We are just about one week into the post-trade deadline season and what have we learned? We learned the Padres are trying to become the Yankees and Dodgers by trading for the biggest name on the market. The old Vegas gambling mantra is ‘scared money don’t make money’ and I believe A.J. Preller prescribes to the theory morning, noon and night. The additions by San Diego have not paid the expected dividends yet. The bullpen has been atrocious since the acquisition of Josh Hader and the Padres just took an 8-1 punch to the chin at Los Angeles against the Dodgers team they are chasing. I am curious to see how long it will take both Soto and Bell to get comfortable and start raking.
We also learned the Orioles, though theoretically in the AL Wild Card race, could care less about winning this season as they dealt away their young, stud closer in Jorge Lopez and fan favorite Trey Mancini (go look what he has done since donning a ‘Stros jersey). Baltimore GM, and Anthony Bourdain doppelganger, Mark Elias promises “There is a plan in place. It’s going exceptionally well. We’ve got a very bright future ahead of us.” The future is bright in Baltimore but it’s a tough pill to swallow to sell two of the fan favorites at the deadline. I am not one that will ever claim a closer is the cornerstone of an MLB franchise, but there is something to be said about being able to close games for a young pitching staff. Couple that with the curious move of sending Mancini packing and it is clear the “plan” described by Elias is only known to him.
Additionally, we learned the Mariners did not do enough to add offense. Outside of their core of JROD, Ty France, Eugenio Suarez, J.P. Crawford, and Jesse Winker, their offense is questionable. The M’s are statistically the best defensive team in baseball, but that will rarely matter if they cannot consistently score runs. I am on record as saying Jake Lamb was not the answer Seattle fans were looking for at the deadline. Landing Luis Castillo was a fantastic move by Jerry DiPoto, but perhaps one more move to help score some runs would have made the biggest difference.
The Joey Gallo experiment is officially over in New York, which probably was a few months overdue. The guy has never been one to hit for average, but he made up for that with solid defense and clobbering the baseball on occasion. Well, the power appears sapped at this point making him a high-priced waste of a roster spot. On the flip side, the deal to move Jordan Montgomery was a head-scratcher for many – especially with Nestor Cortes already at the most innings pitched in any season at any level. The Yankee fans will come to love Harrison Bader when he gets back on the field but I think that little bit of tinkering may come to haunt the pin-strippers in the short term.
All that said, the MLB standings have not changed much since the All-Star break. The rich got richer and the poor…well, you know how that goes. My hope is some of those smaller market teams can make a push down the stretch to keep things interesting for all baseball fans. Yes, I’m talking to you Milwaukee!
Now, onto my Sunday picks after a busy Saturday that showcased two double-headers. But before we do, just a quick reminder to check out Streamonator and Hittertron and the other DFS tools from Razzball. There are so many great tools for use, no matter what format or contests you get yourself into. It’ll be well worth your time.
Back to the lineup building…
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Aaron Nola, SP: DK: $10,000 / FD: $10,800 – I thought about going with Jacob deGrom here but I think I want to see one more start before jumping onto that bandwagon again. Staying in the NL East, Aaron Nola looks particularly good today versus the Nationals. Nola’s 2022 has more peaks than a roller coaster at Busch Gardens. Since the end of May though, he has slightly more 50+ point games (FanDuel scoring) as he does below 30. He has been much more consistent in the K column, averaging 8-10 per game most nights. We know the Nats aren’t fielding a particularly strong lineup these days so the ingredients are in place for another 50+ game.
Frankie Montas, SP: DK: $8,700 / FD: $9,900 – NY manager Aaron Boone announced Frankie Montas will make his debut with the Yankees today and I’m here for it. Despite pitching for Oakland, which landed him a 4-9 record, Montas has sported a very good 3.18 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Tack on 109 K’s in 104.2 IP as well. He’s only been averaging about 26 FanDuel points per game since June 1. Now, let’s see what he does with Aaron Judge and a packed stadium behind him.
