Everyone is clamoring for a Daniel Palka post.  Don’t even try to lie.  I know how hotly contested this is gonna be.  Fine!  Daniel Palka is a bore, but let’s look at this way.  Imagine everyone lining up every sleeper post ever written.  What’s the number one sleeper post of all time?  The November 1995 sleeper post about Brady Anderson and how a 16-homer hitter was about to hit 50 homers?  A 2010 Jose Bautista sleeper post about how a 13-homer hitter was about to hit 54 homers?  A 2000 Darin Erstad sleeper about how he was about to hit .355?  Richard Hidalgo that same year about to hit 44 homers?  Before each of those posts, they were snoozes too.  Hence, sleepers!  So, before you place your iPhone on the ground with this post open so your dog can rub its ass on Palka, let’s hold judgment.  Anyway, what can we expect from Daniel Palka for 2019 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

The way I came to Palka was roundabout.  Not Roundtree, that’s Shaft.  Not while dancing, that’s polka.  I was crushing info on Statcast for average home run distance.  Palka drops bombs on your moms like Everlast.  His home run average distance was 410 feet.  For guys with 27 homers, he was third in the majors.  If curious, Aaron Judge was at 397; Giancarlo was 405; Mike Trout was 407.  That doesn’t mean everything obviously, but if I want home runs, I want room to spare like a talkative older lady who’s thinking about opening a B&B.  For average exit velocity, Palka was ranked 16th overall.  In a dead heat with MVPs, Yelich and Betts.  His velocity on fly balls was 97.4 MPH, that’s 12th in the majors.  Palka drops rocket bombs like he’s Kim Jong-un playing Battleship, but calls it Battership, which is what I’m going to start calling Palka. Raycess?  Or just a little raycess?  “Yo, who sunk my fastball into the 37th row in the upper deck?”  Palka playing Battership!  He had a 7.6 Wins above replacement on fastballs, for what it’s Werth.  In only 417 ABs last year, he hit 27 homers, which was the 10th best HR/AB in the majors, about the same as Aaron Judge.  I’m spending so much time on his power, because he doesn’t have a ton else to his game.  He did steal 24 bags one year in the minors, but it was High-A, and, in that league, catchers are required to count ten Mississippis before throwing down to 2nd.  He could swipe maybe five bags, but feels more like a three steal guy.  His average last year was .240.  That reminds me of the old joke, you know why cans of baked beans only have 239 beans in them?  Because one more and it would be too-farty.  Take it, Highlights!  It’s yours!  Steamer is projecting him for .230, but that feels low for a guy so proficient in Battership with his rocket bombs.  Yes, he had a 34.1% strikeout rate last year, which was awful, but he was a rookie and showed better contact in the minors.  He swung at 34.6% of pitches outside the strike zone, which was 60th in the league, bit better than Jean Segura and Starling Marte to grab two randoms.  He doesn’t make a ton of contact on pitches in the strike zone, though, which is worrisome.  Hey, it can’t be all good, you’d think I was lying to you.  By the way, I love what you did with your rosacea.  See, that’s lying!  Due to his lack of inside-the-strike-zone contact, I’m not going to project him for a high average, but he hit .270+ in multiple stops in the minors with a much better K-rate.  There’s real possibility here for him to put it together.  But, worst case scenario, he still sinks some batterships.  For 2019, I’ll give Daniel Palka the projections of  64/31/84/.247/3 in 479 ABs with a chance for more.

74 Comments
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Micah
Micah
3 years ago

Just traded Thor and Honeywell for Mondesi, Chapman, and Kyle Tucker in my dynasty league. Win, lose, or draw for me?

DonnieB
DonnieB
3 years ago

Do you like Sano or Franco next year? Assuming Machado goes to the Yanks and not the Phils? Thank you

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:

How about neither? Kinda Like a choice between herpes and syphilis

Dave D
Dave D
3 years ago

Btw, I was listening to SAWX radio out of Boston on my way to work this morning and they reported Cora said Betts will bat 2 this year and Benintendi leads off. That’d bump B up a few spots in my ADP. Betts probably bags a few less this year. FYI.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:

I’m no analytics freak but I played enough baseball to know that if Christian Vazquez is hitting ahead of me and I want to score I’m praying he doesn’t get on base otherwise it will probably take a homer to score me and I’ll be stuck on first base not swiping any bags to get into scoring position. Or there’s an out or two already, and I’m thinking about taking extra bag to get myself into scoring position. I bet(Bett?) Benintendi steals about the same amount of bags as Betts did when leading off. Have one of your lowly interns crunch the numbers, please, dear Grey.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:

Because he will hit a single with two outs often and want to get into scoring position Betts cones up and sends the ball ricocheting off the green monster or it drops in front of a panting Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton (insert Orioles outfielders) for a long single. Blah, blah, blah. Either way, a few more at bats means a few more runs scored. Some people overlook that category a bit too.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:

Id be suprised if he did. He went 39 in my DC and ADP is 30. Late30s is where Id start to consider himAbove 32 to me is reaching a bit. Above 20 seems really reaching.

