In this post, which the powers that be (me) have started calling: Searching For Sugar, Man. Not Searching for Sugar Man, the documentary that won the Academy Award. This is putting Paul Skenes into a giant sugar packet and searching for more of that. Could have called it Searching for the Next Paul Skenes, I suppose. In this Searching For Sugar, Man, it’s just me flipping through minor league stats for a great pitcher. As I said in my Jackson Jobe fantasy the other day, it is going to be very difficult to find another Paul Skenes, since we’ve played roughly one hundred-ish years of baseball and there’s been about five rookie pitchers who have been as good as Skenes. No big deal, just go out and give us something we only see every 20 or so years. As mentioned earlier this year when discussing Skenes, I tried to come up with the best rookie seasons for pitchers, and I think it’s 1. Mark Fidyrich 2. Fernando Valenzuela (RIP) 3. Dwight Gooden 4. Tom Seaver 5. Jose Fernandez, 6. John Montefusco, then Paul Skenes. Bubba Chandler could be great and worth rostering for fantasy, and not come anywhere close to approaching that list. So, what can we expect from Bubba Chandler for 2025 fantasy baseball?
First, here’s some clips of Bubba Chandler:
No big deal, just Bubba Chandler taking a perfect game into the 6th with 10 punchies for the @indyindians ?
The @Pirates‘ top-ranked prospect has a 1.59 ERA since arriving at the Minors’ highest level last month. pic.twitter.com/zIB0EE4swp
— Minor League Baseball (@MiLB) September 11, 2024
Then, the dazzles continued:
Bubba Chandler’s (@Pirates No. 1 prospect) numbers across seven Triple-A @indyindians starts after 8 punchouts Tuesday night:
?? 1.83 ERA
? 12.4 K/9
?? .183 BAA pic.twitter.com/zFZYji4u6Y— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) September 18, 2024
And, the well-attended final clip:
.@Bubbachandler_ is rolling.
5.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 8 K on 69 pitches, 51 strikes. pic.twitter.com/KTPSp9wj87
— Altoona Curve (@AltoonaCurve) September 8, 2023
Quite a turnout to see the Altoona Curve in that last clip. I had to quickly google to see if there was a pandemic in Altoona in 2023. There wasn’t from what I saw. Bubba Chandler’s Triple-A stats were mentioned in that 2nd clip, I won’t repeat them here. That was with a 3.4 BB/9. Chandler also saw velocity increases, up 1.4 MPH, and increased extension, while lowering his release height, and his speedball was already sitting 97. Goofy. His 87 MPH change has become a problem and his slider is a WIP, work in progress (acronyms aren’t great when you have to spell them out). When I watch his clips, I see a guy working hard. That’s not great either. These are quibbles. I’m just separating him from Skenes-like expectations.
Bubba Chandler just turned 22 years old and can be a dynamite number two. His command has me a little concerned. He looks like he could be a Hunter Greene-type who takes a little bit to find his MLB footing. Then you have to assume he’s going to start the year in the minors because: Pirates. Feels like a guy who will be a last-round selection in 12-team leagues, and maybe a higher flier (dude, I got rhymes!) in draft and holds, as we await his arrival. Skenes’s ETA was May 11th, so when is Bubba Chandler? Are you thinking May or June? What if I said Opening Day? Look at what the Pirates did with Jared Jones, starting him from the jump. The Pirates might see Skenes and think they want to save him for themselves and stall his arbitration, while Jones and Chandler are fine to start the year. That might not be the craziest thought. Going out on a limb but I say that’s what the Pirates do. That limb is like the extended arm of a 6’2″, 200-pound pitcher named Bubba. For 2025 fantasy baseball, I’ll give Bubba Chandler projections of 8-10/3.95/1.36/153 in 138 IP with a chance for more.
As a guy who took Skenes for $1 last year (we auction draft starting lineup and then reserves are a snake draft afterward – tons of good SP left there) — I am hoping to do the same this season with Painter
Nice!
Roki Sasaki!!!??? I’m in
Me too!
Good stuff Lothario de la Master! Looks like he could be a beast at some point. I will say, as you mention, control might be an issue.
