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There’s so many pitchers to choose form after the top 100 overall that it’s slightly nuts. Clearly, I don’t have time to go over all of them. [pushes finger on earbud] I’m being I told I do have time, when I go over my rankings, which start on Monday, the 20th, or they’re already available on the Patreon for ten smackers. Holy schnikes! Let’s freakin’ go! [does a well-choreographed dance, ends in a split] Someone help me up. Seriously, not joking, I can’t feel my leg. So, about Brandon Pfaadt, his numbers are so crazy we’re gonna need to take a nap before starting. [shuts eyes, five seconds later, opens eyes and claps hands] Let’s go! Love me a power nap, almost as much as Pfaadt stats: 9.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9. Okay, absolutely. Everything that’s happening there. Nothing else to see really. Let’s call it a wrap, put some pita around it and eat up! [intern whispers in ear] Nah, I don’t think I want to mention his ERA. No, I am absolutely not mentioning his 5.06 ERA in 277 2/3 career innings. Never happening. Hey, intern, I literally just fired you for mentioning it and trying to trick me into saying it aloud so the readers could hear me. Pack your stuff in a bandana, tie it to a stick and jump on a train without paying because I just saw the movie, Blitz–Crap, you’re reading this aren’t you? So, what can we expect from Brandon Pfaadt for 2025 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Brandon Pfaadt’s 5.06 ERA in 277 2/3 career innings is so funny. To think that’s a sleeper. Last year, his ERA was 4.71. Ha, improvement! It gets even more hilarious. His September ERA was 7. That’s not a typo. It’s not 5.07 and, like a guido losing his Mustang in a parking lot, I did not forgot the 5.0. That is 7.00. Wait, it was better in August, he had an ERA of 6.04! Honestly, this is the most hilarious post I could’ve ever finished the fantasy baseball sleepers with. Was Kyle Hendricks ranked too high to be a sleeper? Pfaadt’s 2nd half ERA was 5.93 in 68 1/3 IP! That’s Pfaacking terrible. So, there is a reason why he’s being drafted around 200th overall, but there’s also reason why we’re here.

Not sure I’ve seen someone as unlucky of Brandon Pfaadt, and everything below the hood took metaphorical huge steps forward, while being masked by terrible ERAs. He had the 18th best K-BB% last year and there’s zero guys in the top 20 who are of no interest, though Nick Pivetta does tend to star in The Rise of the Ulcers. There’s problems with xFIP, but Pfaadt was 25th best in the league, tied with George Kirby. The big problem with xFIP is the HR/9. It assumes a guy should give up less (or more) homers, as if they’re not responsible for allowing ding-dongs. I don’t love that, but there is something to: Guy with excellent command should give up less homers because you’d think they’d know how to pinpoint their pitches to avoid the dongers. Let’s just say conceptually a guy who gives up no walks, has huge prospect pedigree, can induce a lot of Ks and was unlucky reads to me like a recipe for success:

1 tbs of Command
1 cup of Ks–

Okay, you get my point. Last year his ground balls went way up, not literally, and his fly balls came down, literally, so, again, unless he’s being hit incredibly hard, there’s something not adding up. Was he hit hard? He was the 31st best at limiting Hard Contact. He was 10th worst for Medium Contact, and 43rd for Line Drive Rate, so there’s some concern. I think this is a sequencing issue.

Different sites judge pitches differently (which is dumb, but for another day). Brandon Pfaadt’s sweeper aka slider is excellent. Only one pitcher throws it more (Houck), but look at this goofiness:

Brandon Pfaadt’s Sweeper has a .215 BAA, an xBA of .200 (!), only hit 31.6% of the time “Hard” and a 36.2% Whiff. Its run value is -10! I’m sorry, what? (Run Value Definition: The run impact of an event based on the runners on base, outs, ball and strike count.) That wasn’t what I was what’ing! (Sorry.) I sorted by all pitches Whiff% and the closet to his 36.2 and a -10 Run Value was Matt Waldron’s knuckleball. Come on. This is nuts. .260 BABIP on a sweeper, which is high in itself. Just think about it logically, how could a guy with that good of a Whiff% get rocked like that without insane bad luck? That will right itself.

