Dementors in the Outfield: Dynasty Top 200 for 2021 Fantasy Baseball

1. Great list. On J-Rod, seems like you expect him to play most if not all of 2021 in the majors (which I’d love!). Assuming that’s right, what do you expect from him for 2020 + do you see him contributing at all this year?

   • Thanks Duda!

     I am expecting he’ll but in the big leagues for most of 2021, but these Rona times have everything up the in air.

     I’d guess we don’t see him at all in 2020 at the moment.

     When he does play, I expect he’ll be a four-category plus right away. Most surprising could be batting average, where I think he’s a threat to hit .300 as a rookie.

2. Two guys who stand out on the list for me are Seth Brown and Josh Rojas are both guys available in my deep dynasty. I also have a Franklin Barretto and Lewis Brinson…I think previously Grey called Barreto and Brinson garbage….lol

   I shouldn’t be swayed by spring stats, but both(Brinson and Barreto) limited their K’s this spring, and Brinson seemed to be barrelling ball on the screws. I also wanted to invest in Tyler O’Neil, but he kind of stunk this spring.

   So, will Rojas have a role this year beyond a backup? With Cron and Lamb needing at-bats…I just don’t see where Rojas can shine.

   Would you rather have Tyler Oneil over Brinson and Barreto if in a h2h keeper league?

   • Tend to agree with Grey on that one : )

     I’m probably not the best guy to ask either as I’d be inclined to drop all three in a lot of setups.

     That said they feel like the same type of gamble: power, speed and strikeouts. I’d probably just hold the two you have because they have a better angle on playing time.

     RE Brown and Rojas: I think they’re a bigger part of their orgs plans than the fantasy world is giving them credit for. The A’s will want to see what they have and tend to give long leashes to their own guys in part bc economics demand it.

     Rojas was just brought back for Greinke, and they have all of his team control at basement pricing. I’d be shocked if they set him aside for the last couple months of Rake Lamb, who becomes a free agent in 2021.

3. One thing that doesn’t make sense to me is that you have CJ Abrams at #20, when he hasn’t even played high-A ball yet…but you expect him to be 20th best dynasty OF in baseball for 2021 & beyond? Or the Jasson Dominguez ranking is another.

   And for example you have Benintendi at #38 overall…having CJ Adams Ayer #20 is not an aggressive prediction, it’s unrealistic. Don’t you want to see him play against decent pitching first?

   Does Kevin Maitan ring a bell? Another “cant miss” prospect who is the next superstar prospect?

   I love these articles & appreciate them very much. But given that most prospects bust or don’t come close to their MILB numbers, these names just really stood out to me.

   • Thanks, bjz82!

     Makes sense those names stood out in part because I’ve been low on Bennintendi for a couple years now, and I’ve been very high on Abrams, comparatively speaking.

     Might look overeager a year from now if there’s no minor leagues and Benni hits better in 2020, but two or three years from now, CJ could be untouchable, while Bennintendi was a replacement level player with 13 HR and 10 SB across 615 PA in the 2019 juicy ball times. He could certainly bounce back, but that’s not a great third season.

4. it’s even harder to get speed in OPS/total bases/slugging category leagues like i’m mostly in too (OBP too). ending up with a lot of 9-12 steal guys seems like a good balanced way though (that’s assuming a season length we ain’t getting). i’d rather be a mid pack steals team than roster dyson chicken legs or mallex in those leagues. you damage too many other categories in more scoring than 5×5 with the non overall good steals guys. i end up with a lot of wong/pham/grisham builds.

   • I think we agree in general. Maylox can Dyson up some SB heartburn but hurts the rest of the 5×5 body in the process.

     Pham has been key, and Wong was a great find last year, but these are bandaids in dynasty that seem more likely to fall off (in SB) than heal that opening in the long haul.

     In redraft it’s easier to patch together a mid pack SB team but even then I think the reward for nabbing a Robles or Robert is well worth the cost. Can always stock up on power countables throughout the draft.

5. What is considered a good steals guy? I used to think 25 plus which is a steal every 5 games or so.

   I guess this list is really for rotisserie leagues. H2H is really impacted by top tier steals guys and I don’t this 5-10 steal guys are that valuable. It’s hard to find consistency on the bases.

   The list is heavy on potential as I see Bruxton on the list. As the old adage goes, you can’t steal first. Broxton could easily play himself into a 4 or 5th outfielder before the year is over.

   • he’s said specifically that these lists are for RCL type leagues, which are roto 12 teamers.

     • Ok.???.i asked a h2h question…for curiosity reasons based on his list.

   • I agree the 5-10 steal guys can be underrated. I think its partly a result of natural mental tiering and using SB to break the tie. Could also be a result of the steep aging curve in the category. People remember players as SB positives even they’re only good for 5. Goldy got this treatment for a while.

     Feel like I need 20-plus to start accepting trade-offs in other categories, but even ten can be a good SB contributor if the guy’s raking. Austin Meadows only got 12 last year, but that was a nice bonus. He got caught 7 times and might not run much again, but I’ll bet he gets a little draft day boost for those 12 steals for several seasons whether he returns them again or not.