Crime Dog
Crime Dog
3 years ago

Grey you give yourself credit for a lot of what you get right but maybe not enough. Was going through last year’s sleeper posts and forgot about Trevor story. I don’t think you’ve brought that one up or I’ve missed it but that was definitely one of your best calls last year. He scared a lot of people off after 2017 but obviously returned first round value in 2018.

FrankGrimes
FrankGrimes
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:

You’re always bragging.
Trevor story blah blah.
Don’t take kershaw first round.
I win all my leagues every year.
I know the chris Elliot look alike on survivor.
Bitch be humble! Hahaha.

FrankGrimes
FrankGrimes
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:

I kid cuz I love. I’m bitter cuz craving baseball winter meeting fun and all there is Yankee and Dodger speculation YAWN.

William Hung
William Hung
3 years ago

@Grey: Royals now have B-Ham, Merrifield, and Mondesi… O/U 130 SBs between these 3 guys?

William Hung
William Hung
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: I know the pace is ridiculous, but the final 2 weeks of the season with both Merrifield and Mondesi on my team, I had 10+ steals including a robust 14 that final week – just drooling at the potential…

Terrence Mann
Terrence Mann
3 years ago

What’s the word, December Grey? Kareem Hunt kicked my fantasy football team into an early grave so time to start prepping for roto.

Any good flix, net or otherwise?

Brandon Woodruff
Brandon Woodruff
3 years ago

Grey –
Where’s your Corbin Burnes sleeper post? Will I be taking his starting gig? I gotsta kno…

DonnieB
DonnieB
3 years ago

Is Seranthony going to be the closer in PHIL? Seems like he has the stuff. Draft him over Alvarado? Do you like Josh Bell over CJ Cron or Palka? Thanks

Joe Shmoe
Joe Shmoe
3 years ago

Hey Mr. Grey,
Is Roman Quinn the Phillies centerfielder even if they signed McCutchen? Who’s in the Phillies outfield?

knucks
knucks
Reply to  Joe Shmoe
3 years ago

@Joe Shmoe: Quinn, Nick Williams, Cutch, Altherr, Odubel.

Who knows. With Kapler, I’m guessing they rotate every inning like its volleyball or something.

MattH
MattH
3 years ago

Great write-up. Love the sleeper posts and looking forward to January Grey. Happy Holidays!

Dave D
Dave D
3 years ago

Whether or not Palka pans out, this was a great write-up! Palka has the makings of a sleeper, IMO too and you give ample justification for such a speculation. But that just the point… it’s speculation. But speculation is like an at-bat, if your successful 3 times out of 10 you’re an all-star!!! As far as Palka, I think he might even swipe a few more bags than forecast. What I liked about him last year is that he was consistent not streaky. No freaky tears like Scooter Gennett of his early years. I’m with you on Palka being a good late round flyer. Good stuff. Fight the good fight, Sir Grey!!!

Wass
Wass
3 years ago

Grey! Hope all is well, still been reading every article just not commenting. Palka is really intriguing since he is so late in the draft. He’s currently projected around round 20. Are you reaching for him?

Wass
Wass
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: Perfect. Thanks! Was not too keen on reaching for him but I think he is worth drafting and hoping that he turns into something. Seems like he has more potential upside than a lot of late round picks.

Wally Pipp
Wally Pipp
3 years ago

I’m surprised that you left out his 27% Home Run To Fly ball rate leading to his 27 homers last year. Yeah hes got power but hes always had power and really wasn’t close to carrying that high of a home run to fly ball rate ever so, i’ll be surprised if he hits more homers this year than last year even with more at bats. I wouldnt be shocked if his avg came up a bit, but with 34% ks, i wouldnt be surprised if it didnt either.

Then consider 48 players hit 25 homers or more, and 100 players hit 20 or more homers last year, so cheap home runs are easy to come by.

I wouldn’t recomend taking a one dimensional hitter who popped off 27% hr/fb with34% ks and only 6% walks last year before his average draft position.

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Wally Pipp
3 years ago

@Wally Pipp: It’s a sleeper post. He’s a back of the draft pick with upside. He’s hit for power at every stop. I don’t see why the concern over a guy you’re taking a flyer on. He can’t be what people liked about Randal Grichuk?

Wally Pipp
Wally Pipp
Reply to  Cram It
3 years ago

@Cram It: i can not wait for fantasy baseball 2019

Wally Pipp
Wally Pipp
Reply to  Cram It
3 years ago

@Cram It: grichuk is a great comp btw

knucks
knucks
Reply to  Wally Pipp
3 years ago

@Wally Pipp: We know you’ve been crowned the official Razz ombudsman, but just to drive home Cram’s point, as well as the whole reason Grey takes the time to write these… it looks like he’s been going in roughly the 23rd-ish round on average so far. We roster 26 players in my 15 team roto league. Yes its still early of course, so I think that data was only based off of 15 drafts that have occurred.