To recap before we’re out of here: Brandon Pfaadt is in his third year and has been better each year. He was unlucky last year with one of the best pitches that produced nothing. To highlight what can be: In September, when he had that 7.00 ERA, he also had a start vs. the Brewers of 7 IP, 0 ER, 12 Ks and zero walks. Another start of 5 2/3 IP, 10 Ks (2 BBs), another of 5 1/3 IP, 9 Ks (1 BB). This is getting granular, but one start of 1 2/3 IP, 8 ER, ruined his September. Pfaadt’s breakout is in plain sight and being obscured by so much unlucky, random stats that should be ignored. Do not ignore a guy who could be on the verge of one of the biggest breakouts in baseball. For 2025, I’ll give Brandon Pfaadt projections of 12-7/3.72/1.14/191 in 187 IP with a chance for much more.

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Lee
Lee
27 days ago

Hey Grey,

Can’t wait for this years rankings. How much would you allocate to keep Pfaadt in normal auction keeper league?

Rob C
Rob C
Reply to  Grey
14 days ago

I have the same question 7 keepers per team ..10 teams $100 cap all is at a $1 interval

AntiScioscia
AntiScioscia
27 days ago

Hey Grey! Any thoughts on the CBS “experts” Busts 1.0 post that came out a few days back? To save you the time, these are their early bust predictions…

Sale, DeGrom, Adames, Doyle, Vientos, Steer, Turang, Pepiot, Rafaela, Kerry Carpenter, Luis Gil, Taj Bradley

AntiScioscia
AntiScioscia
Reply to  Grey
26 days ago

That was my thinking – pretty easy calls for the most part. I guess Gil is maybe a medium take?

The only guy here that really impacts me is Doyle because he’s a potential keeper in my big league. I am definitely waffling hard on him because his Statcast is really ugly, and he obviously was horrible on the road but he also hit more HR on the road than in Coors and that freaks me out. His rookie year, he was better on the road than in Coors which is also freaky.

Long way of saying that it might be hard to choose between Doyle ($5) and Vinnie P ($12) for me. But VP looked poopy in the playoffs and need to see him look not poopy in spring training. I just can’t quit the idea that his early career looks so similar to Tino Martinez, and I don’t wanna miss on that breakout Age 27 season where Tino hit 31 bombs and 111 RBI – in the worst hitters’ park in baseball.

AntiScioscia
AntiScioscia
Reply to  Grey
26 days ago

kind of have to at the price

J.R.
J.R.
27 days ago

Is there a more baffling offseason for a team that could contend than the Mariners?

Last 7 days claimed or traded for:
Tyler Jay
Hagen Danner
Donovan Solano
Miles Mastrobuoni
Blake Hunt

Other than that flurry of activity I think only thing else they did was sign Pomeranz, Fleming, and Nottingham to minors deals.

J.R.
J.R.
Reply to  J.R.
27 days ago

Obligatory:

Screenshot_20250115-140156
J.R.
J.R.
Reply to  Grey
27 days ago

I wonder if they got that mid-2010s Astros deal going on. Remember the leaked info and their crazy demands?

“[Luhnow] talked to [Marlins GM Dan Jennings] and said we had interest in Stanton. DJ said he doesn’t think he’ll trade Stanton and the only deal he could think of from us that would work would be Springer and Correa. JL said that would not work. JL posited a deal around Cosart and Deshields.”

or

When he wanted Bundy or Gausman (or both?) for Bud Norris? Hilariously they only got LJ Hoes (great name) and some Josh Hader dude who they jettisoned to MIL in a package for Mike Fiers and Carlos Gomez.

Maybe SEA pulling the give us your #2, #3 and #5.

We need pitching. Who do we get back?

Haniger and Dylan Moore.

*call ends*

Hello? Hellllo?

