Chase Burns, 2026 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

So, I’m not sure if Chase Burns is a sleeper, a rookie, both or something in-between we haven’t discovered yet. Maybe we’re discovering it on our own right now. We’re a bunch of fantasy baseball Magellans. Look at me, I’m wearing a puffy hat like Magellan and I’m in a ship with a handheld telescope. “What’s that, Cape Horn? Meh, who cares! I’m spotting Chase Burns off the coast of Three Rivers. What rivers are they? I don’t know, I’m not a river explorer, I’m a fantasy baseball explorer.” Around mid-November, when I was still knee-deep in my rookie outlook series for 2026 fantasy baseball, I asked Itch if Chase Burns was a rookie to see if I should do a post on him, and Itch said, “He’s not a rookie,” and I said, “Cool,” because I didn’t feel like doing another rookie outlook post, and didn’t look that much further into whether he’s a rookie, technically. I think he might be, due to innings, but maybe not due to service time. It’s honestly who cares for our purposes, unless your league requires rookie eligibility for one of you guys or something. Welp, whatever on rookie or not, because guess what? He’s also a sleeper! So, what can we expect from Chase Burns for 2026 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

PSYCHE! All of my 2026 fantasy baseball rankings are on the Patreon. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out next month. Anyway II, the Chase Burns sleeeper:

Backtracking two years, here’s Itch on Chase Burns going into this year, “Burns set a new single-season NCAA record with 191 strikeouts in 100 innings for Wake Forest. That’s the kind of math I can get behind. Seems like he’s striking out about two guys per innings, which seems like a good plan. His slider just isn’t something college hitters are used to seeing. Isn’t something any hitter is used to seeing, really. Plays like an 80 when he’s commanding it, which he usually is. Usually commands his 100 mph fastball well, too, and while he’s got a little Kirby in him in the sense that people hit his fastball more than makes obvious sense, he’s not doomed to that fate, given his incredible athleticism and clear growth arc across time, and my fist would like to arc into Grey’s head.” I’m actually scared.

Last year, things didn’t dampen enthusiasm. Chase Burns was in the top 50 fantasy baseball prospects, and Chase Burns went 66 IP in the minors with a 1.77 ERA and 12.1 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9. Ludicrous isn’t just the name of a rapper, it’s also that minor league line. He was promoted and Burns then went 43 1/3 IP, 13.9 K/9 (!!!), 3.3 BB/9 (not bad), and 4.57 ERA, which is gnarly, but with a 2.68 xFIP and a .360 BABIP and 64 LOB%, which are two absurdly unlucky numbers.

Since this is somewhere in-between a sleeper and a rookie post, let’s look at a few pitches to get the ol’ juices flowing:

Chase Burns struck out all 3 Yankees he faced in his 1st Major League inning ? pic.twitter.com/t4N4Q1DrwG

— MLB (@MLB) June 24, 2025

Got hitters saying, “Good evening, good afternoon and good morning,” because they’re so bewildered, they’re saying things backwards. His Statcast page is equally delightful. One thing that I don’t really believe in is the “this guy is similar to that guy” on Statcast, because it’s usually something like, Juan Soto is most like Adam Frazier, or something dazzlingly dumb, but who am I to throw away something yummy when it fits my purpose, so check this out:

Oh, he’s like Jacob deGrom and Hunter Greene? Okay, then daddy is listening and featuring your goofy “Similar as” thing! Burns’s slider was thrown 35% of the time and had a .203 BAA. El oh el, my acronym-loving friends. He threw a pitch last year 35% of the time (a lot) and it had a .203 BAA. Yes, that info was given to you twice, because it’s so amazing. His change that was thrown 6%? .182 BAA. His 99 MPH fastball was thrown the rest of the time? .248 BAA. So, hitters can only hit his 100 MPH gas? Okay, good luck with that. This guy is possibly the best rookie this year, who is not a rookie or a rookie? I don’t know.

According to Steamer projections, Chase Burns is 12th best for K-BB%. I’ve said this before but here it is again: K-BB% is the most basic distillation of pitcher ranks, i.e., if you threw out your rankings the day of your draft, and only drafted by K-BB, you’d be more or less fine. Here’s the top five (starters) for K-BB% to prove my point: Skubal, Crochet, Skenes, Sale, and deGrom. Also, Steamer hates rookies. So, Chase Burns is essentially the 12th best starter for a projections system that hates rookies, which he may or may not be. Chase Burns could be drafted in the top 50 overall, and it would not be crazy. For rookie? Which he is not, hence: He’s a sleeper! For 2026, I’ll give Chase Burns projections of 9-5/3.49/1.18/168 in 132 IP with a chance for much more.