     Buxton would be my pick for best defensive outfielder in baseball. He shrinks the field. That buys him a lot of rope, and I think he was figuring this hitting thing out in 2019.

6. Wander Franco will bust?

   • I disagree?

7. Itch, so I am in the early stages of a dynasty rebuild. My starting lineup has four outfield slots. My outfield consists of: Dahl, Robles, Verdugo, Carlson, JRod, Robinson, and Pena.
   1. Would you trade David Dahl or hold him?
   2. Would you target an outfielder like Zack Veen with your first pick, or reach for a college pitcher that is an area of need, like Detmers. I will pick in the 6-9 range.
   3. Would you hold Eric Peña over a player like jazz Chisholm, Luis Urias, Jose Garcia, or Grayson Rodriguez, knowing the wait will be a long time.

   Thanks!

   • Hi, Phillip!

     1. Cop out but depends what I can get. My general instinct is to hold him in 2020 and reassess.

     2. Veen all the way.

     3. I prefer Jazz bc he’s so close and has plenty loud tools in his own right, but I’d love to find a less painful drop. Maybe you can shop Pena around the room a bit?

8. Alex Bregman?

9. Yo Itch,

   Not an OF question, but who would you prefer in a dynasty; Josiah Gray or Edward Cabrera? Both are still in play for my next slow draft pick and I can’t quite decide. I am leaning slightly towards Cabrera at the moment. I’d love to get your input though!

   Thanks

   • Howdy OldMilwaukeePounders!

     I had them back-to-back at 72 and 73 on my

     https://razzball.com/top-200-prospects-for-2020-fantasy-baseball/

     But treated it fresh in the moment and came to the same conclusion: ECab by a hair.

     • Thanks man! Lots of outlets I trust have them grouped very closely. I could take them both, but I’m a Pirates fan and will kick myself if I don’t save a spot for Tahnaj Thomas. He’s got me all heart-eye emoji feeling.

       • Makes sense to me. I’m really curious to see how this new Pirates approach goes. Might be a real value hotbed if the previous pitching regime was half as bad as it seemed from the outside at times.

         • Yeah, it sounds like they were that bad. Lol. As someone who was already in on the Thomas hype train, it really left the station for me when Fangraphs ranked Tahnaj right behind Hunter Greene in their 2020 preseason Top 100. They also compared them favorably in athleticism and big time heater.

           I was already all in, now I’m wearing the conductors hat, sitting in the engine room of the hype train.

10. Terrible list – no Arenado or Bregman that I saw and that was just first glance.

    • hahahahaahahahaha

      I see what you did here, and I like it!

11. In a 14 team h2h dynasty league i offered ketel marte and max kepler for meadows and voit. Should I take this deal or stand pat?

    c sean murphy

    1b max muncy

    2b ozzie albies

    3b rafael devers

    ss bo bichette

    lf juan soto

    cf ronald acuna

    rf austin meadows

    util yuli gurriel

    bn cj cron

    bn omar narvaez

    na andrew vaughn

    na robert puason

    na luis matos

    na jeter downs

    na julio rodriguez

    na erick pena

    sp brandon woodruff

    sp julio urias

    sp max scherzer

    rp scott oberg

    rp ryan pressly

    rp brandon kintzler

    p patrick corbin

    p alex wood

    bn kevin gausman

    bn carlos rodon

    bn deivi garcia

    bn sixto sanchez

    bn edward cabrera

    bn nathan eovaldi

    bn matt shoemaker

    na luis patino

    • Tough spot. I feel like you can contend this year, and Meadows to Kepler is a drop, but if Acuña is RF eligible, your base set improves.

      He got 16 games in 2019 so it’s just down to the line.

      If he’s not RF, I’m in between but would keep talking. Maybe you can get a pick thrown in.

12. Do you see clase as a future closer? Would you be buying him in dynasty formats now that he will be suspended for ped’s? Just looking for value on the cheap. Thanks

    • Good question, but now that he’s out for basically all of 2020, I think you can wait on buying him.

      He should get a chance at some point, but Karinchak clouds the picture.

      Probably Karin who ratted him out in the first place. V Karen of him.

13. Itch,

    Great write-up. I have a couple questions:

    1) I really like your Victor Robles ranking. I just acquired him in a keeper. His statcast metrics are terrible but I also think he’s only 22 and almost put up a 20/30 season as a rookie. His BABIP should be somewhat higher than average given his speed too. Can you share what you think he can be and why I shouldn’t be worried about his exit velocity?

    2) Ketel is OF eligible in Yahoo so curious where he would slot on this list. I really like him and think his 2019 gains are real with potentially more growth and profit to be had.

    Thanks!
    LG

    • Thanks LG!!

      2) I think the Starling trade locks Ketel into 2B for a while, in part bc ARI connected CF to his injury, but for 2020 alone, I’d put him just above Meadows at 8.

      1) it’s remarkable to me how people are reacting to Robles’s rookie year, which stacks up incredibly well/elite against historical age/level measures.

      Exit velo is fine, but it’s descriptive. I get why people think it’s predictive because it can be sticky for prime-age players, but as you said, Robles is not that.

14. Just curious where Seiya Suzuki would fall if he were posted this offseason?

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