Joed1414
Joed1414
Reply to  Grey
26 days ago

I wonder if no one likes hitting in Seattle and it’s a nonstarter in contract negotiations. Except Victor Robles sometimes Julio and Edgar Martinez…..

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
27 days ago

Your list of sleepers…to quote David Letterman, “Once again, Paul, you’ve crystalized my thoughts.”

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  Grey
27 days ago

need to get a draft in early and grab these guys with winter pricing.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  OaktownSteve
27 days ago

any razz drafts coming up? NFBC auction again this year? was a fun one.

frankgrimes
Reply to  Grey
27 days ago

Ohtani $70!

frankgrimes
27 days ago

Jordan Walker league winner!

I am the walrus
I am the walrus
27 days ago

What’s your confidence level that Baty can make even a moderate impact?

I am the walrus
I am the walrus
Reply to  I am the walrus
27 days ago

Like league average bat for a 3B?

Jacob
Jacob
27 days ago

I’m in a holds+saves league. I found that holds are not sticky from year to year. I check from 2023 to 2024 and again from 22 to 23 and only about 26% of relievers held any value from yr to yr. So it seems drafting for holds in a fools errand. But saves seems way more sticky. So the moral seems to be draft a couple closers and get any holds you need on waivers.

J.R.
J.R.
Reply to  Jacob
27 days ago

Maybe those holds guys need more sticky stuff like closers

Screenshot_20250115-135209
LenFuego
LenFuego
28 days ago

I cannot find a menu bar item where all the Sleeper and Rookie posts (and other posts so far for 2025) are collected for easy access. Will that get put together when the Rankings start getting posted?

LenFuego
LenFuego
Reply to  Grey
28 days ago

Great, thanks!

AdamH
AdamH
Reply to  Grey
28 days ago

Is it me or is there no working link for sleepers? I see it there but it’s not linked.

toolshed
28 days ago

Pfaadt is a guy who I’ve been interested in for a while since he consistently showed the ability to go 6+ ip in the minors and has shown good control.

I think his issue is kind of a chicken and egg thing. He used to give up the long ball and has given up more runs than we’d like. Maybe this is due to him hanging out in the zone too much. The ability to go deeper into games also could be part of the problem as he gets tired and misses spots. Third time though the order has been an issue. That good game through 5 innings can be quickly wrecked. Put a guy on base, locate poorly, HR, or bullpen comes in Pf’s him, etc. His era ends up being higher than it should be or his xfip stands out.

toolshed
Reply to  Grey
28 days ago

Yeah he definitely has the tools. Just needs to make the adjustment. After a rough start in his rookie year, he ended up being their best pitcher in the playoffs in 2023. The key there he was pulled in 5th and 6th inning and pitch count didn’t creep up.

Last edited 28 days ago by toolshed
J.R.
J.R.
Reply to  Grey
28 days ago

As a non-owner were/are people down on him the way he finished? I knew he had a rough month but had flashes. I probably had him undervalued all year honestly.

J.R.
J.R.
Reply to  Grey
28 days ago

Ahhhh well I figured out the issue. Was mentally mixing him up with Ryne Nelson aa far as results.

J.R.
J.R.
28 days ago

I am mildly amused by this bachelor-esque Roki situation. He is down to just 3 contestants, who will he choose? He of course leaves that one girl (Toronto) that makes no sense compared to other options so he can appear not shallow. “We have the bombshell blondes and the tattooed goth girl with the deep personality.”

J.R.
J.R.
Reply to  Grey
28 days ago

Interesting tidbit. I just figured with no Mets, Rangers, Yankees, why Toronto still in it? I dont have intl money in front of me so maybe they have more than I think.

Dodgers still seem the destination unless Padres sell him on….being an underdog?

As you said, it never happens and not sure how Toronto can be more appealing (on the baseball side) than the others.

