So, I hinted at this in my Jasson Dominguez fantasy when I called him my top rookie for 2025 fantasy baseball. I said Itch gave me two rookies to choose from for the top 2025 fantasy baseball prospect and it was between a hitter and pitcher for him. He sided with Jackson Jobe. I went Jasson Dominguez, but he was not the hitter Itch gave me (I’ll get to who that was in the next day or so). After the season we just saw from Paul Skenes, I can’t say I completely hate the idea of a pitcher being the top rookie. Itch could be right and me, a belly-itcher. There was no top rookies who were pitchers in the last decade plus, prior to Skenes. Seems like every year the Braves put a Shroud of Touki on a rookie pitcher and they perform well — Ian Anderson anyone? By the by, Ian Anderson is now out of baseball and performing puppet shows at bar mitzvahs as The Great Touki Toussaint, and the real Touki sued him. What a mess, huh? Hope they can work it out. Any hoo! Rookie pitchers in the last decade? Maybe only Skenes reached that mountaintop, but there were some who were solid — Devin Williams was pretty sweet. I enjoyed Shota Imanaga. Kodai Senga the year before? Yamamoto? Yummers when healthy–Okay, all Asian imported pitchers. Sixto was once good, for a year. Dustin May was solid. Jesus Luzardo was great. Okay, so every rookie starter, who is not an import from Asian, overextends themselves their rookie season, and can’t pitch ever again. My point is Jackson Jobe has the odds against him to be the top rookie for 2025 fantasy baseball, but, since the Tigers have already called him up, he’s over that, the most pesky of hurdles, will he break camp? (By the by, the pesky hurdle is not a pole. Weird, right?) With that hurdle behind Jobe, I’m absolutely interested. So, what can we expect from Jackson Jobe for 2025 fantasy baseball?
First off, let’s look at some Jackson Jobe highlights (see ya on the other side!):
Jackson Jobe, hello!
This changeup is staggering.
First big league strikeout for MLB’s top-ranked pitching prospect.@tigers | @MLB pic.twitter.com/YDcwRrkzUz
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) September 28, 2024
I admittedly gasped after that. Here’s another:
After striking out 81 batters in 73 2/3 innings at Double-A, Jackson Jobe is bringing more whiffs to the highest level of the Minors.
MLB’s top pitching prospect (@tigers) unleashes a nasty changeup to pick up his first K for the Triple-A @MudHens: pic.twitter.com/wErrH7piN3
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) September 14, 2024
Okay, fair to ask why is that change working so well. Here ya go:
Jackson Jobe, 101 mph, 102 mph and 101 mph. ? pic.twitter.com/kGG3fDwPvp
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 12, 2024
Go home, bro, you’re sick, and might be contagious. I usually stick to the Rule of Three for the clips, but I need to show one more:
Jackson Jobe, Unfair 3 Pitch K Sequence.
96mph Cutter & 2 86mph changeups.
Simply mind-blowing stuff from this 21 year old. ? pic.twitter.com/k0S6pd3d8t
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 12, 2024
Goofy. Now, for the less good, or at least confusing, he wasn’t that good in Double-A. In 73 2/3 IP, he had a 9.9 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9. I wouldn’t want that in the majors, forget Double-A. The ERA was fine (1.95), but that was off a .227 BABIP. My guess is you throw that nasty and no one is making solid contact, so the BABIP isn’t entirely lucky. He only allowed two homers in Double-A for a 0.24 HR/9, because no one was squaring him up. He might’ve been working on stuff, or rather “his stuff.” That’s why I wouldn’t put a ton on his numbers.
No one is going to be Skenes, so this is unfair, but he had something like a 15+ K/9 in the minors. If Jobe is 9.9 K/9 in Double-A is he 7.8-8.2 K/9 in the majors? That would be my guess, which is a bit bleh. Since the stuff is impossible to barrel, he should be fine for an Ian Anderson type rookie year, which was great. Ian went 8.7 K/9, 3.58 ERA in 128 1/3 IP. That doesn’t mean puppet shows are in Jobe’s future either. I’m just saying please do not expect Skenes. There is only one Skenes. He is the 2nd best starter in all of baseball after one year. That’s abnormal. No one else is doing that in the immediate future. If Jobe gets hit in Spring Training, he might not even break camp. That is likely only at a 10% possibility, but it’s there. I don’t see Tarik Skubal, part 2, i.e., Tworik Deuxbal. I see Ian Anderson, part 2, call him Iam Jobe. For 2025, I’ll give Jackson Jobe projections of 8-8/3.47/1.29/122 in 134 IP with a chance for more.