Not that I know anything. It seems like in those first coupla clips, he missed his spots bigly…yet still got em to chase. Thinking big leaguers might be able to lay of some of those?
Yeah, he could struggle with command, which might just be the end of his value for this year…or the occasional roofie…He’s got big stuff tho
The Pirates should approach this like the 50 year storm. This is their one chance / window before these guys will get paid somewhere else. Maybe they should spend a little, get some offensive help and improve the bullpen just for a little bit. I am laughing as i say that.
The phrase hope spring eternal pops into my head until reality sets in.
That’s what I’m saying… Now is the time
Of course I could go back to the 2002 Cubs which seems more likely. They had Kerry Wood, Matt Clement and a young Mark Prior and Carlos Zambrano along with John Lieber who was pretty solid and finished 67-95
Mark Clement is such a fun throwback name, and Big Z beating up Gatorade containers
They claimed Trey Cabbage. What more do you want?
HA, when you put it like that
They can talk about Walker, miss like always, and go to their fallback in *checks notes* Vogelbach. Yeah. Makes sense. Cabbage can learn from him. .219 career BA to .209. A LOT TO LEARN.
Hahaha, that feels too accurate
Thats good. What’s even better is that I can look at the FA list and easily pick out who they’ll be targeting. They don’t shop at the nice store or even the discount one. You gotta look for the retreads and they don’t even need to be below average.
C – Gary Sanchez
1B – Joey Gallo
2B – Tim Anderson
SS – Nick Ahmed
3B – J.D. Davis
OF – Pham, M. Taylor, Kepler
SP – Flexen, M. Perez, Rea, Houser, Stripling
RP – Maton, Smyly, S. Miller, Ottavino, Graveman, Garrett, Matzek.
Look how nasty that roster is!
HAHAHA
With Shohei’s labrum surgery possibly impacting his power (maybe), pitching again and likely not stealing bases…who would you take #1 in 2025 for a standard roto?
Witt
add Neto as lower draft stock ….shoulder surgery might miss season start which probably means ASB.
Man, that sucks
Koosman’s rookie season was better than Seaver’s.
Wow, that was a helluva a season, I didn’t remember that one…Somehow Bench beat him out for ROY with 15 HRs and .275
Good lord, I know girls hair color changes their looks but homie went from “county jail for dealing meth” as a blonde, to add a stache and make brunette “Oh he is a pitcher. Skenes-lite even.”
HAHAHA, I don’t even know if that’s him, but I googled him, saw that pic and used it…I’m assuming it’s him
Top ROOKIE fantasy seasons from the Historical Pitchers Rater:
$40.50 Dwight Gooden 1984
$39.20 Fernando Valenzuela 1981
$32.10 Hideo Nomo 1995
$23.90 Jose Fernandez 2013
$22.50 Russ Ford 1910
$20.40 John Montefusco 1975
$20.30 Grover C. Alexander 1911
$20.00 Don Newcombe 1949
$19.80 Cy Blanton 1935
$19.50 Britt Burns 1980
$19.20 Kerry Wood 1998
$18.80 Mark Fidrych 1976 (97 Ks!!!)
$17.50 Roy Oswalt 2001
It doesn’t specify rookie seasons, so I probably missed some good ones. The page does not include 2024 yet.
I thought I had one in Fernandez, but you had him and I missed at first glance.
Was getting all uppidity as a Tigers fan thinking Verlander, but I checked and a lot fewer Ks than I thought.
Senga maybe has a shot? Not sure but seems close.
Brandon Webb though his line is kinda similar to Senga’s.
Shoemaker had a decent line.
I am assuming rookie relievers wouldnt do enough to make it? I had a couple names but figured wouldnt rank.
I cheated and asked my dad and only three names he came up with that werent mentioned were Larry Jansen (his dad talked about him), Dick Hughes, and John Matlack.
I think for sure one that should be on list, who I found by accident by reading about how great Gooden’s season was, is Herb Score. He had the K record for rookies prior to Gooden.
