When someone says “therefore” in real-life conversation, you know they’re full of shit. Byron Buxton‘s 2022 projections are a big, giant “therefore.” People are expecting him to “therefore” for six months straight. He will need to beat the longest previous “therefore,” which was Luke Voit in 2020. The longest “therefore” in history is O.J. Simpson from birth until June of 1994. A “therefore”record that might not ever be broken. Some say that OJ’s “therefore” is the Cal Ripken consecutive game streak of therefores. A “therefore” to end all therefores. Therefores happen, don’t get me wrong. I therefore’d once in conversation. Was out to dinner with Cougs, and a couple we were with was talking about how their sister was doing an upcoming Ted Talk — an actual Ted Talk, not my dog, Ted, talking, which would actually be the best Ted Talk ever — and this friend’s sister was about to do a Ted Talk about ants, and I said, “Don’t tell me anymore. Your sister is giving the Ted Talk? Therefore, I will be watching.” And, boy, was I lying my ass off! Like I’m watching a Ted Talk, let alone one about ants! See, “therefore” is the giveaway. Next time you’re hanging with your friends say “therefore” and those friends, if they’re real friends, will no longer be friends with you, because you will be lying to them. Friends keep it real. They will stop being friends with some friends like ones using “therefore” in conversation. So, last year, Byron Buxton’s statline was 50/19/32/.306/9 in 235 ABs, and his projections are saying therefore/therefore/therefore/therefore/therefore. Therefore, please just stop the lies. So, what can we expect from Byron Buxton for 2022 fantasy baseball and what makes him overrated?

So, I was in a draft the other day and Byron Buxton went in the third round and I knew at that point, I had to write this post. Hey, I’m all for prorating. Mr. and Mrs. Prorater come over to our house all the time for dinner. They always bring something too. Last time, rather than one cheesecake, they brought a tub of cream cheese and a box of graham crackers, saying we could get two-point-six cheesecakes out of their supplies. Great people those Proraters. Even they think Byron Buxton’s projections are absurd.

He’s going to be 28 years old, and his hitter projections are 28/14/.266 in 475 ABs. That’s our projections, and they’re conservative compared to most site’s projections. Most have him down for 33/20/.275 in 520-ish ABs. First off, and this is kinda gonna be first off, second off and third off, and almost 4th off, his high for at-bats in a season is 462. That was in 2017, when he played 140 games. Sure, throw out 2020, even though he wasn’t healthy for that year either, but he’s been in the league for seven years and hasn’t ever had a full season. Predicting injuries are a tough thing, and usually fraught with errors. Just because someone was injured before does not mean they will be injured again. Byron Buxton? He’s never been healthy! Like, literally never.

If Byron Buxton does get a full season, his projections are not Adalberto Mondesi either. If the latter sexpot gets a 150-game season, the projections go bingo-bango off-the-charts and give Mondesi a 20/70 season, saying, “This is the greatest season ever.” Byron Buxton’s projections of 33/20/.275 are solid, don’t get me wrong. Or even 28/14/.266 as Rudy’s projections say, but they aren’t pie-in-the-sky hopes and/or dreams, even if you concede 150 games. Also, are these even the most likely scenario projections? I bet the next paragraph has something to say about that!

So, Byron Buxton’s swing got flatter last year. Better for average; his xBA was .300. Yet, his fly balls were down — 38.4%, but that’s not in the sewer with Christian Yelich. Buxton can get a 20+ HR/FB% and reach the seats 20+ times, but 30+times? He would need 154 fly balls to edge above 30 homers with a 20% HR/FB. His high is 113 fly balls. His HR/FB% in his career is 15.4%. So you have to throw out his previous high in fly balls by a lot, throw out his career HR/FB% by a lot and swing changes and yadda and–okay! Maybe he can exceed all expectations, but we are giving Byron Buxton the benefit of the doubt in literally every category. Byron Buxton’s career high in power was 19 homers. Eddie Rosario hit 32 homers in a season; he has a career average of .275, and stole 11 bags last year. Rosario has also recorded more at-bats every single season since they both were promoted in 2015. Oh, and Rosario is being drafted 120 picks later.