J.R.
J.R.
Reply to  Grey
28 days ago

Is there not any incentives/shorter deal to hit FA or is that all pretty much the same? I know it is Intl $ they can only spend on him so it all seems hard to offer “more”? (if I understand it which I might not)

J.R.
J.R.
Reply to  Grey
28 days ago

“Bro it is great! They give you all this free money for opening a betting account! Here let me give you my referral code….”

Joed1414
Joed1414
Reply to  Grey
26 days ago

Imagine they got Imanaga instead of Yamamoto. Then they’d have a better pitcher than both of them.

shagging_flies
shagging_flies
28 days ago

What’s a better value? MLB rosters, H2H 12 team league, salary cap of $300:
Matt Olson: $40
Spencer Steer: $30.50
Thanks and have a great day!

Scott
Scott
28 days ago

Grey
Belated Happy New Years.

In a 12 team standard $260 roto for 2025 only who would you keep:
Ragans $17
Hensley $10

Already keeping Mason Miller $1

Dr Sauce
Dr Sauce
28 days ago

These posts are gold!! Won my league last year with your ‘sleeper’ arms from these posts!!

Quick questions: keep forever league, who do you prefer: Ohtani or Acuna? This is a weekly league; Ohtani can be used as a hitter or pitcher, however I have to declare one or the other at lineup lock for the week. My keepers are good enough to be able to manage Acuna being out for the beginning of the year.

Thanks

bmkhawk
bmkhawk
28 days ago

Sort of seems like when Pfaadt has a feel for his sweeper, he can be untouchable. But when he doesn’t, he gets crushed. The question is whether he can limit those bad days.

Tom
Tom
Reply to  Grey
28 days ago

As someone who watched every Pfaadt start, 100% agree that has been one of unluckiest in baseball and due for a big year. One thing I will say, his sweeper’s contact profile is an extreme PULLED FLY BALL profile, and with xWOBA not taking direction into account, led to (justifiably) more HR than xWOBA can account for

Huffin Gas
Huffin Gas
Reply to  Grey
27 days ago

That, or Manfred can’t stop sneaking around ballparks in the middle of the night messing with humidors. Maybe Pfaadt was victim of the Manfred Menace on a very unlucky basis. Should even out.

Chucky
Chucky
28 days ago

Keeper league trade
Casas for Royce?

Hutch
Hutch
28 days ago

Thanks for the great content! Thoughts on this trade
Bohm-Flahrity-Tyler Fitzgerald and Jonah Tong for Goldy-Altuve and Dalton Rushing…18 team dynasty 6×6 thank you!

Vacation
Vacation
28 days ago

Grey,

Standard roto 5×5 11 team league. Keep for ever league (no auction $ or draft slot tied to keepers) but we limited to 6 players per year. Pick 6 out of the following:

Acuna
Riley
Harris II
Albies
Lindor
Olson
Duran (OF)
Sale
Strider

Ace of Spades
Ace of Spades
29 days ago

Grey

14 team mixed standard cats auction ( $260 ) can keep up to 11.

Was offered S.Steer $12 and M Ozuna $8 for my C Bellinger $17 and S Lugo $3

I initially turned this down because I sense a big year from Cody and Lugo at $3 is a bargain. However, after mulling over the projections of both you and Rudy, I am wondering if I should go back and revisit.

Your thoughts?

As always thanks in advance and stay safe

fivepoundbass
fivepoundbass
29 days ago

Thank you for doing the digging on the expected stats. Pet peeve of mine is when people just say a guy was lucky or unlucky because a BABIP was high or low. Sometimes there is a valid reason. Other times, luck is involved. It is just lazy (and far too common) for “experts” to treat players like robots from an assembly line and assume they are all supposed to do the same thing, and you never do that.

Snacks
Snacks
29 days ago

I like Pfaadt, he was a decent spot start last season, good call!

Norman Ginsberg
Norman Ginsberg
29 days ago

When do 2025 ratings begin on Razzball?

Shagging_flies
Shagging_flies
Reply to  Norman Ginsberg
29 days ago

In the first paragraph, Grey says the 20th. Or you can get them now on Patreon.