Welcome back to MLB DFS, Money Monday edition. It’s Memorial Day and hopefully, you’re tossing some back by the grill and remembering those who have passed before us. It’s me, Cousin Timmy, here to start your week off right! We have a split slate today but I’ll be covering the six-game main slate on FanDuel with first pitch set for 7:10 PM ET in Boston where the crowd will be rocking from last night’s Celtics game 7 victory.
Boston has been crushing lately, going 7-3, while leading the majors with 24 homers with a .310 batting average over the past two weeks. They will close out a five-game series with Baltimore after playing a double-header yesterday. I expect this game to produce a lot of runs as Tyler Wells and Rich Hill don’t miss many bats. Both of them have a K rate under 17% and these teams have put up a combined 48 runs in four games. Ok, I’m ready to win some money, are you? Let’s get to my favorite plays of the night.
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Zac Gallen, SP: $10,100 –Diamondbacks
It’s a tough call to choose from the top two priced pitchers tonight as they both have good matchups. It’s likely Buehler will be much higher owned tonight due to the Dodgers being -350 favorites vs the lowly hitting Pirates. I don’t know what’s going on with Walker but he’s rocking career lows with a 19% K rate, 26% CSW, and a 28.7% hard contact rate. I’m going with Zac Gallen tonight. Atlanta has a 30% K rate over the past two weeks and has the highest K% in the majors for the season. We just saw Sandy Alcantara rack up 14 strikeouts against this Atlanta team and Gallen is in line to get double digits. Gallen really limits hard contact and has a pretty good K rate of 24.7%. He’s my top dollar tonight.
Drew Rasmussen, SP: $8,900 –Rays
Rasmussen has a 23.7% K rate and has recorded a W in five of his last six starts. He has a nice matchup vs Texas whose wOBA ranks third worst behind Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Drew throws a lot of strikes and gets a lot of ground balls which bodes well against Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien, and Kole Calhoun who hit a lot of fly balls. This should limit their chances for the long ball and allow Drew to have another good game. The only concern here on FanDuel is getting those QS points as Drew has only pitched six innings one time in nine starts.
Spencer Strider, SP: $6,800 – Braves
If you’re looking for value on this short slate, there isn’t much to choose from as I don’t recommend starting Rich Hill or Glenn Otto even though they have both showed signs of promise. So if you want to take a dart throw in GPPs to get the highest priced bats you can go with Strider. He’s made it to four innings one time in his limited time in the majors and if he can get there tonight he may be worth a flyer. The reason? His 17% SwSt rate and 33% CSW% are both elite. He hits 98+ on the gun consistently and even though he’s on a pitch count, he could rack up 6-8 strikeouts getting us 30 points which would be good enough for this price tag.
Victor Caratini, C/1B: $2,100 –Brewers
Caratini homered yesterday and gets to face Drew Smyly who has surrendered nine home runs on the season, three more than any other pitcher on tonight’s slate. I plan on stacking the Brewers and getting a cheap piece like Caratini is ideal for low ownership and savings to spend up on pitching.
Pete Alonso, 1B: $4,100 – Mets
The polar bear is mashing this season and over the last nine games, he’s hitting .394 with 4 home runs. The Mets face Erick Fedde and his 11% BB rate. Fedde strikes out hitters at a 21% clip so we don’t need to be too concerned about big Pete chasing. Alonzo is 6-for-14 vs Fedde with two doubles in his career.
Luis Guillorme, 2B: $2,000 – Mets
Jeff McNeil was sidelined on Sunday and it looks like he may miss another day opening the door for Guillermo to start again. A utility player for the Mets, he’s hitting .355 on the season and is 5-for-8 in his last two games with 3 runs scored. He hit in the lead-off spot on Sunday and may be there again tonight vs Fedde. For minimum price in a stack that should go off, this is a no-brainer.
Mike Brosseau, 3B: $2,300 – Brewers
Another piece of the Brew Crew that I like today is Brossueau. He has a 138 wRC+ and a 40% hard contact rate vs LHP. He’s hit two homers in 35 at-bats vs LHP and should move up in the order a bit with Hunter Renfroe hitting the IL last night. Brosseau isn’t anything special nor is he on a hot streak. This is purely a value play vs a bad pitcher.
Francisco Lindor, SS: $4100 – Mets
Lindor is my favorite SS at a deep position tonight. With Tre Turner, Trevor Story, and Bogaerts all similar priced and good plays, Lindor stands out to me. He’s 3-for-12 with a HR off Fedde in a small sample size but over the past 12 games, Lindor has a .429 OBP with 15 RBI and 17 runs scored. I think he keeps the hot streak going and drives in a few more runs tonight.
Kike Hernandez, OF: $3100 – Red Sox
Hitting only .204 on the season, Kiké has really turned it around. He’s currently riding a 10-game hit streak with 10 runs scored and a 127 wRC+ during that span. The Red Sox run total is set at 5.5 so Vegas thinks they will score a few runs. Kiké has been thriving in the lead-off spot and Tyler Wells is just the pitcher to keep his streak going. He has a low BB rate of 3.9% and doesn’t get many swings and misses which means balls get hit in play a lot. This is good news for the hit streak and the Red Sox.
Randy Arozarena, OF: $3,300 – Rays
Hitting .368 with 3 HR over his last 10 games Randy is coming in hotter than your grill on Memorial Day. The Rays get Glenn Otto who pitched surprisingly well in his last outing giving up just three hits while recording seven strikeouts for the win in five innings. However, on the season, Otto has a 12% BB rate and a 5.53 xERA. Tampa’s lineup isn’t as strong without Lowe and Meadows but that shouldn’t impact Randy’s swing too much.
Anthony Santander, OF: $3,200 – Orioles
We may see a lot of runs tonight in Boston for both teams and Santander is a guy I like for the O’s. At .219 for the season, his batting average is hit or miss, but tonight I think he’s got a great opportunity ahead. He’s got a 127 wRC+ vs LHP and Rich Hill is sporting a 45% fly ball rate. With Trey Mancini hitting the ball well and Mullins always a threat to get on base, Santander should have plenty of opportunities to drive in some runs vs Hill.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Play Ball! I don’t see anything impactful at the moment.
Doing Lines In Vegas
This is as close as I’ve got to doing lines in Vegas in over six years, so let’s make it count. I like the Mets run-line (-1.5) at +106 odds.
Good luck tonight and feel free to hit me up @TimmySperos on Twitter with any questions!