Nice. Score definitely. Would slot just ahead of Fernandez. Hughes matches Kerry Wood in value. Matlack and Jansen had great rookie seasons; not sure where they lost value.
I was just looking for SPs, but Wilcy Moore, who made 50 appearances (including 12 starts) in 1927, had a value of $55.40. A quick search uncovered
$24.00 Mark Eichhorn 1986
$23.30 Craig Kimbrel 2011
I imagine there are others.
Should point out, these are fantasy values and are affected by each pitcher in a given year. So, certain stats will have more value in certain years. For instance, 20 Wins and an ERA of 2.00 would be more valuable now than it was in 1968.
Wow, some great old timers in there. Good work gentlemen.
Would Street, Suzuki, and Feliz make it as RP?
edit: meant Sasaki
This is awesome! I didn’t remember Nomo…As mentioned above, Jerry Koosman’s rookie year was great too, wonder where that is
Also, shocked to see Fidrych that low, must be on the Ks
Also, as mentioned above, I did it off memory, so not bad for me!
I don’t even know who Russ Ford is
Not up on your 1910 Yankees, hey?
Koosman has a value of $17.30 since his rookie year was the year of the pitcher.
Ha, damn, that is so crazy…His year was insane…
Just looked at Koosman’s career stats — 222 wins, 3.36 ERA, 2556 Ks…he received less than 1% of the HOF vote and fell off ballot 1st year
I find it really unfortunate how both the MLB and NFL HOF votes have become.
I dont care if Terrell Owens took a duece on my car every morning and then TPd my house every holiday. Hell I didnt like him as a player because he did well vs my team and seemed like a blowhard. That means nothing with his performance on the field. Dude was a monster. First ballot, HOF. Antonio Gates leader in TD for all TE. Not in the hall either.
I feel like this came up with Sheffield, they didnt like him, and despite a higher WAR than BigMac and Sosa, 500HR/250SB and .292 BA, they basically went the no defense bad teammate route didnt suck off media route.
Ortiz is in. Cabrera will be in, and both are similar profiles.
Is the HOF running a beauty pageant and saying a girl didnt seem genuine when she smiled so docking points? Who cares if the player HATES the media, you arent having him over for dinner and he didnt invite your daughter to poundtown.
These clowns always do this and then get all pious and moralistic on their high horses. Just absurd.
Haha, I don’t know NFL at all…Sheffield is a disgrace tho…He was one of the most feared hitters in baseball…steroids allegations are very dumb too, bc Piazza and Pudge are both in and they were roided out of their eyeballs
glitch
hmm?
TL;DR version is TO had Bonds-esque personality. He was going to get in, but writers being pricks, he didnt make it in on 1st ballot as “punishment”. Nor 2nd attempt. They made him wait until 3rd year. Then lesser talents got in after him on 1st ballot. Just writers being pricks.
When he finally got in, he didnt go to HOF event, and snubbed them.
Longer version (worth a read for the “logic”):
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/terrell-owens-hall-of-fame-snub-reason-gary-myers-dan-patrick-show/192rxmysvsfo91pkvtmzhp2rje
Back to baseball, Sheffield seemed like only one who was truthful about roids. He came out and talked about some cream Bonds dude gave him and whether I was/am naive seemed to come off as legit. He was pissed about it. IIRC he only worked out with Bonds that year and didnt after it. Like you said if roided out even and he got wool over my eyes, still a HOF to me.
I remember I tried to emulate that batting stance, like i bet a ton of kids did. IDK how the hell he did it. Also, he initially didnt have it when he came up. I am not sure when it changed but man did I love it. Leave it to the hall to be pricks about some made up defense kxsqpfWAR stat and wont even give out a style point for that stance. BOOOOOO!
(I think the issue was brackets when I tried to quote the article and post? I thought it was post length at first.)
I see, I hate the whole “steroids keep guys out” argument…Especially if a guy never tested positive…Sheff should’ve been a 1st ballot guy, forget never getting in
Listen, only BASEBALL had steroid users. I agree, the best guys are left out on BS. Bonds is 100% a HOF. Media acting like they heros for keeping him out. Ii like how MLB pretends it all just stopped. Look we “test them” now, I guess no one uses them anymore *wink wink*.