Grey, on a NL keeper league, I have the first pick in 2025 and hope that Crochet comes to the NL to take him. I am loaded with right handed arms, Skenes, Jones and Peralta with two more coming back from TJ surgery Eury Perez and Andrew Painter. What do you think?
Hate to burst your bubble but White Sox would have to be crazy to trade him in the offseason
Tho, they are kinda crazy, so…maybe?
I saw Albies hugging Freeman on Friday. How could he afford to go to the World Series? He is more underpaid than I am.
HAHAHA, that is very funny
Yeah I saw ticket prices. Lowest resale ticket was $1030 for Friday. Damn
Ha, yeah, I’m watching from my couch
i thought Ian Anderson plays a flute and fronts a band
HAHA, He does that too…Busy guy!
Tull was outstanding back in my day
I’ve said it before, MLB is clueless. Who is the dolt who thought it was a good idea to schedule a game today and go up against MNF? The NFL has 93 of this year’s top 100 broadcasts as of last week. Both teams had to travel across the country anyway. It is moronic.
Agreed…It’s wait for one more day and have Tuesday to yourself…it’s so obvious
The masterminds probably did not want to have a Game 7 on Sunday against NFL.
Haha, that’s some galaxy brain stuff, but maybe
A Monday afternoon game seven between these teams would do numbers
Yeah, as long as the time works for Japan
One thing i don’t like seeing is a pitcher with a projected whip of 1.2 or higher. That scares me. An elevated walk rate and babip luck means more baserunners which generally is bad for a starting pitcher. Whip is still a category too. I think I am out.
I don’t blame you, I think the stuff looks great, but the results thus far have not looked as good as others
I don’t my mind taking chances later in drafts on pitchers who underperformed or seeking out undervalued guys like wacha, etc. Rookie pitchers are really hard for me. I say that but got skenes this year. He was a unicorn though. I guess I am still biased towards hitters and chasing that upside as long as the draft price doesn’t get super inflated.
Skenes was a unicorn, absolutely…Jobe looks excellent tho, but more like a number 3 fantasy SP solid this year with upside vs. a number #1
He looks like an interesting flyer. Nice write up. FYI, I’m doing my first 2025 slow draft currently and he went #247, just ahead of Jeffrey Springs and Michael Wacha.
Thanks! Wow, that seems late…Where did Dominguez go?
Jasson went #140.
Was he the top rookie off the board?
Six picks after Crews.
okay, I wasn’t off in my thinking….Sounds like there’s no real consensus on the top rookie but others either then
He went at the end of an OF run that was preceded by Nimmo, Meadows, Crews, Happ, J. Lowe for what it’s Werth.
I like Dominguez there…Where did Roman Anthony go?
The same manager drafted Anthony #236.
Wow, so Dominguez was the first rookie off the board?
2nd behind Crews
Gotcha, thanks! any big surprises in the draft?
Not too many. Some guys fell really far from years past. Darvish looked good in playoffs so i grabbed him #228. Starling Marte #348. If you think the Dodgers closer will be someone besides Kopech you can get him cheap. You can definitely wait to draft a 2B. Got Gleybar #227 with Gimenez still on the board. Rafaela seemed like a pretty good grab at #203.
228! Wow, that’s great value even if you only get 100 IP….Marte’s a fine gamble there…Gleyber at 227 is nuts…Ceddanne! Wow, these are insane value
Yeah, I went in not so much targeting guys, but values. That seems to work better. I’m trying to avoid much thought about “strategy” other than not loading too heavily in any category or position. Thats hard to do anyway in NFBC.
Sounds like it’s working…Who was your first SP and price?
I had pick 12 and did the unholy deed of taking Skenes! I know what youre thinking but I am getting over sone serious pitching trauma from 2024.
Ha, if there’s one SP to take, it’s him or Skubal, I guess…But yeah I wouldn’t have
I was trying to be too cute last year and my many shares of Braxton Garrett, John Means, Reese Olson, Kutter Crawford, Merrill Kelly, Mackenzie Gore was painful. It seemed brilliant to me at the time. Not so much in hindsight.
My others picks of Hunter Brown at 84 and Bibee at 108, Grey’s-son Rodriguez 133 will hopefully be better.
That’s fair, they were brutal…I like those others!
Thanks!
No problem!