DFS: Gore Them With A Lance, Padre

One method for breaking down a slate is to look at each game in the DK app and pinpoint the SPs and offense you want to target. Here are some “first glance” thoughts. 

TB at BOS: Giolito is generally worse vs. RHBs who get a big park upgrade at Fenway, but TB will roster 6 LHBs usually. Looking for slate winners, I don’t think I will find any with Giolito or the TB stack. BOSs top of the lineup is better vs. RHPs and Pepiot is very average. I could see myself playing a tighter group of BOS bats and never Pepiot. (maybe BOS bats, especially with low priced rookie phenoms)

WAS at NYM: MacKenzie Gore is always interesting. 35%K rate, 7% BB rate and a 2.50 SIERA are elite. The Mets best performing bats are left handers (Soto, Nimmo, McNeil) who will either sit or be really challenged here. I have an interest in Gore. Griffin Canning will be facing an offense with at least 4-5 interesting offensive pieces and an ERA that should regress higher as the season continues. Not interested in Canning, but WAS bats will be low owned and have some upside potential despite playing in a difficult park for batters. (Gore on tighter builds and a possible 3 man WAS stack)

TEX at MIN: I have no interest in an overachieving Tyler Mahle, but TEX has been so bad (K rate of 27% over the last 14 days during an otherwise bad offensive season) that even Woods Richardson is someone I want to consider at only 6.8k, especially if his location continues to improve as the season goes on. MIN has been a pretty good offense all year and as the weather heats up they are also heating up. (Woods Richardson is a punt option at SP and MIN bats are attractive as a 5 man stack)

NYY at KC: Max Fried is always a desirable SP to roster, even at his elevated price. He offers safety and upside, but his price makes him a bit prohibitive. I have no interest in KC bats. Noah Cameron is getting very lucky with the batted ball contact he produces. He will not maintain a sub 1 ERA and will likely regress to 4+. If that begins tonight vs. the Yankees no one will be surprised. NYY bats are firmly in play. (Fried plus Yankees stacks)

ATL at MIL: Quinn Priester and Grant Holmes are very average pitchers facing average offenses. While ATL has plenty of power, they have not been great offensively this year. I am interested in the Braves as nothing more than one-offs. I am interested in neither pitcher nor in stacking these offenses. I see a lot of “average” in this spot tonight. Average doesn’t win tourneys. (ATL one offs.)

TOR at STL: Mikolas is not the ground ball pitcher he once was and a team like TOR can have success against him. TOR is cheap and has a lot of attractive offensive pieces. Chris Bassitt will have a blow up from time to time, but I am not trying to predict that here and would rather stay away from him and the offense he is facing. (TOR stacks are in play)

CWS at HOU: The White Sox are still a bottom tier offense despite some successes recently. They still rarely hit HRs which is the main requirement for DFS success. Lance McCullers is also the SP they are facing and he has surprised MLB with a 39% K rate and only 7% BBs in his last 3 games. I am very interested in McCullers tonight. HOU faces a weak pitching staff, but the best SP that CWS has, Shane Smith. I am always interested in stacking against the White Sox and a little less so in this spot. (McCullers on tighter builds and HOU stacks)

SF at COL: The Giants will be highly owned as they should be. Check to see that Matt Chapman and Jung-ho Lee are back in the lineup before stacking the SF offense. I often like to fade Coors games on large slates and hope the DFS scores for the Giants are mediocre. I cannot roster COL stacks, even when playing in Coors, but I am interested in Hunter Goodman at C. (Probably avoiding this game because of ownership, but SF is clearly in play)

ATH at LAA: Jose Soriano is not a great pitcher, but he keeps the ball on the ground so often that it will be very difficult for ATH to post any separator scores. LAA will be in a good spot against the ATH pitching staff and I am keen on rostering stacks of LAA or even one offs like Zack Neto and Jo Adell. (LAA stacks)

SEA at ARI: Brandon Pfaadt has been horrible lately and I am interested in rostering SEA considering Pfaadt’s struggles and the consistent success SEA has had on offense. I would only be stacking SEA in hopes that Pfaadt’s struggles continue. I don’t want one offs here. Logan Evans is a fine pitcher, but will not shut down ARI. I almost always have interest in the ARI offense at home. They are a bit expensive, but worth it for their offensive prowess and late night hammer. (SEA stacks in larger field tourneys and ARI stacks on tighter builds)

LAD at SD: Dylan Cease recently predicted a hot streak coming based on his command and stuff, but it’s not likely to start against the Dodgers. I am intrigued, but would not roster Cease on tighter builds or in smaller field tourneys. LAD is a great offense, but this is not the spot to target them. SD on the other hand gets to face Bobby Miller, who is pitching only because every LAD pitcher is hurt. I think SD has a big game here. (SD stacks)

Now, I want to compare my thoughts with Vegas lines and the Razzball DK player rater. Vegas is pretty much in agreement with my analysis which is nice to know, but doesn’t help to uncover any hidden gems. The Razzball pitcher rankings for DK today include Cease, Gore and McCullers up at the top. I do think Cease will go under owned here which continues to make him an interesting play against a scary Dodgers team. While Pfaadt, Soriano and Pepiot get decent projections, I am most interested in seeing how Simeon Woods Richardson projects tonight. Razzball currently does not have him projected for some reason. Worth looking into.

In the following list I will give the top rated player (that correlates with my thoughts and teams I will be targeting) from the Razzball player rater for today’s DK slate:

SPs – McCullers and Gore

C – Hunter Goodman

1B – Paul Goldschmidt

2B – Ketel Marte

SS – Zack Neto (Anthony Volpe)

3B – Manny Machado

OF – Aaron Judge, Corbin Carrol

Choose a team you are interested in stacking and always consider including players from the 6-9 spots in the lineup as they serve as good salary savers and often outperform in blowouts. For your other three spots, consider a secondary stack or one offs. At SP, I am likely sticking to the higher priced guys or paying down for Woods Richardson after investigating the starting pitcher situation.

Thanks and good luck!