Today we put the finishing touches on one of dynasty baseball’s toughest positions.
People just don’t trade speedy outfielders who can hit.
Or at least they shouldn’t.
Sure a Jarrod Dyson might get vacuumed up at basement pricing every now and then, but if you’ve got Starling Marte, Victor Robles or Oscar Mercado, you’re probably not that interested in the offers you’ve gotten for them. Speed players who contribute across the board are the dodo birds of our game. Outfield and middle infield are typically the only places to find them, apart from the occasional Jose Ramirez or prime-age Paul Goldschmidt. You flat out need some speed covering the green if you’re hoping to compete in the category, and I’m just not the type to advocate punting a category in 5×5. Trying to win leagues over here–not tell tales about fading saves and steals but hanging in with the top group anyway.
Anyway, best to get ‘em young while they’re cheap. I wouldn’t be paying up for all the guys like Pache who show aptitude in the lower minors, but if I can take a fistful of freemium fliers on guys like Jasiah Dixon and Jeferson Espinal, I’m doing that all day.
Maybe they’ll stop hitting or running as they grow into bigger humans against better competition, but if the cost is time and a roster spot for an elite asset, I’ll do all I can to pay it.
You can scan the upper minors for undervalued steals, too. Tommy Edman was the first name that came to mind here, but Mercado’s buying window was open for a long while before he debuted, but he slammed it shut with early stolen bases, and I think that’s going to be the case for a long time. Once a player has proven he can steal big league bases and hang in at the dish, his price will skyrocket. (Monte Harrison, anyone?) I don’t see many reasons for this trend to change unless MLB moves all the fences back and forces teams to manufacture.
Or maybe when the robots happen, catchers will get worse at defense in general, but throwing is already on the back-burner when evaluating that spot, and backstops are in the habit of freeze-framing pitches whether someone’s on the move or not, so maybe success rates will drop if framing leaves the game. In this hypothetical, catchers unleash their inner Pudge, throwing behind runners every other pitch, building in a Pavlovian quickness.
Another way this could change is if prospect writers start factoring stolen bases into their every thought, closing the gap between a guy like Mercado’s pre-debut and post-debut values. Base-thievery is currently treated as a secondary skill (from my vantage point, anyway)–a necessary evil if you want your lists to mirror the real-game lists because steals are not valued highly by most front offices.
Whew, more paragraph-type words than I meant to have here, but that’s it for now.
Rank | Player | Age | Team |
1 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | 22 | ATL |
2 | Christian Yelich | 28 | MIL |
3 | Mike Trout | 28 | LAA |
4 | Cody Bellinger | 24 | LAD |
5 | Juan Soto | 21 | WAS |
6 | Mookie Betts | 27 | LAD |
7 | Yordan Alvarez | 22 | HOU |
8 | Austin Meadows | 24 | TB |
9 | Luis Robert | 22 | CHW |
10 | Bryce Harper | 27 | PHI |
11 | Victor Robles | 22 | WAS |
12 | Eloy Jimenez | 23 | CHW |
13 | Jorge Soler | 28 | KC |
14 | Aaron Judge | 27 | NYY |
15 | Jo Adell | 21 | LAA |
16 | Starling Marte | 31 | ARI |
17 | JD Martinez | 32 | BOS |
18 | Joey Gallo | 26 | TEX |