Football never had that problem. Guys weighing 260 pounds with sub 5% body fat running 4.4. No sir. 100% Na-traw-all.
I always laugh when people think proathletes are clean. No way in hell.
Here are two perfectly normal HIGH SCHOOL kids at a track meet. Which one was getting scholarships, drafted in NFL, and was apparently born with the face of a 32 year old?
I find it funny how steroids weren’t tested for until 2003, but people have been trying to take supplements, illegal or otherwise, in baseball since the 1880s
But only a handful of guys were actually punished
Never forget Dee Gordon getting caught messed him up so bad he changed his name and left Miami.
Hahaha, yeah
Yeah that whole Balco thing and Congress BS. Ironic that it had a bunch of NFL/other sports/Olympic athletes but all I remember is baseball getting crapped on (correct me if wrong).
“Steroids? In MY baseball? What? HOW? No, no, good diet at 38 years old makes your head bigger! All that wisdom swelling the ole brain!”
I also find it funny people act like steroids or gear in general is just magic. “That guys is shredded because he is on roids!” Uh, no. He is shredded because he is busting his butt at the gym. Roids help with definition, size, etc., but you aint benching 350 after six months on roids. GTFO. Same with baseball players. Assuming Bonds didnt early in career, dude was a 30/30 guy every dang year. He was a legit great ball player before all of it.
One of the guys at my gym is always cycling. He will tell you it point blank. Cool ass dude, busting his ass in the gym, but when it gets close to competition time he has use gear to be competitive (in his opinion at least).
Always bugs me when people do that. “Gotcha! See! The roids!” Shit, let people get on that HGH, tren, clen, anavar, and some drex thrown in, and see you go to a bodybuilding comp. Or hit 70 HR, it aint all just the gear.
I also LOL when some of these guys act like they dont, be it Hollywood of bodybuilders. I remember Ben Affleck for Batman in some article, and it was how he got in “shape”. It was a clean diet, chicken, veggies, nuts, and he put on 25-30 pounds at 1600-2000 calories in 4 months or some bull. Then they told him to workout less because he was just getting too big at 240-250 from 190ish. Yeah. Jeez bodybuilders should try that! Just 4-6 months to put on muscle, 6-pack, and eat clean. Or, just be honest and say, “yeah, quick turn around so they roided me out the ass and I ate a ton while working out.”
Bonds was a HOFer before roids, but agree with you, there’s no magic elixir to help you hit a baseball…Steroids are not turning you into a great player…Also, remember when everyone was doing greenies or coke in the 80s and everyone stole 70 bags? Also, nothing says that whatever people are taking now won’t be ruled illegal in 10 years…Whatever supplement it is
Ball Four was my introduction to greenies. For a while I thought it was slang I didnt get for something in that time period and somewhere it clicked while reading lol. Ooooooooh.
I feel like testers always behind the guys using. No one wants to really catch anyone, because no on wants to ruin their sport. Otherwise, it would be testing everyone, every week.
Also, lets be real, if someone said, “I can have my doc prescribe xyz for you. It ISNT a steroid, but you will feel bigger, faster, stronger, recover quicker, etc….” why wouldnt you take it if there werent any side effects (allegedly) and it isnt banned?
Like you said, coke and LSD are banned. Of course what if you are a bit of a high strung type and need some weed or a couple shots of booze pregame. You play better that way….is it performance enhancing substance then?
Yeah, completely…Mantle was drunk every day, it’s fine, whatever, he was likely dealing with pain from his knee, but that’s something, right?…Keith Hernandez was on coke for the better part of the 70s and 80s, it’s fine, do you, but that’s something, right? All of these things, ya know?
Ah, gotcha…Good for him not going, that’s this BS
Ha! I thought it was “Whitey” Ford’s real name.
….which it isnt. His real name Edward Charles. Whitey was also called Slick and Chairman of the board…..so….yeah I dont know where his nickname came from…and he had nicknames for his nickname…..all Im saying is I dont know anything either.
Ha, Whitey was about 30 years later