My fear is Byron Buxton won’t stay healthy. Yes, first through almost fourth-most. Even if Buxton stays healthy, I don’t see how we can just project him for numbers way beyond anything he’s ever done, and I’m the first person to project players way beyond anything they’ve ever done! That’s my trademark! I’m always looking beyond the numbers, but he’s never even hit 20 homers in a year and we’re projecting him for 33? He’s hitting .248 in 1615 career at-bats and now we’re expecting .275? This guy isn’t some 22-year-old who’s just coming into his own. He’s a 28-year-old and we know what to expect. Therefore, I stamp him a schmohawk! Hey, wait a minute…

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Rod
Rod
3 months ago

Would you trade B Buxton for M Semien straight up?

Rod
Rod
Reply to  Grey
3 months ago

Thanks, Grey! Even in a Dynasty League?

Jeff Graup
Jeff Graup
3 months ago

ive grabbed in a best ball (points league) a team of grey all stars

1b olsen
ss trevor story

of robert
of acuna
of oneil dropped so i grabbed him

sp alcantra
looking to grab a 2nd sp in round 7 but all these SP’s were taken

webb taken
darvish taken
castillo taken
musgrove taken
cease taken
montas taken
rogers taken

still on board i would consider:

morton
alek monoah
shane mclanahan
mahle
verlander

question 1 :

lothario who would you grab the old man charlie or verlander as my #2 or do i grab shan mcnasty or monoah

question 2

on the quick turn around in round 8 5 picks after my 7th rd grab whomever left on the list above or a snell/baz as my SP3

Joey
Joey
Reply to  Grey
3 months ago

I have to say you have been my rock in ff bb the last 5 years the fact I can ask u a question at 3:25 on a fri n you answer at 3:26 is worth having a sub to razzball

U do it for free

I needed to reupped my sub on razz be4 this draft n forgot but watched your tutorials last night on n was kicking myself all the ? u get every day on here are answered with the RAZZBALL APP

So thank you Grey!

When Can I buy u a beer!!!

Jeff Graup
Jeff Graup
Reply to  Grey
3 months ago

just paid for a sub!!! got morton waiting on my #8th rd

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
3 months ago

First Friday in March and im already looking forward to buy and sell. Fuck this lockout. Ffs, just agree on a CBA and play ball. Damn shame owners dont give two fucks about us fans. Not sure after 2020, they could be so cold hearted. How much money do you need to make you happy, ya greedy bastards.

Bbboston
Bbboston
3 months ago

Grey,

ALOnly 5×5 8 keeper auction league. Please rank all these guys, assuming a $10 keeper cost for all
Kirilloff
Baddoo
Brujan
Frankie Montas

Will
Will
3 months ago

SIR – over his last 100 actual games (365 at bats), Buxton produced a line of .288 / 32 / 59 / 11 with 69 runs scored. Actual games, actual at bats over the last two seaons. Prorated to 150 games and 548 at bats (yeah, I know) that line moves to .288 / 48 / 89 / 17 with 104 runs scored.

Will he ever play 150 games and get to 548 at bats? Who knows. But just the chance for a line like that is tantalizing. Even a partial season at that level of production would be helpful as you can always sub in someone during Buxton’s inevitable DL time off.

Our league draft is two weeks from today. Am I keeping Buxton?

(drum roll)

As of now, YES.

Will he burn me again?

(drum roll)…….

Will
Will
Reply to  Grey
3 months ago

Yep, Buxton is my Kryptonite. Every year I think this will be the year he puts it all together over a full season. Last year the first month of the season when both he and Trout were knocking the cover off the ball my fantasy team in late April had 95 out of a possible 100 points. LOL. Went a little south after that.

Last edited 3 months ago by Will
slimjim13
slimjim13
3 months ago

Grey I’ve never done a draft league before always auctions but got in a RCL drafted from #9. How did I do I feel I’m weak in the OF.