19 | George Springer | 30 | HOU |
20 | CJ Abrams | 19 | SD |
21 | Julio Rodriguez | 19 | SEA |
22 | Giancarlo Stanton | 30 | NYY |
23 | Dylan Carlson | 21 | STL |
24 | Ramon Laureano | 25 | OAK |
25 | Jasson Dominguez | 17 | NYY |
26 | Byron Buxton | 26 | MIN |
27 | Charlie Blackmon | 33 | COL |
28 | Kyle Schwarber | 27 | CHC |
29 | Michael Conforto | 27 | NYM |
30 | Jarred Kelenic | 20 | SEA |
31 | Oscar Mercado | 25 | CLE |
32 | Kyle Tucker | 23 | HOU |
33 | Franmil Reyes | 24 | CLE |
34 | Nick Castellanos | 28 | CIN |
35 | Oneil Cruz | 21 | PIT |
36 | Kristian Robinson | 19 | ARI |
37 | Bryan Reynolds | 25 | PIT |
38 | Andrew Benintendi | 25 | BOS |
39 | Lourdes Gurriel | 26 | TOR |
40 | Eddie Rosario | 28 | MIN |
41 | Willie Calhoun | 25 | TEX |
42 | Marcell Ozuna | 29 | ATL |
43 | David Dahl | 26 | COL |
44 | Corbin Carroll | 19 | ARI |
45 | Trent Grisham | 23 | SD |
46 | Trey Mancini | 28 | BAL |
47 | Brennen Davis | 20 | CHC |
48 | Tommy Pham | 32 | SD |
49 | Michael Brantley | 32 | HOU |
50 | Max Kepler | 27 | MIN |
51 | Nick Senzel | 24 | CIN |
52 | Alex Verdugo | 23 | BOS |
53 | Luis Matos | 18 | SF |
54 | Nick Solak | 25 | TEX |
55 | Trevor Larnach | 23 | MIN |
56 | Zac Veen | 18 | ?? |
57 | Heriberto Hernandez | 20 | TEX |
58 | Teoscar Hernandez | 27 | TOR |
59 | Avisail Garcia | 28 | MIL |
60 | Mark Canha | 31 | OAK |
61 | Sam Hilliard | 26 | COL |
62 | Garrett Mitchell | 21 | ?? |
63 | Aaron Hicks | 30 | NYY |
64 | Yasiel Puig | 29 | ?? |
65 | Erick Pena | 17 | KC |
66 | Nomar Mazara | 24 | CHW |
67 | Austin Hays | 24 | BAL |
68 | Andrew McCutchen | 33 | PHI |
69 | Wil Myers | 29 | SD |
70 | Riley Greene | 19 | DET |
71 | Yoshi Tsutsugo | 28 | TB |
72 | Drew Waters | 21 | ATL |
73 | Cristian Pache | 21 | ATL |
74 | Mallex Smith | 26 | SEA |
75 | Alek Thomas | 19 | ARI |
76 | Hedbert Perez | 17 | MIL |
77 | Garrett Hampson | 25 | COL |
78 | Mitch Haniger | 29 | SEA |
79 | Gregory Polanco | 28 | PIT |
80 | Adam Eaton | 31 | WAS |
81 | Ian Happ | 25 | CHC |
82 | Randy Arozarena | 25 | TB |
83 | Heston Kjerstad | 21 | ?? |
84 | David Peralta | 32 | ARI |
85 | Mike Yastrzemski | 29 | SF |
86 | Monte Harrison | 24 | MIA |
87 | Gilberto Jimenez | 19 | BOS |
88 | AJ Pollock | 32 | LAD |
89 | Aristides Aquino | 26 | CIN |
90 | Kyle Lewis | 24 | SEA |
91 | Jaylin Davis | 25 | SF |
92 | JD Davis | 27 | NYM |
93 | Yoelqui Céspedes | 22 | ?? |
94 | Lorenzo Cain | 34 | MIL |
95 | Justin Upton | 32 | LAA |
96 | Shogo Akiyama | 32 | CIN |
97 | Franchy Cordero | 25 | SD |
98 | Seth Brown | 27 | OAK |
99 | Jon Berti | 30 | MIA |
100 | Josh Rojas | 25 | ARI |
101 | Roman Quinn | 26 | PHI |
102 | Danny Santana | 29 | TEX |
103 | JJ Bleday | 22 | MIA |
104 | Jesse Winker | 26 | CIN |
105 | Randall Grichuck | 28 | TOR |
106 | Taylor Trammell | 22 | SD |
107 | Jesus Sanchez | 22 | TB |
108 | Luis Rodriguez | 17 | LAD |
109 | Austin Hendrick | 18 | ?? |
110 | George Valera | 19 | CLE |
111 | Myles Straw | 25 | HOU |
112 | Leody Taveras | 21 | TEX |
113 | Manuel Margot | 25 | TB |
114 | Hunter Bishop | 21 | SF |
115 | Corey Dickerson | 30 | MIA |
116 | Ender Inciarte | 29 | ATL |
117 | Kevin Pillar | 31 | BOS |
118 | Jared Oliva | 24 | PIT |
119 | Jose Martinez | 31 | TB |
120 | Josh Lowe | 22 | TB |
121 | Heliot Ramos | 20 | SF |
122 | Dominic Smith | 24 | NYM |
123 | Brandon Nimmo | 27 | NYM |
124 | Jordyn Adams | 20 | LAA |
125 | Domingo Santana | 27 | CLE |
