for your DFS lineups today!
Like last week, we start nice and early with three games beginning at 12:35 PM ET, and trek on through 12 more games to our not-so-late start in Texas where the Royals take on the Rangers at 8:05 PM ET.
There were a few wonky matchups set for today, and some very late announcements for pitchers, so buckle up and have a look through the notes that I punched up to save you some time researching and get you straight to the goods! Let’s get you some wins in your DFS plays today, (and maybe stack some brews while you’re at it!).
But first, like I said last week, just a reminder that a lot of the notes that I take and share here are influenced by Rudy’s Streamonator and Hittertron, as well as the DFS tools available right here on Razzball. As a side note, Rudy’s draft software is well worth the buy next spring too! You can access all of this information, by signing up for Rudy’s tools using the DFSBot link below.
New to DFS? You can start playing right now on FanDuel and put our picks to the test. If you’re scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray, it helps support your Razzball team!
Logan Gilbert, SP: DK: $9,800 – Steering away from the top options today, I settled on the guy who checks in at the 4th position on Streamonator. At +17.1: Logan Gilbert at home vs. the Phillies. This call seems to be better than the big guns in the Anaheim/Tampa Bay game (more on that later). After five fairly spotless starts, Gilbert got touched up for 3 ER his last time out, but his numbers are just too good to pass up at $9,800 today. He’s punched out 33 hitters in 33 IP, only allowed 5 total ER, and has ratios just over 1.00. He’s given up zero homers at home this year, and lefties are hitting just .169 against him on the season. Not good news for Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, but good news for you if you put him into your DFS lineups today.
Nick Martinez, SP: DK: $7,800 – This one is the value play for those looking for a more affordable pitcher to round out your lineups. Martinez is one of only seven positively ranked pitchers on the Streamonator today. His 2-2 record and 3.38 ERA through 5 starts doesn’t exactly pop off the page, but he’s facing a Cubs team that’s batting .235 against RHP with an underwhelming OBP. Seeing the other SP on today’s list, I’d rather roll the dice with Martinez than some of the other potential land mines.
MJ Melendez, C: DK: $3,100 Well, KC’s smooth criminal, MJ Melendez, was the catcher pick in my May 4th writeup and I’m running him back out there again today. Although he’s not at his ridiculous $2,000 price from last week, a $1,100 jump isn’t all that bad and is still a relatively decent value play. He’s been keeping his head above water and hitting .333 over his first six MLB games, and even swapped spots with Salvador Perez to DH for one of them. He should be in the lineup against the Rangers again tonight. Look for him to at least continue to hit the ball hard with his 94.6 MPH exit velo., and 10% barrel rate.
Rowdy Tellez, 1B: DK: $4,300 – As our fearless leader, Grey, would say I was thisclose to recommending Rowdy as a value play last week in my May 4th DFS writeup. In the end, I went with a bigger bat in Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but would have been much better off running Rowdy, (not sure how many times those two words have been seen together), and his giant cranium out with the Brew Crew last week. Facing a very shaky RHP in Vladimir Gutierrez and the Reds, Rowdy went off for a 4 for 6 day with two home runs and 8 RBI’s. If only he could face that same team today…What’s that? He is? Well, it would be awesome if he was hitting against the same pitcher that gave up one of his bombs and was shelled for 7 ER in 4.1 IP? Uh…ya…that’s the matchup today too. At first base today, let’s go with the orange on a toothpick, and say howdy to Rowdy again in the early game against the Reds.
Jose Altuve, 2B: DK: $5,200 – Altuve’s cost is pretty steep at $5,2000 today. This one is often boosted because of the name, (not unlike the boost Altuve gets from slapping three telephone books on top of the driver’s seat before heading to practice). Houston is in Minnesota today facing Chris Archer. I’ll put my money on Altuve continuing his 7 game hitting streak since going 0-3 in his first game back from hamstring injury and bet that it holds up even though Archer has had a steady start to the season.
Rafael Devers, 3B: DK: $5,800 – The only 3B with a higher price today is Nolan Arenado at home vs. Baltimore, but I’m still headed to Atlanta to play Rafael Devers tonight. Ian Anderson and his thick as a brick 8.22 ERA at home is a good enough enticement for me to play Devers, even if it is a small sample size. Anderson has more BB than IP, and Devers has been scorching hot the past week – 9 for 19 over his last five games, with a grand slam cherry on top in last night’s tilt.
Willy Adames, SS: DK: $4,300 – Another Brewer? You betcha! Big Willy style is looking to get jiggy with a Brewers stack today against the aforementioned Vladimir Gutierrez, and the sad sack Reds. Hittertron agrees as Adames is the top SS option. Adames’ average may not be great, but those 8 HR and wRC+ of 131 in a run producing spot of the order is a good play in my books. I’ll play Willy over the more expensive options here and look for some potential power and counting stats.
Josh Naylor, OF/1B: DK: $3,900 – You can slot this relatively value priced play in at OF here, or slide him to first base today as DraftKings has him listed with dual eligibility. Coming off a lede from Grey’s daily post yesterday and a deeper dive from Coolwhip too (check it out if you haven’t yet), Naylor absolutely torched the White Sox on Monday night (apologies to any Liam Hendriks fans) with a game tying grand slam, a game winning HR, and 8 RBIs. If you didn’t catch the clip of him after his second homer (that eventually was the game winner), do yourself a favor and give that one a look too. He was pretty pumped. With a $3,900 price tag, I’ll ride this schmotato against Vince Velasquez this afternoon.
Christian Yelich, OF: DK: $4,300 – It almost feels dirty to recommend Christian Yelich after all of the heat he took from the fantasy community over the winter. The 2018 NL MVP looked everything but last season as he peaked out with 9 homers in 117 games and ‘wet noodled’ a measly .373 SLG%…BUT…this is a brand new year and Yelich has shown signs of life through the beginning of May. Through his last 7 games, he has 4 XBH, 8 runs scored, and lands atop the Hittertron for today’s games (+59.9). After 29 games this season, he’s already almost up to half of last year’s 1.4 WAR (0.5 in 2022). At $4,300, I think the price is right to get back in on Yelich today.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Like Shannon Hoon used to say, there should be No Rain today (in MLB). It looks like another beautiful day for baseball no matter where you decide to check in. Winds will be blowing hardest at 17.9 MPH in Anaheim, but that might not matter because…
Doing Lines In Vegas
…my closest to a lock today is taking the under (7.5 as of last night) in Anaheim today. Shohei Ohtani vs. Shane McClanahan seems like one of the best pitching duel matchups that we’ll see so far this season. Both should have a great night, with a bunch of strikeouts, so I’d play both the under as well as take a peek at what the line is for each of their K totals too.
For an upset pick, I’d throw some action on Toronto and Jose Berrios to bounce back in New York at +155 against Jameson Taillon.