J.T. Realmuto, C: DK: $5,600 / FD: $3,400 – It looks like I’ll have a Philly stack brewing today. J.T. has been on a nice run since mid-July with 9 double-digit games. He has 5 HRs in that stretch, lifting his total to 12 on the year. The Phillies face Cory Abbott who will be making his second start for the Nats after pitching 5 innings on August 2 versus the Mets. The youngster has looked pretty good so far but like most young pitchers, you never know when an implosion occurs. I’m betting today is more the latter for Cory and J.T. should be a beneficiary. If he gets a break today, my fallback will be Adley Rutschman (DK: $4,600 / FD: $3,100).
Ryan Mountcastle, 1B: DK: $3,100/ FD: $3,100– There are a lot of high dollar 1B to pick from today, but I’m taking a flyer on Ryan Mountcastle. His power tends to come against RHP (11 of 14 HRs this season) and he’s on a little roll over the past couple series. He tends to be a little under-the-radar in the blinding glow of MLB first basemen. On the season though, his barrels are up, his average exit velocity is up, his hard-hit strength is up and his xSLG is up. He may not win you a tournament by himself, but he shouldn’t hurt your chances either…and save a few bucks along the way.
Brandon Lowe, 2B: DK: $5,200 / FD: $3,100 – A couple weeks ago, I suggested getting your fill of Brandon Lowe before his salary started rising. He had some clunkers along the way but also rewarded his DFS fans with 3 games over 25 points, including two this weekend in Detroit. Today he faces Matt Manning who will be making just his second start since April. Last week in Minnesota, Manning gave up 3 ERs over 5.0 IP. I like Manning a lot but it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Rays tee off on him before leaving Motown. If they do, Lowe should be front and center.
Manny Machado, 3B: DK: $8,600 / FD: $3,800 – It’s only a matter of time before the new-look Padres offense lights up the diamond and when they do, Manny Machado will likely be right in the middle of the action. After facing a leftie last night in Andrew Heaney, the Dodgers will run out another today in Tyler Anderson. In 18 ABs versus Anderson, Machado has generally been on the short end. However, his splits against LHP (8 of 19 HRs and OPS of .901) suggest that’s an anomaly and the needle will move back to Machado. I’m betting he’ll be low-owned today as well. If you’re willing to take the gamble, and since you’re playing DFS I’d say that’s a “yes”, then take a shot on Machado today.
Oneil Cruz, SS: DK: $4,200 / FD: $3,300 – Is it me or does Oneil Cruz remind you a little of Jazz Chisholm? What a fun player for the Pirates. Kudos to them for giving their fans a jolt of optimism this summer. I saw Cruz play in 2019 when he was with AA Altoona. My son and I had seats right behind the Altoona dugout when they visited the Bowie Baysox and Cruz even gave my son a ball during the game. Although tall and lanky, he was a man amongst boys that night and it was clear his future was in the show. Sentiments aside though, we’re here today to win DFS contests. Cruz may not have the gaudy stat lines, but he has had a strong season so far versus RHP, to the tune of .743 OPS and 6 of 8 HRs. Today he gets another crack at boosting his strong-side stats when the Pirates face off with the O’s Spenser Watkins. I’ll have two reasons to watch him today.
Cedric Mullins, OF: DK: $4,900 / FD: $3,400 – One of Hittertron’s top OF plays of the day is Cedric Mullins, and with good reason. Mullins comes into the day with 15+ point games in 4 of the last 7 contests due in large part by an uptick in SB. Since the Break, he has 5 swipes in 7 attempts. He also has double-digit RBIs over the same stretch. He particularly likes RHP, to the tune of a .795 OPS, so matching up with Bryce Wilson today looks appetizing for my DFS squads. I think Hittertron has it right on this one.
Kyle Schwarber, OF: DK: $6,200 / FD: $3,700 – The final piece of my Phillies stack is Kyle Schwarber. The batting average is still appalling but 34 HRs speak for themselves. If only Kyle could face off against RHP every day. Since 2020, Schwarber has an .896 OPS with over 80% of his longballs against righties. Cory Abbott may be in for a long (or very short) day.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Very low chance of rainouts today so make your selections with confidence. Winds on the east coast look to help hitters, some of whom are listed above.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Tyler Anderson has been very good this season, but you know I like plus odds and something tells me the Padres are going to make a statement. I’ll take +122 on my hunch. In a similar vein, I may drop a few coins on the Angels (+148), Rockies (+143) and Braves (+126) as well.