126 | Seth Beer | 23 | ARI |
127 | Stephen Piscotty | 29 | OAK |
128 | Alexfri Planez | 18 | CLE |
129 | Mike Tauchman | 29 | NYY |
130 | Tyler O’Neill | 24 | STL |
131 | Yusniel Diaz | 23 | BAL |
132 | Alexander Canario | 19 | SF |
133 | Kameron Misner | 22 | MIA |
134 | Brandon Marsh | 22 | LAA |
135 | Raimel Tapia | 26 | COL |
136 | Anthony Santander | 25 | BAL |
137 | Kole Calhoun | 32 | ARI |
138 | Khalil Lee | 21 | KC |
139 | Shin-Soo Choo | 37 | TEX |
140 | Jake Fraley | 24 | SEA |
141 | Daulton Varsho | 23 | ARI |
142 | Hudson Head | 19 | SD |
143 | Misael Urbina | 18 | MIN |
144 | Robert Hassell | 18 | ?? |
145 | Hunter Renfroe | 28 | SD |
146 | Benyamin Bailey | 18 | CHW |
147 | Jason Heyward | 30 | CHC |
148 | Brett Gardner | 36 | NYY |
149 | Harrison Bader | 25 | STL |
150 | Yoenis Cespedes | 34 | NYM |
151 | Oscar Colas | 21 | ?? |
152 | Victor Reyes | 25 | DET |
153 | Josh Naylor | 22 | SD |
154 | Adam Haseley | 24 | PHI |
155 | Pedro Leon | 21 | HOU |
156 | Daniel Johnson | 24 | CLE |
157 | Jeferson Espinal | 17 | ARI |
158 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | 18 | ?? |
159 | Wilderd Patino | 18 | ARI |
160 | Brian Goodwin | 29 | LAA |
161 | Jose Osuna | 27 | PIT |
162 | Daz Cameron | 23 | DET |
163 | Lewis Brinson | 25 | MIA |
164 | Pedro Pineda | 16 | ?? |
165 | Kevin Kiermaier | 30 | TB |
166 | Jackie Bradley Jr. | 30 | BOS |
167 | Tim Lopes | 25 | SEA |
168 | Delino DeShields | 27 | CLE |
169 | Chris Taylor | 29 | LAD |
170 | Clint Frazier | 25 | NYY |
171 | Daniel Cabrera | 21 | ?? |
172 | Leury Garcia | 29 | CHW |
173 | Alex Dickerson | 29 | SF |
174 | Garrett Cooper | 29 | MIA |
175 | Cameron Maybin | 33 | DET |
176 | Jarrod Dyson | 35 | PIT |
177 | Jay Bruce | 33 | PHI |
178 | Jake Bauers | 24 | CLE |
179 | Christin Stewart | 26 | DET |
180 | Phillip Ervin | 27 | CIN |
180 | Dwight Smith Jr. | 27 | BAL |
181 | Travis Demeritte | 25 | DET |
182 | Jasiah Dixon | 18 | PIT |
183 | Kike Hernandez | 28 | LAD |
184 | JaCoby Jones | 27 | DET |
185 | Anthony Alford | 25 | TOR |
186 | Jerar Encarnacion | 22 | MIA |
187 | Ryan McBroom | 28 | KC |
188 | Jordan Luplow | 26 | CLE |
189 | Lane Thomas | 24 | STL |
190 | Bayron Lora | 17 | TEX |
191 | Matt Beaty | 27 | LAD |
192 | Jay Bruce | 33 | PHI |
193 | Tim Locastro | 27 | ARI |
194 | Bubba Starling | 27 | KC |
195 | DJ Stewart | 26 | BAL |
196 | Marcus Smith | 19 | OAK |
197 | Andy Pages | 19 | LAD |
198 | Greg Allen | 27 | CLE |
199 | DJ Peters | 24 | LAD |
200 | Peyton Burdick | 23 | MIA |
Thanks for reading!
I’m @theprospectitch on Twitter and reddit.
Just curious where Seiya Suzuki would fall if he were posted this offseason?
Itch,
Great write-up. I have a couple questions:
1) I really like your Victor Robles ranking. I just acquired him in a keeper. His statcast metrics are terrible but I also think he’s only 22 and almost put up a 20/30 season as a rookie. His BABIP should be somewhat higher than average given his speed too. Can you share what you think he can be and why I shouldn’t be worried about his exit velocity?
2) Ketel is OF eligible in Yahoo so curious where he would slot on this list. I really like him and think his 2019 gains are real with potentially more growth and profit to be had.
Thanks!
LG
Thanks LG!!
2) I think the Starling trade locks Ketel into 2B for a while, in part bc ARI connected CF to his injury, but for 2020 alone, I’d put him just above Meadows at 8.