C Stephens
1B Aureu
2B Albies
3B Ramirez
SS Polanco
CI Candelario
MI Swanson
OF Eloy, Duval, Baddoo, Kelenic, J Sanchez
UT Framil
P Bassitt, Peralta, Musgrove, Lynn, Ober, Sandoval, Javier
RP Gallegos, T Rogers
BN Schwindel, Brujan, D Castillo

Billy Angel
Billy Angel
3 months ago

Speaking of 11 teams-I was attempting to “watch” a RCL draft a couple nights ago & my big clown fingers added my to the league in round 20 as the 12th team. Good grief!?
Streaming pitchers & attention to early season break outs is the mo I will be using. Any thoughts from the expert Razz crowd would be valuable. Grey would you draft Buxton at all?
Thank you

VinWins
VinWins
Reply to  Grey
3 months ago

I checked out this league and found an unowned team, so I joined. I now own Tatis along with both Salvador Perez and Grandal. My pitching includes Beiber, Castillo, Bauer, Clevinger, Fried, Gonsolin, Pablo Lopez, Logan Gilbert, Marquez, Mize, and Freddy P. No RPs, though.

VinWins
VinWins
Reply to  Grey
3 months ago

haha. Would not be shocking.

Ryan741
Ryan741
3 months ago

Grey, need a trade opinion in a points keeper league involving Buxton. I would be trading pick 1.1/4.3/Clevenger (15th round keep) for pick 1.4/2.4/Buxton (8th). I know the first 2 picks will be Cole and Scherzer, so that would leave Freeman or Betts at 1.4, I could then also flip Woodruff(14th) and Buxton for Albies (11th) and Manoah (15th). Or I could trade separately Woodruff for a 3rd and 4th round pick a trade a 18th round pick for Corey Seager to keep him in the 14th. I’m assuming you will say trade 1.1 for sure, what about the other 2 scenarios?

Ryan741
Ryan741
Reply to  Grey
3 months ago

Essentially, yes. Although I am trading Woodruff also who is a 14th round keep.

Ryan741
Ryan741
Reply to  Grey
3 months ago

Would you trade Woodruff for a 3rd round pick and either Baz or McClanahan?

Ryan741
Ryan741
Reply to  Grey
3 months ago

But I’m assuming you’d do Yordan for Woodrufd straight up with both of them being the same keep round?

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
3 months ago

First Bieber, then Springer, now Bux. Gonna change my team name to the Non Malicious Schmohawks. Lol

edietrich1962
edietrich1962
3 months ago

Okay my Razzball friends, tell me what I did wrong with this RCL draft (I admit I was not really well prepped for it):

c – Elias Diaz
1b – Matt Olson
2b – Tommy Edman
3b – Manny Machado
ss – Bo Bichette
ci – Luke Voit
mi – Gleyber Torres
of – Eloy Jimenez, Jessie Winker, JD Martinez, Adolis Garcia, Rameil Tapia
util – Gio Urshela
sp – Woodruff, Joe Musgrove, Shane Baz, Chris Bassit, Marcus Stroman, Jesus Luzardo
rp – Edwin Diaz, Will Smith, Blake Treinan
bench – Yuri Gurriel, Kyle Lewis, Vidal Brujan

VinWins
VinWins
Reply to  edietrich1962
3 months ago

If you did anything wrong, you will get a chance to correct it, because it appears there were only 11 teams drafting. Someone must have dropped out, because the league had been full earlier.

MIKE WELCH
MIKE WELCH
3 months ago

I live in Minnesota and am a huge Twins fan. Trying to figure out Buxton has left me totally perplexed. I still don’t know what he is as a hitter. It has seemed like he had poor pitch recognition, which left him looking ridiculous. That seemed to change last year which gives me optimism. The injuries? Who knows? One thing people forget is that in roto, the games missed are not a dead spot. If you’re active, the numbers can be replaced from your roster or rotating batty calls.

