Last week, we talked about some hotter starts. Well, guys, not all starts are created equal. All of these guys were expected to do well and drafted in the top 100 in most leagues. Guess what? They’re not doing well. Who should we worry about?
Read this prospects piece first. There is hope!
Also, go ahead and hit the subscribe button. It’s really good stuff, especially with the addition of Razzbot. Just do it and thank me later.
Bregman’s plate approach has been outstanding. He’s in the league leaders for OSwing %, basically meaning his swing decisions are top-notch. He simply does not swing at many pitches off the plate. He could, however, stand to swing at more pitches in the zone. Bregs is only swinging at 58% of strikes thrown. Seems to be a patient approach, but he’s taking a few too many strikes.
There’s no need to worry about Bregman. When he does swing, he is making solid contact, squaring up balls in the 98th percentile league-wide. An adjustment is coming and could happen at any time. Once he settles in and swings more in zone, the doubles and occasional HR will start flying.
Verdict: Don’t worry about Bregman. He’ll return his draft day value. Not talking major breakout, but no reason for concern.
Teams are pitching around the young third baseman, spiking his walk rate from last year’s six percent to 13 percent this season so far. That helps the OBP but not the home run output, as he has only two. But the walk rate is much more sustainable and shows growth as a hitter as long as it sustains. As an added bonus, Chandler Simpson is batting leadoff with Caminero in the 2-hole. Speed guys are good for the ribbies.
Verdict: No worries. Hakuna Matata.
Kurtz is swinging and missing too much. Last year’s 30% strikeout rate was juuuuuust acceptable. This year’s 38% and 42% whiff rate are not. That would help explain the .204 batting average and lack of home runs (one on the season). The batting average was always a concern, people. Projections have him at .252 for the season, and we may have a lower floor than we first thought. The guy could have a .220 season or two going forward.
He is at least walking at an elite 22% rate, so there’s that. The other factor is that Oakland has played most of their games on the road. Kurtz hit only .179 with one home run in his 39 road at bats. Oakland, and by Oakland I mean Sacramento, has a great hitters park.
Verdict: Worried, but only if you were counting on second round value from him. If you expect .250 with 30 HR you are fine.
Guys who switch leagues after signing mega contracts often struggle. Alonso is hitting just .190 and a paltry one home run, but he’d probably have more if the Orioles moved their fences in to the infield dirt, but with a strikeout rate near 30 that’s not a given either. Last year’s .272 batting average was an outlier in his past four and he won’t get to that point this year, especially given the slow start. I’m proud to have not drafted Pete anywhere.
For some good news, his underlying metrics don’t reflect a decline physically. The plate approach will catch up to the skills eventually. Question for fantasy managers is, how long does that take?
Verdict: Worried. Seems like a down year for Alonso overall, but a chance for a classic buy-low.
Josh Naylor had a hot streak and signed in a park that suppresses offense the most in the league. He’s down to 12th at first base according to the rest of season player rater. Stolen bases? Likely, he won’t steal 30 bases again, given that he’s literally the slowest runner in the league.
All of this adds up to one of the bigger busts in draft season.
Verdict: Worried, obviously. Yes, I know he hit two dingers last night. It’s the average that I’m concerned with.
Busch just went through an 0-30 stretch. He broke it with a single, which makes it a 1-31 stretch. If you added 30 hitless at bats to Busch’s stats last season, he would have totaled a .247 batting average instead of the .261 he finished with. Adding to the damage, his ROS projection on Razzball is .242.
The other caveat with owning Busch is the platoon angle. The Cubs don’t let him hit full time against lefties. They made Matt Shaw learn a new position on the fly, and Carson Kelly had to pretend he’s a 1B just to get Busch out of the lineup. We’re gonna look back at 2025 as the career year for Michael Busch. He’s more of a .245/25 HR guy going forward.
Verdict: Panicked. Run away!
You should probably run away after reading this article, too. Is there anyone else you’re wondering about? Leave me a note, and I’ll tell you my take!
Josh Naylor won’t finish above .200 this season, but what is even more serious is he swings at everything, can’t field and looks like he don’t care.
How do you really feel?
I think he’s been highly overrated, especially given hat he hasn’t tried a steal
Okamoto conserns? Holding out hope, whilst House flirts from Washington, Shaw in Chicago & even LA Muncy are all tempting subs. Thanks!
Muncy is probably the safest and Shaw might have upside if he gets a steady role. I would also flirt with House
How about Vinnie P? I’ve never been a huge fan of his but Grey was big on him this season and that’s who I got stuck with.
I’m still in on Vinny. Hit .177 last April before going .344 in May with 4 dingers. I think he’s just a slow starter.
I dropped him late last April/early May for the same, and kicked myself all summer with every dinger.
That’s a lot of bruising! Like over 30 kicks