1) it’s remarkable to me how people are reacting to Robles’s rookie year, which stacks up incredibly well/elite against historical age/level measures.
Exit velo is fine, but it’s descriptive. I get why people think it’s predictive because it can be sticky for prime-age players, but as you said, Robles is not that.
Do you see clase as a future closer? Would you be buying him in dynasty formats now that he will be suspended for ped’s? Just looking for value on the cheap. Thanks
Good question, but now that he’s out for basically all of 2020, I think you can wait on buying him.
He should get a chance at some point, but Karinchak clouds the picture.
Probably Karin who ratted him out in the first place. V Karen of him.
In a 14 team h2h dynasty league i offered ketel marte and max kepler for meadows and voit. Should I take this deal or stand pat?
c sean murphy
1b max muncy
2b ozzie albies
3b rafael devers
ss bo bichette
lf juan soto
cf ronald acuna
rf austin meadows
util yuli gurriel
bn cj cron
bn omar narvaez
na andrew vaughn
na robert puason
na luis matos
na jeter downs
na julio rodriguez
na erick pena
sp brandon woodruff
sp julio urias
sp max scherzer
rp scott oberg
rp ryan pressly
rp brandon kintzler
p patrick corbin
p alex wood
bn kevin gausman
bn carlos rodon
bn deivi garcia
bn sixto sanchez
bn edward cabrera
bn nathan eovaldi
bn matt shoemaker
na luis patino
Tough spot. I feel like you can contend this year, and Meadows to Kepler is a drop, but if Acuña is RF eligible, your base set improves.
He got 16 games in 2019 so it’s just down to the line.
If he’s not RF, I’m in between but would keep talking. Maybe you can get a pick thrown in.
Terrible list – no Arenado or Bregman that I saw and that was just first glance.
hahahahaahahahaha
I see what you did here, and I like it!
Yo Itch,
Not an OF question, but who would you prefer in a dynasty; Josiah Gray or Edward Cabrera? Both are still in play for my next slow draft pick and I can’t quite decide. I am leaning slightly towards Cabrera at the moment. I’d love to get your input though!
Thanks
Howdy OldMilwaukeePounders!
I had them back-to-back at 72 and 73 on my
https://razzball.com/top-200-prospects-for-2020-fantasy-baseball/
But treated it fresh in the moment and came to the same conclusion: ECab by a hair.
Thanks man! Lots of outlets I trust have them grouped very closely. I could take them both, but I’m a Pirates fan and will kick myself if I don’t save a spot for Tahnaj Thomas. He’s got me all heart-eye emoji feeling.
Makes sense to me. I’m really curious to see how this new Pirates approach goes. Might be a real value hotbed if the previous pitching regime was half as bad as it seemed from the outside at times.
Yeah, it sounds like they were that bad. Lol. As someone who was already in on the Thomas hype train, it really left the station for me when Fangraphs ranked Tahnaj right behind Hunter Greene in their 2020 preseason Top 100. They also compared them favorably in athleticism and big time heater.
I was already all in, now I’m wearing the conductors hat, sitting in the engine room of the hype train.
Alex Bregman?
Itch, so I am in the early stages of a dynasty rebuild. My starting lineup has four outfield slots. My outfield consists of: Dahl, Robles, Verdugo, Carlson, JRod, Robinson, and Pena.
1. Would you trade David Dahl or hold him?
2. Would you target an outfielder like Zack Veen with your first pick, or reach for a college pitcher that is an area of need, like Detmers. I will pick in the 6-9 range.
3. Would you hold Eric Peña over a player like jazz Chisholm, Luis Urias, Jose Garcia, or Grayson Rodriguez, knowing the wait will be a long time.
Thanks!
Hi, Phillip!
1. Cop out but depends what I can get. My general instinct is to hold him in 2020 and reassess.
2. Veen all the way.
3. I prefer Jazz bc he’s so close and has plenty loud tools in his own right, but I’d love to find a less painful drop. Maybe you can shop Pena around the room a bit?
Wander Franco will bust?
I disagree?
What is considered a good steals guy? I used to think 25 plus which is a steal every 5 games or so.
I guess this list is really for rotisserie leagues. H2H is really impacted by top tier steals guys and I don’t this 5-10 steal guys are that valuable. It’s hard to find consistency on the bases.
The list is heavy on potential as I see Bruxton on the list. As the old adage goes, you can’t steal first. Broxton could easily play himself into a 4 or 5th outfielder before the year is over.
he’s said specifically that these lists are for RCL type leagues, which are roto 12 teamers.
Ok.???.i asked a h2h question…for curiosity reasons based on his list.
