Have the A’s traded Frankie Montas (FD $10,200/DK $8,300) yet? They haven’t? So he still gets to pitch in cavernous Oakland Coliseum, and he still is facing the 25th-in-MLB-in-OPS-vs-RHPs and 25th-in-MLB-in-road-OPS Royals tonight? Looks like we’ve found our SP lead for this week.
Montas has had a terrific year so far, pitching to 3.40/1.05 ratios across 76.2 innings. But the underlying numbers suggest Montas has another gear, as his xERA is 3.04 and his xFIP is 2.97. He’s a four-pitch pitcher, and all four of them are at least 2% higher than MLB average for SwStk%. Montas also sports two pitches that are well below-average (meaning, much better than the MLB average) in Z-Contact%. His results have been great thus far, the peripherals say they should be even better, and KC hasn’t produced like the kind of team that’s going to turn those numbers on their head. Relax! and let Frankie blank-y KC.
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Jon Gray, SP: FD $8,600/DK $6,900 – Streamonator has Robbie Ray as its top pick today, but there’s zero chance I’m rolling with that. Gray faces the Tigers, and they just had a closed-door meeting to discuss their awful performance. Rumor has it that manager A.J. Hinch kept them in there so long by replacing the doorknob with a baseball; none of the hitters knew what to do with it, so they just stayed in there until one of the kids that wash the uniforms let them out. Gray has double-digit K games two of his last three outings, and I’d think Javy Baez ought to get Gray 1/3 of the way there by himself.
Jorge Alfaro, C: FD $2,500/DK $3,500 – Alfaro has a pair of HRs and an OPS over .800 in the last week; just in time for Kyle Freeland and the smooth, tasty finish of Coors. I’m talking about the Silver Bullet here, but the ballpark will work just fine too. He rested on Thursday, so he should be in the lineup for today’s game.
Christian Walker, 1B: FD $3,000/DK $4,100 – Walker’s K% is a career-low, his BB% is a career-high, and despite having really low AVG and OBP, he’s top-10 in MLB in HRs and RBI among first baseman. That he’s already producing like that when his xBA and xwOBA say he should be much better makes Walker a terrific play most days, but particularly today at home vs. Devin Smeltzer.
Jose Altuve, 2B: FD $3,600/DK $5,600 – Small sample size alert (no pun intended, Jose), but Altuve has two HRs off of CHW righty Lucas Giolito in only 12 career ABs. Giolito’s 1.9 HR/9 is the highest since his 21 IP rookie year in 2016. *insert shaking hands emoji*
Nolan Arenado, 3B: FD $3,600/DK $5,300 – I don’t give a hoot in Hades how well Michael Wacha has pitched this year; his xERA and xFIP are a full two runs higher than his actual ERA, his Z-Contact% is 87%, and I’d bet your left leg that regression is coming, and it’s going to hit hard when it does. Now this seems more like an anti-Wacha blurb than a pro-Nado blurb.
Carlos Correa, SS: FD $4,000/DK $5,100 – Correa is on a heater the last seven days, accumulating 11 hits and a pair of HRs. He gets to face Mad-Bum while sporting an OPS that’s 30 points higher against lefties than his career OPS.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF: FD $3,700/DK $5,100 – Stanton has a .921 OPS the last seven days, facing Ross Stripling in Toronto. Stripling’s HR/FB% is 10% lower than his career average, so am I betting that Ross Stripling figured something out and pushed his HR/FB% to elite levels, or am I betting that it’s baseball and after a long enough time, you are what the back of your baseball card says you are? Giancarlo is going to help him get there. Plus if I’m running DFS and I’m not dipping my toe in the Yankee pool each time, I feel like I’m doing it wrong. These dudes mash.
Taylor Ward, OF: FD $3,300/DK $4,200 – Ward leads off for the Angels and he’s got the “luxury” of facing Robbie Ray. Ward’s barrel% is terrific at 15%, and he’s not swinging and missing (SwStk% below 10%). He’ll also take a walk, and did I mention Ray is pitching? If Robbie throws him something in the zone, there’s a terrific chance Ward won’t just hit it, but hit it hard/barrel it, and if Ward doesn’t get something he likes, he’ll spit on it, walk to first, and wait for Trout and Shohei to drive him in.
Andrew Vaughn, OF: $2,800/DK $3,900 – Vaughn has 12 hits in his last seven games (though no over-the-fence power to show), and is facing Framber Valdez. Vaughn’s OPS is .937 vs LHPs and he’s got Minute Maid Park’s easy left-field bleachers just waiting for a souvenir.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
@BallparkWeather reports no issues, so I’m sticking to its story. Play ball!
Stacks on Stacks on Stacks
In the blurbs I tried to stay away from these stackable players but I couldn’t help myself with a C in Coors and Vaughn in the OF. Just because they weren’t mentioned above doesn’t mean I’m against rolling with these stacks.
Colorado is playing at home, so go to work stacking your Padres and Rockies. As an extra nugget, the Rockies are 6th in the league in OPS vs LHPs and face MacKenzie Gore. C.J. Cron, Brendan Rogers, Connor Joe, Randal Grichuk, Ryan McMahon, Charlie Blackmon…take your pick.
The White Sox are tops in MLB in OPS vs. LHPs, and face Framber Valdez. I suggested Vaughn above, but Luis Robert, Jose Abreu, A.J. Pollock and even C Sevy Zavala (homered in his first game after being recalled) could be good plays here.
Miami is 4th in MLB in OPS vs. RHPs and have Carlos Carrasco opposing them. Jazz is Jazz, Jon Berti is running wild, and Jorge Soler loves summer.
