This is my last DFS article of the year, and for those of you who ever took my advice and wagered actual money, this day couldn’t have come sooner for you. However, I’ve had a blast. I figure that this is a process-driven thing we do, and YCPB (You Can’t Predict Baseball). Ultimately, it’s called “gambling” for a reason, and people can give all of the fancy stats, trends, metrics, etc and it may not mean a damned thing. Since even the most supportive stats can be meaningless in a one-day sample, I try to make myself laugh when I write these, and hopefully get a chuckle out of those of you who read it as well. Mostly it’s somebody mad because believe it or not, sometimes info on the Internet is wrong and a site has a wrong probable starter, or perhaps even somebody went on the IL after I’d already submitted the article and was at my actual job. The horror of these errors! So I have one last chance to help you guys out and end my 2022 DFS season with a positive feeling, and Yu give me a positive feeling. No, not you–Yu, as in Yu Darvish (FD $10,500/DK $10,100), my lead for today.
Over the last 30 days, Darvish is the top pitcher on the Razzball Player Rater, and 2nd place (Bieber) wasn’t all that close. Six starts, six quality starts, six wins, 0 losses, 44 Ks in 40 IP, a 1.80 ERA and 0.73 WHIP. He gets to face the White Sux at home, but it won’t be easy. Luis Robert and Tim Anderson are outstanding players and tough outs each…*finger to ear* wait, I’m just being told that they’re both hurt and that they’re starting players named Romy and Mark (Payton) instead? I’d rather let Phoebe and Sarah Michelle Gellar hit than those two bags of protoplasm. Since it’s Chicago, I may even try to exhume Sweetness before I let this Payton try to hit Darvish. Yu is going to eat this lineup alive, and you’re going to thank me personally by Venmo’ing me 10% of your winnings. Or this won’t work out at all and we can chalk it up to “Classic Hoove.”
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Clayton Kershaw, SP: FD $10,700/DK $9,600- It’s always a good idea to use Dodgers pitchers for that dub probability, and when it’s future-HOFer Kershaw, it’s an even better idea. If you want actual stats, Kershaw is 3-0 the last 30 days with 36 Ks over those 30 innings, a 1.80 ERA (2.00 FIP) and a 0.80 WHIP. He’s got the Rockies on the road? Yep, that’s a matchup we’ll happily play.
Adley Rutschman, C: FD $3,000/DK $4,600- What a great crop of rookies, and Rutschman is right at the top of the conversation about who the best one of 2022 is. He’s hitting the ball with authority, producing every day (his impact on the team is obvious if you believe in team record with him on it vs without him on it), and he’s got googly-eyes checking out the short RF porch in Yankee Stadium. Tonight, Rutsch is more Man than Domingo Ger.
Ty France, 1B: FD $3,200/DK $4,200- With 10 hits and 8 RBI the last seven days, I like France’s chances against Ken Wesneskewshski (I double-checked the spelling, and pretty sure that’s correct). Hopefully, this France hits the Pole around just as well as their U18 soccer players did a few days ago.
Tony Kemp, 2B: FD $2,300/DK $2,900- Seattle’s Logan Gilbert is a lynchpin of the Mariner rotation and will be key to any postseason success, but Kemp is 7-for-13 career vs LoGil with a HR, so I’m taking the cheap play with a history of success here.
Bobby Witt Jr, 3B: FD $3,900/DK SS-only $6,000- Witt continues to terrorize pitchers, with 11 hits in the last week (including 6 RBI, 8 runs and a bag) while watching J-Rod and Adley get more pub. Those dudes are great, so no shade here…but Witt has been fantastic as well. I cannot wait to go all-in on BWJ next year. He’s also facing Zach Plesac tonight, and that’s enough to make anybody sit up and pay attention lest they get buzzed by a laser from a KC bat against that doofus.
Carlos Correa, SS: FD $2,900/DK $4,800- The Tigers are scorching hot (that’s not a typo) but I’m trusting Correa and his own current hot streak of 10 hits in his last seven games to do some real damage against the lefty Tyler Alexander. Alexander has a platoon disadvantage vs RHBs this year, but it’s offset by his home split being entirely in his favor. So I’ll split the difference and say he’s given up 11 round-trippers in 60 second-half innings, and side with Correa here.
Bryan Reynolds, OF: FD $2,900/DK $5,700 – On the Player Rater, Reynolds is the 3rd-best hitter the last seven days with 11 hits (including three homers) and a bag. He’s facing Jack Flaherty, and I’m sure that guy is completely healthy and sharp. He’s especially cheap on FanDuel, but DraftKings has caught his price up to his recent surge.
Bryce Harper, OF: FD–Not Available/DK $5,100- There’s no team Bryce Harper enjoys terrorizing more than his former team, the Nationals. Harper has 13 career HRs vs Washington, good for 5th-most vs any other team…except the teams he’s hit more HRs against he’s done so in at least twice the ABs (and sometimes triple the ABs). I’m not saying it’s personal for Bryce, but if you asked me why I wanted to roster him tonight, I’d tell you that’s a clown question, bro. Not that we can play both ends of the doubleheader today, but in the early game he’s going against Fedde, whom he’s got six homers off of in 19 career ABs. I may end up putting some ducats on over total bases for the early game, and I’m not sure how high they could make it to dissuade me. (*FRIDAY 6:30 AM EDIT* Be careful on this one, as since this was written Thursday evening, I’ve seen conflicting reports as to whether this game will be played.)
Randy Arozarena, OF: FD $3,700/DK $5,800 – Hittertron has the Rice Bowl ranked 5th today, and he’s the 7th-best hitter the last week on the Player Rater with 10 hits (one homer), nine RBI, and two bags, so you’re pretty much playing the hot hand and siding with the Razzball predictive tools here.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
@BallparkWeather advises that the NYM game in Atlanta is not likely to be played tonight, so don’t bother rostering Bassitt, Fried, Acuna, Olson, Alonso, etc. It says that the Phillies/Nats game may be impacted late (after 9 pm) by some rain moving in, but nothing to keep the game from starting or (probably) finishing. (*FRIDAY 6:30 AM EDIT* Be careful on this one, as since this was written Thursday evening, I’ve seen conflicting reports as to whether this game will be played.)
Doing Lines In Vegas
Yu Darvish +115 to go over 6.5 Ks seems like pretty good money to me.