I agree the 5-10 steal guys can be underrated. I think its partly a result of natural mental tiering and using SB to break the tie. Could also be a result of the steep aging curve in the category. People remember players as SB positives even they’re only good for 5. Goldy got this treatment for a while.
Feel like I need 20-plus to start accepting trade-offs in other categories, but even ten can be a good SB contributor if the guy’s raking. Austin Meadows only got 12 last year, but that was a nice bonus. He got caught 7 times and might not run much again, but I’ll bet he gets a little draft day boost for those 12 steals for several seasons whether he returns them again or not.
Buxton would be my pick for best defensive outfielder in baseball. He shrinks the field. That buys him a lot of rope, and I think he was figuring this hitting thing out in 2019.
it’s even harder to get speed in OPS/total bases/slugging category leagues like i’m mostly in too (OBP too). ending up with a lot of 9-12 steal guys seems like a good balanced way though (that’s assuming a season length we ain’t getting). i’d rather be a mid pack steals team than roster dyson chicken legs or mallex in those leagues. you damage too many other categories in more scoring than 5×5 with the non overall good steals guys. i end up with a lot of wong/pham/grisham builds.
I think we agree in general. Maylox can Dyson up some SB heartburn but hurts the rest of the 5×5 body in the process.
Pham has been key, and Wong was a great find last year, but these are bandaids in dynasty that seem more likely to fall off (in SB) than heal that opening in the long haul.
In redraft it’s easier to patch together a mid pack SB team but even then I think the reward for nabbing a Robles or Robert is well worth the cost. Can always stock up on power countables throughout the draft.
One thing that doesn’t make sense to me is that you have CJ Abrams at #20, when he hasn’t even played high-A ball yet…but you expect him to be 20th best dynasty OF in baseball for 2021 & beyond? Or the Jasson Dominguez ranking is another.
And for example you have Benintendi at #38 overall…having CJ Adams Ayer #20 is not an aggressive prediction, it’s unrealistic. Don’t you want to see him play against decent pitching first?
Does Kevin Maitan ring a bell? Another “cant miss” prospect who is the next superstar prospect?
I love these articles & appreciate them very much. But given that most prospects bust or don’t come close to their MILB numbers, these names just really stood out to me.
Thanks, bjz82!
Makes sense those names stood out in part because I’ve been low on Bennintendi for a couple years now, and I’ve been very high on Abrams, comparatively speaking.
Might look overeager a year from now if there’s no minor leagues and Benni hits better in 2020, but two or three years from now, CJ could be untouchable, while Bennintendi was a replacement level player with 13 HR and 10 SB across 615 PA in the 2019 juicy ball times. He could certainly bounce back, but that’s not a great third season.
Two guys who stand out on the list for me are Seth Brown and Josh Rojas are both guys available in my deep dynasty. I also have a Franklin Barretto and Lewis Brinson…I think previously Grey called Barreto and Brinson garbage….lol
I shouldn’t be swayed by spring stats, but both(Brinson and Barreto) limited their K’s this spring, and Brinson seemed to be barrelling ball on the screws. I also wanted to invest in Tyler O’Neil, but he kind of stunk this spring.
So, will Rojas have a role this year beyond a backup? With Cron and Lamb needing at-bats…I just don’t see where Rojas can shine.
Would you rather have Tyler Oneil over Brinson and Barreto if in a h2h keeper league?
Tend to agree with Grey on that one : )
I’m probably not the best guy to ask either as I’d be inclined to drop all three in a lot of setups.
That said they feel like the same type of gamble: power, speed and strikeouts. I’d probably just hold the two you have because they have a better angle on playing time.
RE Brown and Rojas: I think they’re a bigger part of their orgs plans than the fantasy world is giving them credit for. The A’s will want to see what they have and tend to give long leashes to their own guys in part bc economics demand it.
Rojas was just brought back for Greinke, and they have all of his team control at basement pricing. I’d be shocked if they set him aside for the last couple months of Rake Lamb, who becomes a free agent in 2021.
Great list. On J-Rod, seems like you expect him to play most if not all of 2021 in the majors (which I’d love!). Assuming that’s right, what do you expect from him for 2020 + do you see him contributing at all this year?
Thanks Duda!
I am expecting he’ll but in the big leagues for most of 2021, but these Rona times have everything up the in air.
I’d guess we don’t see him at all in 2020 at the moment.
When he does play, I expect he’ll be a four-category plus right away. Most surprising could be batting average, where I think he’s a threat to hit .300 as a rookie.