DFS: I Love When Yusei “Houston We Have Liftoff!” 

I always used to get flustered around the time when lineups were locked on a Tuesday night because there were so many games to take into account and I felt like I HAD TO stack the random game that went off for 10+ runs. I would tinker with my lineups and I ended up getting away from the data that was guiding me in the first place. Well, thanks to some early start games, we only have 10 games today (9 if the KC-CHW gets rained out) and we have some resolve (right?) knowing that if we play this slate out a bunch of times, we will benefit from sticking to the best plays at the best (lowest) ownership.

An interesting data point to begin to look at is K%, the rate at which a pitcher strikes out his opponent. K rate begins to stabilize around 70 BF and we are above or getting very close to that number. The following list of pitchers are stabilizing around these K rates:

I will be looking to roster the higher K rate pitchers knowing that if they limit the hard contact or even get lucky with it, they should produce some good DFS scores. Yusei Kikuchi is particularly interesting as he is the lowest priced player on this list. Jared Jones is pitching on 4 days rest, so that has me somewhat concerned, but he is otherwise a solid play.

Some other questions we can ask ourselves about pitching concern the welfare of Hunter Brown facing ATL. Hopefully, he comes out a little more poised than his last outing. Reynaldo Lopez has BB issues, which HOU can take advantage of. Finally, Wade Miley is 37, starting the season late with shoulder soreness, and had 0 Ks in first start (4 IP @ CIN) The Padres are in play again in a park that boosts HRs by 4%. Finally the Dodgers are facing Patrick Corbin.

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Logan Gilbert, SP: $9,500 – Not only is Logan Gilbert the #1 rated pitcher on the Streamonator, and he is more than deserving. He has started to settle around an elite 30% K rate with an impossibly low 4% BB rate. He is pitching at home against a team with a top 5 K rate. 

Yusei Kikuchi, SP: $7,800 – Kikuchi is one of 4 starters with a 30% K rate on this slate, but he is not priced like it. I am willing to take the discount and trust that his K:BB numbers have a chance to lead the slate. Facing NY is never an easy task, but he is at home. Just know the risk you are taking with a lower priced pitcher.

Ivan Herrera, C/1B: $3,100 – I’m guessing he will get a chance to play vs. a lefty and his barrel rate is off the charts right now. His batting numbers are up there with his teammate Wilson Contreras, but his price sure isn’t. 

Jon Singleton, 1B: $2,600 – I could see him getting the start in this spot. It’s the cheap addition to an Astros stack that lets you get both Altuve and Tucker. There are so many good 1B that you can really take your pick $4,300 and above and be just fine. 

Jose Altuve, 2B: $5,300 – The price is a bit prohibitive at 2B, but if I’m not paying up for Mookie, I want Altuve in my lineup. He is almost walking more than he strikes out and his barrel rate is…. Mmuah! Altuve is on a roll to start the season and I like this spot for the Astros.

Manny Machado, 3B: $4,800 – Machado has not experienced any slippage in play with his surgically repaired elbow. His barrel rate and control of the zone are great. He excels vs. lefties and I am wary of Wade Miley being able to avoid mistakes with his late entry into the season due to shoulder soreness. 

Jeremy Pena, SS: $4,000 – Pena has been putting the ball into play with regularity. He is going to thrive in a game where HOU has men on base, something I predict will happen vs. Lopez.

MJ Melendez, OF: $4,200 – I will keep including MJ as a bat to roster as long as he remains this cheap. His statcast data is dreamy (18th in barrel %, 113 mph Max EV) and he has reduced his K rate to league average while walking over 10% of the time. Oh, he has speed enough to steal a base also. Throw in the idea that KC is an interesting stack and the entree is complete.

Kyle Tucker, OF: $5,600 – While his max EV is not quite on par with his teammate Yordan Alvarez, his consistent ability to hit the ball hard coupled with his ability to steal a base make him a perfect player to roster against Reynaldo Lopez, who can be somewhat wild. I like the Astros offense in this spot and Tucker is my favorite piece of it.

Bonus, OF: $2,100 – Lawrence Butler is too cheap. He is controlling the strike zone and hitting the ball hard resulting in a 15% barrel rate. Lance Lynn is going to get touched up by some of these A’s players and Butler is a great bet for some hard hits, free passes, or steals.

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

As of Tuesday morning it looks like it’s going to rain in Chicago and the storms are somewhat likely to wash out the game. So, I gave a bonus player to replace MJ Melendez. There is some good weather in LA as if that all star lineup facing one of the most hittable pitchers needs any help. LAD stacks anyone?

Doing Lines In Vegas

The Vegas lines are supporting some of the top offensive plays on the slate like the Astros, the Diamondbacks, Boston, Cleveland, and Toronto. I would be interested in taking all of those teams to go over their run totals and hoping to get ? correct. Not sure that wins you much money, but that’s why I play DFS instead.