The Harrow
The Harrow
Reply to  MIKE WELCH
3 months ago

also greatly depends on how many IR slots you have. i’ve seen leagues even still during corona times that stick to like 2-4, which is crazy in corona times (injuries also FAR up in the last 2+ years with corona stuff, weird schedules, shorter camps, 10 day min IR stints etc). so buxton in a roto with max IR’s WAY more valuable than a h2h with 2 IR slots. also way more valuable the shallower the league (FA is far better for replacing)

Jerome Bishop
Jerome Bishop
3 months ago

H2h we draft 9 bats, 4SP 1CL 10 bench
If I draft SP in the 4th, 5th and 6th, is that overkill on SP? In a mock draft that was the likes of Sale, Lynn, Morton. Thanks!

RoarOf84
RoarOf84
Reply to  Jerome Bishop
3 months ago

H2H cats or points? If cats, it’s overkill. You could get away with just two arms in that range. If points, depending on the scoring settings and what’s more valuable, I could see it being more viable.

Overall, with only the four starting spots for SPs, I think their value gets pushed down.

Jerome Bishop
Jerome Bishop
Reply to  RoarOf84
3 months ago

It’s 6×5(ops). I was hoping to counter the pocket aces crowd by getting 3 as apposed to two aces. Albeit all lower tier aces.

RoarOf84
RoarOf84
Reply to  Jerome Bishop
3 months ago

Which is the 6 and which is the 5? Hitting or pitching? I’d focus more on whichever side has more categories.

Draft might have one pocket aces guy at most. Besides it not being a super great strategy, even when grabbing the absolute top guys, it’s even harder to execute if you’re doing it with say Woodruff/Wheeler vs. Burnes/Buehler.

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
3 months ago

Grey!!!!!

Awesome!!

a. Great read. Had Bux last year for the first and last time. Imperative to manage his IL stints well. To know when he will go on the IL or when his status will be updated by fantrax is pure science fiction. Better to sign up Adolis and lock him in for the season.

b. Therefore ipso facto is also in the BS category, right?

c. Have a nice weekend!

d. Norm MacDonald quote of the day for March 4, 2022

‘Hertz rental car company announced that they would purchase 520000 vehicles, increasing its worldwide fleet by 20%. In addition, they’ll try to find a new spokesman who won’t kill his wife.’

e. Marx Brothers quote of the day for March 4, 2022

But I guess that’s the way it is. When you lose something irreplaceable, you don’t mourn for the thing you lost you mourn for yourself.’

Harpo

Cheers,
Ante

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
Reply to  Grey
3 months ago

Grey!!!!

a. I saw how you referred up top to OJ and I swear the next joke up from Weekend Update season 20, episode 16 (John Goodman host) after yesterday’s quote about healthier lungs after you quit smoking was this one. Check it out if you don’t believe me!

b. First RCL coming up this Sunday (RCL#8). Got my cheat sheet prepped. Say a little prayer for me at noon EST. The room is full, tell Rudy and Truss we don’t need any of Rudy’s bots to join our league. No one can beat Rudy’s bots in any league.

Cheers,
Ante

toolshed
toolshed
3 months ago

I have to comment on the lockout because I don’t see a sense of urgency. I don’t see the initiative necessary to bridge the gap. I fear we are only in the early stage of a prolonged dispute.

I know this sounds barbaric but what if MLB and MLBPA tried meeting five (5) days a week until they worked out a deal? That kind of sounds like what normal working stiffs do every freaking week. Oh, the horror of it…that means somewhere between 40-60 hours a week.

What if and I mean this is a big what if…what if they tried meeting like that in December?

packers2018
packers2018
Reply to  toolshed
3 months ago

I hear you, toolshed. 8 hour days, 5 days a week! That would be easy for most working stiffs.
Lot of ego and greed in that negotiating room.

The Harrow
The Harrow
Reply to  Grey
3 months ago

ding ding ding, and a lot of them haven’t ever had to cowtow to employees, ever. they sick their lawyers on issues they have. if somebody’s got the kind of ego (a large possible with these types) that literally refuses to back down over anything AND is worth billions, those people can lose hundreds of thousands easy, can just invest elsewhere.