Anyways, who do you suggest we take a flyer on with pick #276 instead?

knucks
knucks
Reply to  knucks
3 years ago

@knucks: Forgot the letters (word?) NFBC in that one sentence there about the 15 drafts.

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: But, but, but Conforto is being drafted too high!!!!

Hahaha!

zombie
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: Understandably, Wally doesn’t like our productive players being replaced by up-and-comers.

Wally Pipp
Wally Pipp
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: maybe. I wont be drafting a guy with a sub 300 obp and a 6 plus to 1 k to bb ratio but i wish you luck.

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: Ramon Laureano!!! Sleeper City baby!!!

Wally Pipp
Wally Pipp
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: most likely daniel palka.

Ante Galic
Ante Galic
3 years ago

Grey!!!!!

Great write-up!

a. You could sell ice to Eskimos (sorry Inuit!). That said, let the Battership be born!

b. Somewhat agree and somewhat disagree with Earl. What the hell, Earl? More or less, make up your mind.

c. So, if you have SBs locked up you could take a flyer on Palka at like 220 in a 12-team mixed, RCL right?

d. Mark Twain quote of the day for December 11

1. It was summertime in twilight. We were sitting on the porch of the farm house on the summit of the hill. And Aunt Rachel was sitting respectfully below our level on the steps, for she was our servant and colored. She was 60 years old, a cheerful hearty soul. And it was no more trouble for her to laugh than for a bird to sing. I asked her ‘Aunt Rachel, how is it that you have lived 60 years without trouble?’ She said ‘Mister Clements, is you in earnest?’ ‘Why’, I said, ‘I thought that is I meant you can’t have had any trouble. I never heard you sigh, never seen your eye when there wasn’t a laugh in it.’ She said, ‘Has I had any trouble? Mr Clements, I’s gonna tell you then I leave it to you. I was born down amongst the slaves.’

2. “Potlicker and cornbread was fed to us chillun, out of big old wooden bowls. Two or three chillun et out of de same bowl. Grown folks had meat, greens, syrup, cornbread, ‘taters and de lak. ‘Possums! I should say so. Dey cotch plenty of ’em and atter dey was kilt ma would scald ’em and rub ’em in hot ashes and dat clean’t ’em jus’ as pretty and white. OO-o-o but dey was good. Lord, Yessum! Dey used to go fishin’ and rabbit huntin’ too. Us jus’ fotched in game galore den, for it was de style dem days. Dere warn’t no market meat in slavery days. Seemed lak to me in dem days dat ash-roasted ‘taters and groundpeas was de best somepin t’eat what anybody could want. ‘Course dey had a gyarden, and it had somepin of jus’ about evvything what us knowed anything ’bout in de way of gyarden sass growin’ in it. All de cookin’ was done in dem big old open fireplaces what was fixed up special for de pots and ovens. Ashcake was most as good as ‘taters cooked in de ashes, but not quite.” [Aunt Rachel, Mark Twain]

3. [of the study his sister-in-law made for him]. It is the loveliest study you ever saw. Octagonal with a piqued roof. Each face filled with a spacious window, perched in complete isolation on the top of an elevation that commands leagues of valley and city and retreating ranges of distant blue hills. It is a cozy nest and just room in it for a sofa, a table and three or four chairs. And when the storm sweeps down the remote valley and the lightning flashes behind the hills beyond and the rain beats upon the roof over my head, imagine the luxury of it.

4. All the summer world was bright and fresh and the sun rose upon a tranquil world and beamed down like a benediction.

5. The fountains of my great deep are broken up and I have rained reminiscences for 4 and 20 years. The old life has swept before me like a panorama, the old days have trooped by and their old glory again. The old faces have looked down out of the mists of the past, old footsteps have sounded in my listening ears, old hands have clasped mine, old voices have greeted me. And the songs I love ages and ages ago have come wailing down the centuries.

Cheers,
Ante

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: Grey!!!

Will keep tryin’!! Yeah, will love the Palka Polka in 2019. ChiSox are goin’ nowhere again this year so he’ll have carte blanche to do what he wants to do. Also, the ChiSox also allowed Adam Dunn to really pile up the cow dung in 2011!

Cheers,
Ante

Ante Galic
Ante Galic
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: Grey!!

Ha! Sounds like the title of your sex tape!!! Good luck with that.

Always room for optimism with the Pale Hose.

Cheers,
Ante

Ante Galic
Ante Galic
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: Grey!!!

Pale hose, champagne on ice and extra-rich dark chocolate (90%)…the wedding suite trifecta!

Cheers,
Ante

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: I’ve got a pale hose lol

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
3 years ago

A chance for more? But what about a chance for less?!!?

LenFuego
LenFuego
Reply to  Harley Earl
3 years ago

@Harley Earl: There’s always a chance for less … but not every player has a chance for more.

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: Haha!!

I’m on board the Hype Train baby!!