LennyDykstraIsJustMisUnderstood
LennyDykstraIsJustMisUnderstood
Reply to  toolshed
3 months ago

worked on a couple labor negotiations, it generally doesn’t seem to work that way face time usually has diminishing marginal returns and ends up wasting time. you have to leave and regroup.

both sides are greedy seems mostly the players at this point

i does’nt matter to MLB/PLayers the base fans will watch no matter what….the casual fans have already left and they come back when their team makes a deep playoff run.

bottom line they will get their payday either way

toolshed
toolshed
Reply to  LennyDykstraIsJustMisUnderstood
3 months ago

I understand negotiations don’t work that way. There are many issues on the table and they can’t fix them all. They certainly can’t fix them In one day or weekend retreat. I just think they need to spend more time working together and discussing the issues with regular cadence given the depth of the issues. The meet and review a proposal every so often often / hope it sticks approach is not working. This approach generally only works if one side caves or gets beaten into submission.

LennyDykstraIsJustMisUnderstood
LennyDykstraIsJustMisUnderstood
Reply to  Grey
3 months ago

I see Grey, I see

ThePoonTycoon
ThePoonTycoon
Reply to  LennyDykstraIsJustMisUnderstood
3 months ago

“both sides are greedy seems mostly the players at this point”

excuse me, but can you explain how it’s “the players at this point”? please go read up on the numerous articles laying out the bullshit games being played by the owners. listen to the players when they tweet out their frustrations at the owners for not actually offering anything and just shuffling the numbers around. ask yourself if you’d be “greedy” for standing up for financial fair share when your employer wants to lock you into an underpaid (effectively) 6-7 year contract through your best earning years and your industry provides no viable alternatives for using your skill set and all the while your employer is pocketing record profits and watching the company value shoot through the roof? but it’s the players that are the fucking assholes here?

and if you think i’m gonna give a flying fuck about some 40 year old has beens and some AAAA never will be scrubs playing beer league baseball, then the owners have bet wrong.

Last edited 3 months ago by ThePoonTycoon
The Harrow
The Harrow
Reply to  ThePoonTycoon
3 months ago

it’s very easy to believe “players are the issue” why might that be? well who’s friends with and/or has ownership in such things as any media that outputs anything an average fan can see/read/listen to? who gets spread what they like.

what is funny though, for as fucked up as the baseball economics are (and always have been) and IF these players are so much about sticking together and protecting the fruits of their labor, why in the shit did they agree to the previous CBA’s, including all the stuff they are worried about now. they had to agree in the past about that stuff. so when you hear players say stuff like “we’re doing it for the future players” that is literally an admission that they didn’t (and/or the earlier players didn’t) do that every previous time they agreed to this shit.

The Harrow
The Harrow
Reply to  The Harrow
3 months ago

so it’s some mix of

  • previous MLBPA CBA agreements clearly the players didn’t give too much shits about the future (agreed to horrible arrangements so they could get paid quickly)
  • owners figured out the leaks that they could and have exploited, which i’m sure any smart economist could’ve foreseen would come (so it’s possible previous MLBPA when they agreed to previous CBA’s were just ignorant, but i’d stick with point 1 being the case over this)
The Harrow
The Harrow
Reply to  The Harrow
3 months ago

i’m not suggesting anybody should be saying “players are the issue” just how that likely gets into somebody’s head. they themselves can often relate to players (maybe they themselves were once decent high school/college baseball players), but of course cannot relate to owners ever, nor can they relate to a player making giant multiples of money than they (or anybody they’ve met) make, so the jealousy creeps into that a lot of the time. mix that with media sites owned by friends of these owners (or at least have similar goals) shoving out whatever stuff they want and/or are told to and yep, you’ll get people siding with owners some % of the time. it makes no logical sense (but how many other things happen like that from media leaning people towards stuff)

WYSIATI

toolshed
toolshed
Reply to  Grey
3 months ago

Agreed. That is why this thing isn’t going to get solved right away unless the players give up. That surrender probably won’t happen early.

Phil
Phil
Reply to  toolshed
3 months ago

Agreed, toolshed. I hate Manfred so much, as well as these owners. They don’t give a fig about the fans or the game.